Author Topic: Analysts Suck (Read 6716 times)

Nick DiMola · « **on:** August 17, 2006, 04:22:32 AM »

"Boston-based research firm Yankee Group believes that the PLAYSTATION 3 will capture 44 percent of North American console sales by 2011. Following close behind will be the Xbox 360, grabbing 40 percent of the market. And dead last? The Wii at a very sad 16 percent."

I would love to know how these analysts come up with their predictions. Honestly have they not followed the whole Wii thing at all? The general attitude towards Nintendo has dramatically shifted and they are very strongly positioned for one of the best launches in video game history.

Microsoft has already proven that their system is solid and well done, and they have integrated Xbox Live so well into the 360 experience that most 360 users can't live without it.

And what has Sony proven? Nothing. All they have shown is that they are imitators, and douchebags(for using the PS3 to push Blu-Ray).

Let's not call the shots before all the players are on the field, speculating at this point in time is plain useless.

BiLdItUp1 · « **Reply #1 on:** August 17, 2006, 04:45:17 AM »

Dude, just ignore these people. Nintendo proved 'em wrong with the DS, and they have a good shot at proving them wrong with the Wii. It's very possible that these same people have been 'bout off anyways.

KDR_11k · « **Reply #2 on:** August 17, 2006, 04:55:22 AM »

Last I remember other analysts have recently revised their predictions to put the Wii in first place.

couchmonkey · « **Reply #3 on:** August 17, 2006, 05:24:17 AM »

This analyst's guess is as good as ours! Which is to say nobody has an f'n clue. I could actually see a scenario similar to this, but I think Wii would have more than 16%, maybe something like 40/36/24. I figure Wii is going to gain more ground than that (I believe GameCube is at less than 16%, but I'm not sure). I'm also becoming pretty doubtful of Sony grabbing more than Microsoft, but it could happen if the PS3 lineup gets sorted out by Christmas 2007.

bustin98 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 17, 2006, 06:02:10 AM »

That article on Gamespot has gotten almost 700 comments. I'm surprised how many people are defending the Wii. I always considered the fanbase over there pro Sony and MS.

Berto2K · « **Reply #5 on:** August 17, 2006, 06:36:49 AM »

Apparently this analyst group has had a very very bad track record. They've "guestimated" many things wrong and lost investors and such.

trip1eX · « **Reply #6 on:** August 17, 2006, 06:37:00 AM »

Analysts don't know what to make of the Wii and thus you'll see Wii sales predictions varying wildly. I think it's safe to say that the Wii does better than the Gamecube with lotst of upside potential.

KDR_11k · « **Reply #7 on:** August 17, 2006, 07:40:53 AM »

bustin: There's quite a few things converting internet users to the Wii even if they previously disliked Nintendo.

Smash_Brother · « **Reply #8 on:** August 17, 2006, 07:42:08 AM »

Paid by Sony.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #9 on:** August 17, 2006, 07:43:17 AM »

Made of fail and internet.

BigJim · « **Reply #10 on:** August 17, 2006, 08:27:11 AM »

If we removed baseless opinion from the internets then all we'd have left is p0rn.

They're considering industry history as well, which doesn't favor Nintendo at all in terms of marketshare. Though I think they're off the ball this time.

The only company losing marketshare next gen will be Sony. If Nintendo and MS at their worst can grab 15-20% each, they can certainly do better with better platforms, better prices, and a better time-to-market advantage.

That's my detailed and professional analysis and I won't even charge you $800 per report.

Dirk Temporo · « **Reply #11 on:** August 17, 2006, 09:42:41 AM »

What are they analyzing? The future? Don't they need, you know, DATA in order to analyze something?

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #12 on:** August 17, 2006, 09:47:24 AM »

they prably looked up NPD sales figures on Gamefaqs from LAST YEAR

pirateluigi · « **Reply #13 on:** August 17, 2006, 12:25:45 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
If we removed baseless opinion from the internets then all we'd have left is p0rn.

That's the internet I want!

On a more serious side, I've seen analysts saying things that put any and all 3 on top, but it makes sense, since analysts are paid to guess anyway.

Ceric · « **Reply #14 on:** August 17, 2006, 02:04:37 PM »

Though thats really out of tune with the general feel right now and the news coming out of all the companies. Especially Sony.

Mario · « **Reply #15 on:** August 17, 2006, 08:05:38 PM »

They only made this prediction so people would talk about them.

GoldenPhoenix · « **Reply #16 on:** August 17, 2006, 09:31:41 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Mario
They only made this prediction so people would talk about them.

I wouldn't be surprised, but even if they were serious we have to realize that individuals are still making these "predictions" and in turn there is much room for error. That is why I usually roll my eyes when any "expert" is used as proof of something, half the time they know less than the common person!

Mario · « **Reply #17 on:** August 17, 2006, 11:51:05 PM »

Especially when it's what they are paid to do...

KDR_11k · « **Reply #18 on:** August 18, 2006, 12:30:10 AM »

Over at Slashdot people say this agency is pretty much run by MS.

Infernal Monkey · « **Reply #19 on:** August 18, 2006, 12:41:47 AM »

I wish I got paid for this sort of thing.

"By 2009, Dreamcast will relaunch and capture 0% of the Sunday market"

The Omen · « **Reply #20 on:** August 18, 2006, 01:35:02 PM »

Today I think I like Burger King more than Wendy's.

This just in! Burger King will capture 80% of the fast food market by 2008!

Strell · « **Reply #21 on:** August 18, 2006, 01:59:49 PM »

Wendy's is going to have to go third party.

Mario · « **Reply #22 on:** August 18, 2006, 03:02:25 PM »

LOL Gamespot are actually pretending this crappy firm is credible??

Quote
GameSpot: Why do you think the Yankee Group report has the PS3 coming out on top?

Kaz Hirai: Different people have different opinions, and at this point in time they're all forecasts. And people make forecasts based on the information they have at hand--their experience with what the companies in this space have done in the past, et cetera. And I think that as far as the Yankee Group goes, they've looked at the information they had at hand. It's generally a very positive report, but you can tell they've done a lot of their homework because there are some things that we need to work on. We've had those ups and downs as far as manufacturing is concerned on the console, for example, and that's being properly addressed. So I think they looked at all the information they have at hand--good, bad, or indifferent--and came to this conclusion. And I obviously think that they did a great job on this report.

HAHAHAHAHA

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #23 on:** August 18, 2006, 04:46:44 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Mario

HAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHA

KnowsNothing · « **Reply #24 on:** August 18, 2006, 04:49:50 PM »

SIX-HUNDRED DOLLARS

News:

Author Topic: Analysts Suck (Read 6716 times)