Hell, what I'm really interested in is what Japan will look like in a few years once this new gen of handhelds have gotten to really grow roots. Console gaming is already a ghost of it's former self (in Japan) and handheld games sell over there like Call of Duty here. With graphical and feature fidelity almost at the same parity as the current gen of consoles, I don't see how the next gen of consoles will ever supplant handhelds in that country once they arrive (unless it's like VR or something) and I see that trend spreading world wide as well.
I'm not saying consoles will disappear or anything, but there will come a time when there will be more handheld devices that play games on par with current gen software in circulation than there are consoles.
Awesome post, and it brought up something I haven't even thought about before (and Probably deserves it's own thread, as to not derail this one) but what if consoles did become obsolete in Japan? We know Nintendo is first and foremost a Japanese company and they cater to them first, the rest of the world is like an after thought. Suppose one day the release a console that flops only because the Japanese market would rather stick with their newest portable device, which is comparable to the console. How would that affect the rest of us?
I can't imagine them not releasing a console here (in the US) and expecting everyone to adopt to console-less gaming. Mass transit isn't as prevalent here and because of it you cut down on a big portion of people who would play a handheld on a bus/train ride as a casual pastime, vs someone who plays anywhere because gaming is a serious hobby. The later being someone who might actually only play his/her handheld at home, where they could just as easily play a console game. I know personally, I don't ever really take my DS out of the house because there are never any opportunities to get a quick game in. I wake up, drive 45 mins to work, spend half my day running around a hospital, the other half in my office in front of a computer screen, another 45 mins home and when I do have free time, I'm either relaxing at home where I might get a Wii session in, or out with my girlfriend or friends. There never seems to be an appropriate time for me to whip out a my DS and play. When there are, like say arriving to the theater early and the movie you want to see won't start for an hour and you don't have anywhere to go, sure I could sit in the lobby and play but that'd just be rude to the people I'm with. Where it stands, is portable gaming ends up being a conscious effort on my part, and because the home setting is the only place I seem to be able to enjoy a handheld game, the console triumphs every time because I'm honestly more comfortable sitting in front of my tv either in a chair, a sofa or bed than fumbling with the handheld.
With that said, and going back to my original point, what if Nintendo tried to go a portable only route? Would that fly with their audience outside Japan at all? Personally, I feel that it wouldn't unless the right steps were taking to accommodate those like Ian and myself who prefer the console experience over the handheld one, from a comfort perspective. If you gave me a handheld as powerful as whatever the most current console equivalent was, and gave it some sort of tv-out, that'd be the best of both worlds because I'd have the portable console that I could play like a console when I want it to, with games comparable to a console anyway.
The only problem I'd foresee with this would be the gameplay experience. The PSP approach would work because (until the NGP) games on the handheld didn't differ all that much from the console version, control wise. If we took Nintendo's current systems (and I'm counting the 3DS as current) this dual approach wouldn't really work because our current handheld and console play pretty differently. If Nintendo never went with motion controls for their console, maybe such a transition would be feasible, but where it stands.. not so much. Perhaps in a world where Nintendo were only focused on one dual-gaming device (ie console-to-portable) they could easily translate touch to motion controls in games, but even still.. depending on the game, the actual feel wouldn't translate the same. Take Goldeneye 007 (Wii), which I'm currently playing and loving, I haven't played the DS version but I'm assuming it controls like other FPS games on the system, and it doesn't feel as intuitive as the Wii version. This is ultimately the biggest problem, from a company that always claims to value gameplay over anything else.
Still, I'm actually waiting for a day like this because, personally, I feel it could only grow my gaming habit. Where as currently my budget leans towards console game purchases over handheld, because I play them more, a scenario where the games were all one in the same would lead to more of my money going to Nintendo in the long run. While I'll hold onto this wish for a dual gaming device, I know that realistically there are too many hurdles to over come before something like this becomes a reality (which can be discussed in another topic if anyone wishes, since this post has gotten way too long).