Topic: Soccer Discussion: 1.67% Chance of Being the Best Thread on the NWR Forums

[rygar]

That a good point about player rotation.

I also think this could be a boon for MLS. It should help develop the overall league player pool and it offers unique marketing opportunities. They need greater exposure their non-American players and this seems a good vehicle.

[Soren]

I don't know how many Caribbean teams would have the money to consistently field teams in a league style system. Haiti, Curacao, Jamaica and T&T for sure but I'm struggling to pick anyone else. Most teams don't have the resources to call up players, schedule matches and fill out FIFA dates to keep their national teams fresh.

[rygar]

This will drive their revenues up considerably because it will increase the frequency and predictability of when they play Mexico and the US. The long term vision is for them to reinvest the big gains in sponsorship and media revenues back into developing the programs. They'll be lots of incentives for them to do so.

[NWR_insanolord]

So according to Grant Wahl, who usually knows his stuff, this "joint" World Cup bid of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico will involve 60 games in the United States and only 10 each in Canada and Mexico, and every match from the quarterfinals on being in the U.S. This seems like a shrewd bit of business by Sunil Gulati and the U.S. Soccer Federation, giving up a small amount in order to create a bid that can't lose. I need to start saving money now in anticipation of this thing.

[rygar]

I think the expanded CONCACAF slots, expanded Copa, qualification reformatting, and joint bid are probably being negotiated in conjunction. When taken collectively, there are big upsides for the entire hemisphere. If it ends up working out like anticipated, there is a lot of praise to go around, especially considering how far apart everyone was just a year ago. They've seemed to have struck a plausible balance between on-and-off-field sport and revenue development and maintaining credible and engaging competitions.

[Soren]

CONCACAF wants an expedited no-bid process which could result in the 2026 hosts being decided by the end of this year. That sounds crazy and basically raises a giant, Chuck Blazer-sized corruption red flag right from the get go. Canada and Mexico seem like they're just going to be along for the ride, not much negotiating power there given the quotes from the Mexican federation president.

http://deadspin.com/concacaf-wants-no-bid-deal-to-host-world-cup-1794207129

[rygar]

This is an interesting if uncomfortable dilemma because it's not remotely clear to me what the correct answer is. The bidding process is the primary source of corruption (and when a lot of the development funds get skimmed) but a no-bid award undercuts the legitimacy of the USDOJ's long needed intervention into CONCACAF graft. One thing we can be certain of: everybody is looking out for their own interests and trying to get the best deal for themselves. This latest round of media leaks is just another stage in the negotiations. Personally, I think if you take all the "reforms" en masse, there is reason for everyone in the western hemisphere to be both happy and frustrated with how things appear to be working out. That suggests to me that it is a sustainable and decent compromise.

[rygar]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I believe that a no-bid process is a big mistake. I am too uncomfortable with the precedent it would set and the implications of it for the integrity of the DOJ investigation. I'm just really bothered that in this instance a competitive bid will likely lead to more corruption than a negotiated bid would, and that the biggest opponents of the negotiated bid will be the people whose main role in the process is to skim money that should be going to the athletes and administrative staff.

[NWR_insanolord]

The thing is, I don't see how anyone else is going to be able to put together a bid that's at all competitive with this one. Europe and Asia aren't allowed to bid for this one as the two most recent confederations to host, and South America's waiting for 2030 and the 100th anniversary of the inaugural World Cup in Uruguay. This is the winning bid, whether they decide now or in three years. 

[rygar]

I agree, and that's why I think it would be such a mistake to try to muscle this through. I think there will be another round of concessions, and the bid will be ultimately be negotiated with broad support across FIFA. If it isn't, the US will either come back with a single-country competitive bid, or walk entirely from the process.

[Soren]

I do understand the inherent corruption within FIFA event bids, but I don't think closing the process to bids solves the issue, or even helps mitigate it in any way. The Jack Warner scandal and Jeffrey Webb's arrest are still way fresh in the minds so it doesn't help CONCACAF to want to expedite the process. Public perception is still key here.

US Soccer and Sunil might have an attractive proposal for an easy slam dunk World Cup, but when it comes to FIFA as an entity, all these small Caribbean countries hold as much if not more power than the US and they will really push for their piece of the pie considering infrastructure costs for a US-led World Cup would be low. And that's where most of the corruption is bound to go.

This is the winning bid, whether they decide now or in three years. 

