Topic: Comment: Nintendo bets the farm on finding new markets

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Gamesindustry.biz

Posting articles in full is a big no-no.

[Ian Sane]

"It's a lofty ambition, but it's also an easily misinterpreted message and an incredibly risky venture. Existing gamers don't understand what Nintendo is trying to do, and no matter how many games like Metroid Prime 2, Geist, Resident Evil 4 and Zelda the company brings to its platforms, gamers will still look aghast at titles like Nintendogs and Electroplankton - two games which Iwata chose to demonstrate on stage at GDC last week - and wonder why Nintendo is making things that don't appeal to them any more."

That's pretty much exactly how I feel regarding the DS and is my worry regarding the Revolution.  I'm worried that Nintendo is going to focus too much on this new market and not put as much effort into appealing to existing gamers.  Nintendo only releases so many games a year.  I'm interested in about 80-90% of them depending on the selection.  Now if they start going after this new market I can see myself being interested in only about 50% of their lineup depending how things go.  One common complaint with the last two Nintendo consoles is that due to weak third party support the major titles are pretty spaced out and that's assuming you like all of them which realistically not everyone is going to.  So now Nintendo will be releasing the same amount of games with less that appeal to me.  So instead of having a great game come out every two months it's every three months or four months because Electroplankton games that weren't taking up Nintendo's time before are taking up slots in the annual output.

Of course that's only a problem if the third party situaton remains the same.  Realistically if this gamble paid off and increased sales we could see more third party games to fill in the gaps.  That's the gamble because I think there's a big risk that Nintendo might spread themselves too thin by targeting two very different groups.  This is a scenario where the system could sell just as well as the Cube but still have only half the amount of Nintendo games that appeal to existing gamers.  By going with this two market approach the Rev's library of classics is always going to seem disproportionately small compared to it's sales because those titles will be split amoung too different types.  In order for the Rev to have a comparable lineup to the Cube it has to sell more than the Cube did.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Well I think Nintendo is hoping that Developers start wanting to support the REV and DS for the innovative game possibilities, that way the shift will be less noticible.

[ruby_onix]

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On the other hand, it's certainly the most logical thing for Nintendo to do right now. Mega-corporations like Microsoft and Sony are determined to duke it out for the hardcore gaming segment with budgets and backing that Nintendo can only dream of, so the company has little choice but to find - or rather, create - a new market.

I don't agree with this part. Nintendo can play with the big boys. They just don't want to.

Nintendo was the force in the industry just prior to the N64 launch, but they tripped up big with one single, serious mistake (carts). The GameCube was supposed to be the console where they got back up to speed, but they tripped up again, this time with a flood of smaller mistakes (most notably a general "lack of agression").

Rather than learning from their mistakes and taking another shot at it (which they seem more than capable of doing, practically until the end of time), Iwata seems to have thrown in the towel, admitted that Nintendo doesn't have what it takes to compete, and changed course for Nintendo. Relying entirely on Nintendo's apparent ability to surprise us.

But apparently, it's not because they can't compete, but because Iwata (like Yamauchi) thinks the world is coming to an end. Which, needless to say, most people don't buy.

It looks like Iwata turned Nintendo off the highway, and now they're bouncing along off-road at highway speeds in the dark. The entire industry is feeling a mixture of excitement and terror, wondering where the heck Iwata is going, and when Nintendo might smash into a tree.

I really don't know what crazy thing Nintendo is doing with the Revolution, but it also bugs me that I don't know if they've bothered to learn from their mistakes with the GameCube, or if they've found that "agression" they were missing before (and I don't mean "substituted it with crazy"). Setting the technology gap between the DS and PSP aside, the DS does hint towards some "agression". Most of the reasons that the DS is beating the PSP aren't what we'd expect from Nintendo, while looking at the GameCube, but there are also hints of "crazy" in the DS too. Of course, most people seem to be unaware of Nintendo's victories with the DS, or tend to be entirely dismissive of them. Which is kind of Nintendo's fault.

But, there's nothing to do but wait for history to be made, and see what Nintendo has become.

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Ironically, it's Sony that has already proved that this market exists, with products like EyeToy and SingStar, both of which have been immensely successful at attracting entirely new people to the gaming pastime. Sony, however, has the kind of market dominance that lets it experiment with this kind of expansion on the fringes of its business. Nintendo has no such thing; tapping the casual gaming market, the female market and the older demographics may not actually be "do or die" for the Kyoto based company, but it's as close as makes no odds.

