Topic: Official Sales Thread

[Chozo Ghost]

Even if the PS3 drops in price, isn't its image forever tarnished as being a purely rich man's system? The 3DO system debuted at like $700 or something, and though by the end it was like $79 (or something) it never sold more than a million over its entire lifetime.

First impressions are difficult to shake... I mean, the N64 also sorta had that problem. I recall that games were initially about $90 when it first came out! It turned me completely off of gaming for a long time as a result. The PS3 will defintiely come down from $600, but how many people will still care when it finally reaches the sweet spot of $299?

Plus the games for it will likely always be $59.99 new, and that's a significant difference compared to $49.99 for Wii games... I just can't see the PS3 EVER recovering from this view people have of it being a console designed exclusively for the likes of Richie Rich.

[Kairon]

Well, the XBox 360 will get there first. Eventually the XBox 360 premium will hit $200, $250 dollars (maybe by Christmas '08?), and then wouldn't it be a very tempting offer? You could pick up excellent $20 - 30 bargain bin games by then, like Gears of War, Dead Rising, CoD 2, 3 AND 4... you could probably get Shadowrun for $5... AND Banjo and Kazooie 3 might've come out by then.

So, the question is, how does a $250 XBox 360 Premium (or a $200 XBox 360 Core with mem card) stack up against a Nintendo Wii at...say... $200. Would the XBox 360 have hit mass market point by then, or would the Wii's continual undercutting make it look just out of reach budgetwise? Would the market have more appreciation for graphics by then, especially at a mere $200-250 investment? Or would both systems co-exist peacefully, a fulfillment of the "and" system philosophy?

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: ShineGet887
Not to sound like a martyr or anything, but given my age, I never really saw the day that Nintendo was dominating, so the idea of them doing so now is still a little hard to believe.

Hey, I'm with you. This is all pretty surreal.

But don't lose heart! Nintendo fans still have PLENTY to doom and gloom about: endless wiiports, endless "party games," not getting Soul Caliber IV or Resident Evil 5, lack of full and unequivocal third party support, difficulty of getting their own personal Wii SDK, desire for free XNA-like development environment, lateness of the WiiWare original downloadable games, awesomeness of downloadable games on PSN and XBLA, no good games on VC(an issue that differs each week), relatively uninspiring third party game sales, limited online for SSBM, no price drop, another year of hardware shortages and slow manufacturing, developer comments about how the Wii is not their bag, developer comments about how the PS3 IS their bag, Capcom continuing to throw most of their weight behind the XBox 360, EA ports, an extra 400 wiipoints they can't spend, Halo 3, MGS 4, Mass Effect, Dragons, Cliffy B.'s brother, lack of hard drive, cost of harddrive, ugliness of hard drive, no HD SD card support, lack of firmware updates, game delays, inability to find pads for DDR Wii, game droughts, wallet droughts, brain droughts, patches for VC games, Stan Beer from ITWire and the death of gaming in general.

Oh, and a lot of us will hate The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass too.

[Ceric]

I think the Chart domination is going to be important as well.  If next year Nintendo systems dominate the software chart like this year just distributed out a little more, read not pretty much all DS, the 360 and PS3 could both out sell the hardware but I doubt it would matter.

[BigJim]

Quote
Originally posted by: Chozo Ghost
Even if the PS3 drops in price, isn't its image forever tarnished as being a purely rich man's system? The 3DO system debuted at like $700 or something, and though by the end it was like $79 (or something) it never sold more than a million over its entire lifetime.

Unlike the 3DO, PS3 is a pretty desireable system with a strong brand, and we know it's going to have a full life. It's just not affordable. There won't be much of a problem shaking any negativity because it's image is otherwise a positive one to their market.


On the topic of developers, the talk about the switch to Wii is interesting, but some foolish people (on GameSpot and elsewhere) seem to be under the impression that it's some kind of permanant win and PS3 is on its last legs 7 months in. They'll eventually get developers support back once price and penetration normalize... Just hopefully not at Wii's expense later.

