Topic: Next Gen Wars: Wii = heavy favorite

[Smash_Brother]

Not sure how accurate these numbers are, but check the site.

I could easily believe these numbers to be true, but I suspect they might be fabricated.

However, click on the Wii poll to vote and you'll see the predicted winner.  

[NWR_pap64]

This was already discussed in another thread. Also, those numbers actually dropped in the last couple of days. Originally, they had the Wii at 700,000 units, but then dropped to 400,000 + units.

[Smash_Brother]

The Wii hasn't even seen a Japanese launch yet and it's easily killing the PS3's launch in both territories.

It'll be interesting to see what these numbers do on Dec 2nd and 10th...

[NWR_pap64]

Being a much cheaper console, having better games and having far more units at launch may have helped the Wii a tad...

[Zach]

pap is right.  The Wii has to be ahead simply because there just aren't enough PS3s on the shelves to meet the amount of Wiis, both systems have sold out.  The true test will be to look at the numbers when you can easily go to any video game store, and pick up a wii or a PS3 no problem.  

[NWR_pap64]

Quote
Originally posted by: Zach
pap is right.  The Wii has to be ahead simply because there just aren't enough PS3s on the shelves to meet the amount of Wiis, both systems have sold out.  The true test will be to look at the numbers when you can easily go to any video game store, and pick up a wii or a PS3 no problem.

Even if there was a vast amount of PS3s at launch, the 600+ dollar price tag will have hurt it. True, the uber hardcore fanboys would gladly pay it, but that doesn't mean the rest of the world is willing to.

I still say the main reason the Wii is doing so dang well everywhere is because Sony screwed their PS3 launch BIG time. Had the PS3 been 300 dollars and been widely available rest assure the Wii would've been buried and declared dead since day one, great control scheme and all.

[segagamer12]

Yaumauchis last request to Kutaragi was that SOny let Nintendo win the next gen war this one time. Being old friends he complied.  

[couchmonkey]

More and more each day, I believe a winner is Wii

- IGN recently ran a story saying that Wii sales far outstripped Nintendo of Canada's expectations for demand.
- GameStop reports that Wii had a tie-in ratio of 3.0 vs. Sony's tie-in of 1.5 (and the reported tie-in of 0.82 for PS3 in Japan)
- DS has successfully dethroned PSP in every market, and it's not because of Final Fantasy or Halo or Grand Theft Auto - it's because of Nintendogs, Brain Training, Animal Crossing, and Mario.  All Nintendo products, mostly new.

Most of all, when I got it in my hands, I understood.  I was already excited, but having played it, I'm like, "This is 100x better than the Xbox 360 or PS3."  Okay, so I'm still biased (and I haven't even PLAYED a PS3), but I honestly feel like Wii has the potential to excite people that don't give a crap about video games or that are getting bored with current games.  Neither other system has that.  The graphics truly mean nothing, except to a marginal hardcore audience.

I really feel that Wii's success depends only on Nintendo's ability to deliver the right games.  Third party support is also really important but looking at the commitment from Ubisoft, and the Wii lineup compared to PS3, I'd say that so far things are going fairly well in that respect.

PS3's screwups...they're out there and they're bad, but the fact that Wii is selling out at opening time with way more supply than PS3 (or most other console launches) suggests that there's more than just Sony's mistakes at work here.

[KDR_11k]

Old friends? More like "Hey Kutaragi, nice company you got there! I heard accidents happen to companies that stay the market leader for too long, know what I mean?".

[NWR_pap64]

Forgive my ignorance...But what does "tie in ratio" mean?

[couchmonkey]

Number of games sold per unit of hardware.  So if you buy a Gamestation 256 and 2 games, your tie in ratio is 2.0.

[NWR_pap64]

Quote
Originally posted by: couchmonkey
Number of games sold per unit of hardware.  So if you buy a Gamestation 256 and 2 games, your tie in ratio is 2.0.

Ah...So that means for everyone Wii console sold, they picked up 3 games as well.

I wonder if they are counting bundles?

[31 Flavas]

Well, "tie in ratio" is an average... so either everyone bought exactly 3 games with their system or some people bought more. I'm sure the bundles are counted as well, but EB/GS were not allocated as my units as say Target, WalMart, BestBuy, Circuit City, and such were. So i'd have to imagine amoung the non-bundled systems more then 3 games were perchased by more then a few people.