Nintendo has been capable of surprises and innovation at whatever size (marketshare-wise) they have been. Even when they were trying to compete on a level playing field.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

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Rather than learning from their mistakes and taking another shot at it (which they seem more than capable of doing, practically until the end of time), Iwata seems to have thrown in the towel, admitted that Nintendo doesn't have what it takes to compete, and changed course for Nintendo. Relying entirely on Nintendo's apparent ability to surprise us.

I disagree that they are throwing in the towel, I think what they realize is that they can't go the MS and Sony route, they can't capture the hardware lead, in addition they don't want to go the hardware route, nor can they draw in leagues of third parties, not when their competitors offer more.  Instead they are competing by differentiating themselves, by giving the people something they can't get with Sony or MS, you don't have to take the same route as your opponents to win a race.

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But apparently, it's not because they can't compete, but because Iwata (like Yamauchi) thinks the world is coming to an end. Which, needless to say, most people don't buy.

No what he says is the market is reaching a point of stagnation, something which is true, graphics have reached the point of diminishing returns, we are getting the same games redone year after year and new ideas are few and far in between, the industry has to change if it wants to survive in the long run.

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It looks like Iwata turned Nintendo off the highway, and now they're bouncing along off-road at highway speeds in the dark. The entire industry is feeling a mixture of excitement and terror, wondering where the heck Iwata is going, and when Nintendo might smash into a tree.

I really don't know what crazy thing Nintendo is doing with the Revolution, but it also bugs me that I don't know if they've bothered to learn from their mistakes with the GameCube, or if they've found that "agression" they were missing before (and I don't mean "substituted it with crazy"). Setting the technology gap between the DS and PSP aside, the DS does hint towards some "agression". Most of the reasons that the DS is beating the PSP aren't what we'd expect from Nintendo, while looking at the GameCube, but there are also hints of "crazy" in the DS too. Of course, most people seem to be unaware of Nintendo's victories with the DS, or tend to be entirely dismissive of them. Which is kind of Nintendo's fault.

But, there's nothing to do but wait for history to be made, and see what Nintendo has become.

See but while you are worried about it I think its great, the last thing the market needs is three systems which basically do the same thing while two of them have more selection than the third, much better for Nintendo to go off the road and give gamers a reason to follow, by giving them something they can't get elsewhere.  Not only that but they'll draw in people who care nothing for the Playstations and Xboxes.  In the end that will lead to a nintendo victory because rather than fighting at the same table they'll have an entire table t themselves.

[Ian Sane]

"Rather than learning from their mistakes and taking another shot at it (which they seem more than capable of doing, practically until the end of time), Iwata seems to have thrown in the towel, admitted that Nintendo doesn't have what it takes to compete, and changed course for Nintendo. Relying entirely on Nintendo's apparent ability to surprise us."

Well put.  The first time Iwata said that gaming as it is can't really go any further my initial reaction was "BS.  YOU guys can't go any further or are choosing not to.  The rest of the industry is doing fine."  I think Iwata's confusing the state of the industry with the state of Nintendo.

"I really don't know what crazy thing Nintendo is doing with the Revolution, but it also bugs me that I don't know if they've bothered to learn from their mistakes with the GameCube, or if they've found that 'agression' they were missing before"

Agreed.  Not only does it bug me but the Revolution's success, even if it is in a new direction, relies on Nintendo learning from their mistakes.  Let's say the Revolution turns out to be pretty cool but all the little problems with the Cube are still there.  Third party support is lame, the memory card is puny and ridiculously overpriced, there's no demo discs, online plans are wishy-washy (though Nintendo's recent announcements suggest this issue is fixed), the controller doesn't work well with some genres, the player's choice titles are more expensive than the competition's, the component cable can only be ordered online from Nintendo, etc.  If all those stupid little goof-ups with the Cube are still there people aren't going to care about the Revolution regardless of what new features it has.  Nintendo has to be incredibly competant.  With the Cube they were stunned like they were some senile old fart who can't find his way back home from the corner store.  Even if the console has changed and the target market has changed it won't matter if Nintendo hasn't changed.  That "missing aggression" contributed to the Cube's poor performance.  If Nintendo still acts like a passive wimp then it doesn't matter what they do.  They have to learn from their mistakes... ALL of their mistakes.

