I'm gonna go in a different direction.
Plain and simple, I've looked it over, and I can't come to any other terms about this. I targeted Silenced on Day 2, and yesterday, after Despicable died as a mafia member, but one of the goons and not the godfather, I found I could only conceive of one player being mafia.
Here's our list:
Apdude
Ceric
JRLibrarian
NWR_Insanolord
Oohhboy
Shyguy
Thatguy
Toruresu
Everyone one of those players aside from one seems to use rational decisions of some sort when making hits. Except for one. Even in this game, this player has already shown he didn't have a method to his choosing when he was elected to make the first hit. I believe Ceric is the godfather.
Why? Which other player would hit Dasmos, of all people? Yesterday, I had the same hunch, and went privately with it to Toruresu. He chose to pick my second choice of stevey, though I don't know if I influenced that. Since he didn't go after Ceric, and we're out of time, I thought I'd come out and say it in the thread. I suspect only because of the events of the first day: Sundoulos was chosen for absolutely no reason at all, and Dasmos, a player that would benefit the mafia to survive, given he barely makes it online most of the time, and would even have likely died the next day, given what we knew. To me, it looks like someone chose both targets randomly, and I recall from the last game that Ceric was pretty prone to using an RNG to pick action results.
Anyway, I'm basing this idea almost solely on that, and given the current townie leader didn't listen last night, I'm going to be selfish and go ahead and vote thatguy.
If someone else really seems to agree with my line of thought but really wants to make the hit for some reason, maybe I'll sway my vote, but it isn't likely.