I can anecdotally atest to this. I personally bought 4 games, my friend bought 5 with his system, other people in the checkout line were buying 3 and 4 games. Some were just only buying Zelda, too.

[Edfishy]

Quote
I'm like, "This is 100x better than the Xbox 360 or PS3." Okay, so I'm still biased (and I haven't even PLAYED a PS3), but I honestly feel like Wii has the potential to excite people that don't give a crap about video games or that are getting bored with current games.

I have played the PS3 at several of the different stores, and I can honestly say I am unimpressed.  Textures and polygons are pretty, hi-def is pretty, but the gameplay is unchanged, the horrible coding is the same, and the totally underused Cell processor is left to just make more of the same-old-same-old.

Some third party will have to really impress me with the supposively technilogically superior machine before I'd be even remotely interested in even buying the thing used from someone.

One thing I must note though, I've hardly seen anyone even taking a glance at the Wii kiosks (which simply show a repeating video explaining the Wii, etc) while the PS3 has regular activity, suprisingly from people over the age of 30.  Nintendo's really got to get some interactivity with their store kiosks.

[IceCold]

Quote
I still say the main reason the Wii is doing so dang well everywhere is because Sony screwed their PS3 launch BIG time. Had the PS3 been 300 dollars and been widely available rest assure the Wii would've been buried and declared dead since day one, great control scheme and all.

Hardly. The Wii's success is almost entirely Nintendo's doing; you really have to give them more credit. They made some tough decisions that were criticised at the time, but in hindsight they were brilliant moves. When the controller was revealed, everyone collectively scratched their heads, and quite a few people jumped on the "doomed" bandwagon. I myself didn't know what the hell Nintendo was thinking. Looking back, though, this is the thing that saved the Wii. Another traditional console would be futile - this controller changed everything. At E3, you saw the response to the Wii - people waited 5 hours and ran past the PS3 demo units for a chance to play it. This was most definitely NOT due to the PS3's screwups. Nintendo has built hype perfectly, has poured a lot of love into the console, and has lead the way, all the way.

The Wii would still have been the smash hit that it is regardless of what happened to the PS3. Nintendo showed its confidence by launching after the PS3. Don't give me this "they couldn't get a PS3 so they settled for a Wii" stuff - the amount of people who did that is minimal.

[NWR_pap64]

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold

Quote
I still say the main reason the Wii is doing so dang well everywhere is because Sony screwed their PS3 launch BIG time. Had the PS3 been 300 dollars and been widely available rest assure the Wii would've been buried and declared dead since day one, great control scheme and all.

Hardly. The Wii's success is almost entirely Nintendo's doing; you really have to give them more credit. They made some tough decisions that were criticised at the time, but in hindsight they were brilliant moves. When the controller was revealed, everyone collectively scratched their heads, and quite a few people jumped on the "doomed" bandwagon. I myself didn't know what the hell Nintendo was thinking. Looking back, though, this is the thing that saved the Wii. Another traditional console would be futile - this controller changed everything. At E3, you saw the response to the Wii - people waited 5 hours and ran past the PS3 demo units for a chance to play it. This was most definitely NOT due to the PS3's screwups. Nintendo has built hype perfectly, has poured a lot of love into the console, and has lead the way, all the way.

The Wii would still have been the smash hit that it is regardless of what happened to the PS3. Nintendo showed its confidence by launching after the PS3. Don't give me this "they couldn't get a PS3 so they settled for a Wii" stuff - the amount of people who did that is minimal.

Oh yeah, I won't deny that Nintendo did MANY great things with the Wii and its games. But there's no denying that Sony screwing up helped them a bit. Think of the Next gen war as a big Nascar race. Sony blew a tire up and crashed, leaving it a long time at the pit, giving Nintendo and MS to rev it up and catch up.

Also, considering how biased the media is people WOULD'VE declared the Wii dead because of how "outdated" it is. Like I said, since Sony got a lot of bad publicity it just made the Wii look infinitely better.

[MaryJane]

Unfortunately you're all deluding yourselves. If the PS3 had launched with 1 million units nobody would be talking about how well the Wii is selling (except on these forums of course) now I believe the PS3 isn't as good as people make it out to be. The graphics are exceptional, although below what Sony was touting, but guess what? Most people don't know what Sony was touting, all they know is, hey this is much better than PS2, and let's think about this. If your casual gamer was satisfied with PS2 and multi-platform games, they'll be even more satisfied buying a PS3 and multi-platform games, people judge by history, and as far as they're concerned, the PS2 was good, and thus the PS3 is better, so they're going to buy, maybe after a price drop, but they will buy it.

