Topic: Microsoft's Xbox Kinect - Nov 4th 2010

[BlackNMild2k1]

I see it as Nintendo introduced motion control in steps.

The first games were waggle to ease the new gamers in, but there are also more complex games that use Motion correctly like SMG2 & WSR. There is something for everyone, and the early/easy games were made to make gaming not seem so complex.

MS has oversimplified which is actually gonna over complicate things while Sony has made Wiimote++ and applied complex/advanced motion controls to their games without any sort of built in learning curve. Sony just kinda drops their consumers in the deep and and says "swim".

I think the difference here is that Nintendo realized that you have crawl before you can walk and you have to walk before you can run. The Wiimote was crawling, M+ was walking and now Move is running. But is the Sony audience ready to run?

[King of Twitch]

"Motion control's image is already damaged by the Wii.  Sony and MS are only going the casual route with their products because that's what Nintendo has done."

This don't make no sense at all. You've said that motion controls are great in MG2 and MP3, it's clear they work great for WSR, and now we're back to

motion controls=CASUALIZATION
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MS and Sony are copying something with a ruined reputation to ride off Nintendo's success at DGF, which has also forced third parties to want to DGF
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MS and Sony will only create games with motion controls in order to also DGF
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facepalm

[Guitar Smasher]

I see it as Nintendo introduced motion control in steps.

The first games were waggle to ease the new gamers in, but there are also more complex games that use Motion correctly like SMG2. There is something for everyone, and the early/easy games were made to make gaming not seem so complex.

MS has oversimplified which is actually gonna over complicate things while Sony has made Wiimote++ and applied complex/advanced motion controls to their games without any sort of built in learning curve. Sony just kinda drops their consumers in the deep and and says "swim".

I think the difference here is that Nintendo realized that you have crawl before you can walk and you have to walk before you can run. The Wiimote was crawling, M+ was walking and now Move is running. But is the Sony audience ready to run?

Sony has been on the record as to wanting to steal the Wii audience away from Nintendo.  Remember, along the lines of "we're targeting Wii gamers who are looking for something more."  They aren't trying to find a whole new untapped group of potential gamers like Nintendo did, so they don't have to start off small.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Nintendo's new audience won't be buying a PS3 because they want more. They are more than likely content with the item they already bought. If they upgrade, it likely won't be until the Wii2 when there is another HYPE Buzz Xmas MUST HAVE Rush going on again. Another "Tickle Me Elmo' type craze.

Now if they are trying to convert jaded Wii Core gamers that are looking for more out of motion controls and hardcore gaming, then that strategy might work, but wouldn't most of them already have a PS3 or Xbox360?

Everyone else doesn't care about graphics and aren't that into gaming where they will own multiple machines. These are the people that are happy with WiiSports/Resort, WiiFit/Plus, WiiPlay and various other simple games that are for the most part, pick up and play. These are the people that even if they bought a PS3, they would hook it up to their HDTV with composite cables and then talk about how they don't see the big deal about Bluray or PS3 graphics. They don't know the difference and don't really care. They aren't upgrading till upgrading is the NEXT BIG THING.

[Chozo Ghost]

I wonder what sort of injuries and lawsuits Natal will create. You thought the red ring of death was bad? Just wait until people start dying for real.

[Guitar Smasher]

Nintendo's new audience won't be buying a PS3 because they want more. They are more than likely content with the item they already bought. If they upgrade, it likely won't be until the Wii2 when there is another HYPE Buzz Xmas MUST HAVE Rush going on again. Another "Tickle Me Elmo' type craze.

Now if they are trying to convert jaded Wii Core gamers that are looking for more out of motion controls and hardcore gaming, then that strategy might work, but wouldn't most of them already have a PS3 or Xbox360?

Everyone else doesn't care about graphics and aren't that into gaming where they will own multiple machines. These are the people that are happy with WiiSports/Resort, WiiFit/Plus, WiiPlay and various other simple games that are for the most part, pick up and play. These are the people that even if they bought a PS3, they would hook it up to their HDTV with composite cables and then talk about how they don't see the big deal about Bluray or PS3 graphics. They don't know the difference and don't really care. They aren't upgrading till upgrading is the NEXT BIG THING.

I didn't say Sony's plan would work...  Just mentioning how the supposed complexity of their controller ties into their self-described focus.

[Ian Sane]

This don't make no sense at all. You've said that motion controls are great in MG2 and MP3, it's clear they work great for WSR, and now we're back to

motion controls=CASUALIZATION

Three games doesn't change the perception.  The perception is there or third parties wouldn't almost exclusively dump casual focused garbage on the Wii and Sony and MS wouldn't be all casual focused with their motion control.  Like it or not the videogame industry associates motion control with casual gaming.
 
