Author Topic: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux  (Read 15893 times)

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Offline slingshot

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2005, 02:56:30 AM »
The pics could look phenominal, but if the motion animation is choppy or slow, or unnatural- it will break the illusion of reality.  I agree.

Offline slingshot

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2005, 03:52:41 AM »
My previous comment was about the boxing game.  Since then I looked at the Unreal link- holy !!!!  Those are awesome!  Can't wait 2C the next gen games!

Offline Spak-Spang

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2005, 07:39:24 AM »
I do not think a Crash will happen because of the direction of video games and the expenses.  The game industry will just evolve to solve the problem.

Also, if Sony blunders another company will be there to pick up the slack.  Just like Sony picked up the slack on the mistakes of Nintendo's N64.  Business is very competitive, and if money can be made then someone will revive any and all slowing businesses.  Period.

On to the topic of that Unreal 3 engine.

Those pictures are amazing, but what I thought after seeing them was:
"Gee, I wish I could see what a creative cartoon world could look like with that engine."  

Seriously, the world and the characters were boring.  


Offline Don'tHate742

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2005, 08:43:41 AM »
I agree.....if it has no personality. I realize that it's a demo, but it still lacked any creativity. It looked like a  action figure doll instead of a dangerous beast. A WW would be oh so nice.
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Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2005, 12:35:32 PM »
Quote

Originally posted by: KDR_11k
Wasn't the point of XNA to abstract development to the point where the platform no longer matters?

Nemo: How about cutting that to the relevant parts?


Sony is teh dOOmed!

Just kidding, I just wanted to show that despite any damage control you may read about how great things are in the industry even Sony is visibly worried as all hell right now.  People are confused about where the market is going or if it is about to be gone again due to some unseen twenty year macro cycle.  

Sony is dozens of billions of dollars in debt and they only have about three or four billion bank left.  The ipod is killing Sony's portable music division.  Nintendo may release a second handheld aimed at competing with the PSP and Nintendo reps say they want to kill the blue ray based PS3 by making the Revolution like an ipod.  MS is also going for Sony's sports gamers which generate much of Sony's software sells.  If people were not tired of the old way of gaming then GameCubes would be flying off the shelves at this point in the generation as the PS2 is burned out literally.  Sony is shaking in their boots, maybe because the CELL will not deliver on its promises, and maybe because they are afraid of a crash.  Fact is they are changing leadership.  This speaks volumes about Sony's lack in confidence in its own future.  I'm not going to say someone is about to buy the company, but I'm not going to rule out the possiblity of it happening in five years if they don't become as skilled at handling their money as they are at hadling their image.  Nintendo has shipped like twelve to fifteen million Cubes right?  Sony makes claims about 50 million PS2s this generation, despite the fact that almost half of those PS2s are broken.  Yet Nintendo has turned a higher percentage of profit this generation.  Nintendo owns ninety something percent of the handheld market still and has around six billion dollars in the bank.  Who really won this generation?
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Offline Galford

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2005, 05:55:06 PM »
KDR, you sorta answered your own question.  Except the only two platforms MS has in mind are Windows and XBox.

Rising development cost is a big factor to many studios today.  Love it or hate it, MS is trying to deal with this subject head on.

Is XNA the next big thing in development systems, or is it the next .Net?

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Offline Galford

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2005, 06:23:53 PM »
Just confirmation of what I said earlier about Epic...

http://xbox.ign.com/articles/594/594673p1.html?fromint=1

The question is, will this be running the next Halo?
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Offline KDR_11k

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2005, 05:24:22 AM »
The question is, will this be running the next Halo?

Unlikely, Bungie prefers writing their own engines. Don't expect Halo 3 to look anywhere near as good, Epic has insanely skilled artists while what Bungie produces at times makes even me shake my head.

Spak-Spang: Well, this is what they look like with a mediocre artist and an older version of the engine (UT2004, that's UE2). With skilled people and that enhanced engine you'd probably get some awesome-looking stuff.