For the Wii to win it needs to come out with 10 killer apps before Sony can get 1mil units into peoples homes, which frankly isn't going to happen. Red Steel was supposed to be one of those, and while I enjoy the game, we all know it fell short. Granted this is only firstgen software, but Nintendo has a lot to make for with the lack of success of it's past two consoles. They also still have to overcome the overwhelming feeling from the general population that they only make childrens games, and Zelda.

I think the Wii can win, but it'll take much more than Nintendo doing everything right, it will take Sony simultaneously doing everything wrong. And while both are off to a good start in this hypothetical situation, Sony has the money to make everything right again, which is the only reason games are still made for the (getting slowly better) ailing PSP. If you keep shoving something down people's throat enough eventually they'll learn to love it. Like the Helsinki complex where people identify and even come to depend on their kidnappers.

What I've come to realize in talking to people who computer gamers who own an xbox, casual gamers, non gamers, and 1 PS fanboy, is that people see the Wii as a fun system, but basically a Gamecube with a better controller(which is originally what the Wii-mote was designed for) but all the hype is towards the PS3. Say what you will about Sony but they know how to market, none of the people I spoke about actually know how the Cell processor works, but their excited about it nonetheless, the fact that it produces amazing visuals is enough.

What I think people need to realize is that most gamers are ignorant people, at least in the realm of video games, all they care about is the product, how the product came to be, what it can do, it's future prospects, and development issues are completely meaningless to them. IF this weren't true, the Wii would be golden. It is Sad but True the Wii will do well, and then next-gen (hopefully) Nintendo is going to start opening it's floorboards to take out all the money they made from the DS and (already) profitable Wii, and take an initial loss with it's next console which will be able to visually compete with the comeptition.

However I feel as though if Nintendo, doesn't make visuals a priority next-gen (since they already have a great controller and philosophy) they'll be doomed to mediocrity, because both Microsoft and Sony are hear to stay, and I think it is always going to be about rankings. Who's number 1, and so on. Nintendo's loyal fanbase and inovation, along with Sony, and MS's money and determination will make it so. at least IMHO.

Wii2 FTW!

[MarioAllStar]

Sure, Sony will eventually lower the price of the PS3, but how much damage will have been done already? Currently, the PS3 is at a rediculously high price point (in my opinion) and in short supply. The supply issues may be resolved soon, but I do not see a price drop in the near future. There are just too many people who either can not afford the PS3 or feel that the technology is not worth hundreds more than the Xbox 360. If the PS3 has poor sales or a small userbase, then loss of 3rd party support will occur. Loss of 3rd party support often leads to even less sales, and before you know it Sony is not so powerful in the console market anymore. If you think it could not happen, look at Nintendo during the PlayStation/N64 era.

Edit: I hope Nintendo never sells consoles at a loss. I have no formal education in business or economics, but that just seems like bad business all around. Besides, if Wii is a huge success, that will only confirm Nintendo's philosophy that technological horsepower does not mean a better gaming experience. If that idea works for them, why upend the tea table next generation?  

[NWR_pap64]

Not to mention, despite the Sony name and the wide range of features the PSP flopped big time. Everyone said that the DS wouldn't stand a chance because once Sony entered the handheld market they would eat Nintendo alive. But the high price point, weak games and useless features brought its downfall and by comparison, the DS was fun, approachable and affordable.

So far, the PS3 is falling on the same traps the PSP fell for; a very high price point, weak games and useless features. Time will tell if lightning will hit the same tree twice, but it proves that Sony did NOT learn anything from the PSP launch, while Nintendo is learning from its mistakes and taking cue from the DS, which is a hit.

[MaryJane]

Quote
Originally posted by: MarioAllStar
Sure, Sony will eventually lower the price of the PS3, but how much damage will have been done already? Currently, the PS3 is at a rediculously high price point (in my opinion) and in short supply. The supply issues may be resolved soon, but I do not see a price drop in the near future. There are just too many people who either can not afford the PS3 or feel that the technology is not worth hundreds more than the Xbox 360. If the PS3 has poor sales or a small userbase, then loss of 3rd party support will occur. Loss of 3rd party support often leads to even less sales, and before you know it Sony is not so powerful in the console market anymore. If you think it could not happen, look at Nintendo during the PlayStation/N64 era.


