Author Topic: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD (Read 13353 times)

GoldenPhoenix · « **on:** April 16, 2009, 03:20:09 AM »

Here is what VGchartz has for predictions for the top 20 games for March. The VGC numbers are black while the NPD numbers will be blue.

March 09:

1. Pokemon Platinum 854,274 854,274

2. Wii Sports 818,552 (Not sure if this is included in NPD but oh well)

3. Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574 938,000

4. Halo Wars 656,865 639,000

5. Wii Fit 592,024 541,000

6. RE5 PS3 492,649 585,000

7. Wii Play 357,024 285,00

8. Killzone 2 308,396 296,000

9. Mario Kart Wii 307,040 278,000

10. MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221 205,000

11. MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050 305,000

12 CoD: WaW Xbox 360 157,588

13. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown wars 155,516 89,000

14. New Super Mario Bros. 150,088

15. Mario Kart DS 134,318

16. SFIV Xbox 360 128,426

17. Guitar Hero World Tour Wii 124,653

18. Mario Tennis 124,444

19. Tom Clancy's HAWK Xbox 360 120,006

20. Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village (I love seeing this one hang in there!) 118,609

Hardware:

Wii 818,552 601,000

DS 604,520 563,000

Xbox 360 369,287 330,000

PS3 309,209 218,000

PSP 229,876 168,000

PS2 101,078 112,000

We'll see how these compare to the official NPD numbers. It will probably take a bit to get the top 20 down. Any help getting there would be appreciated!

April 09
1
   Pokemon Platinum
      Nintendo   847,270 433k
2
   Wii Sports
      Nintendo   568,334
3
   Wii Fit
      Nintendo   512,859 471K
4
   Guitar Hero: Metallica
      Activision   326,404
5
   Mario Kart Wii
      Nintendo   274,268 210K
6
   Wii Play
      Nintendo   250,610 170k
7
   Guitar Hero: Metallica
      Activision   248,456
8
   The Godfather II
      Electronic Arts   226,827 155k
9
   Resident Evil 5
      Capcom   214,392 122k
10
   Mario Kart DS
      Nintendo   201,544 112k
11
   New Super Mario Bros
      Nintendo   192,406 119
12
   Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village
      Nintendo   167,663
13
   Call of Duty: World at War
      Activision   165,816
14
   Rhythm Heaven
      Nintendo   165,426
15
   Halo 3
      Microsoft   147,134
16
   Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars
      Take-Two Interactive   144,025 74k
17
   Resident Evil 5
      Capcom   142,617
18
   Guitar Hero: Metallica
      Activision   131,864
19
   Super Mario 64 DS
      Nintendo   126,182
20
   Nintendogs
      Nintendo   123,105

Hardware:

DSi/DSL: 1,343,454 1.04 mil
Wii: 568,334 340k
360: 339,354 175K
PS3: 217,568 127k
PS2: 180,441 172k
PSP: 174,060 116k

Some notes:

This has been an interesting experiment, and it appears that VGchartz is WAY off when it comes to predicting hardware sales, while game sales they seem to nail within 15% of VGchartz which I think is pretty impressive considering they do not have the funding nor the resources of a NPD and are a free to everyone. Yeah there are two games where they called way off with those being The Show on PS3 and Wii PLay but overally their numbers were around 15%. After taking the average based on BNM numbers they are within 11.25% of NPD if you eliminate the outlier numbers on each side of the percentage results (the Show and Halo Wars) and 13.5% if you add in the outliers. That is pretty dang impressive IMO. (Feel free to check my averaging skills, I don't pretend to be an expert!).

We also have to note that VGchartz is not estimating NPD numbers but actual, and considering NPD gives a + or - 5% or so that means the VGchartz numbers can be either closer or farther away.

We'll see what changes as I continue down the top 20 list. So far it looks like if you choose to use VGchartz as a reference you should figure in the percentage difference between NPD numbers. So if you are willing to allow wiggle room in estimating a games total units of around 15% you should be fine. Also it seems safe to say that their lifetime figures should be accurate since they do adjust numbers each month to match NPD, just remember to figure in the non-NPD month with what appears to be the %15 accuracy for North American sales.

Additional notes on VGchartz Accuracy from IGN:

According to Matt on the 5/6 edition of NVC, developers refer people to VC chartz for Wiiware/DSi Ware sales because they are fairly accurate. Which is good to know since there is no other way to get these numbers indicating, if true (and I am not on the silly hate IGN bandwagon) indicates VGchartz does have sources inside the development community.

