It will probably sell one or two hundred thousand copies. That's my prediction. You will probably be shocked how well it sells, because you are basing your belief that it won't sell on consumers being informed, and I think you are underestimating just how ignorant people can be. EA is preying off this ignorance and going to profit from it. There are literally millions of people out there who owned a Wii but not a PS360 this last generation. These people have never heard of Mass Effect, so when they move over to the Wii U and see this game available they might want to check it out.
You don't need to convince me that a large portion of people out there buying consoles are uninformed and borderline stupid.
Something has to account for all those Wiis sold, after all.
(yes, that was a joke based on commonly-traded stereotypes. Shut up.)
The thing is, the very people you say are uninformed
also don't care about Mass Effect or games like it, which is one of the reasons why I think the Wii U will be
at best a modest success (and will probably need a substantial price cut to accomplish
that) rather than the hardware sales juggernaut the Wii was. The "uninformed" have their Just Dances or New Super Mario Bros. retreads, and they seem content with that. There has just been no evidence of growth within that market beyond those "safe" titles. So ME3 sells 100,000 copies at launch, and then they don't buy anything else EA/Bioware puts out. Yeah, that was worth it, wasn't it?