Topic: Microsoft showing their true colors once again.

[BigJim]

The speculation goes a bit too far.  The HD tuners isn't likely (see Tivo's HD problems, re: CableCards, switched digital video incompatibility, and no satellite support).

But an HD-DVD drive, sure why not. That's been speculation for a long time anyway.

[Chozo Ghost]

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Originally posted by: BigJim
The speculation goes a bit too far.  The HD tuners isn't likely (see Tivo's HD problems, re: CableCards, switched digital video incompatibility, and no satellite support).

But an HD-DVD drive, sure why not. That's been speculation for a long time anyway.

If MS is serious about HD-DVD winning this format war then it needs to be standard for 360's at some point, so that the PS3 no longer provides that edge to Blu-ray.

[Arbok]

I really don't think Microsoft cares a great deal about who wins the next format war, to be honest.

[BlackNMild2k1]

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Originally posted by: Arbok
I really don't think Microsoft cares a great deal about who wins the next format war, to be honest.

I think you're right. Didn't they get their H.264 codec supported by both formats already?

That would be why its rumored that Toshiba is releasing an Xbox 360Q, right?
Its not MS pushing the format, it would be Toshiba.
Just like it was upto Panasonic to promote purchase of the Q.

[Chozo Ghost]

I think if nothing else Microsoft wants to stop Blu-ray because it is owned by Sony, whom they see as an enemy in the battle over the living room. I think it does matter to them, because why else did they release an HD-DVD addon for the 360, and why has Bill Gates himself spoke out in favor of HD-DVD?

[BigJim]

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Originally posted by: Chozo Ghost

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Originally posted by: BigJim
The speculation goes a bit too far.  The HD tuners isn't likely (see Tivo's HD problems, re: CableCards, switched digital video incompatibility, and no satellite support).

But an HD-DVD drive, sure why not. That's been speculation for a long time anyway.

If MS is serious about HD-DVD winning this format war then it needs to be standard for 360's at some point, so that the PS3 no longer provides that edge to Blu-ray.

Yep, I agree. They'll have a lot of lost time to make up for, though. By the time the HD-DVD drive went in (assuming a year from now like the article says), I doubt they'll be able to make up the difference that the PS3 has already made for BRD, unless Toshiba has some other big plans up their sleeves beyond $99 stand-alone players.

It's also speculation that MS is the one practically keeping HD-DVD alive. Not just because of BRD, but because "confusion" in the HD media space eventually helps their digital download service(s) down the line. That's a tiny bit too "conspiracy theory" for me, but who knows...

[Ceric]

That is a good point.  As of now I think only Microsoft is offer shows for download on there console.  I'm actually surprised the Sony doesn't have them on PSN but on the flipside we haven't gotten any new "classic" PS1 games in a while.  Also whenever I go to buy movies the Blu-Ray tends to be a little cheaper or more likely on sale then HD-DVD, of course DVD is still the cheapest but thats a given.  I mean just this weekend I picked up "The Fifth Element" and "Hellboy" for $30 + tax total for Blu-ray.  Shame though that I had to pick up Transformers on DVD but I got this cool case that transforms from Optimus's truck form to his robot form.

[Chozo Ghost]

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Originally posted by: BigJim
Yep, I agree. They'll have a lot of lost time to make up for, though. By the time the HD-DVD drive went in (assuming a year from now like the article says), I doubt they'll be able to make up the difference that the PS3 has already made for BRD, unless Toshiba has some other big plans up their sleeves beyond $99 stand-alone players.

On a positive note for HD-DVD, there was a studio that was releasing movies on both HD and BR but they recently switched completely over HD. Plus there are and have always been several film studios that are exclusively in the HD camp. Too bad that Disney and Blockbuster are backing BRD, though, because they are big players in this. But I wouldn't say HD-DVD is out just yet.

Most likely, I think what is going to happen is both formats are going to end up "winning" and dual format players will end up being the norm. This isn't like the VHS/Betamax war because the media are the same size and, I'm not sure, but I suspect getting a diode and all that  to work with both formats isn't that big of a deal.

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Originally posted by: BigJim
It's also speculation that MS is the one practically keeping HD-DVD alive. Not just because of BRD, but because "confusion" in the HD media space eventually helps their digital download service(s) down the line. That's a tiny bit too "conspiracy theory" for me, but who knows...

