Topic: Wii Time Capsule Thread: Predict the future

[GoldenPhoenix]

Sounds like a fair prediction Michael, like I alluded to in my post, E3 will be a big step in coming up with a solid prediction. If Nintendo can truly steal the show, gaining alot of media attention, I think things will turn out quite well. But if the Wii, only barely or ties with PS3 when it comes to show stealing, then I think things may turn out not so well in North america.

[wandering]

Quote
Can I have a classic roast beef and cheese please? (saw your Wawa avatar)

You want fries with that? (I don't know if they'd actually ask if you wanted fries. I've only ever gotten soft pretzels.)

I've thought about it, and I'm going to predict the Wii machine will be number one world wide by the end of the console cycle. It's just too interesting and too affordable and too jam-packed with awesomeness for anyone to pass up, methinks. Hard to say how well the PS3 will do in comparison without knowing the price, although I think if all goes well for Sony the Wii and PS3 will be very close...with PS3 probably selling better at first. I'm going to predict third place for the 360.  

[Ceric]

The Wii has already started stealing E3.  Sony ironically has an uphill climb.  Nintendos known for there booths especially after last year.

I believe that the Wii will have a strong launch in the number of units that get out.  I think that Nintendo will have a reasonable amount of units ready for the get go.  All pre-orders will be filled with 1 or 2 units extra for each store.  Nintendo is relatively good at pegging these things.  Then the next month there will be more coming in with possibly a different more complex color to fulfill the remaining demand.  At that point Nintendo will have some momentum.

Now one of 2 things will happen.  Nintendo will learn from there mistakes and take the ember they made and stoke it to a flame or they'll botch it again and lose the momentum.

Now the PS3 on the other hand is just not going to be able to produce enough units to catch up with the demand and probably won't until 6 months after the initial launch. (Lets face it.  God of War 2 is coming to the PS2.  That's a system seller right there if it's half as good as the original.  Plus its made by Sony itself.  Logic would dictate that since you announced it so close to you next gen console that you would leverage it to be a launch title.)  Sony can't take as much of a financial hit as it would need to get enough units out initially.  If Blu-ray becomes the format of choice then the PS3 will have more going for it after demand can be fulfilled.

Now, assuming that the PS3 and Wii launch at the exact same time, we are 6 months done the road.  Wii has more units out because it was able to fulfill the demand and a lower price mark.  PS3 finally has enough units out to fulfill demand and will if not already take the leading spots in units sold.  This quarter Sony will claim a good launch but a net loss and Nintendo will show a modest profit.  The most likely combinations of duel system is still 360 and Wii.  The people like webcomic writers will enjoy the Wii but still hang on the 360 because it's rebellious and has a good social system intact.  If Nintendo could maintain moment with good solid monthly, or more frequent, game releases on the Wii, any game, they have themselves in a good position to hold dominance.  If not they will end up being another Gamecube, a niche player.  PS3 is stilled in practice a niche system even though it is still herald as the leader.  Adoption is slow due to price and the lack of dedicated PS3 games because the PS2 still has a larger market share and is a known developement plaltform, we saw some of this with the NES/SNES transition.

Coming into E3.  Nintendo will work it's E3 magic.  MS will offer a more compact sleeker version of the 360 with wireless built in.  This is in response to technology prices dropping and the wider availabiliy of Wireless networks because of the Wii, DS, and PSP.  MS also announces a portable gaming device based off of its now thoroughly debug Windows Mobile Platform.  Learning from Sony MS will use a variant of Flash for games and also include the PDA functionalities because they get them for free.  Unlike Nintendo and Sony though MS is releasing a Spec to allow companies like Dell to manafacture these units.  This essentially becomes the MS portable and is posed to be somewhere inbetween a PSP and a DS.  More powerful then both but with Touchscreen ability.  Sony on the other hand releases information on a total redo of the PSP that addresses its fundamental ergonomic problems and will be the focus of the show.  That being said Sony, in an attempt to do damage control, will make sure they have a string of there strongest franchises showing up and teasers of the ones that won't be ready for a while, I'm look at you FF:XIII or FF:VII redo, whether the teasers actually become anything but teasers is to be seen.  All of these will be coming for the PS3.  In fact after a rough start Sony is going to try to give the impression that every game coming out is being developed for the PS3.  In actuallity once you stop wearing you Sony Rose Colored Glasses there are still a large number of PS2 games that are coming during the year.  Nintendo, not having the same problem since GCN support seemed to dry up a while back, is happily announcing new and innovative things for the Wii.  Nintendo will focus on the Wii and DS and by this time how they can get along.  GBA, while still receiving games, is left out in the cold.  Its too soon to announce its successor but we will probably hear nibbles by the end of the year.  During this E3, if Nintendo kept the momentum, we will hear some surprise announcements.  One of them being that Square will be re-releasing, again, all of the FF series on the Rev.  Either through the virtual console or compilation discs, any of the post snes ones.  Sony not liking were this is going.  Nintendo talks about how its blue ocean strategy has been taking the world by storm.  Also we are told that work has started on the Wii version of Zelda and that its going to touch its roots and be based off of the Original, wooden sword and all.  Of course it will be enhanced.  As of now Nintendo is seen as 1st place only because Sony didn't have a strong sort.  People will still think that Nintendo is in the last place stigma, though facts don't support it.  Also still I LOVE HALO 2.  Which is ironic because the Wii has a handful of games that are up for reevalution of there ranking to go from M to AO, in particular a very realistic hospital simulation and a mind bender like Eternal Darkness though at this time they are close to release pending the rating change.