VGchartz analysis of the margin of error

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=3621

My problem with this is that their numbers do not match what I pulled from their site. I'll have to see next month about this NPD Preview. They may modify their numbers at the end of the month and put it in a feature.

Ewww

This month (april) isn't looking good in regards to accuracy they were way off in regards to Pokemon and other titles.

Mop it up · « **Reply #1 on:** April 16, 2009, 04:36:19 AM »

I wonder if the number for Mario Power Tennis is correct, I didn't think it would sell very well.

Peachylala · « **Reply #2 on:** April 16, 2009, 11:04:12 AM »

Never underestimate the selling power of Mario sports titles, Mop. It could sell better then expected.

...Why is there so many over-rated crap on this chart though? Oh wait, NA gamers, lol. ~~Like other regions aren't worse.~~

GO GO NSMB!

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #3 on:** April 16, 2009, 12:38:37 PM »

Quote from: GoldenPhoenix on April 16, 2009, 03:20:09 AM

Here is what VGchartz has for predictions for the top 20 games for March

1. Pokemon Platinum 854,274

2. Wii Sports 818,552 (Not sure if this is included in NPD but oh well)

3. Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574

4. Halo Wars 656,865

5. Wii Fit 592,024

6. RE5 PS3 492,649

7. Wii Play 357,024

8. Killzone 2 308,396

9. Mario Kart Wii 307,040

10. MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221

11. MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050

12 CoD: WaW Xbox 360 157,588

13. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown wars 155,516

14. New Super Mario Bros. 150,088

15. Mario Kart DS 134,318

16. SFIV Xbox 360 128,426

17. Guitar Hero World Tour Wii 124,653

18. Mario Tennis 124,444

19. Tom Clancy's HAWK Xbox 360 120,006

20. Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village (I love seeing this one hang in there!) 118,609

Hardware:

Wii 818,552

DS 604,520

Xbox 360 369,287

PS3 309,209

PSP 229,876

PS2 101,078

We'll see how these compare to the official NPD numbers. It will probably take a bit to get the top 20 down. Any help getting there would be appreciated!

a quote is edit proof

still wish you posted this back when they first posted it. Just so we know if they were accurately tracking anything real-time or if numbers were still fluxuating afterwards

ShyGuy · « **Reply #4 on:** April 16, 2009, 06:51:36 PM »

NPD via GAF

PlayStation 2 112K
PlayStation 3 218K
PSP 168K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 601K
Nintendo DS 563K

RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K
HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K
WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K
MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K
KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K
WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K
MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K

How we do?

TJ Spyke · « **Reply #5 on:** April 16, 2009, 06:57:19 PM »

Look at that, VG Chartz off by large amounts. Just on the Wii alone they were off by more than 200K. Watch VG Chartz come up with some BS excuse again (when they were off by more than 600K in December they tried blaming NPD, even though Nintendo themselves confirmed the NPD numbers).

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #6 on:** April 16, 2009, 06:58:40 PM »

Lets do this in NPD ranking order & see how close(or far off) VGC really is.
We will have to do this for several months before we can see how consistent they are though

NPD: RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K
VGC: Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574
------------------------
Very Wrong ~ >130k or ~ 15%

NPD: POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K
VGC: Pokemon Platinum 854,274
-----------------------
Close ~ <50k or ~ 6%

NPD: HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K
VGC: Halo Wars 656,865
----------------------
Very Close ~ <20k or ~ 3%

NPD: RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K
VGC: RE5 PS3 492,649
---------------------
Wrong ~ >90k or ~ 16%

NPD: WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K
VGC: Wii Fit 592,024
--------------------
Not So Close ~ >50k or ~ 9%

NPD: MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K
VGC: MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050
--------------------
Very Wrong ~ >100k or ~ 38%

NPD: KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K
VGC: Killzone 2 308,396
--------------------
Very Close ~ <15k or ~ 4%

NPD: WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K
VGC: Wii Play 357,024
--------------------
Wrong ~ >75k or ~ 21%

NPD: MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K
VGC: Mario Kart Wii 307,040
--------------------
Close ~ <30k or ~ 10%

NPD: MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K
VGC: MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221
-------------------
Close ~ =30k or ~ 13%

