Topic: I predict Nintendo will be #3 again...

[xts3]

I predict Nintendo will be #3 again.... what do you guys think?  I just don't see Nintendo pulling away from the man with near infinitely deep pockets like Sony and MS.  They can essentially bribe and pay developers to keep their games exclusive for next-gen, I dont think Nin has the money to do this.  I mean look at the insane thing MS did when they bought rare.  That was one less all-star dev making games for the cube, a very tactical decision on MS's part even though it costs them way too much, but thats not much for a company worth $47 billion.

[Pale]

Stop thinking so much and play some games.

[Bill Aurion]

They can essentially bribe and pay developers to keep their games exclusive for next-gen, I dont think Nin has the money to do this.

Um, no...Sony is the one that shouldn't be throwing around money for exclusives considering how deep they are in debt...(And geez it was Ninty who sold Rare to MS...Rare wasn't stolen)

I say Ninty will gain much well-deserved marketshare, so let's see who's right in a couple years...

[ThePerm]

First of all Nintendo has been making a profit all of this generation..secondly they are probay wortyh 50 billion themselves...thirdly Sony isnt really doing that great(aside from ps2)....in other words they have exagerated value.
Ms though is really rich. However..they are a sophomore company in the video game business...

sophomore
From the Greek words Sophos; meaning wise, and Moros; meaning fool, or foolish. Literally, a 'wise fool'.

[Ian Sane]

If things continue as they are this gen then yeah Nintendo will be third again.  But things are changing.  MS wants to make a profit this gen which will limit spending.  Plus they're going to have the weakest hardware.  Sony and MS are clearly going in a multimedia direction and neither of them seem to consider gaming as an important part of the equation.  This is going to irritate some devs.  Nintendo might not have the spending money but they have cred as a developer and they relate better to true game artists.  Sure there will always be sellouts but at the very least Nintendo will be the obvious choice for developers who don't want gaming to become dumbed down mainstream product.

Plus Nintendo is changing.  They're going online for example which is a very big deal.  And the Revolution is supposed to have this whole new way of doing things.  We don't what it is but it could be a major advantage.  We'll have to wait until E3.

I think a bigger factor than spending is the Revolution itself.  If the Revolution is way too weird then I'd say there's no doubt Nintendo will be in last place.  But if it's truly amazing and doesn't ruin traditional game design then I think they have a good chance of knocking at least one of the others off.

One thing that is important is that the Rev will likely be different so at the very least it will be seen as a clear alternative.  The N64 for example didn't do as well as people wanted but it still was the clear number two because it was so different from the Playstation.  It had it's own mostly exclusive library and it offered a different experience which made it a clear alternative.  The current three consoles are too similar.  You can't really make a Cube game that would never work on the other systems so there's less incentive to make an exclusive for hardware reasons.  If the Rev is different at the very least a game made for it can't be ported so right there there is a hardware related reason for a developer to choose the Rev.

[Guitar Smasher]

I really don't think MS will be around after the next gen.  Right now they're popular because they provide the most.  They won't be doing this next gen.  PS3 will provide the better graphics, and Revolution the alternative experience.  By jumping the gun, MS is ensuring that Xbox 2 will be less capable than PS3, and consumers will lose interest.  You have to remember that the current Xbox fanbase consists of open-minded gamers who figured they'd give them a try.  They'll be just as quick to jump ship when they realize that there's better gaming out there.

[Don'tHate742]

"You have to remember that the current Xbox fanbase consists of open-minded gamers who figured they'd give them a try."

You're right. At one point they were, but now.....most of them are hardcore fanatics (or Halo fanatics, whichever).

The Rev will do well, but like Ian said, it comes down to the Revolution experience. Everything rides on E3, so until then, let's not bring up this subject anymore.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

 #3 or #300 doesn't matter, as long as they make a profit and the great games keep flowing, anyone who thinks the REV will restore Ninty to dominance is fooling themselves, its going to be too new and quirky to do that, but it will expand the industry and give it a shot of innovation which is sorely lacking.

[Grant10k]

Rare has been going downhill ever sense the Goldeneye team left. (Save for Conker's BFD, which didn't sell that well so one could argue that it's still considered going downhill)

[pitbull]

They won't be #3.#2 at the very least. I was disgusted with J's presintation. The HD era? That's garbage. Revolution will cost somewhere between 299-199 and MS and Sony will mark there's at about 399 plus(maybe). Nintendo is doing the right thing by doing what they do(innovation). Remember who brought us the D-pad the select button(now useless though) the analog stick,shoulder buttons,wireless controlers for the Nes,the first 6 button controler, the rumble pack/device, the mat that you ran on for track and field(Nes game),the robot that came with Nes, the power glove. The N came out with some impressive stuff for the Nes when I was about 8. I trust that Rev will do great things.

[nickmitch]

I think that it will all wind down to Sony Vs. Nintendo.
Sony's just too pwerfull and Nintentdo's too legit to quit (mc hammer).
Microsoft will more than likely realize that they're not making money and just bail out next gen.
They're not going to go broke, mind you, but they will eventually realize that it wasn't worth the investment.

