Topic: Nintendo Expects Wii U to Sell 8.5 Million Units in Six Months

[NWR_Neal]

The Wii outsold the Wii U worldwide over the past six months. Down is up; up is down.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/35840

Nintendo expects Wii U system sales to total 9 million over the 2014 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014. With sales only totaling 460,000 in the first half of the year, that means from October 1 to March 31, more than 8.5 million Wii Us must be sold to reach the company's expectations.

Additionally, over the course of the past six months, the Wii actually outsold the Wii U worldwide, with Nintendo's past home console selling 470,000 units during that time. The only region where the Wii U outsold the Wii was Japan.

In brighter news, the 3DS sold strongly worldwide, falling just shy of the 4 million units sold mark from April 2013 to September 2013. However, it is a drop-off from the 5 million units sold from April 2012 to September 2012. See below for the regional breakdown for each console:

	Wii U Sales	Wii Sales	3DS Sales	DS/DSi Sales
North America	230,000	280,000	1,170,000	60,000
Japan	230,000	40,000	1,800,000	-0
Other	-10,000	150,000	930,000	40,000
Total	460,000	470,000	3,890,000	100,000

[Leo13]

That would be awesome! I hope they're right, but I don't claim to be an expert.

[ShyGuy]

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

[Miyamoto]

Nintendo's forecasts just shows how clueless and out of touch they are. Time for radical changes in the home console division methinks, starting with offering consumers the same choice and value for money as the competition. I honestly believe that it is ultimately cynicism and greed that has led Nintendo to their current position.

[Adrock]

I honestly believe that it is ultimately cynicism and greed that has led Nintendo to their current position.

I'd say paranoia more than anything. They were so hush hush about the GamePad and Sony still found a way to copy the basic functionality. It's not the same, but all that secrecy ultimately did way more harm than good.

Anyway, I don't think Nintendo is reaching nine million units by April. Maybe if they had Mario Kart 8. Moving Donkey Kong to February spaces out the releases and at least gives them something between the Christmas season and the end of the fiscal year. My guess is seven (maybe eight) million units. Super Mario 3D World will give Wii U a nice boost as will the upcoming NSMBU/NSLU bundle (though it should have come with Nintendo Land too).

[KITT 10K]

I don't know if they can reach they are saying but I hope that they can and do.

[the asylum]

If Nintendo is this out of touch with reality, I guess this really means that new F-Zero is off the table for good

[chilenozo]

The Nintendo 2014 forecast was made back in April 2013...they decided not to revise those numbers this time, but I think this is internal politics more than blind confidence.

[Luigi Dude]

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

[Kytim89]

A new pokemon game for the Wii U would get them atleast twelve million units sold.

[nickmitch]

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

But this year they've got more competition. That's gotta be a factor. Plus, Nintendo is still having some marketing issues with the Wii U and the XB1 and PS4 are already starting to eat up the mindshare.

[Pixelated Pixies]

They MAY be able to do 9 million units in total, 4.5 million units over the next six months would still be a challenge.

Nintendo always get a huge boast in sales during the holiday so 4.5 million in that period is pretty doable.  Last year they sold 3 million Wii U during the holiday at $350 and the only major title being NSMB U.  Well this holiday the system will be $300 with NSMB U bundled with it, along with the Luigi DLC included.  Combined with more major titles like Mario 3D World, I think they'll be able to do at least 5 million during this time.

But this year they've got more competition. That's gotta be a factor. Plus, Nintendo is still having some marketing issues with the Wii U and the XB1 and PS4 are already starting to eat up the mindshare.

I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.
 
In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.
 
I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.
 
Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.
 
I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

[Luigi Dude]

I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.
 
In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.
 
I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.
 
Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.
 
I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.


Plus the sales of Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and NSMB 2 show that most Mario fans haven't bought a Wii U yet.  Mario 3D Land had already sold over 8 million by the end of March while NSMB U was only over 2 million.  Now I'm not saying all 8 million current owners of 3D Land will go out and buy Wii U's by the end of March 2014, but it does show that's there's still a larger market that Nintendo's Wii U holiday lineup will appeal that haven't bought the system yet.  Might not be enough to get them to reach their goal, but I think it'll be enough to get them at least over 5 million more units sold.

[Adrock]

I think PS4 or One will have strong launches, but outside of the early adopter crowd, I expect most people to stick with PS3/360 for a while. The new consoles won't drop off as much as Wii U did; I just don't see them carrying the launch momentum throughout 2014. It also doesn't help that Microsoft has struggled with their message and Sony has hit some hurdles with a couple delays and the DLNA thing.

That said, Nintendo's problem isn't Sony/Microsoft. If Nintendo doesn't hit their sales target, it will be because they dropped the ball so entirely during the first half of this year and playing catch up is never fun. In the long run, I think Nintendo will ultimately be fine with sales that make them money even if they are underwhelming (like GameCube). Recovering from their slow start just makes them look worse than they actually are.

[broodwars]

So Nintendo expects to sell 8.5 million Wii Us on the backs of a 3D Mario game (which never sell as well as their lazy 2D counterparts, no matter how good they are) and Donkey Kong Country Banana Slamma (I have no faith that Mario Kart is going to make it out in time). Yeah...good luck with that, especially with only Nintendo software to sell the Wii U (CoD and Assassin's Creed belong to the other consoles).  The only real question is whether Nintendo is going to be off on their projections by 1-2 million or 4-5 million.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'm guessing that this is another decimal point misplacement, on Nintendo's behalf this time.

