Topic: Wii Successor and Glassess Free 3D: How Will It Work?

[BlackNMild2k1]

Riddle me this, Batman, why do so many of the biggest games and most new hardware launches happen before the holiday season? Why did Nintendo's shares drop and investors groan when Nintendo announced 3DS was missing the holiday season?

3DS will sell out at launch regardless of what time of the year it is. Investors groaned at missing the Xmas season because Xmas season is the biggest shopping season of the year and they want to see a return on investment now and later, not just later and... laterer.

I see no issues with 3DS first holiday coinciding with the Wii2 launch other than Nintendo feeling the time period too packed with NEW system advertisements, but I also don't see why a post Xmas early 2012 launch would be off the books either if the 3DS launch is a success. You get a 9 month headstart heading into the holidays to build up hype, straighten out supply issues and get past the craptacular launch games. If it works for 3DS, I don't see why Nintendo would have an issue trying it out for Wii2 if that's the way the cards needed to be played.

[Adrock]

To establish a relatively large userbase from the outset.

Sigh. "As I've already said, Nintendo competes with itself everyday. Consumers are capable of buying both and have been doing so for the past 4 years." Wii 2 launching the same year wouldn't affect 3DS at all for the reason stated above.

*rhetorical questions + awesome Batman reference*

3DS will sell out at launch regardless of what time of the year it is. Investors groaned at missing the Xmas season because Xmas season is the biggest shopping season of the year and they want to see a return on investment now and later, not just later and... laterer.

Obvi.

I see no issues with 3DS first holiday coinciding with the Wii2 launch other than Nintendo feeling the time period too packed with NEW system advertisements, but I also don't see why a post Xmas early 2012 launch would be off the books either if the 3DS launch is a success. You get a 9 month headstart heading into the holidays to build up hype, straighten out supply issues and get past the craptacular launch games. If it works for 3DS, I don't see why Nintendo would have an issue trying it out for Wii2 if that's the way the cards needed to be played.

I agree though I wouldn't use 3DS as a measure of how Wii 2 may fair. The DS brand is a beast that rapes and murders everything unfortunate enough to be in its path. The Wii isn't quite the indestructible force of nature.

Anyway, I never said Nintendo absolutely must launch Wii 2 Q4 2011. In fact, my exact words were: Nintendo isn't in some dire need of meeting a Q4 2011 launch. They can afford to miss it and, in fact, should if the lineup is weak and the supply is egregiously low. However, I doubt Nintendo wants to miss next holiday season for obvious reasons and they'll avoid it if they can. There are more benefits to launching in late 2011 than anytime in 2012.

[Mop it up]

The DS got a two-year head start though so it wasn't taking nearly as much away from the Wii as it could have if they launched in the same year. I doubt anyone bought a Wii and DS in one store trip.

[NWR_insanolord]

Even if Nintendo wanted to launch holiday 2011, I don't think they could hit that target. At this point last year Nintendo was most likely aiming for holiday 2010 launches for the 3DS and Zelda, and didn't hit either of them. That means they're already stretched thin and behind schedule. Also, for a late 2011 launch, there would have to be devkits out in the wild by now, and even though Nintendo's pretty good at keeping the lid on things, I would think we'd have heard something about that from somewhere.

[MaryJane]

@Ian
So because NBA Jam is no longer exclusive 3rd party support is dead?? What about Goldeneye? What about Just Dance? What about the fact that EA blatantly shows people using a Wiimote for BOTH of it's vitality sensor games? And since E3 is in June and none of us are industry insiders, how do you know what is planned for 2011 concerning 3rd party support?

The 3DS is coming out when it is because the PSP2 is coming out for the 2011 holiday season. Nintendo probably aimed for 2010 holiday just to get a full year's head start, but 9-10 months is still good. Did you notice how soon after the 3DS 'leak' and reveal that Sony starts letting info about the PSP2 come out? These guys know what each other are doing for the most part. The PSP has been getting some good games recrently that sometimes propel past the DS for sales, and the PSP2 is going to be a technological monster, and according to a Sony interview is almost certainly going to be a game playing tablet, which will expand it's market to people who also are looking to get a tablet. Even the new Nook from Barnes & Noble is going to be a tablet/eReader, that is where the industry is heading, and Nintendo needs space between the 3DS and PSP2 so that people can report that the 3D aspect not only works, but is practical enough to be the reason for buying the system.

The Wii2 is going to have some feature unique feature that the competition won't have. The N64 had analog, the GC had power (before the Xbox came out) and size/possible portability and the Wii had it's controller. Unlike Sony and MS Nintendo doesn't just simply release more powerful hardware, so it's foolish to assume that the Wii2 won't have so a feature that draws people to it and away from the competition.

Sony and MS would be hard pressed to release new console sooner than 2013. Improving the graphics would mean taking them to movie CGI levels, and similarly taking game development budgets to near movie levels as someone suggested before.

[BlackNMild2k1]

So now Nintendo is releasing the 3DS as a reactionary move to the PSP2 and not because even their own developers have felt that they have done all they can with the DS and would like some more powerful hardware with new capabilities to allow them to create the games that they want to continue to make.

and by saying that the 3DS is reactionary to the PSP2, that would also mean that the PSP2 is infact the system to beat and therefore dictates when the competition should be ready to play catch up.

