Topic: RE:Future Console Predictions

[NewsBot]

Get out your crystal balls and play along: Consoles expected to rake in $35 billion by 2008.

Next Generation Video-Game Consoles to Outsell All Previous Platforms, Reaching $35bn by 2008 Says Juniper Research

BASINGSTOKE, ENGLAND - Additional features and functionality are set to transform the next generation of video-game consoles into intelligent home media centres. The leading developers across the sector have revealed to Juniper Research their ambitious plans to integrate high-speed Internet gaming, wireless connectivity between machines and handhelds, as well as other new entertainment functions.

Due for launch from early 2005, the big three manufacturers (Sony, Microsoft & Nintendo) are racing to develop and launch the next winning platform. New competitors are also hoping to take a slice of the new wider market.

Keri Allan, Games Specialist at Juniper Research found that "The next generation of machines will take a leap into the world of convergence and offer gamers a home media centre rather than just a gaming machine. Graphics and speed will evolve, but connectivity between devices will also come to the forefront. This functionality will help consoles to finally become a mainstream entertainment medium, and put the stereotypical image of the 'computer gaming geek' to rest."

The new study also reveals:

- Online gaming from video-game consoles will reach almost 28m regular users by 2008, as always-on broadband access achieves significant penetration across the developed world. The downloading of new games and levels will also become mainstream.

- Next generation handheld hardware revenues are forecast to reach $25bn by 2008. Competition and price pressure will increase in this sector, as Nintendo (the leader) faces new launches from Sony, and other new machines such as the Gamepark and Zodiac.

One short term issue that the games sector is already beginning to face is a reduction in demand for the current generation of games platforms. This will become an increasing problem for the sector as the release of the new platforms approach. "Price drops, bundling and add-ons will continue to be in favour, but savvy users will increasingly be holding-off making a purchase until the new hardware is ready in 2005," Keri noted.

[mouse_clicker]

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Due for launch from early 2005

Who the hell is launching in early 2005? I think that alone should discredit the "research". The rest of the article was either completely obvious or pure speculation. I can tell you right now that downloading videogames will never be mainstream- we as humans like to have a hard copy we can hold on to, to say is ours. Downloading videogames would be like legal piracy, which isn't all that satisfying in the first place.

[MarioAllStar]

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This functionality will help consoles to finally become a mainstream entertainment medium, and put the stereotypical image of the 'computer gaming geek' to rest.

No matter how popular gaming may become, I will always be a gaming geek.

They said that game systems will become homw entertainment systems. They are wrong. At least when it comes to Nintendo. I hope that Nintendo never even considers putting DVD compadibility into a system. Let alone a home theater...

[Ian Sane]

Whoever did this research obviously doens't know DICK.  Like MC mentioned "early 2005" has never even been rumoured as a launch date.  2005 in general has been rumoured (though 2006 is now widely considered the certain year) but never EARLY 2005.  That's like what?  A year from now?  Not going to happen.

And also like MC said downloading will never become mainstream because most people want a hard copy.  I can't stand the idea of having something mess up during the download thus leaving me with a credit card bill and no game or that if a hard drive or memory card or whatever messes up and I lose entire games.  With physical copies I am for the most part responsible if the game is stolen or damaged.  That's not the case if it's all downloadable software.  I think downloading games will be a feature in the future (though technically it does exists just not legally) but it will never be the sole or even accepted way of purchasing titles.  I also think it's premature to assume this feature will be featured in this coming console generation.  The next gen will be about making games playable online.  Making them downloadable will be the next step.  If there's never a market for online console games then downloadable games isn't needed.

I also disagree with the home entertainment centre deal and not just because Nintendo won't go that route.  Odds are MS isn't even going to go that route this time, or at least it won't be the main focus.  Rumour has it that to ensure profits on their next console the "Xbox Next" won't even have a hard drive and the hardware will focus on overall performance and cost instead of raw power.  Basically MS is going to be copying Nintendo next time instead of Sony.  It makes sense since Nintendo has made a profit despite lower than expected sales.  Anyway this suggests to me that MS is going for a more games focused approach and any entertainment centre functionality will either be as add-ons only or won't exist period.