I wouldn't put that past Microsoft to do something like that. After all, they did their best to keep SCO alive so it could litigate Linux and those who backed it. It didn't work, but Microsoft accomplished their goal of casting F.U.D. over Linux for a period of years in order to slow its adoption. I read that was actually why they released the internet explorer web browser initially. They were afraid Netscape was going to threaten their Windows monopoly by becoming a platform for applications, so they bought some browser company for that purpose. Then of course, bundled it in with Windows 98 and drove Netscape out of business basically, and gave IE 90+% market share.

And didn't they just buy WebTV out of existence so they could kill it off and not have to compete with it? WebTV had a lot of potential to become what the Xbox is now trying to be. Awful nice to have billions of dollars to just buy your competition out of existence. Isn't this the reason they entered into the video game industry?

(For a minute I thought I was getting off-topic, but then I checked the thread title. lol)  

[Kairon]

/afraid

[BlackNMild2k1]

Its a good thing the Videogame industry has too many big players for MS' money to really be influential with all of its monies.
Even though Bill Gates and shareholders alike, upto this point, have written the Xbox division a blank check to get it done, it still hasn't gotten the results that they were hoping for.

[BigJim]

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On a positive note for HD-DVD, there was a studio that was releasing movies on both HD and BR but they recently switched completely over HD. Plus there are and have always been several film studios that are exclusively in the HD camp. Too bad that Disney and Blockbuster are backing BRD, though, because they are big players in this. But I wouldn't say HD-DVD is out just yet.

Most likely, I think what is going to happen is both formats are going to end up "winning" and dual format players will end up being the norm. This isn't like the VHS/Betamax war because the media are the same size and, I'm not sure, but I suspect getting a diode and all that to work with both formats isn't that big of a deal.

True. It's definitely early, and the best estimates are that the combined HD media sales account for only around 5%. It's still so early that we can say "both" or "neither" are winning. Heh. HD-DVD isn't out yet, though it's slanting in BRD's favor in a tiny "66% of 5%" kind of way, which in the grand scheme of things means little. I read about a $400 universal player coming out soon, which seems like a good choice.

This is going to drag out a while. It's funny to see how loud the debate is on the internet, considering their virtual irrelevance on the whole.

[denjet78]

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Originally posted by: BigJim
It's definitely early, and the best estimates are that the combined HD media sales account for only around 5%. It's still so early that we can say "both" or "neither" are winning. Heh. HD-DVD isn't out yet, though it's slanting in BRD's favor in a tiny "66% of 5%" kind of way, which in the grand scheme of things means little. I read about a $400 universal player coming out soon, which seems like a good choice.

This is going to drag out a while. It's funny to see how loud the debate is on the internet, considering their virtual irrelevance on the whole.

I think it'so going to be pretty easy to pick which one is going to win out eventually, if the market ever decides to support either of them fully. The one that reaches a mass market friendly price point for a PC burner will win plain and simple. That doesn't bode well for Blu-Ray considering Sony's iron fisted determination to completely own and control the format. Even if dual players become the norm rather than the exception, the format that's easiest to pirate will win. I've already heard about HDDVD PC burners. I haven't heard word one in regards to Blu-Ray.

[that Baby guy]

HD DVD will win.

It took the lead initially, then w/ the PS3, BD caught up, but now HD DVD is back.  A sub-$300 unit is supposed to be released sometime before the end of the year, I think, which was the price point necessary for the DVD's success.

[Maverick]

I believe BD is still ahead on actual movie sales.  

Doesn't matter, 'cause so few people are buying them in the first place.  Splitting the market like this is exactly what Microsoft wants so everybody skips out on HD discs and downloads them instead.  

[that Baby guy]

Nah, Microsoft doesn't want DD.  They want to force another generation before that.  The developers, musicians, and studios would want DD, so they can cut out the middle man, the publishers, people like Microsoft, in several cases.

Right now, there's too many formats for DD to really work, anyways, and nearly all have painstakingly annoying DRM, too.  I think it would be better to wait about eight years before we really get to it, that way, when it happens, it'll happen right.

[BigJim]

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That doesn't bode well for Blu-Ray considering Sony's iron fisted determination to completely own and control the format.

I'm not sure where you see that. Toshiba is still practically the only producer of HD-DVD players, except for some re-branded RCA boxes and the "combo" units. So it's pretty hard to judge their control, or lack thereof, of the format. I don't know of any explicit "iron fisting" from Sony, but we do know BRD has a number of consumer electronic manufacturers, and thus the majority of the CE industry's support.

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the format that's easiest to pirate will win. I've already heard about HDDVD PC burners. I haven't heard word one in regards to Blu-Ray.

Personally I've seen more BRD burners (again Toshiba seems to be the only HD-DVD manufacturer that I can find). But PS3 is (so far) demonstrating that price and piracy won't quite dictate the victor that easily. But no burner is "cheap" yet, so I guess we'll see.