[Kenology]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
Unlike the 3DO, PS3 is a pretty desireable system with a strong brand, and we know it's going to have a full life. It's just not affordable. There won't be much of a problem shaking any negativity because it's image is otherwise a positive one to their market.


On the topic of developers, the talk about the switch to Wii is interesting, but some foolish people (on GameSpot and elsewhere) seem to be under the impression that it's some kind of permanant win and PS3 is on its last legs 7 months in. They'll eventually get developers support back once price and penetration normalize... Just hopefully not at Wii's expense later.

That's true.  But at least we can be excited about this news:

- Variety Asia reported that the top three Japanese game publishers are redirecting their development resources from Sony and Microsoft platforms to Nintendo's. Bandai Namco will increase Nintendo platform development by 109% to 115 titles; Sega will increase support by 96% to 49 titles this year; and Capcom will increase 5% to 20 titles.

- UNCONFIRMED: In addition, Square Enix expressed that they do not plan to develop any more new titles for PlayStation 3 until the console install base rises to a profit making level.

And what do you guys think of this next piece?

- RUMOR: Sony will release a new "Waggle-Wall" bundle pack for PlayStation 2 in Christmas, for US$99, the Waggle-Wall is a Wii Remote type motion sensing controller, to compete with Wii. Sony has already registered the new controller for patent protection in December 2006.


http://www.the-magicbox.com/gaming.htm
 

[Ceric]

I fix the parser so the new numbers are up with parsing.  I edited the post on the previous page to reflect this.

[Deguello]

Quote
Unlike the 3DO, PS3 is a pretty desireable system with a strong brand, and we know it's going to have a full life. It's just not affordable.

Hey don't act like the 3DO wasn't treated like hot stuff back in the day.  Magazines were going apeshit over it.

[Arbok]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
They'll eventually get developers support back once price and penetration normalize...

Realize what you are saying. How long will it take for a what's a $600 system today to "normalize"?

If the system reaches a "decent" price by 2009, how much impact will it actually have with developers if its still a distant third and much more expensive to develop for than the market leader? Furthermore, games take awhile to produce. If we are looking at a shift at that time, wouldn't it mean that much of this software wouldn't see the light of day until 2010 or 2011... pretty much getting close to the launch of the next generation already.

[BigJim]

Quote
Originally posted by: Deguello

Quote
Unlike the 3DO, PS3 is a pretty desireable system with a strong brand, and we know it's going to have a full life. It's just not affordable.

Hey don't act like the 3DO wasn't treated like hot stuff back in the day.  Magazines were going apeshit over it.

They were the only ones going apeshit over it.

Quote
How long will it take for a what's a $600 system today to "normalize"?

If the system reaches a "decent" price by 2009, how much impact will it actually have with developers if its still a distant third and much more expensive to develop for than the market leader? Furthermore, games take awhile to produce. If we are looking at a shift at that time, wouldn't it mean that much of this software wouldn't see the light of day until 2010 or 2011... pretty much getting close to the launch of the next generation already.

All good questions. If MS is any indication, Sony could start to do significantly better business at $400, and IMO that will happen before the end of 2008, out of necessity. But developers won't wait to start development until then. They'll do their own due dilligence and project console sales as well as communicate with Sony about such things, so I don't think development lag at that point is a huge problem. They'll just sit on (or secretly complete) projects already in the works until the time is right to start back up. I think Sony's bigger problem is right now, between now and then, sitting on an unaffordable platform and the focus turning away from them until they have a reasonably priced system.

[Arbok]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
All good questions. If MS is any indication, Sony could start to do significantly better business at $400, and IMO that will happen before the end of 2008, out of necessity.

$400 for which model? I think the Elite dragging down 360 sales has proven that people can be easily bogged down by options, and will typically feel that the more expensive package is the "real deal".

If you are suggesting that would be for the "premium", I personally don't think Sony could financially afford to take a $200 price cut by next year. Lenders haven't been too optimisitc about the firm in response to the tremendous amount of dept they carry coupled with their outlook. This in turn has made it more expensive for Sony to carry on its large debt, and doesn't lead them in an ideal spot to just slash the price of the PS3 by 33%, regardless of how poor it might do.

