Topic: Why June will kick Sony's ass (speculation)

[Ian Sane]

"The simplicity of the Rev hardware means that manufacturing it should NOT be a problem when Nintendo decides to. The easy development structure, along with the known GC-identical programming feel means that Nintendo should've started preliminary work on launch titles as far back as E3 2005. The easy development structure means that games that should've taken 12 months should only take 9. (Keep in mind, Rogue Leader was developed in 9 months) The no-learning-curve development means third parties, experts at current gen dev, should be capable of pulling that sort of schedule too."

Well Nintendo did make a big deal about the Cube being easy to develop for but Super Mario Sunshine didn't make launch and there was a big post-launch drought and most early third party games were REALLY rushed ports of PS2 games.

One thing people bring up is that since the hardware is so similar to the Cube that devs are already familiar with it.  That makes sense in theory but who honestly is that familiar with Cube hardware?  Nintendo obviously is and Capcom is but most third parties released nothing but multiplatform ports.  How familiar are they with Cube hardware if all they ever did was take games originally made for the PS2 (lowest common denominator) or Xbox (most powerful) and ported them to the Cube?  If you asked those devs to make effective use of the Cube hardware would they be able to do a good job?  The Cube is capable of games like Resident Evil 4 but most third party games don't come even close to that level.

Now most of the really good third parties made at least one exclusive for the Cube so it's not like this is an issue with the really good stuff.  But third parties like EA and Ubisoft never really gave the Cube much attention in the first place.  Those third parties might need more time and finished dev kits.

"For example, Majora's Mask was said to 'save time' by using the OoT engine. Yet it still came out...what, 2 years AFTER OoT?!?! Look, it's cool that you shaved 6 months off the dev time, but it was too little, too late."

Two years between sequels is pretty damn good.

[Kairon]

Well, even if you don't think 3rd parties have excellence in GC development, they at least don't need to "re-learn" all the quirks and can get to a jogging, if not running, start.

Also Ian, the reason I bring up MM's use of OoTs engine but 2 year dev cycle is that, sure, you got another game out a little faster. But following the OoT model, you could've had a 2.5 year dev cycle and a completey new engine and thus a more exciting game. It was a phyrric victory, yay for old engines and 2 year dev cycles. Still, my point is that MM was too little too late, they needed more efficient development sooner rather than later so that they can build and maintain a momentum at launch, not later on when people's views on the console are already formed.

I'm saying I'd be disappointed if the benefits of this "cheaper, easier to develop" revolution only become evident in mid or late 2007 instead of now, when, if it exists, it would be the most help.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Darkheart]

Quote
but who honestly is that familiar with Cube hardware

Nintendo
Capcom
Ea
SquareEnix
Camelot
Namco
Sega
Ubisoft

That is plenty of developers to produce something.  Plus honestly I see Zelda making a summer game, and Rev close in the fall.

[MaryJane]

I hope they launch it on Aug. 13 that's my b-day and I wouldn't have to pay for it.

June seems too early, November is too late, but no matter when the Rev comes out PS3 will be strong. Their philosophy was, we want people to think, that no matter what the price I have to have it, and from what I'm hearing around the watering hole, campus, and my job, they seem to have achieved their goal. The Rev may take away some people but the PS3 will launch strong, unless some major flaw becomes apparent, but by that time it will alrdy launched strong. I hope the PS3 sinks under it's own considerable weight and the Rev brings Nintendo back to the glory days of old, but the launch isn't what's going to do it. It will be time.  

[jasonditz]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane

One thing people bring up is that since the hardware is so similar to the Cube that devs are already familiar with it.  That makes sense in theory but who honestly is that familiar with Cube hardware?  Nintendo obviously is and Capcom is but most third parties released nothing but multiplatform ports.  How familiar are they with Cube hardware if all they ever did was take games originally made for the PS2 (lowest common denominator) or Xbox (most powerful) and ported them to the Cube?  If you asked those devs to make effective use of the Cube hardware would they be able to do a good job?  The Cube is capable of games like Resident Evil 4 but most third party games don't come even close to that level.
.

Don't forget Sega and Namco, both had ample opportunity to get familiar with the hardware.

And you could launch in 2009 and EA would still give you garbage ports.

[IceCold]

Kairon: I don't know.. you can say whatever you want about cheap and efficient programming, but the fact is still that an excellent game needs time. Well, the big games, anyway. I know you said that all they need for launch is a few small-budget titles with little depth. But that wouldn't make me happy at all. Those titles have their niche, but if the launch only contained games like that and the rest came during the window, I wouldn't be impressed at all. Yes, launches always sell out, but early adopters are loyal Nintendo fans, and they obviously wouldn't feel good about that situation. I think they should have at least two deep titles right at launch to give us something to chew on.

I want the Rev to launch around Canadian Thanksgiving - October 9th.

[trip1eX]

Yeah Zelda:TP in the fall equals REv in the fall ( at least in the US.)