Code: [Select]

Sys | NPD  | VGC     | > = < | %
----------------------------------
WII | 601K | 818,552 | >215k | 27%
NDS | 563K | 604,520 | >40k  | 7%
360 | 330K | 369,287 | >35k  | 11%
PS3 | 218K | 309,209 | >90k  | 30%
PSP | 168K | 229,876 | >60k  | 27%
PS2 | 112K | 101,078 | <15k  | 10%

=<10% error - 7
>10% error - 9

Thats is alot that is way off .
there are a few that are kinda close
The %'s are the difference inbetween the two numbers (things look much worse when you look at the %'s)
but we will have to compare it to next month and the month after that to be sure

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #7 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:01:37 PM »

lol madworld

GoldenPhoenix · « **Reply #8 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:18:37 PM »

Thanks for the comparisons BNM. It is interesting that they had the biggest differential with RE5. VGchartz has stated their margin of error is +-10%. Looks like most of these are falling under that. BTW not sure if you guy's knew but they currently state which numbers they modify when NPD comes out. At least when this month is over I can through and see what their average differential is from VGC, so if it is ever brought up to state sales numbers you'll know it will most likely be around "X" percent off.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #9 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:24:12 PM »

Show me percent-errors, not differences.

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #10 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:30:02 PM »

Quote from: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 07:24:12 PM

Show me percent-errors, not differences.

I'm not a calculator or a sales bot.
but I guess I can pull out a calculator... wish I had a robot too.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #11 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:38:16 PM »

Bust-out some quadratic regressions and z-distributions.

GoldenPhoenix · « **Reply #12 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:40:16 PM »

Quote from: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 07:38:16 PM

Bust-out some quadratic regressions and z-distributions.

Ewww, I remember those in statistics. Luckily that nightmare is far behind me.

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #13 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:51:08 PM »

I added some %'s but only the difference inbetween the 2 #'s.
check my math, I'm not used to a regular calculator (been using a mortgage calculator for 2yrs now)

GoldenPhoenix · « **Reply #14 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:55:05 PM »

Quote from: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 07:51:08 PM

I added some %'s but only the difference inbetween the 2 #'s.
check my math, I'm not used to a regular calculator (been using a mortgage calculator for 2yrs now)

Do you know if NPD puts out a margin of error for their numbers?

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #15 on:** April 16, 2009, 07:59:06 PM »

If my memory serves me right, NPD was about 4% error including estimates

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #16 on:** April 16, 2009, 08:25:49 PM »

Those look right.

Mop it up · « **Reply #17 on:** April 16, 2009, 09:07:55 PM »

Quote from: True Blue on April 16, 2009, 11:04:12 AM

Never underestimate the selling power of Mario sports titles, Mop. It could sell better then expected.

Yeah, but it is a just a port of a GameCube game that's only four years old, so I didn't know what to expect from it. In another few months it'll pass up Mario Strikers Charged.

NWR_pap64 · « **Reply #18 on:** April 16, 2009, 09:50:21 PM »

Quote from: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 07:01:37 PM

lol madworld

If fans went nuts over the VGchartz numbers I can't wait to see the reactions over the official numbers...

ShyGuy · « **Reply #19 on:** April 16, 2009, 10:24:04 PM »

So half of the ten had a discrepancy outside the margin of error? Next step is to just guess the numbers next month and see if that is any more or less accurate.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #20 on:** April 16, 2009, 10:27:35 PM »

Then when you have enough months tracked for an adequate sample size, develop a trendline to gage the comparison performance.

Ymeegod · « **Reply #21 on:** April 18, 2009, 12:53:55 PM »

Some stores like Walmart don't disclose sales so NPD estimates them, not sure what VGC does (I'm guessing they do the same).

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #22 on:** April 18, 2009, 01:22:58 PM »

Nobody discloses anything to VGC. They guesstimate everything. Sometimes its an educated guesstimate, other times they pull numbers out of their ass. ITT we are trying to decide how often the latter is.

so far its looking like most of the time.

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #23 on:** May 01, 2009, 01:20:05 AM »

bump...

any new sales #'s from vgchartzzzzz? it is end of the month

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #24 on:** May 05, 2009, 12:23:09 PM »

GP are you you there? or have they not posted anything yet over there yet?

News:

Author Topic: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD (Read 13353 times)