Author Topic: Official Sales Thread (Read 3957874 times)

Kairon · « **Reply #350 on:** January 12, 2007, 05:24:22 PM »

But they're never right...

The question is... how not right are they? Where do they lie in the grey zone between right and wrong, good and evil, chocolate and vanilla ice cream?

~Carmine "Cai" M. Rec
Kairon@aol.com

denjet78 · « **Reply #351 on:** January 12, 2007, 05:50:15 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
But they're never right...

The question is... how not right are they? Where do they lie in the grey zone between right and wrong, good and evil, chocolate and vanilla ice cream?

~Carmine "Cai" M. Rec
Kairon@aol.com

Wait a minute? There are shades of not-right-ness? I was never told this by my parents! All must die! All must perish for their impudence! Who else is guilty of this not-telling-me-things-that-I-should-know? WHO!?! Who else shall I raze to the ground? Who else shall I teach a thousand subtle shades of pain! A hundred ways to die! Before I finally lay their broken body at my master's table!

*breath*, *breath*, *breath*

You know I used to like chocolate when I was a kid but now that I'm older it's vanilla all the way. Funny how your tastes can change over time. Now what were we talking about?

KDR_11k · « **Reply #352 on:** January 12, 2007, 05:50:45 PM »

I think some Wiis ended up in markets that might get counted as Europe but really aren't (Australia, Brazil, ...).

BigJim · « **Reply #353 on:** January 12, 2007, 06:50:56 PM »

I guess the question is, What is it in NPD's formula that conclusively biases the results, and makes one's numbers more wrong than another?

Sort of like Nielsen TV ratings. People complain because the sampling is so small, but results are generally "equally wrong" and therefore are at least relatively accurate ratio-wise among each other, even though exact figures are elusive.

So what is it that NPD does wrong that slants the results? Is it Sony's larger retail presence in general (more stores = more track samples)? The world may never know...?

IceCold · « **Reply #354 on:** January 12, 2007, 07:32:05 PM »

Look who's back

BranDonk Kong · « **Reply #355 on:** January 13, 2007, 01:40:32 AM »

All I know is Nintendo's Wii sales total = Nintendo's Wii shipped total. When Nintendo says how many Wiis they've shipped in each territory, then we'll know the sales, give or take ~0.

KnowsNothing · « **Reply #356 on:** January 13, 2007, 03:28:54 AM »

~0 ~0 ~0O

sperm

Jin-X · « **Reply #357 on:** January 13, 2007, 01:11:21 PM »

This from the site owner of VG charts in their forum. He also says something ain't right here (cough, NPD BS, cough):

Quote
Hi all

It's Broshnat here, the site owner.

Regarding the Wii figures, like a number of other sources we projected Wii to sell more than 1 million in December. WMS, CBFS, Nintendo themselves all independently agreed with this. I know WMS have their own (limited) internal tracking a bit like we do - we get a heads up from a selection of stores - and figures were suggesting Wii sales similar to 360 and about double PS3. Obviously this isn't how things materialised - we don't know if the stores / tracking period we had data for was skewed, maybe at points where new shipments had arrived and Wii was selling large numbers - to be honest I don't really know. It seems strange WMS also predicted similar values as did a number of other reputable analysts.

The other factor is a statement from Nintendo that they had exceeded shipment expectations - thought to be just under 2m for NA in 2006.

Something does seem a little fishy here. I'm definitely not accusing NPD of foul play or anything like that, but their figure does seem much lower than everyone was expecting.

Having said that, we will obviously be fixing our main data on the front page once we have some more figures to support this. Accusations of bias towards Nintendo are not fair - we use the same system to arrive at figures for all 3 consoles. PS3 / 360 / DS / PSP numbers are all spot on, as are Wii Japan and 'Others' numbers - it's only this NA figure that has thrown people.

Thank you all again for supporting the site and please let these great discussions continue!

Link

Smash_Brother · « **Reply #358 on:** January 13, 2007, 04:23:24 PM »

I've personally purchased two Wiis from Wal-Mart and neither of those were counted in NPD's data.

Ergo...

IceCold · « **Reply #359 on:** January 13, 2007, 05:57:49 PM »

I agree that the extrapolation is quite inaccurate, but it should never cause a discrepancy of close to a million consoles..

Louieturkey · « **Reply #360 on:** January 13, 2007, 07:52:15 PM »

We have to continue to remember though that NA includes Canada and Mexico. While they won't be as high as the US, they aren't included in NPD number.

son of lucas · « **Reply #361 on:** January 14, 2007, 02:52:57 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold
I agree that the extrapolation is quite inaccurate, but it should never cause a discrepancy of close to a million consoles..

How about 300,000 consoles? That would get us within throwing distance of what we expected.