Nintendo doesn't give a damn about the PSP2 just like they didn't really give a damn about the PSP. I think the only favor the PSP did for us Nintendo fans, was get Nintendo to redesign that ugly ducking DSPhat into the much sleeker DSLite, but other than that I don't think Nintendo was all that worried about what was going on with the PSP. If anything the PSP2 is happy that the 3DS isn't being delayed into the next holiday season since I doubt Sony wants to go head to head with the 3DS launch and would rather get that launch frenzy over with long before PSP2 hits shelves.

Any I know you've seen the dev prototype of the PSP2(assuming that the leaked pics are as legit as the leaked PS3slim pics were) so we all know that PSP2 is not a tablet. That's not to say that there might not be a tablet version in the future, but from what we seen, that is not what they are trying to bring to market first.

[Ian Sane]

@Ian
So because NBA Jam is no longer exclusive 3rd party support is dead?? What about Goldeneye? What about Just Dance? What about the fact that EA blatantly shows people using a Wiimote for BOTH of it's vitality sensor games? And since E3 is in June and none of us are industry insiders, how do you know what is planned for 2011 concerning 3rd party support?

Third party support on the Wii has ALWAYS been dead.  It has never ever been even remotely close to what I would consider acceptable.  The third party offerings on the Wii is just pitiful compared to that of the PS3 and Xbox 360.  That isn't going to change.  The time for it to change was like a year into the Wii's life.  The assumption was that no one expected the Wii to be a success so that had nothing ready, but the games would come once they had time to make them.  But there was never a switch over.  EA, Activision and Ubisoft are the only companies that really give us ANYTHING and it's usually junk.  EA and Ubisoft have both bitched about the "Wii audience" not buying their games.  Activision is the lone exception but they've always been supportive of multi-platform releases with the Wii, giving us Guitar Hero and Call of Duty.  Nothing has changed and nothing indicates a potential change.  NBA Jam on the Wii has sold like piss and that likely has a lot to do with the fact that EA changed it from an exclusive to being the worst entry in a multiplatform release.  And they'll surely bitch about it.  I'm using it as an example of the second class treatment the Wii gets.  I don't have to be an industry insider to guess that things are going to stay, at best, exactly the same when nothing has happened that would change third parties' minds about the Wii.  Why would they suddenly decide to embrace the Wii after shitting on it this whole time?
 
I guess it depends on what one thinks about the third party support right now.  I personally think that 2010 was a sparse year for the Wii and that the sparse release schedule has put the Wii on borrowed time.
 
Regarding the 3DS and Wii 2 being released in the same year I really don't think the GBA cut into Gamecube sales back when they both launched in the same year.  I don't think it will matter.  Hell, the Wii 2 launch will likely sell out anyway just from sales from Nintendo fans alone.  And the two systems are going to co-exist so realistically they could always eat into each other's sales.  That's something Nintendo has to risk, just like they risked it in the past.  If they launch them around the same time then they could give any connectivity between the two a big push, particularly if they can demonstrate the feature early on.  I think the 3DS also has the potential to take attention away from the current Wii.  I think glasses free 3D will create a frenzy similar to that of the Wii when it launched.  Wii owners will be exposed to the 3DS which will make the Wii look very weak in comparison since it will be a console with worse graphics than its portable sister product.  But if Wii 2 hype is building up at the same time I think that will keep momentum going for the Wii "brand".
 
I think the most important thing is that the Wii does not become irrelevant in the minds of the consumer until the Wii 2 is firmly in their minds.  Regardless of what timeframe you feel the Wii 2 should launch in, we can probably all agree that it is important that the transition be smooth without any dip in Wii popularity.

[MaryJane]

I didn't say that the 3DS is a reaction to the PSP2 but rather that the release is.

And just because the PSP2 doesn't look like the iPad, doesn't mean it isn't a tablet. I would reference the Samsung Galaxy Tab and the Dell Streak for that point.

Nintendo has to care about PSP2 because despite the DS's phenomenal sales the PSP still steals exclusives away from it. And, like I said, the PSP has been catching up in monthly sales, and more importantly(?) game sales.

Also, the dev kit isn't the final design so it may yet get a larger screen, and with how much power it purportedly has, why not give it a full OS? The 3DS has some meager form of an OS with its power, and even if the PSP2 isn't really a tablet and more of an MID, Sony will still market it as a tablet, then people will say its a tablet, and it will effectively be a tablet, because perception is everything.

Also, even if Nintendo doesn't see the PSP/2 as competition developers do.

[Kytim89]

Could this be any indication of how Nintendo could move 15 million units?
 
http://www.1up.com/news/mario-anniversary-model-quadrupules-wii
 
Is the Wii phenomina over?
 
http://www.infendo.com/is-the-wii-phenomenon-finally-over/
 
I would argue that the only reason the Xbox 360 has out sold the Wii is because everyone and their uncle is ditching the older 360 for the slim model and this will eventually fizzle out. I mean I would buy a 360 slim if the 3DS were not sp close to being released.

