Topic: Nintendo: Wii 2 Not Necessary for 2011

[Kytim89]

I want the Wii 2 as soon as possible because I am craving bigger and better games.

[TJ Spyke]

The NES launched in 1985 (it was only in New York, but it still counts), even longer if you count it's 1983 launch in Japan. Besides, they don't have the same sense of urgency now (the Genesis had better graphics and was starting to outsell NES, PlayStation was starting to become huge, N64 sales and GCN sales were insignificant by the end of their generation).

Wii sales are still good enough that Wii 2 isn't needed anytime soon, and they can still drop the price to $180 or $150 to boost sales when they need too. I don't see PlayStation Move or Kinect having any impact on their release plans.

[KDR_11k]

I think they pretty much said that the Wii needs a pricedrop this year. 2011 for a new console doesn't seem likely because it takes longer to gear those up (the system must be announced close to when SDKs go out so it doesn't leak) but I wouldn't rule out a mid-year 2012 launch.

[Jonnyboy117]

Um, we'll see how well Wii sells this holiday season. I expect it to perform at a fraction of last year's numbers. Next year will be a fraction of a fraction, and the software lineup will be even weaker.

[ShyGuy]

I assume we will see or at least hear about the Wii 2 before we reach 45 million. I think it will be mentioned at E3 2011

[Kytim89]

I assume we will see or at least hear about the Wii 2 before we reach 45 million. I think it will be mentioned at E3 2011

It will most likely be revealed at E3 2011 for a release in 2012.

[Mop it up]

If Nintendo wants the Wii to keep selling then they'll have to start putting more effort into pushing systems out there. Adding more value to the Wii system package is a must, they should at least add in a second controller so multiplayer can be played out of the box. They've also been pushing the Motion Plus as a new standard but haven't backed it up with software, so they should get some more games out there that use it. In North America it'd be even easier to create a solid release schedule for 2011; just localize some games that haven't been released here yet.

As for me personally, I don't really care how long it takes for the next system to launch, because the Wii library is enough that I'm not going to want a new system for some time.

[Kytim89]

Could Nintendo release a stop gap system similar to the DSi and raise console sales?

[Stogi]

This is very uninteresting. What actually makes it rather fun is how all of you are up-in-arms one way or another.

Why did Reggie say that? Well because it's the only answer he could have given and not because of anything else. Read the article and not the snippet. There was no puppetry and no sincere truth in it; just PR at it's most uninteresting.

What it did do is make all of you begin to speculate when it would appear and why, which is way more interesting.

[BlackNMild2k1]

@Kytim
No. we don't want a WiiHD at a price refresh. What Nintendo needs to do is take their value added package and drop the price.

A Black Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and Mario Kart with a Black Wheel and a Black Wiimote+ for $179.99
A White Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and Super Mario Galaxy 2 with 1000 Wii points and a White Wiimote+ for $179.99
A Red Wii with a WiiSports Resort+ combo and NSMBWii and 25th Anniversary SMB VC and a Red Wiimote+ for $179.99

They need better bundles at a slightly reduced price and they need to hurry up and combine WiiSports and WiiSports Resort into one game package. It's looong overdue.

[yoshi1001]

A lot of it depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline for hardware. If they really have the next big thing (in their estimation) but there's no way they can get it out before 2012 (maybe even 2013), they'll wait until then.

As for possible games for a Wii 2, I haven't seen any mention of a Pokemon Stadium/Colosseum/Revolution game for Black and White (correct me if I've missed it). It would be a fairly easy game to develop and would sell a fair number of consoles. Granted, that would be one game, but I'm sure some of you could think of others.

[NWR_Neal]

Read the article and not the snippet. There was no puppetry and no sincere truth in it; just PR at it's most uninteresting.

i'm assuming by the article you mean the Kotaku story, and the snippet as my story.

As the author behind the story, I'm utterly confused by this. The only thing that I didn't include that was said by Reggie in Kotaku's story was a "No" in response to Totilo's question "Is the Wii 2 a must for 2011?"

Then, the only other stuff from Reggie was the quote I used in my story.