Edit: New stuff to respond to.
"you don't have to take the same route as your opponents to win a race."

True but you have to arrive at the same destination.  If Nintendo turns off the highway and finds a short-cut that's great.  But if they drive off the highway and drive off a cliff that just makes things worse.  Is targeting non-gamer's merely a different route to win the race or is it entering a different race altogether?  Let's say Nintendo succeeds in attracting a new market but loses their current fanbase to the competition as a result.  That's not taking a different route.  That's quiting the current market and starting your own.  That's like a chocolate bar company becoming an energy bar company.  Sure they might be making a similar product but they're no longer competing in the chocolate bar market.  They've abandoned one race for another.

Plus there's the important factor that if Nintendo succeeded as a non-gamer console maker we could be the losers.  If they stop targeting the existing game market in our eyes they might as well of failed.  I want Nintendo the game maker not Nintendo the electronic interactive toy maker.  Why should any of us care if Nintendo is successful at targeting a different group that we're not a part of?

[Avinash_Tyagi]

See I doubt their going to alienate their base, as long as the games like Zelda, Mario, Metroid and others continue to come out why should I worry?

This is like a chocolate bar company continuing to make chocolate bars but also making energy bars, granola bars, all other kinds of bars that appeal to other segments of the market while still maintaining their current market.  Like the article states, its not only teenage males and young men that have disposable income.

[Ian Sane]

"See I doubt their going to alienate their base, as long as the games like Zelda, Mario, Metroid and others continue to come out why should I worry?"

True.  If they continue to make those games and games like them then I'll be pretty happy.  Though you're assuming those games appear as you know them.  Now keep in mind I'm presenting a worst case scenario here.  Nintendo has released numerous Mario spin-offs and is making Metroid Pinball.  What if the Rev was like an Eyetoy in that it wouldn't allow them to make those franchises as we know it?  But they still made games with that franchise.  Nintendo has been very franchise focused lately as if that's all that matters.  So, although it's a worst case scenario, I can see them releasing a Metroid game that plays nothing like a Metroid game and acting like it's the real deal.

If you're talking about franchises they're going to be around as long as Nintendo.  But the franchises aren't important.  How they play is.  So Nintendo still could go off on a tangent and still release games with Mario, Metroid, and Zelda in the title.

[ruby_onix]

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I disagree that they are throwing in the towel...

Ditto. But I think that's the image that Nintendo's putting forward every time they say that competition won't be their "main focus" anymore. It would be okay if they did this while they were ahead, but it looks like they're retreating when they say that kind of thing after (by Iwata's own admission) the GameCube failed at competing. "Oh. We screwed up? Okay, we'll put even less effort into that this time around. Why waste the energy?"

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I think what they realize is that they can't go the MS and Sony route, they can't capture the hardware lead, in addition they don't want to go the hardware route, nor can they draw in leagues of third parties, not when their competitors offer more.

I think they can, but not until they admit some things to themselves, and fix some problems that have plagued them for years. Think of it this way. If Nintendo makes a new market, then what happens? Other will horn in on it. Look at handhelds.

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No what he says is the market is reaching a point of stagnation, something which is true, graphics have reached the point of diminishing returns, we are getting the same games redone year after year and new ideas are few and far in between...

True. But a lot of people just don't see it happening, or they think that it's so far away that it isn't a problem yet. As a result, a lot of people just don't see Nintendo's reasoning. They see a retreat. They think Nintendo's backing away from confrontation, and suddenly Nintendo's got another image nightmare to go on top of their existing ones.

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See but while you are worried about it I think its great...

I'm a fence-sitter. I can't really let myself get excited until I know what to expect. I can't wholeheartedly support change for change's sake. But, Nintendo will probably clear things up with plenty of time. Just as long as they do it before the Xbox2/PS3 launches. However, the part that I'm worried about is that Nintendo may not be working on those underlying problems. They were working on them. And they still had quite a ways to go before meeting my expectations (although they could succeed with less). But then they had a major shakeup. And none of us can say that we really know Nintendo anymore.

[Don'tHate742]

All I have to add is: If anyone can do it.....it's Nintendo.  

[IceCold]

"You must know the past to understand the present, and face the future"

These are words that Nintendo should live by, as they really can't afford to make the same mistakes they did in the GCN/N64 era.

