Hey, you know...I hope Sony does release to Japan first. I have no worries about the Sony vs. Nintendo fight in Japan. Nintendo and Sony are both going to do good. But I think Nintendo is going to do great. It is going to be the system Japan favors this generation.
If Sony focuses on Japan, it means Nintendo will have a nice easier time in the US. Every single unit Nintendo sales above Sony in the US is Sony slipping ground. Why? Because despite what some analysists say Sony is going to have a hard uphill battle trying to get people to buy a very expensive new system, when one that looks just as good is $100 less, and then another one with brand new control system is even cheaper.
As well, Sony is going to have to fight a format war with HD-DVD and right now nobody really wants a format change. People are going to be skeptical to buy a new format until a few years down the road when the battle is decided...and that could mean waiting on the PS3.
Nintendo doesn't have any of these worries. They have Microsoft, which is a company that people love to hate...and Microsoft really botched up its early launch. Finally good games are coming out for the system, but Nintendo has a much better diversity of unique, odd games, and more traditional games at launch.