Topic: Pachter: Apple will have a game console soon

[KDR_11k]

1. Pachter is wrong. That's a universal truth of the universe. You have to get him drunk or off-guard to get him to say anything useful (like how the PSP Go is a rip-off).
2. Apple doesn't have a chance. The iPhone can afford its shitty gaming library because it's not primarily a gaming device but the culture of "it must be 1$ or I'm waiting for a sale!" that the App Store has created makes quality games a rarity as nobody can afford to spend much on a single game. Revenues are tiny and profits even smaller.
3. They'd need a killer app. A game that makes people buy the system. Who'd put in the effort to make a killer app that sells for 1$ a copy (and nets even less after Apple takes its share) if not Apple itself? Except Apple does not have the skills for making a killer app.
4. The pricing climate benefits Apple and nobody else. Apple gets to sell hardware at a good markup and then make money on its share of all iTunes sales, the developers don't get much money out of it. An app store game is considered a huge success if it sells 3 million copies at 1$ each and these successes are rare.

Chozo: How in the world could Apple convince Disney that there's not much money to be made by releasing their games on Nintendo's systems?

"Apple" and "reasonably inexpensive" shouldn't be used in the same sentence, unless you're talking about apples from a produce market or grocery store.

Yeah, they sell apples for 1 - 1.30€ a kg at the local market here. Really good quality as well.

[NWR_insanolord]

Remember how much money Microsoft spent launching the Xbox brand? They're making money now, but they lost billions early on. Steve Jobs wouldn't want anything to do with that; he'd rather stick to things that are profitable from the start. Add to that the fact that he's never been a fan of gaming (the Pippen came out during the period between Jobs being forced out and his triumphant return, when the company was run by a series of incompetent morons who nearly bankrupted it) and you'll see there's virtually no chance Apple will enter this market. 

[SixthAngel]

Fast forward to the SNES/Genesis era on up to the N64/PS1 and here you find a market that is a good deal larger which can now actually support two competitors at a time instead of one. Now we are at a point where the market is even larger and its capable of supporting three competitors simultaneously.

Haven't both MS and Sony lost money like its going out of style this generation?  I know MS, like Insanolord said, actually started to have some quarters of profit last year but that doesn't say anything about actually making money overall.  Have they made a net gain on just the 360 yet? I heard Sony lost all their profits from their previous generations too.  That doesn't count money that probably gets pushed off into other divisions for both companies either.  How is this three successful competitors?  Its more like one successful and two on chemo, hoping they manage to beat the odds.

[BlackNMild2k1]

People are forgetting that Apple just recently (re)launched a platform that does gaming. Apple branding or not, AppleTV  didn't do so good.

Could they tweak that to be more gaming friendly? Sure, and they could make it so that every iPhone/Pod Touch is the controller for the thing, but it still wouldn't see any real gaming support (Mac are just now getting actual games and they've been asking for them for a long ass time).


And MS is no where near posing a profit on the Xbox brand, they've barely covered that $1Billion they set aside for repairs and now they are spending 100's of millions more on Kinect. They won't be profiting off the Xbox money pit for a looong ass time unless they find some Nintendo like success from Kinect and moving into the Xbox720.
-=These are from February (forums stopped loading for me), but they make the point just fine:
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/forums/index.php?topic=18481.msg582963#msg582963
($1.1Billion isn't listed because it was buried in a different <read: profittable> department during a department reshuffling and renaming)

As far as Sony is concerned, Playstation brand is still profitable, but they have pissed away any profits since the launch of the PS2 in 2000. They've pissed away everythign the PS2 has done for them($$wise) with the PS3. All they sit on now are the profits from the PS1 era. of over a decade ago.

[Adrock]

Don't they own Pixar or something?

No. Disney acquired Pixar in 2006.

But this is the thing.  Do they need to offer anything new?

Yes. They have to offer something that the competition doesn't have, even if it's a killer app. Microsoft lucked out by investing in Bungie. Without Halo, there is no Xbox. And, as others have said, MS took major losses to get where they are today which is something Steve Jobs will NOT do, under any circumstances. That's why, for example, the iPhone 4 sells for over triple what it costs to manufacture. If you think Apple can sell a console based on name recognition alone, I'm sorry, sir, but you are sorely mistaken. Apple dominates 1 market: portable media players (or 2 if you count tablets as its own market... I don't). The iPhone is a popular smartphone, but it hardly has the market cornered. If we lived in Denis Dyack's one console future, yeah, Apple would probably do very well. Apple fans would just pick up their Apple console, even if it cost $100-$200 more and had a glowing Apple logo, and play Super Mario Galaxy 2 or God of War 3. But, we don't and there's no reason to believe Apple could release a console and dominate just because Mac fans and iPod fans stick to Apple products.

[Chozo Ghost]

Could they tweak that to be more gaming friendly? Sure, and they could make it so that every iPhone/Pod Touch is the controller for the thing, but it still wouldn't see any real gaming support (Mac are just now getting actual games and they've been asking for them for a long ass time).

To be fair, it was only recently that the Mac switched from the PowerPC processor over to Intel. I think that has a lot to do with the improvement in Mac gaming, because now that the Mac is using the same processors as PCs are that makes it easier for developers to port their games over, right? Another reason is that the PowerPC was rather limited in its performance, with it never managing to go over 3ghz. It just couldn't handle many modern games even if the developers wanted to support it. So only of the major hurdles that kept the Mac behind for many years has finally been lifted.

