Sony will be FINE, though lose market share.You know, I think people are underestimating Sony. They'll come out fine.
1. They are a major multi-faceted corporation, with some of Hollywood in their pocket, or at least behind Blu-Ray.
2. The install base for the PS2 - which launched at a high price as well - is astounding. The PS3 is directly for that market.
3. Sony's a juggernaut advertiser.
4. Sony's console is more 'typical' - which means more movie to game adaptations, by a long shot. (Godfather + Wii-mote =
)
5. Nintendo isn't known for realism in its games, nor will it be this generation - PS3 / XBox have this down.
6. The technology behind the good games - hitting a year after launch (read: LucasArts) is
phenominal Actually, lets talk about that quick: take a look at the LucasArts demo, with the PS3 powering new physics and AI enginges. For them, it was just a quick demo, showing the end of canned animations and the beginning of immersive, realistic environments. Apply it to any genre:
Fighting games with real-time muscle movements and realistic body reactions... (Bushido Blade becoming true-life, Fight Night reacting truly, no more juggling in Tekken)
Games with cars that crash / drive with perfect phsyics (Grand Theft Auto realtime accurate car damage, Gran Turismo control like we've never seen, explosions in Twisted Metal having nothing to do with a life bar, and everything to do with the car's mechanics)
FPS / Adventure games that have no scripted movements for enemies, only AI reactions (Bond missions would never be the same, enemies moving around)
And the big one for North America: Sports. Say goodbye to canned animations at EA in two years. Motion capture will only be a base for new sports games. A game of Madden will look like an NFL game, at least in physics. And the PS3 is capable of monitoring bone density in hockey players; combined with the weight, speed and angle, we've got an accurate injury simulator.
You get the point. Nintendo can't hope to have this kind of play. Control is great, but on the PS3, my hockey / football games aren't going to look like video games anymore.