Topic: Fils-Aime: HD is Not Enough

[NWR_insanolord]

I sincerely hope Nintendo next console is NOT in HD.

You're going to be sincerely disappointed.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I sincerely hope Nintendo next console is NOT in HD.

It will be. they've already admitted to that.

[Peachylala]

I sincerely hope Nintendo next console is NOT in HD.

You're going to be sincerely disappointed.

My wallet is already crying.

[NWR_Lindy]

Come on now.  Nintendo's next console will be HD, but it will be released when the hardware reaches a point that it can be sold for $250.  That price point is Nintendo's bread-and-butter.  They'll ride out the Wii until that happens, and make tons of money in the process.

I think it's safe to say that Nintendo will be the price point leader from here on out, with Sony and Microsoft battling on a platform of bang-for-buck.

[Mop it up]

$200 is supposed to be Nintendo's price point. I hope they still include a "free" game to justify the extra $50.

[Peachylala]

They did with the Wii, and we know how that worked out.

Except, what type of Wii Sports type game can they make for Wii 2?

[Mop it up]

I can't answer really answer that, especially since I don't know what kind of features the next system will have. But I'm sure Nintendo will find something enticing to include because their most successful systems had pack-in games.

[NWR_Lindy]

Geez, it's been so long since consoles have been below $250 that I forgot about the $200 price point.  That seems ridiculously cheap nowadays, but truthfully, consoles today have so much more crammed under the hood.  It's no surprise that they've all gone up in price.

[King of Twitch]

They did with the Wii, and we know how that worked out.

Except, what type of Wii Sports type game can they make for Wii 2?

Wii Snort Resort: a look at the seedier side of Wuhu Island, as the Miis recover from withdrawal in a variety of new, constructive and relaxing hobbies.

COME GET YOUR FIX NOVEMBER 20, 2011

[Mop it up]

Geez, it's been so long since consoles have been below $250 that I forgot about the $200 price point.  That seems ridiculously cheap nowadays, but truthfully, consoles today have so much more crammed under the hood.  It's no surprise that they've all gone up in price.

When you factor in inflation, the $250 Wii is actually cheaper than the $200 NES. So I don't really mind the $50 increase since it isn't really much of an increase when you look at it that way. But I still hope it doesn't rise any more.

[KDR_11k]

It probably bugs the **** out of Nintendo though to have these analysts constantly pulling this BS out of their ass.  How does one become a videogame market analyst when pretty much everyone on this forum knows more about videogames than you?  Nintendo will probably release their next console in the second half of 2011 at the absolute earliest.

Malstrom suggests that it's a targeted disinformation campaign that aims to undermine the Wii's disruption of the game industry (which goes beyond no HD, the Wii has very restrictive DLC rules and doesn't allow digital distro of new retail games at all, for example)

Well it is quite obvious Reggie is saying that they need to do more to innovate their next console then JUST a HD bump. With Natal and the Ice Cream Cone coming on the market I am interested to see what Nintendo does to stay ahead with their next console when it comes to control.

Nintendo is ahead in more than just controls. No third party can make software that's as popular as Nintendo's and MS and Sony won't have nintendo making games for them, they'll only have the third party games.

The next wii needs to morph the sensor bar into also a camera.

3d head tracking tech needs to be part of that.

That violates the first rule of success for the Wii: Local multiplayer. Head tracking only works for one player.

Why does Reggie seem to a consistent way of coming off as condescending?  Sounds like a mother scolding her baby.

Because he's talking to a fucking idiot who kept blabbing about a Wii HD (and that means Wii HD, not Nintendo's 6th console) despite that making absolutely no sense.

Geez, it's been so long since consoles have been below $250 that I forgot about the $200 price point.  That seems ridiculously cheap nowadays, but truthfully, consoles today have so much more crammed under the hood.  It's no surprise that they've all gone up in price.

That's because that cramming is unnecessary and this gen's insane prices were the result of desperately pushing further in an attempt to get some difference to last gen. MS and Sony desperately wanted to win the performance crown so they pushed beyond the reasonable while Nintendo obliterated them by realizing that crown is worthless.

[NWR_DrewMG]

Worthless?  Didn't Modern Warfare 2 just set pretty much every sales record?  There is worth there, but Microsoft and Sony didn't do a good enough job of capitalizing on that potential.  Can we please stop spreading this idea that HD games are somehow completely immune to mass market success?

[Chozo Ghost]

It's like the GC vs PSXbox never happened.