"Nintendo marketing chief Reggie Fils-Aime appeared on Spike TV's Game Head program yesterday and said that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess would be released at some point in the fall of 2006 and would be a GameCube title ....."  

[BigJim]

I know that Matt C. is often a target of abuse (deserved or not) but in the latest IGN podcast, he made mention to knowing of uncharacteristically "cool" games in the works for Revolution, made from the ground up. If such games exist, and there's no real reason to not to believe him, I'll be a much happier camper.

If they could prepare "cool" games and launch at a shocking price point, they'd have my money pretty quickly.

But I'd be stunned if the launch were any sooner than November.

[Kairon]

Hmm... well, if Reggie went and said Zelda TP will launch in the fall 2006, then I can't see the Rev launching before it then. Technically a September launch but... Well, there goes that theory. Darn.

This makes me wonder exactly WHAT Nintendo has cooking behind closed doors and what their development cycle is like in the very-experimental launch period, also when they pinned down general hardware goals and let their software teams work with that in mind.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[capamerica]

If Apple can do it why can't Nintendo?

Apple has done this time and time again where at a Keynote Steve Jobs will say "And One more thing.." and announce some new product that start shipping next week or even that day. Why can't Nintendo do the same thing?

Sure you could always argue that we would know something cause the developers would have leaked it out, But you have to ask yourself, IF the developers could leak that kind of info out don't you think they would have leaked out more info about the Revolution ingeneral. Look at what happen with the controller, No one leaked a word about that out.

I remember hearing that back in December the Revolution went into production. It was never confirmed or denied but if it was indeed true then Nintendo could make a June release.

If anyone could pull it off I think Nintendo could.
And it would scare the hell out of Sony and MS cause it will happen out of no where.

[Kairon]

But then it doesn't make sense to release Zelda: TP in the fall... Unless they actually intend to delay Zelda : TP beyond the Rev launch for ...I don't know what possible reason they could trudge up. A hole in their Rev release schedule? The Christmas season?!?! *shrug*

I've just about lost hope that an early launch could happen since Zelda:TP is slated to come out so late.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[BigJim]

Sega tried it with their surprise Saturn launch. Good for headlines and on paper, not so great in practice. Apple's product announcements don't necessarily need additional software from other vendors like consoles do. "Viola" surprises are a lot easier in that world.

Nintendo wouldn't hold onto 6 months of product inventory. There are all kinds of cost issues that'd go with that.

[jasonditz]

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
Sega tried it with their surprise Saturn launch. Good for headlines and on paper, not so great in practice. Apple's product announcements don't necessarily need additional software from other vendors like consoles do. "Viola" surprises are a lot easier in that world.

Nintendo is not silly enough to hold onto 6 months of product inventory. There are all kinds of cost issues that go with that.

The Saturn had a lot of other problems so it might not be a fair test of if it can work in this market.

Apple's got a better infrastructure for this sort of thing though: they have their own stores all over the place and a very well put together e-store. Almost every Apple user has bought something directly from Apple at one time or another... Nintendo users are used to getting their products from the retailer of their choice.

Then again, it wouldn't be a complete surprise... we know the system is coming... we just don't know when. Saying "oh, and by the way, they'll be in stores next month" seems like plenty of time for the logistics problems to be sorted out, provided they've got enough systems made and enough games ready for launch.

[BigJim]

You're right, but the big "if" there is the product supply and games.  Not to mention actually having completed hardware to be able to make the supply. For us to get it at the same time or before developers get final kits doesn't sound even nearly likely even if it were possible.

Didn't Nintendo specifically say November, anyway? Or was that somebody else? The Spong is sh!t either way.  

[wandering]

Quote
Sure you could always argue that we would know something cause the developers would have leaked it out, But you have to ask yourself, IF the developers could leak that kind of info out don't you think they would have leaked out more info about the Revolution ingeneral. Look at what happen with the controller, No one leaked a word about that out.

My perception has been they've been very, very careful with who they shared controller information with prior to TGS (Unlike with the StarCube controller...which was leaked to ign well before it's official unveiling) Alot of devs seemed surprised at the controller unveiling at TGS.

In comparison, it's hard to hide information when thousands of dev kits are involved. I'm pretty sure we know final dev kits won't be out until June.

More to the point, would a surprise launch really be a good thing? Nintendo wants to build hype, remember. They've said they're planning on slowly releasing more and more information from E3 until launch. Launching early could give Sony a chance to take over the hype train in time for the holidays.

[Ian Sane]

I question what advantage a suprise launch would have.  Who buys consoles at launch?  Usually it's the hardcores who would buy it no matter what.  A surprise launch isn't really going to attract a huge amount of sales.  The people that would have bought it later in the year would just buy it now.  The head start isn't bad but if the result of it was a lousy first impression as a result of rushed games that could end up being worse.  The Saturn's surprise launch had a lot of problems like stores not carrying it and third parties not being ready.  But one big problem was that because it launched early the initial games suffered.  Daytona USA was only one player.  Virtua Fighter apparently didn't turn out quite as good as people expected either.  Sega ended up releasing special edition versions of both games later on.  The first impression was poor and much of that was due to the surprise launch.