It's nice to want things, but they must have meant .85 Million over the next 6 months right?

either way, good luck to them. If there is anyone that can pull a rabbit tied to a money tree out of a hat, it's gotta be Nintendo.

[NWR_Neal]

So Nintendo expects to sell 8.5 million Wii Us on the backs of a 3D Mario game (which never sell as well as their lazy 2D counterparts, no matter how good they are) and Donkey Kong Country Banana Slamma (I have no faith that Mario Kart is going to make it out in time). Yeah...good luck with that, especially with only Nintendo software to sell the Wii U (CoD and Assassin's Creed belong to the other consoles).  The only real question is whether Nintendo is going to be off on their projections by 1-2 million or 4-5 million.

Not saying it'll make a huge dent, but Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club *might* help sell systems. Maybe.

The 8.5 million in six months claim is absurd to me. I could see 5 million, maybe. I'm rooting for Nintendo, but damn, I can't see this happening.

[Adrock]

Oh, I read this wrong. I thought Nintendo wanted to sell nine million units total as in since launch, not the fiscal year. Yeah, I don't see that happening. I think seven or eight million lifetime sale by the end of the fiscal year is doable.

[Leo13]

Don't forget Wii Fit/Wii Fit Plus combined Sold 43 million copies. Wii Fit U could be a smash hit if it's any good that might finally be what Nintendo needs.

[ShyGuy]

They really need to be shoving Wii Fit U down people's throats.

[Pixelated Pixies]

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.

I don't think I agree that the market is as differentiated as you suggest, but let's say you're correct and the PS4 and XBone appeal to a completely different audience than the Wii U. I still think the launch of both consoles will have a noticeable detrimental impact on Wii U sales. Not only will the launch of these new consoles drown out Nintendo's messaging among 'casuals' this holiday season, they will also imbibe much of the disposable cash in the entertainment market generally.
 
Personally? I think the competition between Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft has never been more direct. The audience for gaming generally is expanding, but the audience for gaming focused consoles is only going to shrink. I do think Nintendo continue to be capable of offering something unique and interesting, but I highly doubt that more Mario is the answer.
 
That's just my take though. I ain't no analyst!

[Mop it up]

If this wasn't miscommunication, then yeah, there's no way they're going to sell 8.5 million units over the next six months. I'm not even sure the Wii sold that well. However, 9 million in grand total by April seems feasible, especially with this lineup. They just need to do a good job of advertising things, but I think games like Super Mario 3D World, Mario and Sonic Olympics, Wii Fit/Party/Sports, and others will sell well if people are aware of them all.

[shingi_70]

I have to agree with Shyguy and Nickmitch.
 
In a normal year, Nintendo might have met these sales expectations. Nintendo typically pull in great numbers during the holidays. This year, however, both Playstation 4 and Xbox One are expected to sell out at launch, and both companies are reported to have pretty solid production yields. That means there is going to be a bunch of new consoles out there for people to buy, which sucks a not insignificant amount of money out of the market.
 
I also think Nintendo already played the Mario card when they launched the system with NSMB U, and as a result many of those people who were interested in playing a Mario game already own a Wii U. The packing in of NSMB U, Luigi U, and the bundling of SM3DW will definitely boost sales, but as good as those games might be I don't see them bringing in the numbers that Nintendo need.
 
Whether or not Nintendo cares to acknowledge it, it is competing with Microsoft and Sony directly for people's dollars/pounds/euros, and the launch of these new consoles just means increased competition.
 
I of course hope Nintendo meets, and in fact exceeds, these expectations, but I'm dubious.

This thing is Microsoft and Sony are aiming at a completely different audience.  Nintendo's aiming at family's this holiday while Microsoft and Sony are going after the 18-34 year old male audience.  Not many families are going to spent over $400 to buy a PS4 or One when they can get a Wii U for at least $100 cheaper with two Mario games bundled, and other titles that appeal to kids like Mario 3D World, Sonic Lost World, and Mario & Sonic at the Olympics.

But won't that crowd just opt for a Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 both of which are cheaper and have superior software library's and bundles.

[smallsharkbigbite]

Or they could just opt for a ps4 or xbox 1.

I think 10 years ago the expectation was that 30-40 year olds don't game and the video game console was for the kids. Now I think most 30-40 year olds play video games.  If you want a ps4/xboxone it's an easy justification to pick that up for your gaming and then pick up some family specific games for the kids rather than spend another 300 for the Wii U. Yeah it's not as fun as Mario but there are buches of kinect games or Sly collection or whatever. Nintendo doesn't own family gaming. Plus most 30-40 year olds grew up in the ps1 era as children and want nastolgically to give those games to their children.

[Leo13]

I grew up in the PS1/2 era, but we never had either. PS3 was the first Playstation I ever owned, but I've owned SNES, N64 and Gamecube so when I want to show my kids my childhood and memories I do it on my Wii U. Personally I still enjoy Mario and Zelda and Donkey Kong more than COD Assassins Creed and Battlefield