Topic: Demand for DJ Hero Below Expectations According to Analysts

[NWR_pap64]

The lack of interest in music games is partially to blame.
 http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newsArt.cfm?artid=20196

 The demand for DJ Hero, a Guitar Hero spin-off title based around the DJ culture, is "well below expectations" according to analysts Cowan and Company. They believe that the slowdown of interest in music games, fading buzz around the Guitar Hero franchise, and rising price of music games during an economic recession are the culprits.    

Analyst Doug Creutz mentioned that "On DJ Hero, despite some recent positive comments from company management about pre-orders, we remain very cautious about the title's prospects at launch".    

According to a survey of online retailers, demand for the title is well below what was expected to be a successful launch. Creutz predicts that the title will sell around 600,000 copies in the US during its fourth quarter (down from the 1 million he originally forecasted), but he expects that a sequel will help establish a brand for Activision.

[TJ Spyke]

I tend to ignore what these analysts say since they are often wrong.

Anyways, I think people just aren't interested in a DJ game. I know i'm not, especially not for the price they want. Even with the turntable, I wouldn't spend more than $60 on it. One reason is that I don't have much interest in pretending to be a DJ, the second is because I hate the mixes in all of the videos I have seen of the game.

[NWR_Lindy]

I went to check this out at Best Buy, but a couple of business casual douches kept hogging it.  Serves me right for going in during the noon hour.

DJ Hero is definitely more niche than Guitar Hero.  The catch with DJ Hero is that not all rap fans give a crap about being a DJ, or the DJ culture in general.  They won't automatically grab the Lil' Wayne audience with this game.

[Mop it up]

Did they ever expect this to do as well as Guitar Hero and the like? Because it is highly unlikely that it will.

[TJ Spyke]

Maybe they hoped that putting a guitar mode in would help (one play can play using the turntable, another player can play with a guitar using the standard Guitar Hero gameplay).

[KDR_11k]

Music games suffer from too many trips to the well, that particular resource is overexploited and maybe next time Kotick should think about what exploitation means.

[Plugabugz]

I went to check this out at Best Buy, but a couple of business casual douches kept hogging it.  Serves me right for going in during the noon hour.

DJ Hero is definitely more niche than Guitar Hero.  The catch with DJ Hero is that not all rap fans give a crap about being a DJ, or the DJ culture in general.  They won't automatically grab the Lil' Wayne audience with this game.

I refer to "business casual douches" as "lunch time rats".

If they were expecting to actually grab the Wayne audience, then pricing it into deep space is the wrong way to go about it.

[vudu]

Anyways, I think people just aren't interested in a DJ game. I know i'm not, especially not for the price they want. Even with the turntable, I wouldn't spend more than $60 on it. One reason is that I don't have much interest in pretending to be a DJ, the second is because I hate the mixes in all of the videos I have seen of the game.

Something tells me that you aren't the target market for this game and perhaps you should stop trying to start a flame war.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Target market is smaller than Walmart market, confirmed.

[TJ Spyke]

Anyways, I think people just aren't interested in a DJ game. I know i'm not, especially not for the price they want. Even with the turntable, I wouldn't spend more than $60 on it. One reason is that I don't have much interest in pretending to be a DJ, the second is because I hate the mixes in all of the videos I have seen of the game.

Something tells me that you aren't the target market for this game and perhaps you should stop trying to start a flame war.

Actually, based on interviews with FreeStyleGames, I AM the target market. They said they are going after people who might not be into hip-hop or not into being a DJ.

[vudu]

You mean Activision wants more people to buy their products?  Unthinkable!  Don't get fooled by marketing speak.

[NWR_Lindy]

It wouldn't be a flame war, though.  It would be a WAR on the DANCE FLOOR!!!


THIS...IS...DJ HERO!!!

[BlackNMild2k1]

My sister works at BB and she says the game is selling like crazy and people are playing the demo they haves set up all day everyday. [/anecdotal evidence]

[Stratos]

It's the quiet before the holiday sales rush storm for one thing.

Secondly, we have a pretty crammed market this Fall/Christmas in the music game department.

You already have two different Guitar Hero games (5 & Band Hero) along with two Rock Band games (LEGO and Beatles) not to mention the people who may be content to hold on to World Tour and/or Rock Band 2 and just buy DLC if anything. Also you have the new DDR games among other music/rhythm based games. Also people are still buying RB 1 & 2 and the Track Packs and all the old Guitar Hero games like Metallica, Greatest Hits and others.