Offline Spak-Spang

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2005, 06:34:52 AM »
KDR:  Oh there is no doubt in the power of the new engine.  You can definately tell it is a step up from this generation.  What is sad, is whenever you have a step up people immediately just make more realisitic and "gritty" images.  

Games and animation just work better in a more exaggerated and less realistic design.  The more you push for realism the more disconnect there is from the characters.  I didn't think those creatures were very scary.  I also didn't think they looked real, even though they are better textured and more detailed then anything we have seen before, except in the movies.  And speaking of that, look at the movies.  The best animated movies (Pixar) still focuses on more exaggerated styles of art to represent their characters.

The next generation is going to be awesome graphically, but if all we get is really detailed stuff like that.  Oh, I will take it, but I will be disappointed.  

I think this next generation may be the first generation to ultimately realize the dream of having a fully interactive cartoon world.  In that we should be impressed.


Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2005, 12:22:39 PM »
Any thoughts relating to the industry crash from you guys following the GDC.  There were a lot of interesting things said by Iwata.  If you ask me I think Nintendo may have the krypnonite for the supercrash.
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Offline Bill Aurion

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2005, 12:48:44 PM »
I think this next generation may be the first generation to ultimately realize the dream of having a fully interactive cartoon world. In that we should be impressed.


I call that Wind Waker, and I'd love a spiritual sequel that takes it even farther...
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Offline KDR_11k

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #36 on: March 16, 2005, 05:22:42 AM »
Nemo: If you haven't read it, read the "Burning Down the House" rant session with Warren Spector, much more interesting than what Iwata said and since you didn't mention it I assume you haven't read it.

Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #37 on: March 16, 2005, 11:17:09 AM »
give me a link, i may have already read it, but i can't recall seeing anything on it on any boards or web site headlines
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Offline KDR_11k

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #38 on: March 17, 2005, 08:49:54 AM »

Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2005, 02:23:52 PM »
cool

Nintendo is the only hope in changing the direction of games.  I liked how they embraced piracy at the end.
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Offline Bill Aurion

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2005, 02:27:41 PM »
You mean embraced anti-piracy? <_<
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Offline KDR_11k

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2005, 02:21:09 AM »
Nope, these devs embraced piracy, or at least called it insignificant. Spector said he doesn't believe the pirate would have bought the game anyway, Hecker even went as far as saying he sees games as art first and foremost and wouldn't mind the complete collapse of the videogame market due to piracy if it meant the industry will be reborn to be something better.

Offline couchmonkey

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2005, 04:45:33 AM »
I used to believe that people wouldn't buy a product anyway if they were pirating it.  But that was based far too much on my own honesty.  I've come to realize that a whole lot of people out there will pirate anything and everything they can get their hands on if it's easy enough.  I have one particular friend who was playing an actual, retail CD the other day...his comment? "I bought this before CD burners were around."

I do think that to some degree, people pirate because something isn't worth the money to them.  Particularly in the PC software industry, it's hard to argue that ordinary people would be spending hundreds or thousands of dollars to buy legitimate copies of Photoshop, Flash, etc. if it wasn't possible to pirate them.  But I'm not as convinced as I once was that people only pirate stuff they wouldn't have bought anyway.
That's my opinion, not yours.
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Offline nickmitch

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2005, 01:47:53 PM »
If it's not worth buying then it's not worth pirating.
Why waste your time copying crappy EA games when there's nothing to do with them?
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Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #44 on: March 21, 2005, 11:45:37 AM »
People these days seem to play games because they have to.  It is like an addiction they can't stop and yet the addiction seems to have no reward anymore.  Gaming is dying.  I know people with tons of games, and some of those games aren't worth the time to pirate or buy in my opinion, but these people can't stop.  Even when they have bought the game, they say things like, "I have to play these games."  They feel they have to keep playing even though every mechanism for gameplay these days is nolonger exciting to anyone.  Every game these days is one form or another of a button mashing contest.  Things are way too focused on the thumbs and fingers.