This also ties in with something Ian said that I want to discuss

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
Well put.  The first time Iwata said that gaming as it is can't really go any further my initial reaction was "BS.  YOU guys can't go any further or are choosing not to.  The rest of the industry is doing fine."  I think Iwata's confusing the state of the industry with the state of Nintendo.

It's true that right now the industry is booming. It's doing perfectly fine, HOWEVER Nintendo is looking ahead to the future. There will be a recession in the near future, where the industry will become stagnant, and it is heading in that direction quickly. In Japan, Nintendo can see that the industry is slow right now, and they are predicting that the same will happen in the North American market. But, as I said, the gaming industry is fine at the moment. As a result, Nintendo taking this road is too early by maybe a generation.

[RickPowers]

"... you don't have to take the same route as your opponents to win a race."

It's funny, because it's true ... sort of.

It's more like you've got Microsoft and Sony out there doing the Relay, laughing because Nintendo is so far behind, and Nintendo is just sort of staring incredulously, thinking, "Why are they running out that way?  The Hurdles are over here!"

[Mario]

Hahaha, well said.

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I think what they realize is that they can't go the MS and Sony route, they can't capture the hardware lead, in addition they don't want to go the hardware route, nor can they draw in leagues of third parties

Yes they can, of course they can, but they would be throwing away money.

Anyway, about a franchise comment somebody made, perhaps Nintendo do have some big new properties ready for debut, but they're saving them for the Revolution? If you had a new franchise idea right now (or even a year ago) and you were Nintendo, would you put it on the GameCube when it's already been labelled a franchise whore console and the image and userbase audience has already been set in stone? Chances are if you did it would flop (Eternal Darkness, Viewtiful Joe...).

Another thing, Nintendo aren't just going to make a game, say "oh yeah that's pretty non-gamerish" and be done with it, all games will appeal to us as gamers because.. well, they're freaking games.

Once Nintendo attract these "new gamers" wouldn't that turn them into gamers? That's the amazing thing about Nintendo, their games have the depth to appeal to anyone. A non gamer will pick up Wario Ware, play a few games, have a laugh. A gamer will pick it up and try and beat scores and unlock things. What's my point? You're all worried about nothing. Go and play Wario Ware.

[Renny]

Why do people label VJ as a GameCube failure? It's sold worse on the PS2.

[KDR_11k]

Because people choose to ignore its existence on the PS2.

[Mario]

Well i'm normally one of the people to point out it's moderate success on the GC considering what kind of game it is. It sold well (well enough to deserve a sequel, though Capcom screwed THAT up by making it multiplatform, I bet the GC version would have sold more than the GC and PS2 versions combined if it had stayed exclusive), but just not as much as probably even the lowest selling Nintendo franchise game, which was the point I was trying to make.

[couchmonkey]

....That's something that really annoys me about Nintendo fans.  Why won't some of us buy multiplatform games?  I totally understand it in the case where the games suck, but even when it comes to good games like Beyond Good & Evil, SSX3, Viewtiful Joe 2, it seems like multi-platform releases are the kiss of death for Nintendo products.  Now, I think there are other reasons for the failure of VJ2 - personally I saw it as another example of Capcom's exploitative over-sequeling, but Nintendo players need to stop ignoring good games just because they're multiplatform.

Edit: Got off topic! As for the article:
It's interesting and I like that he doesn't take an overly upbeat or pessimistic stance on the subject.  I kind of disagree when he says no number of Zeldas, Resident Evil 4s, etc. will change peoples' minds. If Nintendo could magically double it's game output and continue releasing the kind of games its fanbase already loves at the same rate along with new games aimed at the non-gamer market, not too many of us would complain.  Of course, that's not going to happen, but I also think it's safe to say that most of us old-timey Nintendo fans will find at least one or two  "non-gamer" games that appeal to us.  For my part, Nintendogs doesn't look too interesting because I have a real dog to take care of, but Jam with the Band, Pac Pix and Yoshi Touch N' Go all look very appealing to me.

[Ian Sane]

Since we're talking about VJ2's sales here I'd like to share my reason for not purchasing it.  I didn't like the first game very much.  I got it because everyone was talking about how awesome it was but, although it certainly was a cool idea and well executed, it just didn't click with me and grab my attention.  I wouldn't say it's a bad game, just not a game I really got into.  So obviously I didn't buy the sequel.  Perhaps others felt the same way.