Edit: I hope Nintendo never sells consoles at a loss. I have no formal education in business or economics, but that just seems like bad business all around. Besides, if Wii is a huge success, that will only confirm Nintendo's philosophy that technological horsepower does not mean a better gaming experience. If that idea works for them, why upend the tea table next generation?

I would agree with you if the system didn't sell out or go for thousands on ebay. I don't know where you live but over in the North East price doesn't seem to be an issue. Only availability, look at the launch lines, the desire, and i already mentioned ebay, people are willing to kill for this thing, let alone pay $600 for it. Price is an issue to a many yes, but the same holds true for many things, so what do people do? They save up. If something is important, or they feel it is groundbreaking, they feel the experience will justify the price (I study psychology). These things will hold true for most people I believe, then in a year when the price drops, AND availability is no longer an issue, AND the games have gotten better, then we will be able to tell who the real victor is. Because they will both be on even ground generally speaking. I love my Wii, and I want it to be successful, but let's be logical.

And as for your edit, all consoles (unless I'm mistaken), with the exception of the Wii have been sold at a loss to begin with. Generally speaking the high cost of (mid as opposed to mass) production and new technology defeats attempts to sell the console for a profit. Nintendo accomplished this by saving on graphical power. I believe even the DS was originally sold for a loss, I also believe that the GC was two years into it's life cycle before it turned a profit. I stand to be corrected on any of this, but as far as I know it is true. If the Wii is a success it will mean they made a good console, graphics matter, but they aren't the end all of videogames, but it's the first thing you see. Saying graphics don't matter is like saying that being good looking doesn't matter.(I know you didn't say graphics don't matter, I'm just making a point) Sure you might be able to win a girl over with your personality but she has to give you a chance first, and if you're butt ugly (like me ) she might not give you that chance. Same with graphics and gameplay. How many people have trophy wives, or on the flipside go out with jerk-offs because they're good looking? First impressions are important no? Looks matter, although they aren't everything.

EDIT: The PSP hasn't flopped, it just isn't selling as well as the DS. People are still buying them, they're just waiting for the games to catch up, and with things like GTA: Vice City, SOCOM, and others, I can only see it as doing better. Sure the DS is trouncing it, but that doesn't mean its dead. If these arguments sound familiar it's because many of us made them when the PS2 was trouncing the GC. Useless features? How many of the ports on the bottom of the GC were used? 2. one for the gameboy player, and the other for the broadband adapter. How many games supported this broadband adapter?? I don't know, because I can only think of one. Sony has a lot of push, and while the DS will always be better than it, you can sure as hell expect a PSP2, or would it be PS2P? whatever the case it isn't dead, it's going to be like the GameGear, hang around for awhile causing rifts within the handheld community then die when Nintendo releases a DS (please God let this come true) that plays GC discs, and the current cartrdiges.
   

[NWR_pap64]

Quote
Originally posted by: MaryJane
I would agree with you if the system didn't sell out or go for thousands on ebay. I don't know where you live buy over in the North East price doesn't seem to be an issue. Only availability, look at the launch lines, the desire, and i already mentioned ebay, people are willing to kill for this thing, let alone pay $600 for it. Price is an issue to a many yes, but the same holds true for many things, so what do people do? They save up. If something is important, or they feel it is groundbreaking, they feel the experience will be justify the price. (sorry I study psychology) These things will hold true for most people I believe, then in a year when the price drops, AND availability is no longer an issue, AND the games have gotten better, then we will be able to tell who the real victor is. Because they will both be on even ground generally speaking. I love my Wii, and I want it to be successful, but let's be logical.

But MJ, that logic can also be applied to the PSP.

The PSP was HEAVILY desired by many while the DS was tossed around as nothing more than a cute gimmick. The PSP was really hyped as the handheld that was more than a handheld. It could do vastly more than the DS could ever do in its lifetime. It had a killer bundle at launch and the support was good. But in the end, it lost to the DS and its simple lineup of games. Why? Because it was cheaper and more fun.