So what is the difference between these two stories that makes it so vastly different? I agree this is one of those non-answer replies, but it is interesting to see Reggie make the comment that they won't even talk about Wii 2 until the Wii sells about 15 million units more.

[Chozo Ghost]

A good chunk of that 15 million units are going to be sold during the remainder of 2010. Hard to say how many, but with the NSMB bundle and other incentives it looks like the Wii is on track to sell I'd guess 2-4 million units in December. November sales might be 1-2 million, so add that up and that's about 1/3 of what Reggie says needs to sell. I don't doubt the remainder of that could be achieved by the end of 2011.

[NWR_Neal]

I did the research for the story, and the Wii, despite all of its sales success, has sold 30 million in a month or two shy of four years. Do you really think it's got the power to keep that pace up for two years? I don't.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I did the research for the story, and the Wii, despite all of its sales success, has sold 30 million in a month or two shy of four years. Do you really think it's got the power to keep that pace up for two years? I don't.

Did you really need to research that though? wasn't that stated by Reggie in the quote?


and for the record I think it's near impossible for Wii to keep pace with the 4 year average over the next year or two without some major price drops.
Bundles are good, but $200 is still $200 and most people that aren't willing to bite at $200 won't do it regardless of how many games you can throw in.

[MaryJane]

The Wii isn't selling like it used to, but it is still selling fairly well, and at E3 2011 we'll likely discover what titles Nintendo hopes will carry the Wii through the 2011 holiday. Any talk of the Wii2 beyond 'at E3 2012 we're going to show the Wii2' will hurt sales, and with Iwata saying how they want to try weekly incentives for people to buy the Wii why would they do anything to hurt sales? Nintendo has been making a profit on the Wii since day one, and they are going to squeeze that lemon dry, soak it in water and then squeeze it dry again. I would say expect a price drop around 3DS launch, and just a mention of the fact that the Wii2 is in the works at E3 2011. That seems to make the most sense financially, the Wii is still getting good games, it could be argued that its recently been getting even better games (Kirby, Goldeneye, COD etc.) so why stop now?

BnM, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Nintendo's competition dictate its previous consoles lifespans? Sony and MS are in no hurry to bring in successors, and for now, Nintendo still dominates in terms of lifetime sales, what reason do they have to release a new, not to mention expensive for them and casual consumers who are biggest base and likely unwilling to upgrade console? There is no need to abandon the Wii just yet, it is still printing money, unlike the N64 and GC at their ends, as someone else mentioned.

Personally, I took Reggie's quote to mean 3 things:
1. We want to sell a lot more Wiis
2. As Neal sort of surmised, we want to sell Wiis for another two years
3. We're not going to say anything about the Wii 2 until the number goal has been reached, or it becomes apparent that it isn't going to be reached


For all we know this could all be about Nintendo wanting to take the 'Best Selling Console of All-Time' title back from Sony, and the Wii is likely their best chance to do so, as casuals may feel that the Wii already gives them all they need for fitness, cooking, and a little bit fun when other people come over.

[BlackNMild2k1]

There could be arguments made to support Nintendo going either way, but I'm not gonna say anyone is crazy for believing that they want to stretch this out for a long as possible just as I wouldn't call anyone delusional for thinking that maybe Nintendo wants to take advantage of a unique situation where their main competition is not in a position to launch a competing product at this time while also sticking to the traditional 5 year cycle.

I have no idea what Nintendo's plan is, but you also have to remember that all those people they plan on selling the remaining 15 million Wiis to are not likely the 30+million that they have already sold to, so providing new hardware might not eat into extended old hardware sales to the late adopters. The PS2 is still selling decently for being 10 years old afterall.

[NWR_Neal]

BnM - EDIT: Misread what you said, but regardless, here's a link that confirms the 30 million number I throw around, and backs up the simple math I used to deduce the theory that Reggie might be saying we won't be hearing anything until 2012 at the earliest.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31494/FilsAime_Holidays_More_Important_To_Nintendo_Than_Rivals.php

Thought I added that link to the story, but it looks like it didn't go through. Will update.