Regarding jaded Wii owners I agree with BlackNMild2k1 that they probably already bought a PS3 or X360.  Hell that was like the way you did things if you wanted more.  Hell, I figure that jaded Wii owners are the last people to want anything to do with Move or Natal.  If you have a problem with the Wii odds are motion control is a big part of that.  I personally like how PS3 games use normal responsive controls and that I don't have to fight with waggle the whole time.  So for me to buy Move, well ****, Sony has to REALLY impress me.
 
And as for the existing Wii casual userbase, I don't think they'll buy these.  I wonder if they'll even buy a Wii 2.  The Wii was the "it" item a few years back and created a frenzy.  Can Nintendo recreate that again?  I think we still have to see if these people want to regularly buy videogames or if the Wii was just a one-off purchase.  In my day-to-day life the Wii is no longer the hot topic.  I know a fair chunk of people that bought a Wii for Wii Sports, bought Wii Play and Wii Fit and maybe a Rock Band or Guitar Hero game and that's it - they haven't used it in over a year.  They're not talking about NSMB Wii or Super Mario Galaxy 2.  We are.  They're not.
 
A big part of the Wii's sudden success was that "OMG YOU SWING YOUR ARM AND THE DUDE ON SCREEN SWINGS THE RACKET" reaction.  Wii Sports was a monumental game.  How will Move or Natal or even the Wii 2 create that kind of a reaction?  We don't know what the Wii 2 will be so maybe Nintendo will come up with something.  But I don't think ANYONE is going to see Natal and get blown away but what looks like the same thing but without a controller.
 
I think the only strategy that could work, and Sony has sort of hinted at it, is to find a good use for it in hardcore games which is something Nintendo hasn't really done.  While Nintendo is showing off Wii Party, you show off Halo with good responsive motion controls and Nintendo looks like a joke in comparison.

[Luigi Dude]

I think the only strategy that could work, and Sony has sort of hinted at it, is to find a good use for it in hardcore games which is something Nintendo hasn't really done.  While Nintendo is showing off Wii Party, you show off Halo with good responsive motion controls and Nintendo looks like a joke in comparison.

If Microsoft or Sony were going to do this, they should have done it back in 2008 when Nintendo embarrassed themselves with their Wii Music performance.  That's not going to work at this years E3 though since Nintendo will be showing off Zelda Wii with Motion+.

We all know the power of Zelda, and the fact that this Zelda is going to require Motion+ shows that Nintendo has something big in mind.  When you have one of Nintendo's top teams who've been working with Motion controls for over 4 years now working on the upcoming Zelda, nothing Microsoft and Sony do is going to come close to what Zelda will show.

[Guitar Smasher]

I think the only strategy that could work, and Sony has sort of hinted at it, is to find a good use for it in hardcore games which is something Nintendo hasn't really done.  While Nintendo is showing off Wii Party, you show off Halo with good responsive motion controls and Nintendo looks like a joke in comparison.

Until Zelda Wii, right Ian?

[King of Twitch]

Wrong. A 4th motion control game isn't going to change perceptions that motion controls=CASUALIZATION.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Three games?  4th game?  What-on-earth games are people talking about?  Sounds like complete make-believe.

[King of Twitch]

Read up a little higher. Apparently, even after some great motion-controlled games like TP, MP3, WSR, or MG2, there exists a perception due entirely to Wii Sports' success and Wii Music's existence that motion controls mean an automatic casualization and destruction of gaming, which MS and Sony hope to imitate.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

The thread is also forgetting Mario Kart Wii (most successful racing game of all time; login to WFC and checkout how the player lists are dominated by Golden Wheel users) and Wii Fit Plus (foot board gaming is still motion gaming, to further add to Ian's displeasure).

Really, thanks to the implementation of steering wheeling and Fat Feet gaming in addition to traditional Waggle Gaming, Nintendo is still way ahead of the curve.  Sony will have to release their "Stay" board in addition to "Move" while MS has to release an aerobic step for its "Watal" device just to catch up to Nintendo's innovations.

If Sony and MS hope to imitate any form of Nintendo's success, they must avoid relying on the non-casuals and think very hard about kiddie non-games.

[broodwars]

Really, thanks to the implementation of steering wheeling and Fat Feet gaming in addition to traditional Waggle Gaming, Nintendo is still way ahead of the curve.  Sony will have to release their "Stay" board in addition to "Move" while MS has to release an aerobic step for its "Watal" device just to catch up to Nintendo's innovations.