Yeah but the Gamecube was the last place console and it was a follow-up to an underperforming console.  Nintendo will likely enter the next generation as the market leader.  I figure that will make a difference.  I don't subscribe to the "everyone just hates Nintendo" theory, partially because it's idiotic from a business sense and I doubt that EVERY single videogame company in the world would do something that idiotic just for spite.  And partially because we haven't seen Nintendo compete for third party support on a level playing field for a long time.  Since the N64 there has always been something that screws things up.

It was beat by the original Xbox by only the slimmest of margins. Zelda TP came out very late in the GC's life and gave it a good boost in sales. I don't think it passed the Xbox, but it didn't lose by very much.

[that Baby guy]

Worthless?  Didn't Modern Warfare 2 just set pretty much every sales record?  There is worth there, but Microsoft and Sony didn't do a good enough job of capitalizing on that potential.  Can we please stop spreading this idea that HD games are somehow completely immune to mass market success?

It's not because it's an HD game, it's because Call of Duty, a franchise that began last generation, has built up major multiplayer appeal.  While the Wii doesn't have the same online multiplayer following, had Call of Duty been released on the console all the way through, and used the Wii's actual features, it would've been just as major a part of that launch.  The issue appears to be the claim that the Wii can't support online, voice chat, and several players, which just isn't true, it's been done before.

That said, Nintendo actually could release a newer, HD Wii model that output in something like 720p without it being an entirely new console.  It would have to be something with similar architecture, but I believe it could do it.  I don't know everything about it, but people are even able to output Wii games in 720p using emulators.  Personally, I wouldn't likely care if Nintendo performed the upgrade or not, but if they did and I did determine I'd want it, I'd give my original Wii to some family that didn't have one, simply enough.  I did something similar with my DS -> DSLite upgrade, at least.

[NWR_DrewMG]

I promise you that Modern Warfare 2, in Standard Definition in 2009, would not sell 4.7 million copies on day one.  Games like MW2 are HD by default.  They are HD because 1) the hardware exists to make them so, and 2) because the overwhelming majority of the consumers interested in these games want to play them in HD.  No game sells BECAUSE it is HD, but certainly HD is an experience that many gamers are interested in, as evidenced by the sales of games like MW and MW2.

[Plugabugz]

The next console being HD will finally justify Nintendo of Europe to increase the price, again, to £199. It seems logical.

[Chozo Ghost]

I don't understand the obsession some have with HD. Reggie is absolutely right that it isn't enough to warrant a console upgrade over. You get slightly better looking graphics, but that's it. It costs a ton more, and it doesn't make the games more fun or anything.

[that Baby guy]

I think it's more the idea that they do look realistic, but I'd bet that over half of the copies sold were on a 480p setting or worse.  In my experience, the actual truth of Modern Warfare and Call of Duty is that it really is men in their late 20's and early 30's using the game as "Guy's night out" after buddies have moved away.  Their friends like it, they get into it, and so it's a social experience, and not a matter of top-notch graphics.  As long as there's no disadvantage, any type of of video works for them.  If they have an HD tv, they have it for sports.  If they don't, they don't, but the "HD" part of the game played no part in their purchase choice.

[NWR_DrewMG]

According to this article (http://www.myce.com/news/Analysts--HDTV-adoption-rate-doubled-in-past-year-15304/) by December of 2008, we were looking at about a 23% (26 million households) adoption rate of HDTV.  That's only going to get higher this holiday season as prices continue to come down.  I would argue that the type of consumer interested in buying an HDTV probably is the type of consumer interested in playing video games to at least some degree. 

If this number jumps to 30-35%, that's a pretty healthy chunk of the market.  Sure, some of those people probably don't know or don't care that their Wii doesn't output in HD, but can Nintendo continue to count on consumer technological indifference by 2011?  Probably not.  By holiday 2011, I'd imagine that HDTV adoption rates will be upwards of 40-45% and that most people will be surprised to learn their friend doesn't already have one.

[MikeHrusecky]

Just to share an updated figure, Nielsen's estimates as of May (same source as the 23% figure) had household HDTV penetration at slightly over 33.3%. After this holiday, it will very comfortably pass 40%.

By holiday 2010, it's safe to predict it'll pass 50%.

Not that I think an HD "upgrade" will happen. They'll save it for the 6G hardware (which I also think will be late 2011).

[Chozo Ghost]

According to this article (http://www.myce.com/news/Analysts--HDTV-adoption-rate-doubled-in-past-year-15304/) by December of 2008, we were looking at about a 23% (26 million households) adoption rate of HDTV.  That's only going to get higher this holiday season as prices continue to come down.  I would argue that the type of consumer interested in buying an HDTV probably is the type of consumer interested in playing video games to at least some degree. 

