I think all the talk about Nintendo's "demise" or potential extinction comes from a vast misunderstanding of success, a blatant ignoring of Nintendo's actual profits, and a ridiculous and oft-talked about disconnect between the mainstream and Nintendo.
I mean, I've said it before and I'll never stop saying it: some opinions are wrong (even mine! hahaha). So many people have NO IDEA how successful Nintendo is nor how much money they have in store. What is it? Something like $9 billion? I know I've read this before, but let's say I'm wrong--people still have these skewed concepts of what it means to be successful. Little do they know that Sony and Microsoft are busting their butts to pull a profit, to my knowledge, while Nintendo, from most any account, is almost literally swimming in wealth. Third parties are even complaining that people with GCN's are essentially buying only Nintendo's games! I'm sorry, but if these people expect this to be a slam to Nintendo, they don't realize that it reflects worst on THEM! Make better games, Third Parties! If I'm dead wrong on something here, please, please let me know, but I'm faily confident that losing third parties is bad but not a sign of a Nintendo ship sinking.
If Sega pulls their sports lineup after a game sells 20,000 copies, well, logically, Nintendo isn't going to miss them much since neither they nor Sega were benefitting from the games (well, Nintendo will make money off it, either way, eh?). The only way it does matter, the way I see it, is it turns off potential buyers in the casual mass market who buy two or three games a year and any or all of them start with NCAA or Tiger Woods.
Oh, another thing just struck me. If everyone and their brother, sister, cousin, next-door neighbor, preacher, rabbi, priest, shaman has the PS2 and an updated copy of Madden and NFL2K EVERY YEAR, why in god's name WOULD the GCN versions sell all that well? It seems ever so slightly logical to me that oversaturation would in fact slow the sales of the same exact games on other systems. These games are EVERYWHERE, and in times where three HUGH JAZZ companies are fighting, more people have more than one system than ever before. I will say that with confidence even though I haven't the figures to back it up.
Let me just restate that losing third parties, any time, is bad. One can't deny this. But people have to stop exaggerating, you know? Let's change their minds.