Qatar is going to host a World Cup. With FIFA there's no such thing as a slam dunk bid.

EDIT: This is never going to happen, but the Spain/Portugal/Morocco bid is really really interesting.

[NWR_insanolord]

Borussia Dortmund have apparently enquired with Hamburg about Bobby Wood and might like him to be Aubameyang's backup. Then all they'll need to do is buy John Brooks (which they probably should, given how much of a mess their defense seems to be every time I watch them) and they'll have cornered the American market.

[rygar]

I think if Pulisic is still there in 2019, it probably means his development stalled. Dembele and Weigl will also probably be gone too. Dortmund were already struggling to keep players and now the Premier League is a whole lot richer. I'd include Aubameyang, but he is older obviously.

[rygar]

Atleti-Madrid
Juve-Monaco

Early lines have Madrid and Juve solid favorites to advance. Any potential combination would have been compelling, but this might be the best draw for neutrals.

Ajax-Lyon
Celta Vigo-United

The lines have United as huge favorites and Lyon advancing. Ligue 1 has rarely been competitive in Europe, so it would be surprising to see them have two finalists.

[NWR_insanolord]

It's hard not to get excited about the future of U.S. soccer with how well our youth teams have been playing lately. First the U20 team won the CONCACAF championship a couple months ago, and now the U17s are well on their way with a pair of victories, including tonight's against Mexico.

Continued investment in youth development is paying off as every youth class is deemed the best we've ever had. The U17 and U20 World Cups should be interesting this summer, with both teams poised to make deep runs. This U17 class is of particular interest, as this age group will be entering its prime when the 2026 World Cup comes about.

[Stratos]

The Sounders match last night was a super fun ride. Amazing how a turnabout from 0-3 to 3-3 in the last 20 minutes can make a tie feel like a win. Don't recall ever having been so worked up over a soccer game before.

[NWR_insanolord]

It was nice to see them respond that way to going down early. It's the second time this season they've come back from down multiple goals in the last 15 minutes of a match to draw. They were missing three of four starters on their back line, with the lone first choice option being Joevin Jones, a left back more known for his offensive abilities than his defending, so hopefully once they're back to full strength there they won't have to rely on big comebacks.

[NWR_insanolord]

The U.S. under-17 team remained perfect in the tournament and officially punched their ticket to the U17 World Cup this summer with a 6-2 win over Cuba today that was even more lopsided than that score would seem to indicate. I've said before in this thread that our youth teams are great and fun to watch, and today was no exception.

There were lots of great moments, but my personal favorite was this one, Andrew Carleton perfectly chipping the Cuban goalkeeper from 20 yards out while running at full sprint.

[NWR_insanolord]

Atletico-Real Madrid looked like it was going to be one for the ages based on the first 20 minutes, but sadly it fizzled out. Real deserved the win, but I was rooting for the historic comeback.

[rygar]

Zidane's consistent message is "we will suffer". Neutrals will be heavily in support of Juve, but I'm interested to see the Bale factor in Cardiff. Ronaldo seems to have retained a strong following among the United fans as well. I haven't seen a settled line yet.

The La Liga race is as tight as could be as well.

[rygar]

93% of the 209 FIFA members voted to fast track the 2026 World Cup bid. August 11th is the deadline for hosts to express interest, bidders must meet the technical qualifications by March 2018, and the bid will be awarded on June 13, 2018.

[NWR_insanolord]

We're in a wonderful time of year in American soccer right now, and that's the early stages of the U.S. Open Cup. This week is maybe the best one, where the D2 teams (USL and NASL) face off against amateur sides, and with still plenty of matches left to play, we've had one hell of an upset. The New York Cosmos, reigning NASL champions, were taken down by amateur club Reading United. While it is sad that that means we won't get a Cosmos-Red Bulls or Cosmos-NYCFC matchup this year, it's a testament to how great this tournament is.

[rygar]

Reading United

Very nice. I played in a couple of American football games in their home stadium.

[NWR_insanolord]

I'm just crazy enough to adjust my sleep schedule specifically to watch the U.S. matches in the Under-20 World Cup next week at 4, 7, and 5 a.m. respectively.

[rygar]

I'm usually traveling for work during the CL quarters and semis so I typically carry a FoxSoccer2Go subscription, but I let it lapse this year because I would be home. That and a DVR are integral for me as a soccer fan. I wish Fox or now Disney (since they lost FIFA) would buy the rights to La Liga. BeIN Sports is terrible.