Author Topic: Sell millions, still a failure?  (Read 17857 times)

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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #25 on: March 29, 2013, 10:11:52 PM »
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Offline broodwars

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #26 on: March 29, 2013, 10:13:44 PM »
Is it a question of sales vs expectations or sales vs. budget?

I do believe I asked that very question very early on in this thread... :cool;

It's Square-Enix trying to blame the West for one major Western game and two minor ones not being able to bail them out from the colossal debt they created with the disaster known as Final Fantasy 14 Online (not to mention several notable projects they just won't get out the door like Vs. 13).  As Giant Bomb put it, Eidos has held up their end of the bargain ever since they were acquired. It's the Japanese side of Square-Enix that consistently fails.
 
« Last Edit: March 29, 2013, 10:16:30 PM by broodwars »
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Offline Do_What

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2013, 09:30:58 AM »
NPD still doesn't have EXACT sales numbers. There is still some fudgework going on where they look at shipping stuff and do some sampling out because unless ever retailer was hooked into a live inventory database that NPD had access too you just can't know. Not only that, but there are some outlets that don't report to NPD. So it further muddies the waters.
The sales stuff is all estimates, both in games and in movies. Most entertainment mediums have the problem of not knowing how much of the product actually gets to consumers, most publishers only have access to how much product they put out.
I don't think Square is putting all their failings on western games. Those just happen to be the biggest named releases they've had recently. Just thinking about the titles I've heard of it's been Hitman, sleeping dogs, ffxiii ii, and tomb raider. I think they expected the western stuff to do better than it did and it is a disappointment to them. Square is fully aware of how jacked up ffxiv. But that's not as important to them right now. Companies with investors run on a stupid quarterly mindset and so they literally only care about what happened most recently. Most recently, Tomb Raider didn't sell as many copies as they expected, even after they spent more money on marketing than they had for any of their previous western made titles. They're bummed. It's a failure. But they're experiencing what happened to PC games about ten years ago. PC games were selling as well as they ever had, the sales weren't dropping at all on PC games, but console games took a leap in sales that the industry didn't really expect. PC games never followed suit so we kept talking about how they were dying, when they were just not keeping up.
We're going to see more and more of this next gen. Certain titles will push sales well beyond what we're used too, and other companies will attempt to match that and end up failing miserably. Except that if they had tried to make a very similar game with slightly less cash and slightly less expectations they'd be fine. If the industry as a whole doesn't look at sales estimates and start talking about how everything is failing in a certain segment just because it's not keeping pace with the few titles that are well above average, then we'll be okay. If they do what they are want to do and judge every game by the outliers then we're going to continue having discussions about how selling millions of copies of a game isn't good enough.
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Offline TJ Spyke

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2013, 11:22:05 AM »
NPD is reliable because they track about 90% of all retailers.

And movie ticket sales are exact.
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Offline ymeegod

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2013, 01:09:00 PM »
90% LOL.

NPD only tracks over 900 retailers WW and there's over one million retailers in the states alone.  Since last year NPD has added Walmart but there's plenty of video game chains that don't report to NPD like Fry, Gamerush, ect.   

Do What statement is correct, they estimate video game sales.  No one can give you an exact number because there's tons of chains out there that don't bother to share their numbers. 


Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2013, 01:22:05 PM »
NPD doesn't track 90% of retailers, they track 90% of sales.

Between Walmart, GameStop, Target, Amazon, and Toys R Us, they likely get information regarding sells across more than a third of the market.  And that's just five of the 900 retailers.

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Offline ymeegod

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2013, 01:47:11 PM »
Actually Toy's R US haven't been an partner since 2008.

Walmart started sometime last year.  Think Best Buy is one of their partners as well.  Amazon has been for years now.  Not sure about Target?  Never heard of them using NPD? 

Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2013, 02:21:10 PM »
I thought NPD picked TRU back up like, two years ago or so... am I crazy?
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Offline TJ Spyke

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2013, 05:33:13 PM »
Basically TRU stopped reporting to NPD at about the sametime Walmart agreed to start providing data.
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Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2013, 06:12:09 PM »
It's possible that TRU just doesn't submit video game sales info to NPD...

But here's an article from last year of a TRU exec citing NPD numbers to show the growth of TRU in the toy selling industry:
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/toys-r-us-offer-reservation-program-hot-toys-994189

Seems weird he'd cite NPD if they don't submit sales data to them.

In 2011, NPD added Toys R Us' UK branch to their sales data:
http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1t2ga/ToynPlaythingsJulyis/resources/6.htm

I can't seem to find anything directly saying that NPD picked up the main TRU branch here in the states, but I could have sworn they woo'd them back...
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Offline SixthAngel

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #35 on: April 02, 2013, 01:19:27 AM »
Is it a question of sales vs expectations or sales vs. budget?

I think it is a combination of super high budgets and the big risk of the video game industry. Investors need huge returns when putting in that kind of money and the unpredictability of the video game industry, at least compared to other industries, means even bigger returns. I think a lot of these games break even, but unfortunately breaking even isn't close to good enough.

Offline Do_What

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #36 on: April 02, 2013, 09:01:50 AM »
I can't wait for investor culture to die out. It won't be anytime soon, probably not in my lifetime, but it'll die out eventually, because it's not actually sustainable, and that'll be good for everyone.
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Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #37 on: April 02, 2013, 09:19:30 AM »
You're hoping society goes back to a system of patronage (specifically, arts patronage)?

