Topic: MoSys: Revolution Launching in Mid-2006

[Talon]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
Cut this "they'll steal our idea" crap.  The Xbox 360 launches this year.  They CAN'T steal the idea and odds are it's too close to launch for the PS3 to steal the idea as well.

Well realistically there technology could still be stolen.  Microsoft and Sony have until mid 2006 to develop something similar, that would be plenty of time for a peripheral (if that is what is so revolutionary) and besides Sony can just release some real pox internally developed game to allow its developers more time to produce something decent for their new peripheral. This all depends on how different Nintendo's controller really is. It didnt take long for Sony to release the dual shock controller when nintendo released an analogue controller and the rumble pak.

I think in this sense its kind of hard for Nintendo, they are damned if they do (ie Sony and microsoft could steal ideas) and they are damned if they dont (ie people will question what makes their system so revolutionary).

Oh and one other thing I might add:
"Secondly, today's news suggests that Revolution will ship well after Sony's PlayStation 3, which is rumored for a first quarter 2006 debut." matt casamassina, Revolution comming mid 2006
Take it as you will, with a grain of salt maybe. But he is suggesting Sony has pushed forward the playstation 3 release date. I have a feeling SONY is getting a little nervous that Microsoft is going to steal some of their incredibly large sunshine and maybe they are a little worried as to what Nintendo is going to bring to the table. Even though Sony and Microsoft dont see Nintendo as competition, Im sure both companies have spies trying to dig the dirt up on Nintendo's secrets.

 

[Ian Sane]

"Secondly, today's news suggests that Revolution will ship well after Sony's PlayStation 3, which is rumored for a first quarter 2006 debut."

All the more reason to show off Rev details now.  If they're already stuck launching last then they can't afford to reveal their console last as well.

[Arbok]

 "Secondly, today's news suggests that Revolution will ship well after Sony's PlayStation 3, which is rumored for a first quarter 2006 debut."

If that's true, I see that as being very good for Microsoft, considering that the technological gap between the two would likely be rather small, if there at all, as Sony is rushing their console for a earlier release date while still being shown after Xbox 360. Again, assuming that rumor is true, of course.

[jasonditz]

Since when is launching last such a big deal? The SNES did quite well as the last to market in its generation.

Honestly, I think you guys are putting way too much emphasis on launch timing and industry tradeshows.  

[stevey]

'Plus with the N64 we got the last first party game around May or June and then got nothing until the Cube launch in November. Odds are we'll get a similar drought with the Cube so if we get nothing after May anyway then they might as well move the Rev launch up for a smoother transition."
NOdon't you lisen to nintendo they are going to make game up the rev. and after because rev. can play cube games.

"All the more reason to show off Rev details now. If they're already stuck launching last then they can't afford to reveal their console last as well. " no wait till sapeworld 2005.

[Ian Sane]

"Since when is launching last such a big deal? The SNES did quite well as the last to market in its generation."

Yeah but that's the f*cking Super Nintendo, the follow up to the most market dominating console ever made.  You can't compare that to the Revolution.  Nintendo feels that giving Sony a big head start last gen really hurt them and it's important that they don't launch last and let the competition become established before them.  The problem with launching last is you have to convince people to wait and not buy the fancy new consoles from the competition.  Nintendo isn't in a position where they would be able to convince that many people to wait.  They don't have the market share or mindshare to pull that off.

[jasonditz]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
"Since when is launching last such a big deal? The SNES did quite well as the last to market in its generation."

Yeah but that's the f*cking Super Nintendo, the follow up to the most market dominating console ever made.  You can't compare that to the Revolution.  Nintendo feels that giving Sony a big head start last gen really hurt them and it's important that they don't launch last and let the competition become established before them.  The problem with launching last is you have to convince people to wait and not buy the fancy new consoles from the competition.  Nintendo isn't in a position where they would be able to convince that many people to wait.  They don't have the market share or mindshare to pull that off.

You don't have to do anything of the kind. The number of people who buy a console at launch (or even around launch) is a pretty small percentage of the overall market. Even if the Revolution waited until early 2007 to launch there are going to be plenty of potential customers who haven't bought either the PS3 or the new Xbox.

