Topic: Rev Predictions

[KDR_11k]

Brian Training? That sounds like a dating sim of some sort except I wouldn't play it unless that Brian stands for "Brianrietta".

[couchmonkey]

The full title is, "Brian Training: Whip your boyfriend in only minutes a day!", and it's kind of a post-dating dating sim.  Revolution for the Girl Gamer win!

[Bill Aurion]

Holy CRAP, I'd buy that in a second! =O

[JonLeung]

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Originally posted by: couchmonkey
I don't think Mario 128 will be ready in time, but E3 may prove me wrong.

There's been talk of another Mario adventure game (Mario remakes, RPGs, vs. Donkey Kong, etc. aside) in what seems like forever (shortly after Sunshine, I believe), so it's possible that Miyamoto's just been hiding it until an opportunity like this E3 comes along.

[couchmonkey]

I think you're kind of right JonLeung, it's pretty much anybody's guess whether it's ready or not.  I mean, the last thing Miyamoto said was that they aren't even sure what type of game it is yet (sounds really bad) but on the other hand, Reggie was saying we'd see it at last year's E3 at one point.  Who knows?  I hope it'll be ready at or near launch, but I'm thinking of the games that seem likely for launch, it's most likely to be delayed (with Miyamoto's new game in second place and SSB: Melee in third)

Edit: digging up an old thread, but I want to see how my predictions turn out.

My previous prediction said the system would launch in September in North America.  I now think that late October or November is more likely.  I think Nintendo will not launch in Europe or Australia this year, either.

[wandering]

The thing I've learned is that you can't infer anything from statements from Nintendo. They don't lie, exactly....it's just that it's impossible to extrapolate any realistic view of what their doing from any but their most concrete statements.

[couchmonkey]

Time to open up the time capsule and see how wrong I was with my predictions...

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Originally posted by: couchmonkey

Baseless sales predictions:

End of 2006:
Xbox 360: 10 million
PS3: 7 million
Rev: 2 million (depends on how many are available since it will probably launch at year's end, and therefore will probably sell out).

Woah, WAY off-base on the PS3 there.  Xbox 360 is in line with Microsoft's predictions, I wonder if I just copied what they said, or if I came up with that on my own.

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End of 2007:
PS3: 20 million
Xbox 360: 19.5 million (emphasis on a very close race with Sony just edging MS out)
Revolution: 14 million

This could still happen, but now I predict PS3 will do worse and 360 will do a tiny bit better.  My Wii estimate is maybe slightly low, but I don't think it's that far off, actually.

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Other crazy predictions:

System will launch in North America in Sept. 2006 (Now that we have more info, November is more likely, but I'm willing to admit my mistakes).

We'll see game footage before Nintendo's E3 conference (In retrospect, this is probably wrong too ).

Ooh, it's embarassing how wrong this is!

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Originally posted by: couchmonkey
Predicted launch lineup (within the first 4 weeks of launch):
1. New Miyamoto game
2. SSB: Online
3. Metroid Prime 3
4. Brian Training?

I don't think Mario 128 will be ready in time, but E3 may prove me wrong.

Ha ha ha, totally wrong.  They tried for Prime 3 and Brain Training was a smart guess, but the only thing I actually got right was Mario Galaxy not being ready.


BONUS: New prediction... If Nintendo gets more than 40% of the marketshare, it will take at least three years for first-party games to become Player's Choice titles.  --I promise not to bug anyone about this in the Steven Kent's drunk friend thread anymore.

[Ceric]

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Originally posted by: Ceric
Wow.  You know on the subject of people thinking the PS2 is the strongest this gen.  Most people think the Gamecube is the weakest.  It doesn't get to me as much when it someone I consider uninformed in the area of Hardware.  But when it's one my Computer/Electrical Engineering friends that sort of bothers me.  I correct them and go on.  The funny part is I keep seeing games that were originally GCN titles showing up on the 360 and hearing rumors the reason is that the original Xbox was just not powerful enough to do the game how it was planned on the GCN.  Everyone will admit that the Xbox was the handsdown raw power house this generation.  Nintendo just makes smart choices on there hardware in comparison.  Know what to dedicate to hardware and what not too is very important.  I have Karoake Revolution Party for my GCN (That was a hard find, ironically enough I finally found Cubivore on the same day.  The three year search is now over, so far that game rocks.  Someone needs to go over and Kick Atlus around because this isn't the only game of there's I want and they limitted the release.), from the screens I've seen of the PS2 version it looks a lot better on the GCN and the sound is just great and they didn't sack any songs.  Go Ogg Vorbis.