Hell, it was projected that Sony would lose money in its game division for the first three or so years of operation with the PS3... which was made under the assumption they would be the market leader, although not with the same type of lead the PS2 enjoyed. That would have been okay if they also managed to trojan in the Blu-Ray format in the process, but that dream of being #1 is pretty much impossible now.

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
But developers won't wait to start development until then. They'll do their own due dilligence and project console sales as well as communicate with Sony about such things, so I don't think development lag at that point is a huge problem.

That sounds way too optimistic for Sony, IMO. Unless you are talking about porting over 360 games, and basically giving the system the same type of overall treatment that many publishers give the PSP.  

[couchmonkey]

Big Brain Academy watch: This game could cement Nintendo's position with non-gamers.  According to VGChartz, the game's second-week sales are almost equal to the first week, which is a hallmark of popular non-gamer products.  Of course, VGChartz's data is not always accurate, but I'm still very interested to see if this trend continues.

Anyway, about PS3's price.  The problem is that the competition is not static.  I'd agree that Sony could sell a lot of PS3s at $400...right now.  But in 16 months, Microsoft's price will definitely be lower than $400, third parties will have shifted even more resources away from Sony, and Nintendo could potentially have 32 million+ consoles in peoples' homes (if they are indeed manufacturing at 1.5 million per month).

The fact is, momentum is a big deal in this industry, and PS3's momentum is incredibly low right now.  If this was anyone but Sony, every sensible person would agree that the PS3 is doomed to third place.  If this year's price cut doesn't boost sales a lot, $400 at the end of 2008 will be too late.

[Ceric]

New Fun With Numbers.

This one has 4 special new charts.

[Bill Aurion]

Fun Stats:

~ The Wii has extended its lead to 1,862,020 over the PS3.
~ 78,532 consoles sold this week. Wii had 83.5% of all console sales, up 4.5% from the previous week.
~ The Wii has sold more than 44k for 30 weeks in a row.
~ The PS3 has sold less than 10k for 7 weeks in a row.  

[denjet78]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
All good questions. If MS is any indication, Sony could start to do significantly better business at $400, and IMO that will happen before the end of 2008, out of necessity. But developers won't wait to start development until then. They'll do their own due dilligence and project console sales as well as communicate with Sony about such things, so I don't think development lag at that point is a huge problem. They'll just sit on (or secretly complete) projects already in the works until the time is right to start back up. I think Sony's bigger problem is right now, between now and then, sitting on an unaffordable platform and the focus turning away from them until they have a reasonably priced system.

Yeah, I remember the exact same thing happening back when the PSX first started overtaking the N64. Developers kept secretly making games for it just waiting for the market share to increase to a profitable level. It's not like they canceled all their big name N64 games and moved them over to the PSX. Games like Final Fantasy VII, Metal Gear Solid and Dragon Warrior VII.

Oh wait...

Yes they did.

[Chozo Ghost]

So is Sony's insistence on Blu-ray for the PS3 going to be their Achilles heel like Nintendo's insistence on Cartridges was for the N64?

I think it will be, but for completely different reasons. For the N64 the cartridge problem was that they couldn't hold a lot, and that certainly isn't the case with Blu-ray, BUT Sony's insistence on Blu-ray is why the PS3 costs what it costs. And isn't the profit margin on PS3 games going to be less than DVD games? I know blank Blu-ray discs cost like $30 each at Staples... you can get like a whole spindle of 50 blank dvds for that price. So if that is the case, then developers will have a smaller profit margin and this too will increase their reluctance in developing for it...  

[Arbok]

Quote
Originally posted by: Chozo Ghost
For the N64 the cartridge problem was that they couldn't hold a lot...

The problem with going with cartridges wasn't the space. That was an issue from a developer standpoint, of course, but the problem with cartridges was simply price. If Wikipedia is to be believed on the matter, the carts cost around $25 to produce compared to the 10 cents it cost to produce a CD on the PS1. This allowed Sony to release PS1 games that were about half the cost of N64 games. Something that, really, above all else won them that generation in the end.