I believe that the burning down the house article is correct.  Games are art and industry destroys art.  The only way for the art to return to games is for the industry model that Nintendo created to die.  
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Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #45 on: April 04, 2005, 06:37:18 PM »
Quote:
So, I've been working professionally in the games industry for over eight years now and I can tell you – we're a funny bunch of people. As a rule we don't dress that well, geek out over "unfashionable" things, spend too much money on superfluous technological gadgets and, dare I say, might look a bit funny. Every game industry veteran I know can tell you stories of "that guy" who slept in his office, never showered and smelled... um... Or about the tester that, after 30 hours of caffeine induced productivity, purposefully downed some testing department concoction for $50 of pooled change.

We're a young industry. Nobody wants to make anything second rate so we inevitably take on wildly ambitious projects. We also have some genetic inability to schedule accurately and therefore end up working massive unpaid (since most of us are salaried) overtime. Some people that went to business school take advantage of this and turn game industry workers into slave labor. And don't think I'm just talking about EA. Your industry heroes work like dogs too. Ask a Blizzard employee what their "core" hours were for the last year+ before WoW launched. Or a Bungie employee leading up to Halo shipping. And those are the lucky ones. For every studio that turned out a brilliant game, multiple other teams of equally cool people ended up wasting years of their lives working on games that never saw the light of day, came out stillborn or got pushed out early and died an ignominious screaming bug-filled death.

Don't even get me started on the core work hours for Japanese studios.

We're young and we're stupid and we work too much. But now some of us are getting older and a bit smarter. We try to plan our schedules better so as not to alienate our families. But there are a lot of people that want to work in the games industry – so if you won't do it, someone else might.

So we try to schedule better AND put out quality stuff.

The average price of making games has been escalating rapidly. Too many features have become standard (multi player, obligatory tools for player made content, matchmaking, cut-scenes, transforming donkeys, etc.), the caliber of graphics has risen (ironically, teams are getting bigger AND games are getting shorter because of how long it takes to make the higher quality art) and a myriad of other market factors. Nothing you buy from a store was made by a few people in a garage anymore. It hasn't been for years. One of my buddies was speaking to a high school class a few weeks ago about the game industry. After a few moments of disconnect, she asked the class what they thought the development cost of the last GTA game was. Most students thought it was around $500,000. She informed them that they were short about two zeros.

And some of these games make a ton of money. Most of them don't. And for the hell we go through, most of the industry doesn't pay that well. There are exceptions – some people make out very well. But let me warn you in advance – most of us don't exactly drive Ferraris. Don't get into video games for the money. Do it because you love games. If you want to make money in the industry, own the company. Create a good new IP (intellectual property) that appears in a single well received game. Then sell your company (and the IP) to a bigger company (like EA). Then leave. Don't stay – it will break your heart.

Or better yet, be a publisher.

I'm a lead game designer. And no, I don't play games all day. I play games at home in the evenings, trying not to piss off my wife because I'm spending time with my mistress (i.e. my computer) and not her. Watching me work is boring. I'm either writing something in Word, juggling columns and mathematical formulas in Excel or mocking up exciting diagrams in Visio. If I get really crazy, I might Photoshop something up to show an artist what I'm talking about. The "lead" part of my title means that I get to spend about 25%-50% of my day reviewing my team's documents and scheduling tasks so that we don't hold up the other departments. Then I sit in hours of meetings to make sure that everyone understands the design… and to learn why the programmers, artists, testers, producers and even other designers want to string-up me up this week. If I'm lucky, I have time to walk across the street and get a mocha.