ok Prediction:

$250  Full PackageGot
No Rev game includedGot for Japan but not here
Tutorial built into snazzy new interfaceUndetermined
2 "Downloads" from a set listUndetermined
Unfortunately it will come with RCA hookups like every other Nintendo console except the VB, maybe even the same connector but rumor has it this will be wireless.I'm fairly sure thats right minus the Wireless
May be able to get the USB Wi-Fi adapter for the cheap with the purchase of a new SystemTBD
Rev will actually be smaller then it is nowGot, at least I think it shrunk from the prototype at the time
That whole outer case will be able to be replaced for skinningSadly no
The system will have a mysterious "Exp" port that will never be used outside of JapanI'm putting this at TBD

[BigJim]

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Originally posted by: BigJim
I believe the Rev's second year will be just as important as it's first year.

They're designing it to be an industry shaker. "Shakers" don't usually realize their success (or potential success) in the early adoption days. The ipod is one obvious example of this. They didn't really take off until Christmas '04, and it was out for well over a year by that point.

The first year will be all about the early adopters and building awareness for the newbies. It probably won't see sales much different than GameCube at that point. The second year will be the year of momentum and will be more telling of the system's long term success, I think. This is true for most new products, but should be especially true with Rev considering Nintendo's goals for it. It'll live or die on year 2, IMHO.

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Most reasons people mention why Nintendo shouldn't aim to be the second console are mostly emotional and ego.

They're going to launch a year after 360, and possibly head to head with PS3 if that is delayed (which some developers seem to think will happen). They're not going to be number one, whether they shot for it or not. Their relevance in the console market is questionable. Why fight a battle you're not going to win? Even from a business standpoint it's simply inefficient.

The train is already on the track. They're aiming to be different. The fate was sealed with the controller. Even though they're all making games, Nintendo's track is going in a different direction.

Didn't Reggie's speech mention that there is a 25% platform crossover? That's in a market where they are all essentially competing on the same level. GameCube somewhat competed as a second console, at least in price, but that wasn't until the price dropped later in the cycle and the system's fate was already determined.

Nintendo is banking on 360 and PS3 being too similar for most people to want/need both. If their assumption is correct, the crossover potential is Nintendo's to own.

If Nintendo proactively markets Revolution as a secondary alternative (whatever terminology they use), raises the crossover penetration modestly (even just to 30%), keeps the price low, continues to sell to their built-in fan base, AND bring in the new players, they have a fighting chance of increasing their market share while the other guys keep dogging it out. They'd probably still end up in 3rd place, but with more marketshare and mindshare. Hopefully they'll have sold the concept of the controller, which helps them in the fight of 2011 if the others copy it.

A lot of steps there, but it's possible.

Re: 1st year. As I mentioned I think the 2nd year will be just as important as the first, considering the distinct part of Nintendo's strategy to grow the market with new players. The first year will be all about early adopters and the built-in fan base. They're the ones that would have bought it anyway. The newbies aren't going to pick it up fresh off the assembly line. Those buyers need time. The crossover buyers need time too. Year 2 will be about riding momentum that year 1 begins to execute.

Of course, EVERYTHING hinges on this darn controller. It's either genius or insane.

I pretty much still stand by those, "predictions" or not  I made sales/marketshare predictions in another thread, though.

[Kairon]

Sorry Ceric but you have a couple of errors there. 2 of your "gots" are actually "NOT GOTS" and one of your undecideds is a "NOT GOT" as well.

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Originally posted by: Ceric

ok Prediction:

$250  Full PackageGot
No Rev game includedNOT GOT, the Japan package is $215, so if this was counted, your $250 price would be invalid, which would come out to the same count anyways
Tutorial built into snazzy new interfaceUndetermined
2 "Downloads" from a set listUndetermined
Unfortunately it will come with RCA hookups like every other Nintendo console except the VB, maybe even the same connector but rumor has it this will be wireless.I'm fairly sure thats right minus the Wireless
May be able to get the USB Wi-Fi adapter for the cheap with the purchase of a new SystemTBD
Rev will actually be smaller then it is nowNOT GOT, the Wii has actually grown a bit beyond the three DVD case target, but yes, it is still very small
That whole outer case will be able to be replaced for skinningSadly no
The system will have a mysterious "Exp" port that will never be used outside of JapanNOT GOT, the Wii may be the first Nintendo home console without mysterious unused expansion ports, and no, USB ports do not count

All in all, you made 10 predictions (counting the wireless rumor that you didn't really commit to as your own prediction, but let's include that since you included it yourself).
Of these ten predictions...
2 were GOT.
5 were NOT GOT.
3 were TBD.