Really the only console maker of the three that is often rumoured to make their console an entertainment system or have downloadable games (one rumour suggests nothing but) is Sony.  I guess the logic with this study is that since the market leader is doing it then the industry will be going in that direction.  Personally I think that if Sony focuses too much about making the Playstation an entertainment device they're going to lose developers and thus users.  Just because they're the market leader doesn't mean their vision is the future.  Nintendo was the market leader in 1996 and their vision then certainly wasn't the future.

Oh and the f*cking Zodiac is mentioned alongside the PSP as competition for the Gameboy.  That alone totally kills the validity of the research.  At least they didn't mention the N-Gage.

[Djunknown]

Its times like these I wonder how in the blue hell 'Anlyasts' get their jobs. For cripe's sake, half, if not, all the forum members here at PGC have more insight on Nintendo than these 'Analysts.' I wish someone paid me for just asking my analysis. Hell, the PGC staff could make some extra cash on the side talking to these firms, since they've got the pulse of Nintendo too, a lot more than these 'Analysts.'

As far as home entertainment center's (behold American spelling!), I dunno. Microsoft has that media center PC concept it wants to push; the 'Box seems to have a bit of a role in it as well. Sony's PSX, despite some dissapointments (I believe it didn't ship with all the promised features) did well beyond 'Analysts' expectations in Japan. Because of the demanding prices, this will probably just reach a niche crowd. But the fact that they are entertaining these concepts says something, no? Maybe Nintendo will have a souped-up equivelent of the Q when the N5 rolls around? Nah, just crazy talk. Forget I mentioned it.

[nemo_83]

I have a theory that the market is going to become spread too thinly allowing each console only a handful of third party exclusives.  In order for the market to survive the general smuck should be able to buy a single console and easily find any game they want to play.  Unfortunately this gen has shown how a market that must own multiple systems to own multiple games is only good for the manurfacturer and only in the short term.  The "industry experts" predict that the industry will grow and to that I laugh.  The market is shrinking and lost around 2 billion in 03 I believe.  Online will never take off beyond a few million unless someone offers a no strings plug in and play system.  In other topics I said there will be another crash and all of these rehash machines will go the way of Atari, Sega, and the dinosaurs leaving only the ones that could either survive the shrinking "mainstreme" market through sheer stuborness or money muscle and the increasing demand for real substance from those gamers that will continue playing.  MS, Sony, and Nintendo seem to be using similar hardware allowing for easy ports between systems to counter this backlash against their lack of delivery this generation.  It is not just the fact that most games across all systems this gen have lacked ambition, but really the big problem is that those few games that are awesome are spread between 4 systems.

[SPhil64]

Oh please.  I hate analysts.  A year or two ago they predicted that video game sales would damn near cease and video gaming would be a passing fad.  Let's see, they predicted that for, this year or next year I think.  Now they change their mind and say it's going to thrive?  Please.  The only people dumber than analysts are weathermen.  They're the only two jobs where you're paid to lie.  Aside from politicians of course, but that's a different story.

[Oldskool]

I predict built-in waffle irons and lawyers...

[KDR_11k]

Unlike analysts the weathermen at least have giant computers doing the calculations for them.

[KnowsNothing]

What the hell are you guys talking about?  Dude, the weathermen (looks like watermelon =O) control the weather.  They can't be wrong.

to waffle irons.......but lawyers?  Come on, that's a little far-fetched.  But I had this great idea.  For gaming on the go Nintendo can do away with batteries and either have really long extension cords or (more likely) have the feature of being able to plug into either a tree, a gazelle, or the sky. *nods head*

[odifiend]

a gazelle? stop being sarcastic.  But the sky... ya got something there, buD!

[Plugabugz]

It needs to be plugged into the outside of a moving train, plenty of kinetic energy there...  

[nemo_83]

my next gen machine should be able to produce bile excrements on comand.