[Kytim89]

The PS2 continued to sell farely well past its prime, so could the Wii do the same even after the Wii 2 is released? Also, I have a feeling that some kind of hard ware revisions in the same vein as the PS2 slim for the Wii would help move some units as well.

[MaryJane]

I'm all about the civil disagreement BnM and I think you have a good argument, but that same situation will be true next year and likely 2012 because of the high cost of developing HD games. And whether or not the targeted 15million are the same who would buy a Wii2 or not doesn't actually matter because Iwata believes that they are. He said something along the lines of, people waiting for a price drop or other incentive to buy the Wii, and I bet he intends to give them those incentives before announcing Wii2.

Just from personal observation, the driving forces of PS2 sales after the PS3 launch were the PS3's price, the slim version, and broken or breakin PS2's. Of course the impressive game library helped too...

[Kytim89]

A Wii price drop coinciding with a price drop of Wii games from $50 to $40 could be a good enough incentive to move consoles.

[thaantman]

Nintendo is actually in a good position now. The reason nintendo isn't sweatin sony & microsoft motion scheme is because nintendo already dominated that area for the past four years. Wii is still the cheapest system on the market, and have plenty of good games this holiday season. The fact that wii basically being the inferior system outselling ps360 combine basically gives nintendo the head start to release their next home console when they please. The next console don't have to compete with ps3 & 360, because wii already doing that and is succeeding. The next console would be giving nintendo early revenue for the next gen of consoles. 2011 is definitely the last year for the wii, with already one zelda game and another on the way, not 1 but 2 major 3D mario games, NSMB, smash bros. 2 metriod games, a had full of mario party and sports games, animal crossing, wii fit & wii fit plus, a kirby and a dk game just released, I really don't see much on the horizon for first party games were definitely not getting another zelda or 3D mario adventures and doubt will see any more metroid, dk & kirby both just made their 1st official wii appearance and be surprised if we get anything from them so soon. All we have thus far is mario sport mix, skyword sword, and pikmin 3. With the 3DS coming out after the holiday rush this is nintendo's moment to completely put the spot light on themselves and you know nintendo is gonna make mad cash off the 3DS, they made the DS like 5 times over and look at how much their making off it. We will definitely here word of a wii successor by E3 whether it's a full blown description or a tease we will get some sort of info.   

[Luigi Dude]

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Here's a list of all of Nintendo first and second party studio's that actually developed games for the Wii are currently up to and what they've recently done.  I'm leaving out the studio's that only made games for the DS since I doubt Nintendo's going to suddenly have them start working on HD games when they weren't even making normal Wii games.

EAD 1 - Currently working on Mario Kart 3DS and Nintendogs + Cats.  Last game released was Mario Kart Wii over 2.5 years ago and before that was Mario Kart DS released 5 years ago.

EAD 2 - Currently working on Animal Crossing 3DS and Pilotwings Resort.  Last game released was Wii Sports Resort over a year ago, and before that was Animal Crossing Wii and Wii Music 2 years ago.

EAD 3 - Currently working on Skyward Sword and Ocarina of Time remake.  Last handheld Zelda was release almost 1 year ago but last home console Zelda was released 4 years ago.

EAD 4 - Currently rumored to be working on Pikmin 3 for the Wii since they did the New Play Control Pikmin ports.  Last game released was New Super Mario Bros Wii which was 1 year ago and before that was Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree over 3 years ago.

EAD 5 - Current development unknown.  Last released game was Wii Fit Plus a little over a year ago and before that was Wii Fit almost 3 years ago in Japan.

Tokyo EAD - Current project unknown.  Last game was Mario Galaxy 2 released 6 months ago and before that was Mario Galaxy released 3 years ago.

Intelligent Systems - Currently working on Paper Mario 3DS.  Last game released was Fire Emblem: Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS 4 months ago in Japan.  Last home console game though was Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn released over 3 years ago.

Monolith Soft - Current game unknown.  Last game was Xenoblade released 5 months ago in Japan, and before that was Disaster released 2 years ago.

Retro Studios - Currently working on Donkey Kong Country Returns which comes out in almost a week.  Last game before that was Metroid Prime 3 which was released 3 years ago.