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Originally posted by: Nosferat2

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Originally posted by: vudu

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
No one denies that Nintendo is profitable.  But profit doesn't mean squat to a gamer.  Only market share benefits us.

Tell that to a Dreamcast owner.

If the Dreamcast had more market share there would be no need to "tell that to a Dreamcast owner."

By that i mean if the Dramcast had more market share it in turn would get more profit and in turn would still be here...

Sort of makes it an interesting factoid that the XBox 360 is tracking behind the Dreamcast for installed base... if marketshare mattered so much, why is the DC dead and the X360 alive and kicking?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[IceCold]

Heh, I thought it would be released on Canadian Thanksgiving, but Turkish Delight Weekend has long since gone!

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Call me a blind Nintendo fanboy, but I'm predicting the Rev will be first this upcoming gen

See wandering? That's where I remember it from.. That's you, in January! Before E3 even. You're looking pretty smart now, aren't you?

[Ceric]

Hey Kairon read for goodnes sake GOT FOR JAPAN BUT NOT HERE
Tell me how long you've spent with the Wii in person physically holding it Kairon before you declare that it doesn't have an Expansion port.
Also point me to the article that states that the Wii has gotten bigger since the Prototypes at the time go on.

For goodness sake there was not reason to be rude about the whole thing.

[Kairon]

I was rude? Oh, terribly sorry. I'll try not to let it happen again.

Anyways, I merely said that it's sorta misleading to claim two predictions true when they're mutually exlusive. Decide: are you evaluating your predictions based on the US, or Japan?

And we've all seen the breakdown of the Wii's ports in multiple angles and in multiple hands-on videos. The whole reason that the "front flap" contained "holoprojectors OMG" is that it was the last mystery flap. The back just had 2 USBs, a power port, a proprietary video/audio port, and the sensor bar port. And there's the GC flap, and no secret bottom power flap or whatnot. You can even watch the IGN Weekly where Massamassina handles the Wii for like 10 entire minutes showing us every single orifice. Likely, future mysterious expansion slots were cut for price reasons.

And as per your request:

IGN's Nintendo Wii Faq improves on the vague size reports that Nintendo's Wii page to peg the exact dimensions at 157 mm x 215.4 mm x 44 mm, which comes out to about 1487 cm cubed.
In contrast, according to Supermediastore.com, a standard industry dvd case sits at 135 mm x 192 mm x 14 mm. tripling that last 14 mm figure for the thickness of three stacked dvd cases, we come to about 1088.64 cm cubed.
The Wii is longer, wider, and has more...volume, than three dvd cases stacked on each other, which is what the Wii's prototypes were based on. It is, however, not as thick.

Now, I'm working off the assumption that the Revolution prototype they had at E3 2005 was the size of 3 DVD cases stacked on top of each other, which was the size they were aiming for. Besides, the 2005 E3 Revolution Prototype was just an empty case. I think that's a relatively safe assumption to make. If you're going to make an empty case for your prototype, why not not make it at your targetted size?

But seriously, I'm just correcting you is all! Predicting the future is tough business, and you should be proud that you even got two right. That's a 20% success rate. I'd think that even a 15% success rate at predicting the future out of infinite possibilities would be the paragon of human prescience!

I mean... none of my predictions came right...

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[wandering]

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Originally posted by: IceCold
Heh, I thought it would be released on Canadian Thanksgiving, but Turkish Delight Weekend has long since gone!

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Call me a blind Nintendo fanboy, but I'm predicting the Rev will be first this upcoming gen

See wandering? That's where I remember it from.. That's you, in January! Before E3 even. You're looking pretty smart now, aren't you?

Or else I'm looking like a blind Nintendo fanboy.

But I agree with my past self about the Wii controller being to the Wii what fmvs were to the psx. *High-fives past self*

[Griffin]

Jeez man! Haven't you seen Time Cop?! Same matter cannot occupy the same space!!

[JonLeung]

Yeah, but after a few years, most of the particles that make up your body have been replaced by other particles, so it might be okay to high-five your past self if enough time has passed.  Just don't headbutt each other really hard, I think the brain doesn't really change much.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

SOMETHING IS WRONG HERE

FMVs did not improve the gameplay experience.

*maybe they gave you something nice to look at after dredging through mucky grafix and gameplay.  Here's your reward for SWIMMING IN MUD!  A POSTER THAT DEPICTS A BAR OF SOAP!