[King of Twitch]

http://www.1up.com/news/mario-anniversary-model-quadrupules-wii

Wow. If Nintendo wants to revive Japanese sales they should just call the next system the Nintendo 1985, because that's all these people care about apparently

[TJ Spyke]

Ian, GBA and GCN did not launch in the same year. GBA first released in March 2000 (June 2000 in North America), GCN first launched in September 2001 (November 2001 in North America).

[NWR_insanolord]

The GBA came out in June 2001 in North America.

[Ian Sane]

The Wii used to be impossible to find in stores for like two straight years.  So, yeah, in comparison to that the Wii phenomenon is over.  But that kind of frenzy was never going to sustain.  Things were going to die off once everyone who wanted a Wii had one.

[Kytim89]

I would not call Wii third party support dead, but on critical life support. I mean I really liked some of the third party games that have cone out on Wii. I loved both No More Heroes games, Red Steel 2 was fun and Monster Hunter 3 was fantastic. Most of the games that I own are third party and the quality of the games are by no means a slouch. The Wii 2 must turn the third party support in a 360 direction (pun intended : : ).

[BlackNMild2k1]

http://www.1up.com/news/mario-anniversary-model-quadrupules-wii

Wow. If Nintendo wants to revive Japanese sales they should just call the next system the Nintendo 1985, because that's all these people care about apparently

We could come to that conclusion if we ignore that it was also the release of long awaited color of Red that could have been the largest contributing factor.

[Kytim89]

Before the 3DS was announced, I was going to purchase a black Wii and transfer over my data, but now I a going to waith and buy the black 3DS and possibly a black Wii 2 (with a matte finish).

[King of Twitch]

http://www.1up.com/news/mario-anniversary-model-quadrupules-wii

Wow. If Nintendo wants to revive Japanese sales they should just call the next system the Nintendo 1985, because that's all these people care about apparently

We could come to that conclusion if we ignore that it was also the release of long awaited color of Red that could have been the largest contributing factor.

Fine. Nintendo Red 1985. Now are you happy

[Mop it up]

It isn't about years, anything with the Mario name will sell. They should name their next system "The Mario" or perhaps "Marwiio."

[King of Twitch]

Alright alright geez.. The Nintendo Red Mario Brothers 1985 system. They should make it in the shape of a hat with the disc popping out of the glowing 'M'

[Sarail]

Don't you mean "cartridge"?

[Kytim89]

If the Wii is going to have a cartridge slot, then the games need to be about the size of a Gamecube or PS2 memory card to avoid being lost easily. What signifcance would returning to carts have for the Wii 2?
 
 

[Spak-Spang]

That is silly.  Size of games doesn't matter at home.  You aren't moving them or traveling the them...so you shouldn't lose them.  I am not convinced that people want cards though, because disks are cheaper.  However, I must say I like the idea, that a card could have the ability to save game files on the card, so you can take your save with you to your friends house...that is an important missing part in the disk game era.


I do not think 3rd party support is dead, just ignorant.  They treat Nintendo differently, because they got their tainted glasses.  They haven't seen Nintendo growing or expanding for years...they assume Nintendo can only be kiddie, casual, non-gamer.  They see what sells initially on the system and copy it...instead of being original.  When they are original, they don't market it, advertise it, or push it at all...and then it sells bad, and they say  Oops.  Nintendo can't sell traditional games.  Some companies understand that is not true.  Some companies understand it first must be a quality product they believe in...then advertise it...but unfortunately not enough do. 

There will be good Wii games that come out...and developers that take the time to make great Wii games can be rewarded greatly.  That said, Nintendo did not do a good job enticing 3rd party developers to make games for their system.  The online structure, power, and controller were hard to get around.

[Adrock]

I detest load times. I don't care if it's only a few seconds. Cards > Discs

Dead, ignorant... whatever. Inconsequential. Besides a few games here and there, support has been awful.

[Kytim89]

Dino Crisis 4 in HD would make a good launch title for the Wii 2. But I can not shake this feeling that third parties are going to shove their PS360 games onto the system for the early party of its launch. I mean here is a list of launch titles that could come out for the Wii 2:
 
Conduit 3
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Red Steel 3
Punch-out 2
No More Heroes 3
Wii Sports 2 (with judo, kick boxing and karate)
Sin and Punishment 3
New Super Mario Brothers 3
Star Fox (Armada) in HD
(Eternal Darkness 2)?
 
A new sci-fi FPS developed by Retro Studios andmarketed to be Nintendo's Halo killer.
 
Also, MMOs should be made available for the system and Monster Hunter Frontier should be the first on the list. Lastly, Retro should begin to develop MMOs of their own for Nintendo to compete with Sony and Microsoft.
 
Retro's MMOs should include the following:
 
Medieval Final Fantasy/Fable-esque game.
Cyberpunk MMO
Space opera MMO
 

[NWR_insanolord]

So you want Retro to make 3 MMOs and a Halo killer? In addition to being terrible ideas, it wouldn't be possible for one team to do all of them.