Nd Cube - Just recently released Wii Party, can't find much on any of their previous games except for F-Zero Maximum Velocity for the GBA in 2001 and Tube Slider for the Gamecube in 2003.  Of course Nintendo just bought the entire company and recently turned it into a first party studio so I imagine it'll be getting more productive soon.

Creatures Inc - Current project unknown.  Recently released Pokemon Ranger: Guardian Signs for the DS and released PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Adventure for the Wii a year ago in Japan which was their first home console game since the canceled EarthBound 64.

Camelot - Recently released Golden Sun: Dark Dawn for the DS but they did make We Love Golf for Capcom on the Wii which was released almost 3 years ago.

Genius Sonority - Currently working on a Pokemon typing game for the DS.  Last Wii game to be released was Pokemon Battle Revolution in late 2006 and Dragon Quest Swords back in 2007 where they help assist Eighting in development.

Good Feel - Just released Kirby's Epic Yarn and before that was Wario Land Shake back in 2008.

Monster Games - Current Project unknown.  Last game released was Exitebots over 1.5 years ago and before that was Exite Trucks back in late 2006.

Next Level Games - Recently worked on several Wii titles, last one for Nintendo themselves was Punch-Out!! over 1.5 years ago and Mario Strikers Charged over 3 years ago.

Paon - Recent game unknown.  Last game was the Klonoa remake for the Wii which was released 2 years ago in Japan and before that was DK: Barrel Blast over 3 years.

Skip - Recent game unknown.  Last game was a Chibi Robo for the DS over a year ago that has stayed Japan only and for the Wii Captain Rainbow released over 2 years ago.



Based on the recent development history of all these studios, I just don't see how most of them could realistically have anything ready for a late 2011 or early 2012 launch.  Not to mention the studio's that haven't released any Wii games lately are mostly the lesser ones like Paon and Skip which point to them probably releasing normal Wii games in 2011 to help give the Wii some more support for 2011/early 2012 since Nintendo would not launch a new system on the backs of these developers.

[GoldenPhoenix]

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Here's a list of all of Nintendo first and second party studio's that actually developed games for the Wii are currently up to and what they've recently done.  I'm leaving out the studio's that only made games for the DS since I doubt Nintendo's going to suddenly have them start working on HD games when they weren't even making normal Wii games.

EAD 1 - Currently working on Mario Kart 3DS and Nintendogs + Cats.  Last game released was Mario Kart Wii over 2.5 years ago and before that was Mario Kart DS released 5 years ago.

EAD 2 - Currently working on Animal Crossing 3DS and Pilotwings Resort.  Last game released was Wii Sports Resort over a year ago, and before that was Animal Crossing Wii and Wii Music 2 years ago.

EAD 3 - Currently working on Skyward Sword and Ocarina of Time remake.  Last handheld Zelda was release almost 1 year ago but last home console Zelda was released 4 years ago.

EAD 4 - Currently rumored to be working on Pikmin 3 for the Wii since they did the New Play Control Pikmin ports.  Last game released was New Super Mario Bros Wii which was 1 year ago and before that was Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree over 3 years ago.

EAD 5 - Current development unknown.  Last released game was Wii Fit Plus a little over a year ago and before that was Wii Fit almost 3 years ago in Japan.

Tokyo EAD - Current project unknown.  Last game was Mario Galaxy 2 released 6 months ago and before that was Mario Galaxy released 3 years ago.

Intelligent Systems - Currently working on Paper Mario 3DS.  Last game released was Fire Emblem: Mystery of the Emblem remake for the DS 4 months ago in Japan.  Last home console game though was Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn released over 3 years ago.

Monolith Soft - Current game unknown.  Last game was Xenoblade released 5 months ago in Japan, and before that was Disaster released 2 years ago.

Retro Studios - Currently working on Donkey Kong Country Returns which comes out in almost a week.  Last game before that was Metroid Prime 3 which was released 3 years ago.

Nd Cube - Just recently released Wii Party, can't find much on any of their previous games except for F-Zero Maximum Velocity for the GBA in 2001 and Tube Slider for the Gamecube in 2003.  Of course Nintendo just bought the entire company and recently turned it into a first party studio so I imagine it'll be getting more productive soon.

