Those sound like pretty good predictions BlackNMild, though I'd add that if the PS3 is expensive enough, I won't be surprised if MS skips the price drop.
Good point, Ian. Personally, I don't think selling the hard drive separately will hurt Microsoft that much, but I guess it's hard to say. Unlike the PS2 hard drive, Xbox owners are already used to having a hard drive, Microsoft is offering the Xbox 360 hard drive right at launch, it sells a console bundle that includes the hard drive, and Microsoft and some third parties have released bonus content using the hard drive in the past. I think it will be a much hotter item than the PS2 hard drive.
It's still a tough outcome to predict though. Nobody has ever launched a major console along with an expensive peripheral that might be required to play certain games before. Some consoles had peripherals you could add, but most of them came out later and were even more expensive than this hard drive.
Edit: I think the NES also came in more than one version. I think some versions included the Light Gun and, for a short while, R.O.B., while others were more straightforward.