Topic: Microsoft's Xbox Kinect - Nov 4th 2010

[BlackNMild2k1]

I never thought of that.  You think Minority Report but real life isn't so simple, especially without the actual 3d hologram technology.  People need to know the right gesture to grab the screen, the right pointing gesture, the right selecting gesture, the right unselect/move back gesture, what happens when you do two gestures at once, etc.

I imagine you will here a lot of disappointed people (by a lot I mean the few people who buy it) when it first comes out because people will be really upset the technology isn't what they expected/doesn't work how they want it to.  I especially expect the message boards to explode when they don't get what they imagine.

People will see movies like Minority Report and more recently Gamer and expect Natal to work like that. They will be really confused and very disappointed when it doesn't.
I've always thought that they tech itself will work fine, but it's initial application into gaming won't be very intuitive nor will it be all that fun. Worst of all it will all be very optional and therefore not used very much. People will pick this up at first and then never use it past the "hardcores" using it for head tracking and voice recognition that have been patched into their favorite FPS's.

A few years later I expect the tech to resurface in some other consumer electronic for 3D menu manipulation, like a HTPC setup for the living room, or some other thing that I can't think of right now.

[Ian Sane]

I think these analysts don't actually play games so they don't think of the specifics.  We play games.  When we think of a potential issue we're probably thinking about how it would affect our own videogame experience.  Because we're gamers we can put ourselves in the shoes of the person using the product.

When the Wii remote was first revealed I was concerned about the precision of a controller that detects motions and gestures.  And as successful as the Wii is I was completely dead on about that concern.  Everyone has had that moment where the damn thing just didn't do what you wanted it to or you accidentally moved the controller a bit and Mario did a spin-jump (my brother dies in NSMB all the time because of this).  Since I'm familiar with videogames and have used different controllers before I immediately could imagine what it would be like to use it.

Sony's "Arc"?  It seems similar enough to the remote that I imagine it will work similarly with similar pros and cons.  The use of the Eye Toy might create issues though if something gets in the way.  It sounds like certain lights could **** stuff up too.  The idea does however sound similar enough to the remote that it will work okay.

Natal however creates all sorts of issues that a yutz who never plays videogames and just makes assumptions wouldn't think of.  They see people dancing around and stuff happening on the screen and they go "wow!"  I look at it and think "what if I scratch my face while playing?  How can I pause quickly if I have to do a gesture to indicate it?  What if I'm too short, too tall, too fat or too skinny?  What if I'm not flexible enough to do what the game wants (you can always "fake it" on the Wii)?  What if someone else walks in the way?  Does it think that's part of you?"  Analysts who don't play games don't think of this stuff.  They're wowed by the superfiscial nature of it.

I think so much about why the Wii works is because there still are buttons and there's still a tool involved.  It's still all controlled by this controller in your hand.  I think that just provides a better feeling of control.  You know that if you need to not **** something up and save right now you can just push the + button and do it.  On Natal what if it misinterprets your gesture and instead of pausing to save it causes your character to jump off the cliff next to you?  If Nintendo made it so the remote had no buttons on it all I can't imagine how you could even play anything with it.  And Microsoft is taking it a step further.

[Caterkiller]

I can understand that, this being a Nintendo forum, there's some latent hostility towards the competition. However, as a diehard Nintendo fanboi and Wii-only gamer, I have faith that Natal will deliver. The Wiimote wasn't perfect either, and it still accomplished what it set out to do. Microsoft demonstrated the Natal tech in E3 2009, and the demonstration didn't have any major hiccups. Since then, even with the chip removal, I'm not willing to bet that MS will show up with an unworkable product at the Natal launch. It'll have its quirks and caveats, but it'll be enough.

I don't believe that Natal will ship out completely buggy (though it's not really out of the question considering Microsoft hardly has a respectable hardware track record), but I do question the device's popularity.  The blue ocean gamer already has a Wii and will not bother purchasing a second console, so Microsoft will have to rely on their hardcore fan base.  Whether or not they will throw away their pride (which they have gradually built up through Wii mockery and the like) to spaz out in front of their televisions is yet to be seen.  I expect little more than EyeToy levels of interest. 

Reggie, how would you explain this discrepancy? You work for Nintendo, so you should be able to tell us if Nintendo is buying back millions of Wiis in order to artificially inflate its market share.

It helps making actual PROFIT so we can buy back our consoles, unlike our competitors.

Oh, and steal my visual signature again and I'll punt you. 

Even if you aren't the real Reggie, you still are the real Reggie! What ever that means.