Not surprisngly, this was stated as an issue by third parties even before the system came out too:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5057/is_199606/ai_n18422149

[BlackNMild2k1]

Quote
Originally posted by: Bill Aurion
Fun Stats:

~ The Wii has extended its lead to 1,862,020 over the PS3.
~ 78,532 consoles sold this week. Wii had 83.5% of all console sales, up 4.5% from the previous week.
~ The Wii has sold more than 44k for 30 weeks in a row.
~ The PS3 has sold less than 10k for 7 weeks in a row.

and more Fun Stats:

Wii comparisons: At 30 weeks, Wii is where GCN was at 118.7 weeks (December 18, 2003), where GBA was at 21.5 weeks (August 18, 2001), where DS was at 36.3 weeks (August 8, 2005), where PS2 was at 31.5 weeks, and where PSP was at 56.9 weeks.

PS3 comparisons: At 33 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 3.7 weeks, where PSP was at 12.3 weeks, where GCN was at 16.1 weeks (December 30, 2001), and where Wii was at 5.1 weeks (December 31, 2007).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 12.7 / 87.3, bringing the total to 25.1 / 74.9. Barring something crazy, Wii will triple PS3's LTD next week. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 194.3 weeks (March 15, 2011).

PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet in 18.0 weeks (October 28, 2007) at ~20.77 million units apiece.

this really puts how bad the PS3 is selling into perspective....

[Kenology]

Quote
Originally posted by: BlackNMild2k1

Quote
Originally posted by: Bill Aurion
Fun Stats:

~ The Wii has extended its lead to 1,862,020 over the PS3.
~ 78,532 consoles sold this week. Wii had 83.5% of all console sales, up 4.5% from the previous week.
~ The Wii has sold more than 44k for 30 weeks in a row.
~ The PS3 has sold less than 10k for 7 weeks in a row.

and more Fun Stats:

Wii comparisons: At 30 weeks, Wii is where GCN was at 118.7 weeks (December 18, 2003), where GBA was at 21.5 weeks (August 18, 2001), where DS was at 36.3 weeks (August 8, 2005), where PS2 was at 31.5 weeks, and where PSP was at 56.9 weeks.

PS3 comparisons: At 33 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 3.7 weeks, where PSP was at 12.3 weeks, where GCN was at 16.1 weeks (December 30, 2001), and where Wii was at 5.1 weeks (December 31, 2007).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 12.7 / 87.3, bringing the total to 25.1 / 74.9. Barring something crazy, Wii will triple PS3's LTD next week. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 194.3 weeks (March 15, 2011).

PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet in 18.0 weeks (October 28, 2007) at ~20.77 million units apiece.

this really puts how bad the PS3 is selling into perspective....

Man, you guys are excellent.  I love this thread.

[Ceric]

Quote
Originally posted by: BlackNMild2k1

Quote
Originally posted by: Bill Aurion
Fun Stats:

~ The Wii has extended its lead to 1,862,020 over the PS3.
~ 78,532 consoles sold this week. Wii had 83.5% of all console sales, up 4.5% from the previous week.
~ The Wii has sold more than 44k for 30 weeks in a row.
~ The PS3 has sold less than 10k for 7 weeks in a row.

and more Fun Stats:

Wii comparisons: At 30 weeks, Wii is where GCN was at 118.7 weeks (December 18, 2003), where GBA was at 21.5 weeks (August 18, 2001), where DS was at 36.3 weeks (August 8, 2005), where PS2 was at 31.5 weeks, and where PSP was at 56.9 weeks.

PS3 comparisons: At 33 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 3.7 weeks, where PSP was at 12.3 weeks, where GCN was at 16.1 weeks (December 30, 2001), and where Wii was at 5.1 weeks (December 31, 2007).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 12.7 / 87.3, bringing the total to 25.1 / 74.9. Barring something crazy, Wii will triple PS3's LTD next week. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 194.3 weeks (March 15, 2011).

PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet in 18.0 weeks (October 28, 2007) at ~20.77 million units apiece.

this really puts how bad the PS3 is selling into perspective....

