I don't have the math on numbers, but....
We gonna ditch D-Lo and leverage that Top3-4 pick we got, and Giannis may take a haircut, and the Warriors will eat the Luxury Tax, and Chase Center ticket prices will skyrocket about 350% above what they are today and everything will be right again.
The numbers are not on the Warriors' side. Not impossible, just improbable. This season, the NBA apron is $138,928,000. The Warriors' total salary this year is $138,818,443. Once a team is over the apron, they're hit with a bunch of restrictions like a reduced MLE/mini-MLE, ineligible for bi-annual exception, ineligible for sign-and-trade etc. If a team is under the apron and does any of the apron restrictions that puts them over the apron, they're hard-capped for the remainder of the season. I'm just putting this out there for reference. You know the Warriors would have to make some moves. My point is being so far over the cap makes doing anything extremely difficult.
The projected salary cap for 2021-2022 is $125,000,000, may go up/down depending on revenue. Here are the Warriors' notable salaries right now for that year (may go up/down depending on the exact salary cap because I believe max contracts are based on percentage of the salary cap):
- Steph Curry: $45,780,966
- Klay Thompson: $37,980,720
- D'Angelo Russell: $30,013,500
- Draymond Green: $24,026,712
Even if the Warriors declined all team options that summer, their total salary would be ~$147,000,000 plus the salary of this summer's lottery pick (~$138,000,000 would be tied up in the aforementioned four players) which is probably between the luxury tax line and the apron. To be able to offer a max contract in the summer of 2021 for a seven to nine year veteran (~$38,000,000) like Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Warriors would have to trade any combination of TWO of those four players (and clear the decks of smaller salaries on the books). Other teams would know what the Warriors have to do and will make them pay to do it. Again, not impossible; I merely question whether they have the assets to shed two of those contracts without taking any long-term salary back.
Since we're playing with numbers, it should be noted the Warriors can conceivably keep three of the four players if the Bucks agree to a sign-and-trade. I doubt the Bucks would be interested; just noting that the math works.
- If the Warriors keep Curry, Thompson, and Green, they can offer Antetokounmpo ~$17,000,000 which ~$8,000,000 less than he's making this year if they clear all other salary.
- If the Warriors keep Thompson, Russell, and Green, they can offer Antetokounmpo ~$32,000,000, meaning he would be ~$6,000,000 below a max contract.