Creatures Inc - Current project unknown.  Recently released Pokemon Ranger: Guardian Signs for the DS and released PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Adventure for the Wii a year ago in Japan which was their first home console game since the canceled EarthBound 64.

Camelot - Recently released Golden Sun: Dark Dawn for the DS but they did make We Love Golf for Capcom on the Wii which was released almost 3 years ago.

Genius Sonority - Currently working on a Pokemon typing game for the DS.  Last Wii game to be released was Pokemon Battle Revolution in late 2006 and Dragon Quest Swords back in 2007 where they help assist Eighting in development.

Good Feel - Just released Kirby's Epic Yarn and before that was Wario Land Shake back in 2008.

Monster Games - Current Project unknown.  Last game released was Exitebots over 1.5 years ago and before that was Exite Trucks back in late 2006.

Next Level Games - Recently worked on several Wii titles, last one for Nintendo themselves was Punch-Out!! over 1.5 years ago and Mario Strikers Charged over 3 years ago.

Paon - Recent game unknown.  Last game was the Klonoa remake for the Wii which was released 2 years ago in Japan and before that was DK: Barrel Blast over 3 years.

Skip - Recent game unknown.  Last game was a Chibi Robo for the DS over a year ago that has stayed Japan only and for the Wii Captain Rainbow released over 2 years ago.



Based on the recent development history of all these studios, I just don't see how most of them could realistically have anything ready for a late 2011 or early 2012 launch.  Not to mention the studio's that haven't released any Wii games lately are mostly the lesser ones like Paon and Skip which point to them probably releasing normal Wii games in 2011 to help give the Wii some more support for 2011/early 2012 since Nintendo would not launch a new system on the backs of these developers.

Very informative post, thanks. Also remember Retro worked on the Metroid Prime Triliogy Port for Wii. Though who knows how big the team was behind it.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'm pretty sure no one has actually forgotten about this but I think we all know the Wii swan song will be DQX sometime in the latter half of 2011. Or atleast it's supposed to be... the game still hasn't been officially announced or revealed.

@MJ
I don't doubt that the Wii has lots of life left in it as there is lots of room for bargain gamers and late adopter price drops, but holding out for those people with no new compelling software from either 1st, 2nd or 3rd parties just because you don't want to release new hardware since there is no pressure to do so from looming next-gen consoles from the competition just doesn't seem like something Nintendo is gonna do. All that happens in that situation is Nintendo ends up losing some of the former faithfuls that were ready for the next big thing from Nintendo who then finally jump ship and just go buy a PS3 or 360 to get some real games.

The late adopters are always gonna be late adopters and bargain gamers will always be bargain gamers, they will always show up when the party is practically over or the store is closing and everything is on sale, so there is no reason to risk your money spending early adopters and core audiences just to hold out for the "maybe laters" and the "$20 or less" crowd.

I personally think that if the 3DS launch is a major success then we might be see Wii2 before FY2011 is over. I think certain devs have already been told targets and to aim for a Xmas 2011 just like they were told to aim for Xmas 2010 with the 3DS. The 3DS delay may have offset things a little, but I still think they may stick to that original plan as close of possible.

Just think if Nintendo launched Wii2 next year and MS doesn't release X720 till 2014/2015 and Sony rides it out till then too. Wii2 doesn't totally eclipse the PS360 completely due to diminishing returns, so they rely on their massive install bases compared to Wii2 to keep the profits rolling in long enough to get both departments back into the black. By the time they release their next gen systems, it could be time for another Nintendo refresh again.
I don't know how likely that is, but it's just one of may possible scenarios that could play to Nintendos advantage by releasing sooner rather than later.


edit:
@Luigi Dude
Thanks for all the info. But I'm sure all Nintendo really needs is 2-3 launch games and the full backing of key 3rd parties when the time comes and they could be well prepared for a late 2011/early 2012 launch. A Twilight Princessing(dual version) of Skyward Sword would probably help the launch out tremendously again too. I still thinks it's possible.