[PaLaDiN]

I predict they'll be #4, replaced by the Phantom.

[BlkPaladin]

The thing about Halo is that there may be only one more, and if there is more it may not be Bungie making it, so the Xbox 2 will more then likely see a spectacular start but if there isn't another title to take it place Microsoft could see its userbase go stagnate. (Also if Halo 3 doesn't deliver the same thing could happen, but I don't think that will be a problem.)

Another thing that could happen is that Microsoft could lose some the users that were increamental this generation next generation. A lot of them were computer gamers who were promised some things that may not have been delivered. Also DVD capablity will not be a factor.

And it will be a closer race but Nintendo will be second or third again making a whole mess of money again. How well Sony, who will be first again more than likly, does may depend on how well the PSP users are enamored. It coul mean a difference between a 15% lead and a 5% lead.

[KDR_11k]

I'm speculating on MS taking the number one. A console maker falls after two lead gens and gets replaced by a newcomer.

[slingshot]

1 spot for NINT would be cool- like the home team winning.  But all I really care about is me.  If I love it- and I know I will.  I've
never been disappointed with a NINT system.  I just want great gaming experiences like when I played FF2 and FF3.  The
PS versions of FF were cool for their cinamatics, but now that we have seen so much CG animation in movies, it has worn thin,
and I am looking for more than just cool cut scenes.  I want a more nostalgic feel to next gen RPGs.  If FF won't come back for
a really great title, someone needs to put one out on the REV.  Great score, beautiful graphics

(not necessarily photo- real looking stuff, but lots of animated environments.  I want the leaves on trees to shuffle and
blow in swift  breezes.  Give me some cool light effects in the trees.  Waterfalls that spray everywhere.  Daytime,
nighttime effects.  open planes, mountains that make you feel miniature.  Sprawling castles, lots of ancient looking
gears.  Magic that makes your toes curl.  

We are waiting...

[Spak-Spang]

I am actually predicting Nintendo to do much much better next generation, but I still say they will be considered number 2 or 3 depending...but it will be a tie.

I really don't see Sony doing that great next generation.  Microsoft is being extremely aggressive in marketing and delivering a unique product with Xbox 2.  I thought the whole HD generation was stupid...but I also think their online plan is brilliance.  Pushing a community and striving to create the perfect online experience will make the Xbox 2 the system to own for online gaming.  Period.  That alone will help boost Xbox above PS3s position.  

On the PS3.  I haven't really heard, or read anything spectacular about it.  The rumors suggest it will use Blue-Ray disk technology for incredible storage and viewing high defination movies.  Well, I don't see the market really getting behind that as much as DVD technology.  It won't be an issue.  There isn't a large outcry for better home movie technology yet.  

I also think technology isn't advancing as fast as we think it is.  Microsoft can easily design a system that will release early and still be close to equal to the competition in hardware specs.  Though reality is that won't really matter anyway.  

Now, when it comes to the Revolution, Nintendo has an underground hype going on.  Their is an anticipation to see something great from Nintendo, and see a second coming.  See everyone respects Nintendo as a company, and knows how great they are.  Most people believe Nintendo will have a second coming and a rebirth.  Anything to shows innovation and creativity by Nintendo in the hardware will be embraced.  Just look at the success of the DS, and the excitement over the Revolution.  I think that is pretty good proof.

If Nintendo delivers half of what its promising then Nintendo will gain back its marketshare to number 2 easy.  If they totally blow everyone's mind and have the games to support it, then Nintendo will easily gain 1 place.

The more I think about Revolution, the more I begin to believe Nintendo isn't necessarly talking about just a new controller...but a whole new concept and understanding in gaming for us, but mostly for Nintendo.  I think Nintendo's revolution may actually be in the technology and how they use it to go online.  If this is the case, Nintendo may even out do Microsoft...but again they will have to beat that perception that MS knows online.

Those are just a few of my thoughts.

[slingshot]

I am curious about some things with the DS and REV.  I wonder if Nintendo will reach out to such un-fished waters
as the Business community for gamers.  No one would have imagined a game that is basically a "fake" stock market right.  
What if NIntedo made a "stock market game" for businesmen(and women)?  Buying and selling- earning... None of us gamers
would get into it too much, but there are a lot of non gamers that may gravitate to stuff like that.  Even people that want to
learn the stock market to play for real could get into it.

And what about a game where you are a guy in a cubicle-job, like on the movie Office Space.  You could go around the office
and kick your bosses @$$, and do stuff you aren't supposed to= just bust stuff up.  That could be a cool stress relief for
people.

[RickPowers]

Wow, you guys are doing a lot of thinking and getting precisely nowhere.  

Nintendo will do well if and only if they succeed in their stated goal of further developing the market.  If they can bring in more casual gamers, and specifically, more WOMEN, Nintendo could stand to be a runaway success.  The problem (for US, not for Nintendo) is that they seem willing to work towards that goal exclusively, which makes me wonder where their fans factor in.  One or two releases a year catering towards us might not be enough fo the diehards.  That appears to be a sacrifice Nintendo is willing to make.

