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« on: June 10, 2007, 05:56:29 PM »
In Japan, most certainly.
In America and Europe? Who knows?
The thing with predicting 3rd party support for Nintendo platforms is that most people don't take into account the fact that 3rd party games just don't sell. Yes, a lot of 3rd party games are horrible on the Wii, but even good ones like Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz don't sell that high, and that's the epitomy of the Wii's audience. The biggest 3rd party success story on the Wii is Rayman: Raving Rabbids, and even that didn't have anything near the sales of Wii Play + Wii Remote.
3rd parties are going to look at the hardware sales, surely, but the fact is that Nintendo's consumers, for the most part, don't give a crap about 3rd party titles, regardless of titles. And the non-gamers who are just buying the Wii for the novelty of Wii Sports are even less likely to look at releases than the average Halo or Grand Theft Auto user, so reaching them would take tons of marketing money, negating the lower development costs. Contrast that to the 360, which has a very high attach ratio and where 3rd party games sell great routinely, and you're not going to see Wii 3rd party support skyrocket beyond this holiday's attempt to exploit the spike in sales.
And then there's the question of Wii's staying power. The Wii is no doubt blowing the doors off the hinges right now, but will it continue to sell this well in a full year? In two years? The 360 isn't running full-speed, but it's settled into a consistant, somewhat reliable ~200,000 a month, with a 1,000,000 unit month all but assured when Halo 3 comes out (just like what happened with Gears of War last year). The 360 is just the most profitable current-gen platform for 3rd parties who want to move on from the PS2.