If this number jumps to 30-35%, that's a pretty healthy chunk of the market.  Sure, some of those people probably don't know or don't care that their Wii doesn't output in HD, but can Nintendo continue to count on consumer technological indifference by 2011?  Probably not.  By holiday 2011, I'd imagine that HDTV adoption rates will be upwards of 40-45% and that most people will be surprised to learn their friend doesn't already have one.

As long as the Wii has a full 5 year life cycle, that's fine by me. In holiday 2011 the Wii will be 5 years old, so if Nintendo releases a new system then Wii owners won't feel cheated too badly. Nintendo was wise not to include HD with the Wii, though. Back in 2006 when the Wii came out HD was just getting started.

[NWR_DrewMG]

As a gamer, I'm not sure I agree.  As a consumer, and as someone who can look at the sales figures, I completely agree.  It's obvious that the average gamer was not interested in paying the high cost of HD gaming in 2006.  Now that it's down to more "standard" $300 pricing, we're seeing the race really start over.  Problem is that Wii has such a head start, 360 and PS3 can't possibly catch up.

Once again, as a gamer, none of that matters to me.  I want to play the best games, and I will play them on the consoles I need to.  I don't have a PS3 yet, but when The Last Guardian comes out for PS3, I will buy a PS3 and catch up on that library.

[Ian Sane]

I'm not sure if Nintendo will release a new system in quarter 4 of 2011, I think they may wait. It will depend on two things:
1. When their competitors choose to release new systems, and
2. How well the Wii is still sellling.
By that time the Wii userbase will be HUGE. Why give that up before you have to?

I don't think the competitors are going to release new systems anytime soon.  The PS3 is finally at a decent price point.  If Sony released a new console in 2011 then wouldn't they just have the same price problem they had before?  They kind of overreached with the PS3 and to top it would require them to overreach again.  Might as well keep things where they are.  Sony and MS have not really talked about a new console.  With Nintendo it's different because the Wii can't support HD so there was always a clear need for some sort of later console.  I think Sony and MS will release their motion control options and that more or less will be their next console.  They'll be able to feature match the Wii and then Nintendo will likely upgrade to their next console to match the competition's hardware.

[KDR_11k]

There's also the perception problem, when a new generation launches the old one is considered obsolete and about to be phased out, only the #1 of the old gen still gets new games. If Sony and MS stayed behind while Nintendo charges ahead they'd be considered obsolete, even worse if Nintendo decides they can do better than PS360 graphics for fairly cheap and the only claimed advantage of the systems evaporates.

[BwrJim!]

I would think that around the 2017 mark would be a good time for the consoles to go 3d with 120hz tv's being widely available on the market.   They are just making their way back now and you can get that nice True3D at home with the right lcd/graphics card.

While the 360 broke the first three years of its life, They now have (i think) reliable boards and with Sony springing ahead with the Slim, it may just be a battle of design over the next few years.   Do we really think though that new systems wont peak out at the end of 2011? 

  2011 marks the PS3 and Wii's 5th birthday and 360's 6th.  The 360 may actually release something first just to be first to market again while Sony and Nintendo begin to fight it out.  Sony did have a price problem, but it was one they created themselves.  "We want people to need to save up for it" from e3 back in the day.  So at least they got the BlueRay going, and by the time 2011/2012 comes around Digital Distro is supposed to be spiking making the tech a bit worthless.   So they can cut out the price of the drive and all the console makers (read MS and Sony in this one) except for Nintendo will be forging ahead grabbing all the latest DD rights and spreading much Propaganda  to sell themselves as the ultimate box that does everything without DISC!   While Nintendo will show up to the table, clinging onto the older formats with a more robust DD channel downloads and what not. (but anyone else worried that VC and WiiWare titles wont go to the next platform?).   Companies like Capcom will forge ahead with MS and Sony with just a couple releases available to the Nintendo Audience and the world will continue and Insanelord will still be a graphics whore...

hehehe...   you told us to call you that..  that makes 2 for me!

edit::
Oh yeah, as a victim of economy and companies shutting down, I don't see peoples financial clearing up by that time and I am sure the parent companies agree.  With the release of the wands and natal coming out one day, those will most likely take the place of system launches and give the console makers another 3 years of life.   In the computer market, but the biggest thing to happen on the GRFX side of things is the 3D again.   Other than that, I haven't seen any trends that would point to something scaling down for consoles any time soon.   So, my prediction is that the systems out on market are going to stretch out till 2015, where Nintendo will launch 1 or possibly 2 years earlier than the rest ( and carve out a better release schedule from the competitors)as it will be most definitely time for that box to be retired.   Of course, there is always the Phantom...