I'm seeing another problem for Nintendo, though.  PRICING.  Nintendo claimed that the DS was designed to appeal to the casual gamer, and you can see that in the initial series of games for the device.  The problem I'm seeing is that the cost is just too high for that market.  Casual gamers tend to play games on devices that have a primary purpose apart from playing games ... cell phones, personal computers, etc.  $200-300 on a cell phone is a purchase they can make, and if they can play a few games on it too, then so be it.  Likewise for a $1000 computer.

That same market will NOT pay $150 for a device that can only play games, and adds more weight.  They're not going to pay $30-40 for each game.  I think that this is a critical miscalculation on Nintendo's part.  That said, I'd bet that if you looked at the demographics, you'd find that most of the people that picked up the DS at launch were already fans.  If Nintendo were expanding the market for games with the DS, I think you'd be seeing this already.  I think Christmas will be VERY telling.

[Spak-Spang]

Slingshot:  There have been PC games like what you suggested.  They haven't done too well.  It really is impossible to create a true Stock Market game anyway.  How do you produce the random/notso random life of business, hype, profit/loss, and people.

The best way to get the business user is to get smart software utilties (like the DS palmpilot) and also provide simple, smart games that they can play on the way.  

[PJ gamer10]

This is probably a reason why Nintendo has added those new software titles such as the dictionary and language programs. Also does the Play-yan, (if thats even what it's called) play into this? Nintendo trying to offer more things to do with the DS then to just play games. Is it possible that Nintendo will also drop the price of the DS before the holiday season to attract more casual users or maybe perhaps, bundle the system with the software titles mentioned above?

[Galford]

The question is can Nintendo reverse the mind share it's been losing these
last  2 generations?  

I can live with Nintendo being in 3rd place if it means carving
some market/mind at Sony/MS's expense.

[mjbd]

Nintendo actually has 5 billion dollars in the bank, thats allot of money.  Although this generation hasnt been as profitable for Nintendo as the N64 days, its still been pretty good.  I dont think Sony will be quite as dominant as this generation.  I think Nintendo is going to retain its currect market simply because I believe that the Nintendo userbase buys Nintendo systems solely for the exclusives.  If the new elements of gaming that Revolution brings to the table are as good as Nintendo is saying, then I believe they will expand the market and expand their own market share at the same time.  Just as Nintendo is doing with the DS.

[Ian Sane]

"The problem (for US, not for Nintendo) is that they seem willing to work towards that goal exclusively, which makes me wonder where their fans factor in. One or two releases a year catering towards us might not be enough fo the diehards. That appears to be a sacrifice Nintendo is willing to make."

Only 1 or 2 a year?  Damn that's way lower than I was thinking and I was thinking pretty low.  Low enough to question a console purchase.  I wouldn't go for 1 or 2 a year even if the console only cost what the Cube costs now.  Boy would that be the biggest "f*ck you" to fans ever.  "Hey thanks for supporting us through ten years of hard times.  We would just like you to know that your loyality and faith in us was unappreciated and a waste of your time as we've decided to stop making games for you."

[Talon]

Nintendo only pushing out 1 or 2 games a year is absolutely absurd.  Nintendo are a huge company they have alot of resources as well as workers. Not to mention they would be putting all their eggs in the one basket there is no way Nintendo as a company would adone such a business plan.  Nintendo's franchises alone sell whether or not the games are really awesome or really crap so from a business point of view they would be trying to pump out as many titles as they possibly can.

[couchmonkey]

Talon: I think they're saying one or two games aimed at the classic Nintendo fanbase, with the other 10 or so games being aimed at luring in a new market - not only one or two games in total.  Having said that I think they're being pessimistic.  I expect more like 3-5 games for the classic fanbase per year, and I think there's also an unfair "us vs. them" mentality here: personally I'm very interested in the new products Nintendo is putting out - more so than I would be if they were all traditional gamers' games.

Now for my incredible predictions!

Microsoft: first in North America for a couple of years, then it will start to peter out because Microsoft isn't willing to lose as much money as it did last time.  I think the situation will be the same but a little less upbeat for Europe (maybe tied instead of in first place) and I think it will be dead-last in Japan.

Sony: Unless SquareEnix jumps ship, which I think is unlikely, PS3 will claim first in Japan again.  In North America and Europe I expect it to do battle with Microsoft and eventually take first place again.

Nintendo: Basically, my other predictions leave Nintendo in the same place as this generation, BUT: First of all I think the whole race is going to be closer than last generation, nobody is going to dominate like Sony did this generation, so third place could be a lot more lucrative than it is right now.  Second of all, Revolution's new features are a "wild card" which makes it hard to predict what's going to happen.  In a best-case scenario I could see Nintendo taking second in NA and Europe (after a couple of years) and maybe even first place in Japan - at least a much stronger second place.  In a worst-case scenario I could see Nintendo bombing miserably if the features don't appeal to most people and alienate developers that want to create "normal" games.