Uh, the 360's had steering wheel peripherals for years for real racing games, not broken crap like Mario Kart Wii.  And arcades had them for longer than that.  For that matter, arcades (and consoles as well, right?) previously had "Fat Feet" gaming for years in Dance Dance Revolution.
 
And everyone's had the equivalent of Wii Fit in their homes for probably their entire lifetimes: they're called "bathroom scales".

[TJ Spyke]

Mario Kart Wii may be a little boring, it is not even close to being "broken".

[broodwars]

Mario Kart Wii may be a little boring, it is not even close to being "broken".

When you can run a near-perfect race and get bombarded by a combination of a blue shell; several red shells; and the lightning bolt right at the finish line so every other racer on the course finishes before you, the game is broken.

[Guitar Smasher]

Mario Kart Wii may be a little boring, it is not even close to being "broken".

When you can run a near-perfect race and get bombarded by a combination of a blue shell; several red shells; and the lightning bolt right at the finish line so every other racer on the course finishes before you, the game is broken.

No, it means it's not the racing game for you.  I prefer the craziness and 'screw your competitor' attitude over 'who can run the cleanest race' type of racing game.  It's not broken.

[TJ Spyke]

brood, then every Mario Kart game and every kart racer in general is broken. If you do run a perfect or near perfect race, then you will win, at least in the thousands of Mario Kart races i've done. Whenever I lost it was because I did something to screw up. The only thing ever broken in the series was in Mario Kart DS (I am talking about snaking, which ruined online play for the game).

Geez, this is like the people who bitch about items in the Smash Bros. games. It's not more "real" with items turned off. If you don't want to play with items, then go play another game because Smash Bros. without items is like playing Madden and saying that passing plays are not allowed.

[broodwars]

brood, then every Mario Kart game and every kart racer in general is broken. If you do run a perfect or near perfect race, then you will win, at least in the thousands of Mario Kart races i've done. Whenever I lost it was because I did something to screw up. The only thing ever broken in the series was in Mario Kart DS (I am talking about snaking, which ruined online play for the game).

Geez, this is like the people who bitch about items in the Smash Bros. games. It's not more "real" with items turned off. If you don't want to play with items, then go play another game because Smash Bros. without items is like playing Madden and saying that passing plays are not allowed.

No, Mario Kart has been broken ever since the Blue Shell was rendered unblockable and sporting an AoE effect in Doubledash, and the AI has been rendered more of a cheating jerk with each installment.

I have no qualms with Smash Bros.' use of items because most of them can either be blocked or dodged, and everyone has a chance at the uber weapons when they appear on-screen.  In Mario Kart, it's all decided by chance with the most devasting items only going to those who don't have a prayer at actually winning the race.  Plus, the AI will actually attack each other in Smash Bros. rather than stocking up on items and ganging up exclusively on you.

[TJ Spyke]

I still say that has more to do with you. A good player will still be able to win.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

If one still complains about the AI opponents in Mario Kart Wii (like, they should be blamed for your loss), one's driving must still be poor.  The competition found online is European Extreme in comparison to the offline AI, and they provide greater opportunities for skill development.

Millions of Soccer Moms sporting Golden Wheels can't lie.

[SixthAngel]

I think we still have to see if these people want to regularly buy videogames or if the Wii was just a one-off purchase.  In my day-to-day life the Wii is no longer the hot topic.  I know a fair chunk of people that bought a Wii for Wii Sports, bought Wii Play and Wii Fit and maybe a Rock Band or Guitar Hero game and that's it - they haven't used it in over a year.  They're not talking about NSMB Wii or Super Mario Galaxy 2.  We are.  They're not.

This anecdotal evidence sounds very similar to the ps2 so I don't get whats changed.  I know of people who bought the ps2 and picked up Madden, Guitar Hero and maybe one more game.
This is what happens when you have the number one console and have millions more sold than the competition.

As always you have people who aren't fans using everything they can as a negative but its not.  The "perception" is a bunch of people talking on internet forums about how the Wii essentially isn't geeky enough for them because it has games for girls and adults.

I have absolutely no faith in Natal.  We have seen real demonstations and nothing fantastic.  E3 isn't some big reveal, if they had some amazing I ea we'd probably would have seen it already.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Investors say: Microsoft should stick to Windows
Apparently Natal will flop and Investors want to minimize expected losses

On June 15, at a video game convention in Los Angeles, Microsoft (MSFT)   will unveil a little box of outsize importance. Code-named Project   Natal, the device will be an add-on to Microsoft's aging Xbox 360 game   console, which has shipped 40 million units in five years. Xbox sales have been slowing since Sony (SNE) cut the price of the PlayStation 3 console last summer, but Microsoft hopes Natal will revive the Xbox—because it lets users play games without a controller. Just drive your pretend car or swing your virtual baseball bat and Natal, which sits in front of the TV and has built-in sensors, picks up the motion. Following the event in L.A., Microsoft is launching an ad blitz leading up to a consumer release in October.
 