I have to go work but I do have more ironically.  I hope you Enjoy reading this.  It's a little large and covers the industry in the whole but I don't think you can make a good prediction of you don't give what you think the landscape will be.

Edit:  Nintendo will also report at E3 its intention to bring some coordination and learning software the to table.

A couple years from now:  The Wii is enjoying a niche as a education tool and rehabilitation aid.  Who would of thought?  Even though games make a good portion of Nintendo's sales.  There is more hardware being sold to corporation and government then individuals due to unique training software.

[IceCold]

Wow, that's very ... thorough. I agree wholeheartedly that the post-launch period will make or break Nintendo, so they had better have something cooking.

[couchmonkey]

I think I already made some predictions.

I think this is a really interesting and hard-to-predict generation due to lots of strange moves from EVERY company.

Microsoft: Launched 360 really early.  Will it grab the lead and hold on, or will it look like outdated tech next to PS3?  Clearly the system is already a failure in Japan, and even if Sony were to drop the ball, Nintendo would catch it way before MS.  Kind of a shame, as I feel Microsoft has done a pretty good job over there, even getting some big exclusive Japanese RPGs, but then again, I don't mind seeing Microsoft fail...at anything.  Still, I do think Microsoft has true potential to beat Sony in Europe and North America if it has a better selection of games and a lower price.  It would be VERY good for MS if Halo 3 were ready within the next 11 months.

Sony: May have the most expensive system (though PSM is claiming it will cost the same as the deluxe XBox 360), and they're also launching a year after Microsoft.   On the other hand, you've got Blu-Ray playback.  I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't think the public is ready for a format change yet, but if Sony can actually launch it at the same price as the 360, then the feature is free, so who cares?  And it could be a huge selling point in a few years, who knows.

Nintendo: Is going completely nuts.  Nintendo has the most potential to fail miserably OR take first place by a landslide.  It all depends on whether the company can really attract the non-gaming public.  Actually, even if it can't, the system is still unique enough on its own that Nintendo could possibly see a big improvement over the GameCube.  As a hardcore gamer, I find the Wii concept WAY more interesting than either of the others, which are stuck on an awfully predictable path of incremental improvements.

In the end, I have a feeling PS3 and Xbox 360 will see a much closer race than last time, with Microsoft beating Sony in North America.  Nintendo could be anywhere on the map from distant third to unstoppable first, but I suspect it may find itself almost tied with the other two: losing a lot of current fans, but more than making up for it with non-gamers and curious hardcore and casual gamers.  It depends heavily on this Christmas.  In that time people will form their first impressions of all three systems, and we'll know whether or not Sony and Nintendo's launch games are any good, and whether or not Microsoft was able to answer the launches with a good second-generation lineup.

[Hostile Creation]

" I agree wholeheartedly that the post-launch period will make or break Nintendo, so they had better have something cooking. "

I recall some Nintendo employee (I forget who, Reggie or Iwata or someone) mentioning how the Gamecube had a dry spell after launch, and how that was a big mistake and  they wouldn't let it happen again.
Can't recall from where, but I'm fairly certain I'm not  making it up, so that's reassuring.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Historically hasn't Nintendo always had great launches sales wise? I am not taking into account handhelds or the VB, but instead looking at the home console launches.

[v00doo_child]

Everyone was extreamly sceptical about the DS and look at it now, Wii will be just the same i feel. Thats the only clear prediciton i can make

[nemo_83]

behold, I give you, the past


"What next generation really needs is depthening the gameplay experience. I want free standard online gaming. I believe the controller should become better at simulating our wants in the game. I would suggest a controller that is not only conforming and angled to fit the hands but also does more than any controller has ever done. A screen could become standard just as joysticks have. The left side of the pad would be your normal controller with a trigger and a shoulder button. Also a joypad and dpad. The right side should be a flight stick modified and attached to the left side with multiple functioning such as diagonal movements and turning."