So even if people are still buying music games, there are at least 6 different new music games on the market competing for consumer dollars and shelf space. Something is going to lose out here and Activision releasing 3 different console music games are cannibalizing their own market. These games may all win in the long haul, but people can't expect every one of them to be instant million sellers, even with a powerful brand name behind them.

[D_Average]

Should have gone with GlowsTick Hero instead.  Especially with the upcoming lotions on the horizons.

[Deguello]

It's not really surprising that DJ Hero might struggle.  The whole music genre has been driven into the ground every single year, and with the release of RockBand: Beatles, the music is only going to go downhill from here.

Until they get a Karaoke collection of Michael Jackson, all we can do is watch this plastic-guitar music game genre slowly die (as I sit smiling.)

Should have gone with GlowsTick Hero instead.  Especially with the upcoming lotions on the horizons.

*sigh* must you poison this thread with your nonsense, too?

[that Baby guy]

So I take it the game has at least sold more than 500 copies at non-Wal-Mart retailers, eh?  Better than SpyBorgs!

Also...

The music-game genre isn't really one that can be over-saturated.  The more experience developers get adding in gameplay to songs, the more programs are written, the more possible it is to create songs for cheap that can sell in insignificant numbers.  All it means is that it's a market that will always be able to consistently make money, and we've reached that point.  Personally, I don't see a huge problem with it.  We're taking up talent from Activision, a developer with very little unique and original IP, and Harmonix, another developer who's sole purpose has been to create music games on a level like this.

The reason it'll last is that people have enjoyed creating, playing, and listening to music for at least thousands of years.  This is just another opportunity to do the same.

[Deguello]

All it means is that it's a market that will always be able to consistently make money, and we've reached that point.  Personally, I don't see a huge problem with it.

Viacom hasn't made money on Rock Band yet.  Guitar Hero's sales are dwindling pretty sharply.  I'm not sure how this reads as "healthy market" but you are free to your opinion.

[that Baby guy]

But Viacom chief exec Phillipe Dauman is still confident in the Rock Band franchise. "We continue to feel very good about the long-term value that this franchise holds, particularly as we see the downloadable content portion of the business continue to grow," he said in an earnings call listened in on by Gamasutra. Dauman said that Viacom has sold over 50 million songs via disc or online for Rock Band.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24598

Sure, they haven't made money yet.  That's the way to go by things.  Like when Microsoft quit after about seven years of not making money on the Xbox.  The market's still healthy, but the cost of entry is steep, that's all.

[Deguello]

Well he's not going to say "You're right, Rock Band's a money loser.  We're going to axe it."

But if the music market is shrinking, which it is, and you haven't made money yet.  You aren't going to if it continues to shrink.  Which it looks like it's going to.  Ask Konami about DDR.

And MS and the Xbox is a poor example, because MS still hasn't made money on the Xbox, or even the Xbox 360 for that matter, despite showing a few profitable quarters.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I believe that even MS' profitable quarters are a little misleading.
Something about debt reshuffling into other more profitable divisions where they can be swallowed whole and show more black ink across the board. But that's for a whole different conversation.

[Stratos]

But if the music market is shrinking, which it is, and you haven't made money yet.  You aren't going to if it continues to shrink.  Which it looks like it's going to.  Ask Konami about DDR.

New DDR games released yesterday say 'hi'. They still sell well enough. The Wii ones seem to be doing well.

DDR did shrink in popularity, but it has stabilized and is a sustainable genre. They seem able to release at least one version a year for each system and also make special editions like the Disney one.

So I suspect that the instrument rhythm games will shrink but stabilize as well. In the end I expect the Bock Band platform to survive and Activision will definitely slow down it's release of Guitar/Band Hero games. Both series can survive in a compressed music game market.

[D_Average]

Sorry Deg, not everyone can be as refined and insightful as you.  DJ Hero is serious buisness.  My bad.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Music gaming is dying off just like Tony Hawk did.

Activision is to blame, while EA just plays Follow-the-Leader into the pit of financial despair.

[Pale]

It's obvious that Deg and D_Average don't like each other.  Can you do me a favor and just not interact with each other?

D_Average's comment in this particular thread is no different than half the joke's someone like Pro makes on these boards that everyone thinks is hilarious.  Deg you are making it more personal than it has to be and just inciting a response from D_Average.

Seriously guys, just avoid each other.