At PAX this year I was a judge for their "pitch your idea for a game" sit-in. I got to break a lot of hearts by telling the audience a very sad fact – that in my 8+ years as a professional game designer, not once has any boss of mine ever asked me for an idea for a new game. Not once. Again, unless you own the company, you get assigned a project (or jump ship to another company working on a game that sounds interesting). Sure, I've helped flesh out any number of games from concept to fully realized design. And that's the hard part. Coming up with a good idea for a game is like coming up with a good idea for a novel. Everybody does that. But very few people have the discipline to sit down and write the book. The ideas are easy – the execution of the idea is the hard part.

The burnout factor is high. Like writing a book, there are a lot of people that half way though a project throw up their hands, burn their computer, shave their dog and trek off to outer Siberia to live the rest of their lives as hermits.

So, to summarize, we're a young industry full of pale, egotistical people that dream up ambitious games, work impossible hours and sometimes smell a bit funny.

God do I love it.  

end quote


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Offline darknight06

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #46 on: April 05, 2005, 06:49:53 PM »
"Do it because you love games. If you want to make money in the industry, own the company. Create a good new IP (intellectual property) that appears in a single well received game. Then sell your company (and the IP) to a bigger company (like EA). Then leave. Don't stay – it will break your heart."

This statement right here disturbs the heck out of me.  One of my aspirations for my life was to start a company of my own developing video games, but if this is really how the industry looks at things these days then crap.  Stuff like this has had me thinking twice about even attempting it and to be honest with you  I think I might be better off if I were to just produce a smaller scale game for myself and for anyone else interested.  There's no way I'm selling ANYTHING to a company like EA.  You saw what happened to Command and Conquer!
 

Offline KDR_11k

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RE: The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #47 on: April 06, 2005, 11:14:40 AM »
Nemo: Source? Who said that?

darknight: Try becoming a one-man dev team then. That's pretty much the only way you can make your ideas reality these days.

Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #48 on: April 07, 2005, 09:42:49 PM »
Geoff Zatkin news post at Penny-Arcade (interesting insight)

that is what the title of the topic read.

http://forums.modojo.com/showthread.php?t=125165
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Offline nemo_83

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RE:The Great Crash of 05: Part Deux
« Reply #49 on: April 18, 2005, 07:19:28 AM »
i am shamelessly bumbing this because i have edited the first post to include the following which supports my point (i did not want to create an entirely new topic so i just stuck it here)


http://www.thehollywoodreporter.com/thr/columns/video_games_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000884458

One of my favorite developers is leaving the industry. Oddworld is moving on to movies and tv. I always felt that there would one day be an Abe movie, I just did not think it would mean I would nolonger get to play Oddworld games. Read that interview. I do not know if I am allowed to post the entire piece.

"Lanning: It's an industry-wide problem. As game production costs rise, publishers want more sure bets because with rising costs come rising risks. What we see is an industry which is rapidly discouraging innovation because people don't want to take chances on more innovative types of titles."

"Lanning: Absolutely. Costs are going up, but not because the quality expectation is higher. Costs are going up because of the design of the next-generation hardware. The code that just one guy used to write on the Xbox is now going to take five guys. It's as if the movie camera that you started shooting with 10 years ago has improved some features and now you need 12 people to operate it instead of one."

"Lanning: Which has always been part of the plan. And the reason why today seems to be the right time is that game technology is now moving in an opposite paradigm. Video game systems aren't being designed to be conducive to development, creativity, or content. They're being designed to be cheaper for manufacturing. If movie cameras were made that way, you'd have a rebellion in Hollywood. But this isn't Hollywood and it isn't a movie camera; it's a videogame system and the public wants basically a $1,000 box but only wants to pay $150 for it. I'm not saying that anyone is guilty in this process, but this is the reality of the current climate for development in video games and where it's headed. And because the costs are higher, more ownership needs to be seen on behalf of the publishers and, quite frankly, I don't blame them. They can say, "Look I used to pay for video games when they were $6 million, but now they're $16 million. And you know what? My shareholders are not going to like it if I fund your game, it's a big hit, and then you take it to someone else. That's going to hurt my stock. We need to see a path to ownership or ownership right out of the gate.""  
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