If the Revolution is all it's cracked up to be, its going to sell just fine no matter how much lead time the others have. If its just another cookie-cutter console with a couple of appealing first party launch titles, it could be launching tomorrow and its not going to help their market share.

[Talon]

Timing is very critical! Not only do you not want to let your competitors get a large head start but you have to be sure people are ready to buy your next system. Video game consoles are what is known as "disposable technology" or technology that is thrown away in a short period of time (ie 4-5 years) for something bigger and better to replace it, rather than upgrade it. That is part of the reason why you cannot access the battery in your i-pods because they are to deemed disposable technology.

So there is no point in introducing a new system very eary in the current systems life-cycle, because people wont buy it as they dont see a need to. Likewise if you let a system drag on longer than 5 years people start to think its time to get something new and if you havent released your next system they will just go straight to your competitors. I think as long as Nintendo releases revolution either before the ps3 or around the same time they should be in a nice position. If they wait too long after the ps3 is released their install base is going to shrink even further than what it currently is.

[jasonditz]

Again, that theory doesn't take into account the fact that most people don't buy their consoles anywhere near launch. More consoles are sold in the second half of a consoles life than in the first half. Surely these people that are buying Gamecubes now aren't planning to throw them away next year, whether there's a Nintendo replacement or not.

Its a lot more important how they launch than when they launch. Nintendo is at a very critical point with their consoles, and the Revolution damned well better be the best launch they've ever had. The last thing we need is to see them rush the thing to market in the name of getting there before Sony.

I'd rather see a Xmas 2006 launch with 6 first party titles and a bunch of 3rd party titles than a Spring 2006 launch with 3 first party titles and a handful of rushed 3rd party ports.

[Ian Sane]

"that theory doesn't take into account the fact that most people don't buy their consoles anywhere near launch. More consoles are sold in the second half of a consoles life than in the first half."

Okay then if Nintendo launches too late then the PS3 and 360 will reach their "second half" first.  The late adopters will be buying the competition while Nintendo is still in the early adopter period.  Plus you have to take into account games.  The later Nintendo waits the more games the competition will have.  Most people wait to buy a console because they want to wait until there's a lot of games to choose from.  If Nintendo waits too long Sony and MS will reach the "enough games" mark first.  If Nintendo waits until Christmas 2006 realistically the competition could have over 50 games to compete with the 10 or so titles Nintendo will have.

Most people buy ONE console.  There are exceptions but in general every Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 sold can be seen as a Revolution not sold.  The longer they wait the more sales Nintendo misses out on.

[jasonditz]

I'm not saying Nintendo should wait for the sake of waiting... I'm saying they shouldn't bother launching until they have "enough games".

You seem to be assuming that no matter when they launch they're going to have the exact same number of titles and they're all going to be just as good. My thoughts are: Let Sony and Microsoft race each other to market: it just makes their launch titles that much more rushed, and that much less polished.

Am I the only one who remembers just how horrible the PS2's launch titles were? That's Sony with plenty of time on their hands. What happens when they move the timetable up a bit to try to compete with Microsoft?  

[PaLaDiN]

"What happens when they move the timetable up a bit to try to compete with Microsoft?"

Their consoles get bought by the mindless masses anyway. Add forced shortages and you've got a successful launch.

[jasonditz]

And everyone who buys early winds up disappointed, just like they were about 6 months after the PS2's launch. Then either a killer app like GTA3 comes out to make everyone forget about how bad things were, or it ends up like the Sega Saturn.  

[Talon]

Quote
Sony Chief Financial Officer Takao Yuhara states
"For the year end sales season, simultaneously building up both the PlayStation Portable system in America and Europe as well as the next generation PlayStation is one option that we have."

I wish SONY would make their minds up when they are going to release the PS3!!

First it was the end of 2006, then the begining of 2006 and now they say its possible the PS3 could be released at the end of the year.

Personally I think this statement was made to take a bit of microsoft's thunder away.  But if on the odd chance SONY is ready to release their system alongside microsoft again Nintendo will be lagging 6 months behind.