[Chozo Ghost]

Well, one good thing about NATAL is we won't have remotes being thrown accidently across rooms and caving in other people's skulls.... (which I don't think ever actually happened with the wii either, come to think of it)

[Stogi]

I'm actually interested to see how Natal turns out; bad or otherwise. I honestly think the homebrew community might have a ball with this.

[oohhboy]

I wonder if it has third leg gesture controls. If it does the industry would be all over it.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Hot Coffee in front of the TV instead of in the TV.  Sometimes on the TV.

[EasyCure]

Sow how long until the Natal++ comes out and will ian say the same things he said about the wiimote/motion+ (about it being a ripoff to customers)?

[mac<censored>]

Well, one good thing about NATAL is we won't have remotes being thrown accidently across rooms and caving in other people's skulls....

Yeah, but you will have people hurling their bodies about wildly, which could be even more dangerous and lawsuit-inducing...

Hmm, since the xbox is most popular in the U.S., make that "hurling their massive bodies about wildly."

[Chozo Ghost]

It might trigger a few heart attacks. American gamers aren't used to moving their bodies. Moving ones arm ala the wiimote is one thing, but it is another thing  to move the entire body about. The balance board didn't really count because it has a 330 pound weight limit, which meant it was off limits to American gamers. But Natal has no weight limit, and that is where the real danger lies.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Project Natal Prototype(?) Spotted

We're not sure if this is a hint toward the final form factor, or merely the simplest conglomeration of parts available to get working Project Natal sensors in the hands of developers, but The Seattle Times has posted a picture today a developer prototype of the motion-sensing unit. The seems clearly slimmer in proportion than the soundbar-styled renders we've seen thus far, but also quite a bit different than the hacked together hardware used for the Jimmy Fallon demo of the tech. Of course, the fact that the assembly has been slapped atop a Gorillapod makes it hard to believe this is near-final hardware, but it's still fun to see this stuff as evolves toward our living rooms.

[BlackNMild2k1]

A new P. Natal Ball Slap demo is up on the interwebs
http://techland.com/2010/02/19/in-which-we-demo-project-natal/


and Natal had a guest appearance on last weeks episode of Smallville
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4HomEnDzXI

[BeautifulShy]

You know Microsoft keeps showing off these little demos on shows and yet there isn't much to the games.

[Ian Sane]

That Natal prototype looks like a car rearview mirror.  Or a minature spider variation of Johnny 5 from Short Circuit.

Isn't this supposed to come out this year?  And we're still getting little demos and no real information.  Maybe they're just saving it for E3.  But right now this feels like it's years away.  It still just feels like a concept instead of a real product.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I don't know if anyone care but here it the technical specs for a system that is very comparable to Natal
http://www.primesense.com/category/reference_design

[KDR_11k]

That Natal prototype looks like a car rearview mirror.  Or a minature spider variation of Johnny 5 from Short Circuit.

Isn't this supposed to come out this year?  And we're still getting little demos and no real information.  Maybe they're just saving it for E3.  But right now this feels like it's years away.  It still just feels like a concept instead of a real product.

Microsoft pulled crap like that with the Surface too, it was supposed to be out years ago and I think there's still not more than a few prototypes made. It's a PR stunt to draw attention away from competitors with a "superior" version supposedly coming out "any moment now" (oh, hey, what happened to that new file system Vista was supposed to have, by the way?). MS also benefits from leaks because they build hype so it's likely that they even encourage them. Notice that Nintendo rarely leaks anything, that's because Nintendo makes real inventions and leaking them would severely damage the company.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Jason VandenBerghe, Creative director of Red Steel 2, is skeptical of Natal.

VGD: Is this the sort of game that would only work on the Wii?

VandenBerghe: No, I think it could work fantastically with the Sony wand. With this kind of game you need a thumbstick, thatā€™s the only real constraint. For walking around at least, I havenā€™t seen a solution. Microsoft may come forward and show me something I havenā€™t seen before, which makes me understand how you can play a first-person action game like this that requires this intense finesse and accuracy in your motion, and not have a controller in your hand of some kind.

But I think we need to have a thumbstick. I think this is probably a more natural fit for the Sony side of things right now, but I donā€™t think Microsoft is showing all of its cards right now either. And thatā€™s not an insider release ā€“ I donā€™t know. I just donā€™t buy it. Thereā€™s more coming, there has to be more. And you know what, I would love to play these games.

I would also, for the record, love to play an on-rails first-person swordfighting game with Natal. Love to! House of the Dead with a sword? Sounds fantastic to me.
[...]
Iā€™m a realist. It really bugs a lot of people I think. I think game designers are supposed to talk about things that are impossible, and are supposed to share grandiose visions that never come true, and Iā€™m not down with that. I donā€™t like that.