You guys are stealing my gig.  

Anyways did you see the four charts on the bottom?

[denjet78]

Quote
Originally posted by: Arbok

Quote
Originally posted by: Chozo Ghost
For the N64 the cartridge problem was that they couldn't hold a lot...

The problem with going with cartridges wasn't the space. That was an issue from a developer standpoint, of course, but the problem with cartridges was simply price. If Wikipedia is to be believed on the matter, the carts cost around $25 to produce compared to the 10 cents it cost to produce a CD on the PS1. This allowed Sony to release PS1 games that were about half the cost of N64 games. Something that, really, above all else won them that generation in the end.

It's already been said that Sony is charging more for royalty fees this generation. I don't know by how much but it's more than everyone else. Last gen Nintendo and Sony both charged $9 a unit while MS charged $8 hoping that that would bring in more developers. I don't know what MS is charging now but Nintendo is probably still charging $9, if not even less. But Sony has increased their rate. Most likely because of the extra cost of making games on BluRay. And to top it all off, you're forced to use BluRay. Sony won't let developers use DVD or even CD no matter what size the game is. That's a colossally waste if the game isn't built from the ground up for the PS3.

[BigJim]

Quote
That sounds way too optimistic for Sony, IMO.

Ironically, I don't think Sony is given enough credit anymore. The truth may end up in the middle somerwhere.

Quote
Originally posted by: denjet78
Yeah, I remember the exact same thing happening back when the PSX first started overtaking the N64. Developers kept secretly making games for it just waiting for the market share to increase to a profitable level. It's not like they canceled all their big name N64 games and moved them over to the PSX. Games like Final Fantasy VII, Metal Gear Solid and Dragon Warrior VII.

Oh wait...

Yes they did.

Which means what that is relevant to this topic?

Quote
I know blank Blu-ray discs cost like $30 each at Staples... you can get like a whole spindle of 50 blank dvds for that price. So if that is the case, then developers will have a smaller profit margin and this too will increase their reluctance in developing for it...

Professionally stamped media isn't on the same cost scale as low-volume burnable media. It's more expensive than DVDs, naturally, but not bank breaking. The talk in the professional forums is that it's a few dollars per unit for lower-volume (sub-10K) productions. I'd imagine it's cheaper for larger projects.

 

[Ceric]

A few dollars in manafacturing is quite a bit.

[Chozo Ghost]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
A few dollars in manafacturing is quite a bit.

That's true. If Blu-ray costs only $2 a disc then that is still a HUGE difference over DVDs which may be like 10 cents a disc, or whatever. Granted, the price will probably go down... eventually, but it will probably always be more expensive, and if I am not mistaken there aren't really any PS3 games out now that need all the space Blu-ray gives, are there? It would be cheaper to break a game into 4-5 DVDs if it were necessary, than to put it on 1 blu-ray... and the number of games that would ever need that much space are very very small.

And then combine that media cost with what denjet78 said about Sony charging more royalties now and the profit margine shrinks even more... and then there is the cost of developing games for such advanced and complicated hardware, and finally the very very tiny installed base of potential game purchasers right now.

All of these factors (and perhaps others as well) make it very unsurprising that developers are pulling the plug on the PS3 and moving projects to other systems. Sony will probably be able to alleviate some of these issues over time, but I think they'll never rise above 3rd place this generation. That isn't to say they can't make the PS3 profitable (but that would be very very difficult in itself), or that they won't be alive and kicking for a PS4 in 5 years, but I'm firmly convinced they've lost this round.

The PS3 is basically a Ralph Nader, or at best a Ross Perot... by which I mean they won't win, but they might qualify for matching funds for the next battle in 4-5 years.

[Ceric]

Personally think Ross Perot could have cleaned up last election but thats me.

The disc cost will go down.  All new media types go through this initial expensive stage.  If Blu-ray continues to be doing "well" as a video medium then more of the disc will be made, etc, cost goes to where DVD are.  Now the royalty is another story and that will not change.  I think that will bite them more in the long run.

I worked for a company who job where to make prodcut lines and processes more efficient.  Every cent made a big change.