  Microsoft needs Natal—or whatever it's called by the time it goes on sale—to be a hit. The technology is inarguably cool, and is a rare bright spot in Microsoft's decade-old—and thus far mostly dissappointing—push to move beyond PCs and into game consoles, music   players, and smartphones. Operating income at its Entertainment &   Devices unit, which is responsible for those products, is expected to   come in at $773 million for the year that ends June 30, according to UBS Securities (UBS). That's a 10 percent operating margin, compared with 72 percent for Windows, its most profitable business. While the Xbox is a   strong No. 2 in the video game market (after the Nintendo Wii)*, the entertainment division has lost $8.6 billion on sales of $49 billion since 1999, estimates Katherine Egbert of Jeffries & Co. An initiative to build Internet-based TV systems has yet to take off, and its iPod-like Zune music players have bombed. While Apple (AAPL) just sold its two millionth iPad, Microsoft recently scrapped a tablet code-named Courier. In smartphones, Microsoft's share in the first quarter was 6.8 percent, down from 10.2 percent the year before.
 
  The Natal device, which is expected to retail for about $100, won't sell in volumes high enough to matter much financially for the world's largest software company. But since it works with the current Xbox 360   console, it could reinvigorate sales of that device. That means Microsoft could put off having to field a new console, which would lose hundreds of millions of dollars for a few years; profits come from   higher-margin sales of games it creates such as the Halo franchise, as well as its cut on Xbox titles made by other companies. Natal could also fuel greater interest in Microsoft's most impressive consumer play, the Xbox Live online service. More than 23 million gamers use it to play each other over the Net, as well as to download movies and music.
 
  If Natal takes off, Microsoft might be able to extend its reach into other platforms. It could be built into PC monitors and big-screen TVs, allowing consumers to control those devices by speech or motion, moving   family photos the way Tom Cruise moved pictures and videos around in Minority Report. Forrester Research (FORR) analyst Sarah Rotman Epps envisions families synching their Natal-based Xbox console with Windows-based tablets such as the new model just announced by ASUSTeK, so each family member could easily download movies or books. "That would make Microsoft relevant for the next decade," she says.
 
  Even as the company hypes Natal and its new mobile software, Windows   Phone7, investors don't expect smash hits; in fact, they'd settle for   small losses on these and other gadgets. "It's hard to make the case   this has been a good use of shareholder capital," says Todd S. Lowenstein, who runs HighMark Capital's value fund. "I don't fault them for trying this stuff, but investors are getting impatient." Other   investors suggest that, like IBM (IBM) a decade ago, Microsoft should   refocus its efforts on its massively profitable PC and corporate software businesses. Its cash from operations last quarter alone was $7.4billion, a company record. Yet its shares are down about 50percent   since Steve Ballmer took over as CEO on Jan.13, 2000. "The stock would   go up if Microsoft exited its consumer businesses," says Bill Whyman of   ISI Group.
 
  Whyman knows Microsoft won't give up on entertainment. The company has long poured money into maturing markets from word processing to Web   browsers, beating market pioneers by underpricing them into submission. "Ballmer's answer is always, 'We'll keep coming,' " says Whyman. "That's not a very comforting answer."

*LOL, strong 2nd place!!? more like distant second and almost in 3rd. PS3 is stepping on 360's heel every step of the way. Wii is jogging backwards just to see what the hell they are doing back there.


I'm not seeing a whole lot of confidence in Natal coming from this investor aimed article. I wonder if E3 will change their minds (even though they seem more focused on profits now than marketshare later)

[Chozo Ghost]

Yeah, the XBOX thing is just a huge money pit for them that hasn't made any profit in all that time. They should never have gotten into the console business in the first place. Maybe NATAL will deal them a blow that will FORCE them to drop the Xbox and go back to making buggy Windows OSes as they are known for.

[Ian Sane]

This brings up an interesting point.  Despite Xbox being clearly a strong brand name in the console industry, when does MS pull out?  At some point it has to make money.  The idea was to lose money in the shortterm to gain a market foothold for the longterm.  Well they got the market foothold they wanted but it still has to make money or the plan has failed.  How long do they continue with it and at what point does it make sense to cut their losses?

This would make for a very interesting situation in the console wars where a console maker with a strong marketshare and relevent console just bailed.  We know MS hasn't made a dime but I'll bet the average Xbox user would be shocked to find out that their favourite console, which seemed to be doing fine, has been discontinued.