"The camera used with the PS2 has given me lots of ideas for controlling basically any game with combat using the hands in the game. The system could use the camera in a next gen system to track the movement of the hand without the use of lightgun technology. Imagine detaching the flight joysick from the rest of the controller and it being the tracer point that the camera follows and uses in a game like Zelda or Soul Calibur allowing you to swing the sword. Perhaps this idea would work best if the controller for a proposed next gen game console were actually two controllers (one held in each hand) which the system tracks as the player moves his/her hands for sword swiping or punching or aiming a gun. This two sperate prongs idea could be used to allow for each prong to be used as a joystick with tilt technology giving the gamer two flight sticks instead of a camera tracing technology. What do you guys prefer?"

"Instead of hair and grass effects in games we will get dvd recorders. Instead of improved controllers we will get outrageous harddrives for what? MP3s? Pirating games? Cutting out the middle man and rentals with free demos for download instantly. Downloading old 2d games legally from say Nintendo or Sega?

The industry needs another revolution that can change the way we play not what we play on the machine."

-2003

[GoldenPhoenix]

Wow Nemo, you hit things almost dead on in 2003!  

[EasyCure]

i forgot about the chances of ps3 shortages are. they have an installed userbase that is huge since their 'number one' and they might end up in 360 territory at launch if their not careful.
nintendo would be able to benifit from this...

if the two systems did launch at the same time, ps3 could sell out, but there will still be millions who won't have one due to shortages. it could take months to restock so many ps3's, and parents not wanting to dissapoint their kids for christmas would probably pick up a Wii and a few games just to have something. If they were already going to spend the estimated $500+ for ps3 (and atleast ONE game), they could very well use that for a Wii that could launch at a max price of $250, leaving another $250 they were going to spend on one system with one game in their pockets. Now since im talking about america, and supposing this is a mother/father buying this for their only child, you just know they will spoil their kid, so that extra $250 could go into a few games, maybe even an extra controller or two. hell they'd have to if the kid was expecting a ps3 for xmas, he would need all the extras he could especially if he didnt know what Wii was. that alone could put nintendo head to head with sony, or atlast give them the advantage to catch up.

as for japan, im sure plenty of buzz is stirring. they are eating up the DS over there and all its 'non-games'. there was another thread in the Funhouse i believe where someone mentioned a japanese arcade game where the player basically gives someone a rectal exame with a giant controller in the shape of a pointing hand (its an arcade game).
just imagine what.....actually wait, i dont want to imagine a Wiimote being used for that game...needless to say it would be huge in japan. im gonna barf now

[The Omen]

I actually think the Wii will sell incredibly well in the American market right out of the gates.  The whole idea of becoming the characters in games is too great to pass up, especially if that's how it's marketed up front.

[IceCold]

2011

Sony introduces the WiiS4

The Vancouver Canucks win the Stanley Cup

EDIT: Damn, these bullets really don't work well..

[nemo_83]

I cannot predict the future until I have seen what everyone is doing at E3.  Right now my (optimistic) guesses would go:  PS3 US launch spring 07, Halo 3 fall 07, surprise software from Nintendo shown at E3, Nintendo stereoscopics at E3 (double-u-double-eye), Nintendo will offer complete access to their first party library downloads for a fee similar to Xbox LIVE, and Nintendo may shock everyone with their graphics at E3.  Final dev kits have been said to be at best four times the power of Xbox (but only Nintendo's peeps and SquarEnix have them).  Nintendo is surounded by fog right up until E3, who knows what they may unveil.  

[IceCold]

Quote
Originally posted by: Hostile Creation
I think we need to change the name of the website to planetwiian.com.

What Is In A Name?

[BigJim]

Can we change our predictions?

The PlayStation 3 serves too many masters. It has become a $600 mecha-beast stuffed full of features that every other chief wanted incorporated into the device. While the system will be a product of envy, Sony prices themselves out of being able to attain their PS2 glory, and isn't even a desireable 2nd console because the price will take years to reach $300 or less.

360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%  

[wandering]

Quote
The PlayStation 3 serves too many masters. It has become a $600 mecha-beast stuffed full of features that every other chief wanted incorporated into the device. While the system will be a product of envy, Sony prices themselves out of being able to attain their PS2 glory, and isn't even a desireable 2nd console because the price will take years to reach $300 or less.

And yet the Wii won't be able to do any better sales wise?

[BigJim]

30% is more or less double their current marketshare, as is 360's. Baby steps, grasshopper.