I initially had the idea that Nintendo should release the Rev as quickly as possible to avoid being the last ones.  But I don't think Sony is going to be launching anytime soon and Nintendo should be able to beat them to the market without rushing.

[The Omen]

The benefit of the surprise launch is it immediately becomes a very buzz-worthy product.  It breaks monotonous expectations...gamers will freak about it, believe me.  Besides, even if only the hardcore bought it, you're still getting that extra 5-6 months to basically recruit unabashed.

[Requiem of Darcness]

Well it the worldwide launch of the Revolution is going to take place in a 14 week span. Why not have a June launch in Japan, a August launch in the US, and a September launch in Europe? The Japanese seem to be accustomed to launches with thin software selection. The extra couple of months would allow 3rd parties to get their launch titles ready. The PS3 isn't going to see launch in Europe until Spring 2007 at the earliers, launching the Rev in Europe in September would give it a half a year head start over the PS3. This would allow the Revolution to get a significant head start over PS3 in all territories. That would allow gamers to experience the controller and other innovative features.

[wandering]

Quote
The extra couple of months would allow 3rd parties to get their launch titles ready.

How would Japanese third parties be any readier for a June launch?

[Spak-Spang]

The Surprise launch means that those who will buy it first will like you said, the hardcores...but that also leaves a couple of months for word of mouth and regular gamers to play the system and experience the Revolution without comparing it both Xbox 360 and Playstation 3.  That is obviously a huge advantage.  

I also don't think Japan is the best market to launch the system in.  As mentioned before Japan is going to buy this new device no matter what.  The whole concept is tailor made for them, and it will compete quite well against Sony.  

So the earliest launch should go to America where Nintendo will have the hardest time competing.  This will give Nintendo a headstart in proving their ideas without 2 competing systems.

Remember some gamers just hate MS and won't buy the Xbox360, they are waiting for Sony or Nintendo.  Others, just can't afford the price entry right now.  (We know Xbox360 will get a small price reduction when Sony's system hits the street) so launching cheaper and earlier makes your system look like the best deal.

[Rhoq]

A surprise launch would only be beneficial if game development has been completed. I doubt anyone out there, including Nintendo, has anything ready to "go gold". At E3, Reggie could pull a Steve Jobs maneuver and announce that Revolution is available for purchase "today" through Nintendo's on-line store and units will begin shipping in 3 to 4 weeks. Retailers should be receiving stock before the end of June - but that's doubtful.

I would rather Revolution be held back until November to allow developers ample time to complete and polish their projects so we have a decent selection of titles to chose from at launch (is Nov2006 too soon?). I don't want to have to wait 6 or 7 months after the Revoltion is released for quality games to start coming out, like we did with the DS.

[Ian Sane]

"I also don't think Japan is the best market to launch the system in. As mentioned before Japan is going to buy this new device no matter what. The whole concept is tailor made for them, and it will compete quite well against Sony."

Launching in America first didn't result in a very good DS launch.  Nintendo is a Japanese company and Japan is their focus.  If they launch in America first their Japanese devs might not consider it a high priority and then won't have their games ready in time.  It's clear with the DS that NOA said "we have to launch now" and NCL did not plan for it because pretty much none of the games were ready.  Plus if they launch first in America then there's probably going to be more American launch games and, well, the non-Japanese third parties that support Nintendo are pretty crappy.  I would prefer more Japanese games at launch which I think would require the Japanese launch to be first.

It would probably be okay if NCL planned for it ahead of time and could make sure that their first party games were ready.  But if NOA just decides to launch earlier it's going to be a weak launch.

[RiskyChris]

Ninty will release in America first if it means any other alternative would cause the American release to be delayed past Thanksgiving.

[Kairon]

Even though the DS american launch wasn't that hot, I think it proved to be an overall good business decision that helped the DS weather the PSP's challenge.

Still, if Zelda is slated for a Fall North American release, then I can't possibly see how the Rev can launch before it. Zelda:TP is released either with or before the Rev. There's still the possibility of a Summer Japanese launch with Zelda:TP there, but the North American launch will happen in the fall, probably in line with how long Zelda:TP takes to translate.

Oh, and it was also good of someone to point out that in Japan, the XBox360 doesn't exist. If the Rev beats the PS3 to market there, it will be as if they launched first overall.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com  

[Ian Sane]

"Even though the DS american launch wasn't that hot, I think it proved to be an overall good business decision that helped the DS weather the PSP's challenge."

I don't think the same scenario applies to the Rev.  The Rev is following a last place console.  The DS was following one of the most popular videogame systems ever made.  The DS could have launched with nothing but the Metroid demo and it probably would have sold just because of the association with the Gameboy.  Plus the DS launched with no competition.  In the US the Rev's first competitor is already in stores.  I honestly believe the Rev would get absolutely creamed if it launched with a lineup that horrible.  Like within a year it would be in clearance bins.  The DS launch didn't sell the concept and didn't even have any new games from Nintendo.