[Spak-Spang]

I also think Viewtiful Joe was probably too hard for mainstream.  It takes a commitment that most people do not have to be able to beat that game.  

I still haven't beat the first one.  I would love to play the second one, but I will not buy another game I can't or won't want to beat.

[darknight06]

From start to finish VJ2 felt compromised.  While some of it was good, the characters and atmosphere just did not match that of the first game (the frequent occurance of that drill sargent just screams NO), Sylvia sold out, the graphics were a noticable step down in clarity (just look at the cel-shaded characters, Joe looked way cleaner in the original, especially the scarf)  and it slowed down often, probably due to being a multiplatform game.  The game was still good, but it just wasn't anything special like the first.

[ruby_onix]

Exclusivity = Attention. It's given by the game maker, and returned by the fans. The amount returned is definitely variable, since fans can be fickle. But, when you factor it in with lowered development cost and time, and of course moneyhats, it can totally be worth it.

The thing about the "Capcom 5" is that (aside from RE4) they weren't even supposed to be "great" games. Just good games.

GameCube owners were getting starved for attention by this point. The videogame industry was finally throwing us a bone. A couple of games that weren't hand-me-downs. The attention returned by GameCube fans was massive. The phrase "Capcom 5" was everywhere. Personally, I think it got a little too big, everyone's expectations were too high, and PN03 suffered for it.

But Viewtiful Joe was a better game, so it did well. Then Capcom decided to cash in on all the excitement that we had built up, smashed the Capcom 5, and ported VJ to the PS2. That was a kick in the teeth for the previously-excited GameCube owners. To make matters worse (for Capcom), PS2 owners clearly didn't care. Many of them found the offering of a live GameCube sacrifice mildly amusing on a fanboyish level, but it wasn't enough to buy their love.

Then Capcom announced VJ2, and despite the failure of VJ on the PS2, they made the PS2 version part of the formula from day-1. This was Capcom urinating on GameCube fans.

They went from having the phrase "Capcom 5" being whispered with awe and reverence, to "Capcom sucks!" without even a mild attempt to turn things around. Their only concern was "Oh crap, what's the fastest way we can ditch these Nintendo losers?"

All VJ2 on the GameCube had going for it was that it was riding VJ's coattails, with none of the positive attention that VJ had, replaced with a lot of negative attention.

Also, I thought it came out too quickly. We never even got to see any other Capcom 5 game come out between VJ and VJ2. The short timing between VJ and VJ2 was worse on the PS2, but nobody really needs to make any excuses for VJ on the PS2. That was just a massive failure all-around, and everybody seems to accept that.

[kennyb27]

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
Since we're talking about VJ2's sales here I'd like to share my reason for not purchasing it.  I didn't like the first game very much.  I got it because everyone was talking about how awesome it was but, although it certainly was a cool idea and well executed, it just didn't click with me and grab my attention.  I wouldn't say it's a bad game, just not a game I really got into.  So obviously I didn't buy the sequel.  Perhaps others felt the same way.

My thoughts exactly.  Thanks for saving me from typing that, Ian.

[trip1eX]

I think NIntendo recognizes it has to go other directions.  It's the small fish in the pond here.  MS has $40 bil more in the bank and it's Windows Monopoly pours billions more into their stockpile every quarter.  Nintendo can't compete directly with MS.  Same with Sony.  Sony is a bigger fish with more resources.  

I like that Nintendo goes different directions but why don't they try and go some new directions with some American style games.  If Nintendo's new controller has a trackball or touchpad it would be great for fps games.  It could really win over some hardcore American fps gamers to their console.  Nintendo should take 3 genres popular with Americans and work on some games in those genres.  And do it without Mario and co.  Nintendo games have better gameplay than any other games I've played.  Just that the avg. gamer doesn't see it cause it has Mario on it etc.  ONe less Mario Party game, one less Kirby game, etc and put some resources into some more realistic looking games.   They could even invent some new genres but do it without the cutesy look.  Do a game in the corporate office workplace.  Do a game with CSI depts in it.   You don't even have to necessarily make them violent.  You could make a cop game with lots of strange criminals not just thugs and murderers.  

Nintendo needs to be like Reggie said and be an 'and' company.  Keep their core intact but expand into some other horizons and notjust  into I LOVE HALO 2 and grandma land.

[KDR_11k]

Mario Party is already outsourced and not taking up any of Nintendo's ressources.