True, you can say "But the handheld war is different from the console war and in that area Sony is king etc. etc. etc.", but many of the principles seen there can be applied here too. Hell, even Nintendo has said that when developing the Wii they were taking cues from the DS.

Like I said, it remains to be seen if lightning strikes the same tree twice, but so far the Wii is doing better than the PS3, hype and all.

And in case you missed my 2007 titles thread there are many titles that have potential to be killer APPs and absolute must owns, along with solid third party support. If Nintendo keeps the solid titles available, as well as constant shipment of Wiis and year long advertising it should do great.

[MaryJane]

I read your 2007 lineup thingy and was pleased. And I even agree with a lot of the points you have made in this thread.

Believe it or not the success of the DS worries me for two reasons. 1. Part of that success was based on history, Nintendo has yet to disappoint in the handheld market. Just as Sony has yet (because as I said before most video gamers are ignorant) to disappoint in the console market. 2. Nintendo may rely too heavily on the success of the DS in it's philosophy for the Wii when really they are in two worlds, if everyone who owend a DS wanted a Wii, there would be nothing to worry about. But that isn't true.

I want, and believe the Wii can be successful, it's just a long struggle, that requires a lot more than them doing well. It also requires many more (public) failures on Sony's part.

[couchmonkey]

Edit: Ha ha ha, I took so long to reply, three other posts popped up.

The short version:

Sony's reputation won't save it, Nintendo's reputation never saved anything.  Also, Nintendo is targeting brand-new markets while Sony and Microsoft target the same old ones.  Will it work?  DS says "yes".  Your comment on the latest GTA release for PSP is a good example: how many people are going to buy a PSP for that game when there was already a GTA on the system last year?  That game is preaching to the choir.  Last, but not least, power is overrated as a factor in video game popularity. The most powerful system has never won.



The loooooong version:

1. Nintendo needs a more powerful system.

The most obvious counterpoint to this Nintendo's handheld market.  Nintendo has practically never had the most powerful handheld (except when no other handhelds were competing) and yet Nintendo always wins.  It's easy to attribute this to the particulars of handheld gaming - you need high battery life, fast load times, etc.  Nevertheless, the point is that more power does not equal more sales.

And it's true in the home console market too.  Amiga, 3DO, 32X, CD-I, Jaguar, Neo-Geo, N64, GameCube, Xbox - the market is littered with powerful products that are all failures in comparison to NES, SNES/Genesis, PS1 and PS2.  This is the first time a big company has put a much less powerful console up against other big companies' more powerful systems, but even so all signs say that power does not equal success.

What does equal success?  The right games pointed at the right markets.  Genesis stole Nintendo marketshare by offering more violent games to Nintendo's growing adolescent audience.  Sony stole more marketshare by continuing in the Sega tradition of games aimed at aging players, and also by offering a much more flexible liscencing plan than Nintendo (or Sega).   This attracted literally 1000s of third party games.

But now Sony is tightening its grip on third parties.  Both Sony and Microsoft have high requirements for the "HD age".  Nintendo offers a way out with cheaper development costs, and it is even setting the standard with Wii Sports, a game that looks like it could be done on N64 with a few extra special effects.  Wii will see the return of 2D gaming and simpler graphics, and third parties will make games for it in huge quantities just because it's so darn cheap.  Ubi Soft has already announced 7 more games for the first third of 2006.

2. Nintendo is for kids

Of course none of this third party support matters if Nintendo is still only for kids right?  I'd like to know, how many people here have a parent that regularly plays Xbox or Playstation?  If Nintendo is for kids, then Sony and Microsoft are for 10-30 year-old guys - kinda nerdy ones at that.  Nintendo is looking to target new markets with products like Wii Sports.  To paraphrase Iwata, Pepsi outsold Coke not by competing on the cola market, but by introducing beverages for more health-conscious consumers.  And it's working!  Just look at the enormous sales of Brain Training and Nintendogs.

Not only that, but just as Sega targeted my own aging teen demographic way back in the day, I think Nintendo is on its way to targeting my own soon to be middle-aged *SHUDDER* demographic with Wii.  The system is designed to appeal to moms.  And who's the adult in every young household that's nagging about video games?  Wii is exercise, Wii is social, Wii is what Microsoft'snt.

I'm not saying Wii will magically make gaming okay in the eyes of moms everywhere.  The point is that Nintendo has a chance to target ANYBODY now.  Who are Sony and Microsoft going to target besides the same old audiences they targeted last year?  Does Gears of War get anybody new playing?