Jin-X · « **Reply #362 on:** January 14, 2007, 06:34:44 AM »

Exactly which stores does NPD not count?

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #363 on:** January 14, 2007, 07:01:21 AM »

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Toys R Us, Wal*Mart & all the little independent stores that may exist around the country.

Kairon · « **Reply #364 on:** January 14, 2007, 10:45:13 AM »

Pachter Ponders Wii Sales Data Gap

Quote
He explained, “Four million [Wiis] manufactured globally, the majority (2 million) going to the US, but only 1.1 million in the hands of consumers. Okay, probably 90,000 in Canadian consumers' hands, and probably 250,000 figure floating on barges. That leaves 560,000 unaccounted for.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

Jin-X · « **Reply #365 on:** January 14, 2007, 10:46:49 AM »

So lemme get this straight... If they don't/can't count Toys R US OR WalMart...Why are they viewed as official numbers? They have to be 2 of the largest, if not largest, sellers of consoles and video games (they get more shipments of consoles than EB/GameStop), and having taking Statistics courses that would seem to make their estimations have too large a margin of error to be considered reliable.

P.S. Your link isn't working Kairon.

Jin-X · « **Reply #366 on:** January 14, 2007, 10:55:22 AM »

Mulder: "Clearly Scully this confirms the existence of aliens, they have stolen the 560,000 Wiis to give them to their spoiled alien kids."

Scully: "Or the NPD is full of s**t."

Mulder: "Damn you and your 'logic' Scully."

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #367 on:** January 14, 2007, 11:02:36 AM »

sssss. They don't want people to know that.

There are major problems with the system that's why the console companies are the better gauge especially in the US since they do have an idea of how many have shipped and the sell through for most of the market since their reps do an check of stores every month if not more.

Kairon · « **Reply #368 on:** January 14, 2007, 11:26:07 AM »

In the case of Nintendo, the numbers from the manufacturer are much more reliable since Nintendo keeps track of how many units were sold and actually reports those numbers to us.

BUT, from MS and Sony, they don't keep track of how many units are actually "sold" and pass off shipment numbers as supposedly bought by consumers. In the case of MS and Sony, we can't rely on the official statements usually.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

MaryJane · « **Reply #369 on:** January 14, 2007, 12:19:09 PM »

Personally the exact number doesn't matter to me.

It's good enough to know the Nintendo thouroughly trounced PS3, and is hot on the heels of X360.

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #370 on:** January 14, 2007, 12:51:49 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Jin-X
So lemme get this straight... If they don't/can't count Toys R US OR WalMart...Why are they viewed as official numbers? They have to be 2 of the largest, if not largest, sellers of consoles and video games (they get more shipments of consoles than EB/GameStop), and having taking Statistics courses that would seem to make their estimations have too large a margin of error to be considered reliable.

P.S. Your link isn't working Kairon.

Just to clarify, I'm not 100% sure about TRU, but I KNOW they don't track Wal*Mart. I've only heard that TRU also refuses to give up their internal sales #'s. I could be wrong though.

Kairon · « **Reply #371 on:** January 14, 2007, 10:49:13 PM »

Wait a sec... I bought My Wii and like... 9 games from TRU! I'm not being counted! I'm being disenfranchised!

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

couchmonkey · « **Reply #372 on:** January 15, 2007, 02:58:12 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
Pachter Ponders Wii Sales Data Gap

Quote
He explained, “Four million [Wiis] manufactured globally, the majority (2 million) going to the US, but only 1.1 million in the hands of consumers. Okay, probably 90,000 in Canadian consumers' hands, and probably 250,000 figure floating on barges. That leaves 560,000 unaccounted for.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

I think Nintendo may have come up short on its shipments, but also we have some countries unaccounted for: I believe the system has launched in all of the "Americas", as well as Australia and New Zealand. I wouldn't be surprised if all of those put together took up several hundred thousand units.

As for NPD, it's not perfect, but it does attempt to account for the retailers it doesn't have and even Nintendo has quoted NPD data, so it can't be that far off from the truth. If anything, it must be more generous than Nintendo's own data.

Louieturkey · « **Reply #373 on:** January 15, 2007, 03:49:37 AM »

Austrailian Sales Figures for December.
Europe Sales figures for December.

So 50,000 from Australia. I'm guessing that does not include New Zealand or they'd say it did. 700,000 in Europe is pretty good. Are the UK numbers included in the Europe numbers or are those considered separate? If separate, that's actually 900,000 in European countries.

MaryJane · « **Reply #374 on:** January 15, 2007, 04:30:32 AM »

ummm... I know that us Americans are geographically impaired, but the UK is part of Europe. Unless you meant England...

News:

Poll

Will Nintendo pull off another 30 for 30 in Japan sales this year and, if so, how many times?

Author Topic: Official Sales Thread (Read 3957874 times)