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Originally posted by: VGrevolution Let's forget the DS Lite, what new game console has had 3+ million manufactured and sold within a month EVER? The point is that the Wii's launch was HUGE by any standard when you take into account worldwide and no company has came close to the numbers Nintendo has managed with a new console.
First of all, why should the DSL be forgotten? It's a clear indicator of Nintendo's inability to meet extended demand despite having the HISTORY OF THE CONSOLE already at their disposal.
Second, it's not the initial launch of the Wii which matters right now: it's the fact that Nintendo is still hopelessly unable to replenish the supply which I find so objectionable.
If Nintendo has a market research department, they either need to be fired or forced to wear huge wigs, red noses and makeup so they look like the clowns that they are.
The point of MR is to establish the product volume your company needs to produce in order to meet the predicted demand. How do you do this? Easy: test marketing, consumer research studies, product trials, etc.
If you took a chimpanzee, taught it basic english skills and instructed it to determine the potential sales numbers for the Nintendo Wii, even the f*cking CHIMP would have the common sense to set up some Wiis and invite random people in to try them out (most likely Wii Sports) and then ask the test subjects afterwards if they'd buy it, if they'd recommend it to their friends, etc.
I know all of the aforementioned because I'VE SEEN IT IN ACTION IN MY OWN LIVING ROOM (minus the talking chimp, sadly)!!! There hasn't been a single person who has tried the Wii and not wanted one for him/herself, regardless of age or gender. It's a safe assumption to say that EVERY person on these forums who owns a Wii has likely shown it to someone else and seen the reactions for her/himself.
If
I had been charged with the task of determining Wii's potential sales, armed with 4 Wiimotes, an early beta of Wii Sports and a budget to hire people to aid me in the testing, I would use the chimp method and get potential customer testimonials, after which I would no DOUBT come away with the conclusion that
Nintendo needs to get more factories running, full goddamn speed AHEAD.
But it's even WORSE than that, you see, because the DSL shortage doubly
confirms the incompetence of Nintendo's market research department (if they even have one at all).
In the case of the DSL, they're predicting the demand of a product which has been on the market for the year and has already had its demand set in STONE. The DSL is one of the hottest items on the market and is the fastest selling handheld in history. In order for a DSL shortage to happen, SOMEONE at Nintendo's MR must have had to either say or think, "Nah, we better play it safe and not manufacture too many of these, just in case."
Despite ALL evidence to the contrary, despite the frenzy of sales in Japan and the US, despite the many 1+ million seller titles on the console,
Nintendo lowballed the DSL numbers... and for CHRISTMAS, FFS!!!This equates taking a written exam, except that when you GET the exam, all of the correct answers are filled in for you, but rather than pass the test in, you erase all of the correct answers and fill out the wrong ones.
So in short, I think Nintendo
can't manufacture worth a damn and that this is definitely a factor in the current Wii shortage. In order to determine by how much, we'd need manufacturing information which I don't believe is publicly available, including potential bottlenecks from component suppliers, bottlenecks which the DSL should have LONG since ironed out (hence why there's no excuse for a DSL shortage except incompetence).
Could Nintendo have predicted the current demand for the Wii?
Yes. I've seen MANY sources who did just this WITHOUT having access to consumer trials.
I don't know by how much Nintendo is to blame for the current shortage, but the short answer is that they are
FAR more to blame than most people insist.
In the business world, any company which is "caught off guard" by anything is f*cking incompetent. End of story.