Iā€™m a realist and I prefer to be able to follow through on the promises and hopes and make it actually happen. Itā€™s hard, and it means that now and then you have to say ā€˜I donā€™t really see itā€™. And again Iā€™m not writing it off ā€“ there are a lot of really smart people at Microsoft, and Iā€™m sure theyā€™ve got answers to these problems, but I just havenā€™t seen them. So Iā€™m looking forward to the big reveal.

I'm glad he can come out and say it. Because I'm not really seeing it either.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Looks like MS is already kicking the Natal Marketing Machine in gear...

Microsoft turns to celebs for Natal

Marketing drive gearing up to target non-gamers and potential new Xbox audience

Microsoft will directly challenge Nintendoā€™s mass-market media efforts when it launches Natal later this year.

MCV understands that format-holder Microsoft is already planning early promotional efforts for the camera device to include celebrity endorsements and coverage in non-games media.

Microsoft this week invited an ā€˜elite selection of mediaā€™ and non-games firms to attend a VIP showcase. The likes of Vogue and Glamour have been targeted in a bid to build awareness for its upcoming motion-tracking peripheral.

By courting areas like the parenting press, toy retailers and publications which primarily cater for non-gamers, the format holder will be directly chasing the core Wii audience Nintendo has built in the last four years.

MCV understands that this weekā€™s tour was designed to introduce the device to non-gaming specialists and educate non-gamers.

I'm not really worried about how Nintendo is gonna respond to all this "HYPE" building, but more interested in how Sony is gonna respond to MS and and overshadow the Natal "HYPE".

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Celebs get a new venue for looking stupid.  Just what we need.

[ThePerm]

i dont care what celebs think, just make movies or music and don't give me a reason to boycott!

[BlackNMild2k1]

Do I smell a Just Dance port coming?
http://projectnatalgames.org/project-natal-breakdancing-video/

Maybe if Ubi was smart...
But since lag is such an important issue around the internet, someone took the time to also do this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjlehekgXDQ&feature=player_embedded

[BlackNMild2k1]

Naughty Dog co-founder: Natalā€™s killer app ā€œmay not be a gameā€
Jason Rubin - Former Head of Naughty Dog, Ex Sony Suit and man behind Uncharted

Project Natalā€™s killer app may not be a videogame, Naughty Dog co-founder and current social game startup Monkey Godsā€™ Chief Monkey Jason Rubin believes. Itā€™s more about the interface, he says, and how it works into the rest of our living room setup.

ā€œThings like Natal are going to revolutionize far more than gaming. I think putting Natal in the Xbox gives the Xbox an opportunity to become a lot more than just a game machine and I think there are things you can do outside of gaming that will justify buying the Natal. I firmly believe that if Microsoft plays its cards right that they could sell far more Xboxes next generation ā€¦ they could sell it to people that donā€™t play games,ā€ Rubin said on the latest episode of Bonus Round.

ā€œThe amazing thing about Natal is that never before has a piece of hardware hooked up to your television been able to recognize you and who you are, had information about you and what you like, and been able to hear your voice and understand your voice.

ā€œAnd the capabilities that come out of that I believe go far beyond games and that the killer app for it ā€” and all these things need something that catches peopleā€™s attention ā€” surprisingly, we may find out that itā€™s not specifically a game. Itā€™s not whacking balls against the wall. It will be the interface and what it allows you to do to all the other things hooked up to your tv.

ā€œIā€™m a firm believer now, after playing around with Natal, that Natal and things like it are going to revolutionize our den.

ā€œOnce you have that interface and the ability to hook this up to your den, Natal will give you reasons to love it that arenā€™t games. Not calling games as bad, games will be good too, but the killer app may not be a game.ā€
I'm actually of the belief that Natal isn't really for games and will eventually find it's place outside of gaming.

As to how Natal connected to an Xbox360 is gonna have any effect on anything hooked up in my "den"...... I'm not so sure where he is going with that. I'm not buying all new stuff to be Natal compatible and none of my stuff was ever designed with any sort of X360 compatibility in mind.

[SixthAngel]

"Monkey Godsā€™ Chief Monkey Jason Rubin believes.."

Why can't I stop laughing?

[Stogi]

I fucking knew it!

I knew that the main attraction will be the interface. I'm almost positive I called it.

[mac<censored>]

'cause if there's one thing most consumers want, it's the ability to change the teevee channel via interpretive dance...