3. Sony is so popular and rich it will eventually come back

Just like Nintendo came back from Genesis?  Or from Playstation?  My point is, no matter how popular you are in the game industry, you can still fall.  Sony's reputation may prevent it from losing completely, but at the very least it's going to fall hard this generation.  As for Sony's money...well, the company will have to sell off a lot of assets before it has much money again.

You mentioned that your friends think Wii is fun, but they're hyped for PS3.  How many are buying a PS3 right now?  How many are saying, "Oh I'll get one when the price drops," or, "I'm waiting for Final Fantasy"?  If Wii earns 15 million customers this year, and Xbox 360 gets up to 20 million but PS3 can only manage 8 million, where do you think third parties are going to put their games?  Just last week Koei announced two more exclusives from PS3 are being ported to Xbox 360.  

Conclusion (sorry this is so long, I love this stuff):

Sony does still have a reputation and that may be enough to prevent PS3 from bombing completely - similar to Super NES.  But Sony is facing a lot of challenges - it's fighting a three-front war: PSP vs. DS and PS3 vs. Xbox 360 and (supposedly) PS2 vs. Wii.  It's losing on the PSP front, it's losing tons of cash and screwing up terribly on the PS3 front, and I think the PS2 front is laughable - yes the consoles are comparable in some respects and PS2 has a better game lineup, but customers looking for the Wii are looking for a user experience that PS2 simply can't match.  

[NWR_pap64]

Quote
Originally posted by: MaryJane
I read your 2007 lineup thingy and was pleased. And I even agree with a lot of the points you have made in this thread.

Believe it or not the success of the DS worries me for two reasons. 1. Part of that success was based on history, Nintendo has yet to disappoint in the handheld market. Just as Sony has yet (because as I said before most video gamers are ignorant) to disappoint in the console market. 2. Nintendo may rely too heavily on the success of the DS in it's philosophy for the Wii when really they are in two worlds, if everyone who owend a DS wanted a Wii, there would be nothing to worry about. But that isn't true.

I want, and believe the Wii can be successful, it's just a long struggle, that requires a lot more than them doing well. It also requires many more (public) failures on Sony's part.

The thing is that even Nintendo didn't predict the HUGE success of the DS. Back when they announced it, they kept saying that it wasn't meant to replace the GBA but as a quirky third pillar console ala Virtual boy. Because of that, everyone said that the DS wouldn't last long because:
- There isn't enough room for two handhelds
- It was silly of Nintendo to put the DS against its own GBA market
- The gimmick wouldn't last
- The PSP was a sure fire handheld that everyone wanted

But time even proved Nintendo wrong. It got to the point where Nintendo had to come out and say "The DS is here to stay". In other words, it went from gimmicky  to a worldwide gaming stable.

And it reached that status by providing both games that everyone can pick up and play and games that the hardcore fanbase enjoys. And Nintendo seems to be doing just that with the Wii. Once again if you look at the 2007 release games, half of the games are hardcore games fanboys eat up while the other half are games  that can be enjoyed by anyone. Once again, the DS and Wii may come from different worlds, but both share a similar principle: provide quirky, fun, deep and enjoyable games using an unique and innovative gaming system.

Oh and about Sony not disappointing in the console market, that may be true but life can be a cruel little bitch. Remember how back in the NES and SNES era Nintendo could do absolutely no wrong? They released the N64, made many piss poor decisions and they were taken over by the PSone, a highly inferior console that provided the games everyone wanted. Same with Sega. Their poor decisions drove them out of the hardware market and into software development.

I'm not saying that this is what will happen to Sony because, like I said, life can be tricky, but there's no denying that Sony has been making some questionable decisions that resemble those of the past. As the saying goes "History has the tendency to repeat itself".

[couchmonkey]

Pap: I agree with you on DS, although I think Nintendo always hoped it would come to this.  I think DS was meant as an experiment to see if a Wii-like concept would be viable.  If DS had not succeeded, Nintendo would have withdrawn it from the market and Game Boy would have gone back to being the primary handheld, but I think the scenario we wound up with was probably imagined as well.

Sony will lose market share, I think Microsoft is really determined to kick some Sony butt (and Xbox 360 looks like the better system right now) and I think Nintendo is on track to at least gain back some market share that GameCube lost.