Honestly, I hope the Mac becomes very successful in time and whittles away Windows market share. A monopoly is never a good thing for any industry and MS has been dominating computers for far too long and have destroyed many companies along the way (Netscape, etc.) So if the Mac succeeds in a big way that would be a great thing for everyone, but for that to happen I think Macs need to become more affordable. People don't want to pay $2000 for computers anymore, especially in this economy.

[Chozo Ghost]

Apple has a very long experience with making a computer that was in a distant second to the PC for several decades now. If they made a console that was in fourth place, I'm sure they could use their Mac experience to make it profitable no matter how low its market share is. Remember how Nintendo was in third place last gen with the GC yet they were also somehow the most profitable company despite being 3rd? That's the sort of success we might see from an Apple console as well.

Mac computers aren't owned by everyone, but there is a niche for them which is strong and insanely loyal. This means the Mac computer will never die no matter how little market share it has. An Apple console with a GC level of success would be the same way.

[TJ Spyke]

Don't they own Pixar or something?

Apple's connection to Pixar is that Steve Jobs started it after being kicked out of Apple Computer (before anyone corrects me, I know it technically started as part of Lucasfilm, but Jobs ought it in 1986 and re-named it and made it become a production company).

[King of Twitch]

So the pros are:
-Can turn a profit and innovate
-Unlimited kool-aid refills
-Seeing them go head to head with MS would be at least entertaining
-Lots of "secret weapon" potential (built-in Pixar movies, music, whatever)

Cons:
-Lots of risk in area they have no experience in
-Hasn't yet been a successful 4-console generation
-Chip shortages?

Clearly it's happening.

[Chozo Ghost]

I think Steve Jobs is a really smart man and could pull off a successful Apple console, if that's something he really sets his mind to doing. Since he rejoined Apple the company did a 180 from being stagnant to being the powerhouse it is today. When Apple first started making MP3 players it didn't know what it was doing, but look at it now. Steve Jobs is a genius and he can get the Jobs done.

[Mop it up]

A better question is, would anyone want Apple to come out with a console? Do you want to have to buy yet another console just to get games that would have come to a system you do own if Apple hadn't bought them?

[NWR_insanolord]

I'd rather not buy another console, just like I'd rather not have had to buy the three I have now, but if it has exclusives I want to play, I'll buy it.

[BlackNMild2k1]

----------------This post is from around 1:35pm PST today (after Zap but before Chozo) --- my internet has been down
@Chozo - can you stop double posting and just edit your previous post?

and Apple can't survive as a niche 4th party when they don't have strong 1st party/exclusive game support. 3rd parties are not gonna continuously make games for the 4th place loser without some serious incentives.

[nickmitch]

I don't think Apple understands the concept of introducing a product and having to talk about it for 4+ years without redesigning it a few times. Like, Steve physically couldn't do it.

[broodwars]

I don't think Apple understands the concept of introducing a product and having to talk about it for 4+ years without redesigning it a few times. Like, Steve physically couldn't do it.

Well, the solution to that problem is quite simple: Instant Consoles!  They're out in stores before the hardware is finished!

[MaryJane]

It would be very simple for Apple to enter the videogame market. If Apple TV is even half as successful as their mobiles and they can release a dedicated motion control system with iPod/iPhone integration with graphics on par with PS3/360 before the Wii2 comes out they have a good chance at not only  being successful, but of taking Nintendo's spot in the market. People who buy Nintendo consoles for the 1st party games will stay loyal, but casual gamer who own an iThingy will not and would rather support Apple with whom they associate cutting edge technology. Google could also be making this mystery console for the exact same reasons I've listed above but with Android devices and Google TV. If Nintendo doesn't get the Wii2 out soon enough (Like E3 2011) they may have spelled their own doom by opening the blue ocean; casual gamers do not have the loyalty of the hardcore gamer, they simply go where the fun is. Which is why games on smartphones are doing so well and eating into the portable marketshare. I honestly believe Apple's, Google's, or whoever else wants to enter the console market, their success depends wholly on when Nintendo releases the Wii2 just like Sony's success was due in large part to them getting the disc based PS1 out almost a whole year before the cartridge based (old feeling) N64. If the new competitor does no physical media (think buffering; while you're downloading the game you can play the early levels while the others are being downloaded) good graphics, dedicated motion control, and releases either late '11 or early '12 they could make a serious dent in the console market.

[Chozo Ghost]

I don't think Apple understands the concept of introducing a product and having to talk about it for 4+ years without redesigning it a few times. Like, Steve physically couldn't do it.

Well, the solution to that problem is quite simple: Instant Consoles!  They're out in stores before the hardware is finished!

That's pretty much how it was with the original XBOX, where Microsoft basically just slapped together various PC components and called it a console.

[Dirk Temporo]

Wasn't Pachter the one that predicted that PS3 would "definitely" win this generation's console war?

[TheBlackCat]

I've been hearing rumors of an apple game system since at least the N64 era, so forgive me if I don't take this very seriously.

[Guitar Smasher]

Wasn't Pachter the one that predicted that PS3 would "definitely" win this generation's console war?

That was all "analysts".

Pachter's the one that would say every time that the Wii's a fad, and that the "HD version" will be coming out soon (this went on for years).  Then, when Move was announced he changed his tune and claimed that this was what he meant when he said "WiiHD coming soon!"  No BS.

And that's just one instance of several where he lost all credibility.  He's not as much a true 'analyst' as he is a 'personality', who uses any chance to market himself.

[BlackNMild2k1]