Sounds good, in theory.  In fact, nothing is stopping that from happening now.  We're starting to see a bit of that with Kickstarter - except that the system is set up so that you have to give your donors rewards (Well, there's usually the $1 level where you get a "thank you"...).  I'm curious if a popular idea that requires a large budget could succeed with Kickstarter without giving any kind of tangible rewards.
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Offline Do_What

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #38 on: April 02, 2013, 09:57:05 AM »
We're seeing it in better examples than kickstarter. Investor culture is the idea that if you're not growing you're dying, when in reality making a steady profit is actually good enough. Some companies are starting to buck against the idea that if they don't make more profit than they did last quarter then they're failing as a company. It doesn't make sense to some people that their stock price goes down after a quarter where they make more profit (not just sold more or took in more money but also spent a lot more, they grossed more than they had ever before) than they had before. The idea that you can make money and have your company lose value is something that doesn't make sense.
I'm not for the dissolution of big companies. They have their place, but they don't need to operate on this insane quarter to quarter scenario.
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Offline oohhboy

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #39 on: April 02, 2013, 10:33:54 AM »
The fact a lot of investors have extremely poor grasp of economics doesn't help. Asking a company to perpetually grow is asking them to violate the laws of physics, not happening. It is an incredibly self destructive system that fails the moment you hit those physical limits or the limits come to you during recessions.

It also doesn't help that a lot of companies exists mostly as Brands than actual products. Considering some of the time the marketing budget excceds the development budget by several times, they aren't selling the game at all, they are selling the marketing. Most of it is made up of really dumb, blunt expensive marketing like weeks long ad blocks on TV or buying out multiple website ad space. A lot of these games don't need that kind of coverage since gamers effectively market to ourselves through social circles and the internet.
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Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #40 on: April 02, 2013, 11:16:42 AM »
Many investors live by the motto "As long as there's competition, there's room for growth."
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Offline magicpixie

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2013, 04:02:17 PM »
Square-Enix have clarified their issues with sales numbers for these games. 

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/04/09/square-enix-reveals-sales-expectations-for-tomb-raider?abthid=516427a067b8048829000007

Lulz at S-E expecting Tomb Raider to sell between 5-6 million units in under a month.... and that was a conservative estimate!

Offline Ceric

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2013, 04:13:13 PM »
A little late to part of this party but, Wal-Mart started reporting to NPD.  Are they doing that bad?  Wal-Mart is known for being hyper-protective of any of their data.
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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #43 on: April 10, 2013, 02:08:31 PM »
Square-Enix have clarified their issues with sales numbers for these games. 

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/04/09/square-enix-reveals-sales-expectations-for-tomb-raider?abthid=516427a067b8048829000007

Lulz at S-E expecting Tomb Raider to sell between 5-6 million units in under a month.... and that was a conservative estimate!

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Offline broodwars

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #44 on: April 10, 2013, 02:26:39 PM »
Square-Enix have clarified their issues with sales numbers for these games. 

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/04/09/square-enix-reveals-sales-expectations-for-tomb-raider?abthid=516427a067b8048829000007

Lulz at S-E expecting Tomb Raider to sell between 5-6 million units in under a month.... and that was a conservative estimate!

So like I said earlier, Square-Enix had ridiculous expectations that had nothing to do with the game's budget, which the game has likely already made-up. S-E was just banking on Tomb Raider to sell in ridiculous numbers to bail out their other failing projects.
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Offline Ceric

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #45 on: April 10, 2013, 03:08:12 PM »
I'm going to say this right now.  5-6 Million CONSERVATIVE is well crazy unless it was the Tomb Raider game AND an interactive porn simulator.
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Offline Louieturkey

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #46 on: April 10, 2013, 03:42:54 PM »
The only way they'd selling that many in a month would be if it was Call of Duty: Tomb Raider edition.

Offline Ian Sane

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #47 on: April 10, 2013, 05:06:00 PM »
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales.  You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was.  You've got nothing to lose.

Offline UncleBob

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #48 on: April 10, 2013, 07:57:45 PM »
So like I said earlier, Square-Enix had ridiculous expectations that had nothing to do with the game's budget, which the game has likely already made-up. S-E was just banking on Tomb Raider to sell in ridiculous numbers to bail out their other failing projects.
This still doesn't answer that though. S/E had stupid expectations.  We can all agree on that.  But what did they base those expectations on? 
Without knowing anything behind the scenes, I could easily see something like:

Developer: We need $50 Million to make this game.
S/E bean counters: Hm. We spent $10 million on the last DQ game and sold one million copies. You want five times that. Can you sell five times as many copies?
Developer: ...ummm... sure! We're awesome.  Why not?

Sadly, companies tend to not be very open about things like development costs... so we'll likely never know.  I don't think that's really what happened - I'd say the truth is somewhere in between.  Something, somewhere is nagging at me that the budget of this game had something to do with the expectations placed upon it.
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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
« Reply #49 on: April 10, 2013, 09:57:58 PM »
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales.  You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was.  You've got nothing to lose.
except your job genius... any more bright ideas?