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It took the lead initially, then w/ the PS3, BD caught up, but now HD DVD is back. A sub-$300 unit is supposed to be released sometime before the end of the year, I think, which was the price point necessary for the DVD's success.

The PS3 more than helped them catch up; this calendar year has been in favor of BRD by 2:1. The since-inception numbers are close to that as well. There are already $250 HD-DVD players out on in the wild. A cheaper HD-DVD player will help, but it won't be a magic bullet.      

[Arbok]

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Originally posted by: BigJim
The PS3 more than helped them catch up; this calendar year has been in favor of BRD by 2:1. The since-inception numbers are close to that as well. There are already $250 HD-DVD players out on in the wild. A cheaper HD-DVD player will help, but it won't be a magic bullet.

True, but look at the data that Sony themselves compiled:



The drop off from the rate at the start of the year is noticeable, and while Blu-Ray has some very nice surges... it's actually in faster decline. The fact that overall HD "format" sales are dropping, though, indicates to me, even at this early stage, that neither will truly ever beat DVD as the de facto standard, or ever break out from just being niche.

It would have been interesting to see what it would have been like if there wasn't a Blu-Ray and HD-DVD battle, and had one format just gone up against DVD. Probably would have fared much, much better at possibly replacing the format... as I feel that after all the confusion and dust settles, and one format stands atop the other, most consumers aren't going to care much anymore as it's no longer "the new thing".

[BigJim]

Yeah I agree, I don't know if either HD format will ever beat DVD. I don't think it's really in the cards, with too many inconvenient barriers in the way, as well as VOD and DD coming in from the rear down the road.  Both formats may end up being transitional technologies.  Who knows.

[Chozo Ghost]

I think someone said it before, but the HD media battle won't mean anything when holographic and protein based discs come out. If you think 25gb storage capacity is impressive, just wait until there are discs that can hold 100s of GB!

If HD and BRD stay locked in this struggle and neither one becomes a de facto standard within the next few years, then I don't think either of them ever will because by then there will be something far better coming out.

And as BigJim said, VOD and DD may mean an end to optical media delivery. *shrug* I dunno, but I'd be very reluctant to buy into either format right now, otherwise we may end up like those poor saps who purchased Laserdisc players back in the day.

[BigJim]

I doubt there will be a complete end to optical media, but VOD and DD will definitely stunt the growth potential from now on.

DD will be the successor to BRD or HD-DVD, IMO.

[BigJim]

BTW, if anybody is brave enough, Circuit City is selling the HD-A2 HD-DVD player for $198 online. Get a filler item (like batteries for your Wiimote) and then you can use a "10% off $199 or more" discount code on SlickDeals to bring the price down further.

Plus the 5 free movies thing.

Wal-Mart will be following suit on the $200 price on the 3rd.  

[Chozo Ghost]

Isn't HD-DVD also backed by the DVD consortium people? It probably doesn't mean much, but I think those are the same people behind the DVD format. Their backing probably counts for something. Though, I find it odd that no one but Toshiba is making these players...

[BigJim]

Yep, ultimately the consortium support won't mean much, but it's a bone of contention among the camps.

Among the drama was that HD-DVD was rejected by the Forum a couple of times. New seats were added to the group, voting rules were changed, and wham-bam, HD-DVD is pushed through as the new standard, ticking some people off in the process. It's all pretty odd.

I think that the biggest reason HD-DVD has gotten soft manufacturing support is Toshiba's business model. Their goal was to undercut BRD hardware and push marketshare through aggressive pricing. That's attractive to consumers but not to the other companies. They followed the money, and hedged their bets on PS3 having an impact. That's my take on it, anyway.  

[Athrun Zala]

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Originally posted by: Arbok
The drop off from the rate at the start of the year is noticeable, and while Blu-Ray has some very nice surges... it's actually in faster decline. The fact that overall HD "format" sales are dropping, though, indicates to me, even at this early stage, that neither will truly ever beat DVD as the de facto standard, or ever break out from just being niche.

agreed, I'm pretty much convinced that HD-DVD/BR are the DVD-A/SACD of video...

[Chozo Ghost]

From what I've heard, HD quality video is actually possible on the DVD format itself with modern compression methods. That said, you'd still need new hardware to play the new format, but the medium could still be regular DVDs.

The reason this option wasn't pursued has to be pure greed. The studios wanted someone that couldn't be pirated, but they failed because from what I understand someone already broke the encryptions to both formats.