It would be nice if Nintendo could conteract both statesments with something like "Well ner ner revolution is releasing at E3" o_O O_o

Back to being serious, if sony does push the ps3 release forward I hope Nintendo can do the same with revolution.

[Ian Sane]

"Back to being serious, if sony does push the ps3 release forward I hope Nintendo can do the same with revolution."

I think there would come a point where Nintendo wouldn't be able to move the date forward.  If Sony launches significantly earlier than Nintendo expected then what can they do?  If the games aren't ready they're not ready.  It's as simple as that.  I say Nintendo should stick to mid-2006 regardless of what happens give or take maybe a month tops.  If Sony moves up it's going to be at the expense of games unless it was their plan all along.  So Nintendo can concentrate on having a better lineup at launch.

The PSP came out well after the DS but has more titles available and has since its launch.  It hasn't killed off the DS but I think that's largely due to the really high price.  If Nintendo does a similiar thing, where their launch lineup beats Sony's whole lineup at that point, AND they have it at a lower price that can give them an advantage.  But they have to get the hype out now.  On Xbox 360 and PS3 launch day the Nintendo Revolution has to be in people's minds.

Of course launching before the PS3 with an awesome lineup would be better but they have to do what's realistic.  It has to be a balance between the launch date and quality of the lineup.

[BigJim]

The, uh, "sleek, 1 inch thick, DVD-playing Revolution" thread seems to have disappeared. Hope it comes back... if not, please unlock the thread in the Revolution forum.

[Talon]

It got locked because there is a news article that discusses it, its in the thread "First Revolution Details"

[BigJim]

The "First Revolution Details" thread is the one that disappeared for some reason. I was asking that if it couldn't be recovered, unlock the locked one. But now it's back...

[Spak-Spang]

Ian:  You said something important here.  You said at the launch of Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 Revolution has to be on peoples minds.

I say the best defensive for Nintendo is to keep the secrecy about the Revolution until about 1 or 2 weeks before Microsoft Xbox 360 launch.  Then suprise everyone with a partial unveiling.  Have the press play some games.  Unveil specs and the future of Nintendo, but have NDAs to prevent talking about the controller.  Allow the controller to still be secret.  IGN and Planetgamecube and such can talk if they like the controller but nothing specific.  Then if Sony launches early.  Have another unveiling of the controller perhaps around the world with Super Smash Brothers Revolution tournaments and allow the public in.  

This would cause huge media hype can excitement for Revolution, and you protected your secrets from being copied.

[Ian Sane]

Is there a particular reason for resurecting this old thread?

"I say the best defensive for Nintendo is to keep the secrecy about the Revolution until about 1 or 2 weeks before Microsoft Xbox 360 launch. Then suprise everyone with a partial unveiling. Have the press play some games. Unveil specs and the future of Nintendo, but have NDAs to prevent talking about the controller. Allow the controller to still be secret. IGN and Planetgamecube and such can talk if they like the controller but nothing specific. Then if Sony launches early. Have another unveiling of the controller perhaps around the world with Super Smash Brothers Revolution tournaments and allow the public in."

I don't think another partial unveiling is going to do it.  If people haven't seen everything regarding the Rev by the time the Xbox 360 launches a huge chunk of gamers (and a lot of Nintendo fans) are going to say "f*ck it" and buy the Xbox 360.  We need to see games planned for launch.  Without the controller Nintendo either can't show off certain games because it will blow the "secret" or we'll only get a tease of the games.  We need to see the control to see the games and we have to see games but the time the Xbox 360 launches.  The 360 launch is the point when people are going to make the decision of which console to buy.  If Nintendo hasn't given us all the facts the decision is down to MS or Sony.  Why wait for the third place company to show their stuff when the second place company is launching tomorrow?

[vudu]

In agreement with what Ian's saying, even if Nintendo did release everything a couple weeks before Xbox 360 launched, it would be too late.  People are going to have made up their minds and placed their pre-ordered way before then.  If Nintendo is going to try to out-hype Microsoft, they'll need to do it before then.