With how well Switch sold from its March 3rd release date, I've always felt like Nintendo would try for that time of the calendar again in a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" superstitious sort of attitude. I think it also would help with holiday sales momentum to release earlier in the year so that you get the initial sales rush from early adopters and then can get a second spike during the holiday sales and restock up for that time as well.
I think your last point is a big part of it. Supply can be an issue with new consoles, and with a March launch you can get the die hards to buy in early, then build up a bit of a software base and more stock for a kind of "second launch" in the holiday season.
I love this strategy!
Thanks! You know I'm something of a business strategist myself.
Just on a further role to prove that, Nintendo may look at what happened with the 3DS in which it launched ok but then sales slowed down so they course corrected with a price drop and were able to see it have a decent holiday and gain back momentum. With the Wii U, once the holiday was over and early adopters grabbed it, they really didn't have a way to re-spark that momentum (they already had a "cheaper" model out and their game release schedule was pretty sparse) plus the PS4 and XBox One took all the headlines for the following holiday season. It was pretty effectively killed once the news started coming out on its sales crash. It's another reason why I think they'd prefer to launch more in a spring season than in the past. More opportunities and ways to course correct if the launch phase falters a bit and you still have the holiday season coming up to get things back on track.
Of course, if it can go smoothly, like things did with the OG Switch's launch, where it is successful and the news is good then you can further steamroll and gain momentum in that time for the holiday season ahead and gain a big userbase and keep increasing demand as more and more people want into that gaming ecosphere and join in the next hot new thing and you've got another Wii, DS, Switch on your hands. If that's the case, you want to carefully retire the Switch 1 so that it doesn't get in the way of that momentum and perhaps no price cut is a way to make sure of that.
On the topic of the DS, Nintendo may be looking back at how they handled the transition from the GBA to the DS. GBA was a system that was still selling and growing its userbase and might have done more but Nintendo carefully put it out to pasture while allowing the DS to gain momentum. The famous third pillar strategy in which if the DS faltered then perhaps Nintendo sticks with the GBA system a bit longer and replaces it with a more traditional gaming system (single screen, no touch, more powerful graphics).
There was an old Iwata interview that was discovered a couple months ago talking about the DS vs PSP launch. At the time, everyone was focused on those new systems and the battle to determine the handheld market. Yet, Iwata said this at the time: "By the time the PSP is probably released worldwide, the total (GBA) install base will be around 60 million units," he confidently remarked, "They will need to show superiority against both the existing 60 million GBA units and the DS, which offers new ways to play. I think that will be a tough challenge." Looking back, I think a lot of gamers would have thought that comment ridiculous because look at the PSP compared to the GBA when it comes to what the systems could do in functionality, the power, the design of them. How is the GBA a challenge to it? But it was and is true. Yeah, the system was older but it had a huge game library at that point and was much cheaper than the PSP and the current market leader. Nintendo still gave it support in the first year of the DS and even released the Micro revision for it and the system still kept selling even while the DS began to gain momentum and then take off leaving the PSP behind in sales and effectively retiring the Game Boy line. That support of the GBA still is probably an unrecognized part of Nintendo's victory vs Sony in the handheld space. It was something that could draw away potential customers from the PSP at first who may have decided to go with something more affordable and with a large game selection and think about getting a PSP later down the road thus slowing its momentum.
It's the same thing with Switch 2. It might be an easier sell for Switch 1 users to jump to a Switch 2 but it is still a new system that is coming out and has to take on the current market leader to succeed. Nintendo has seen good and bad times when trying to pass the torch on from a successful hardware line to that line's successor. I'm sure the pros and cons of a potential price drop for the Switch 1 are being looked at more in line of what effect it might have on the Switch 2 rather than on claiming a new sales record or ensuring the Switch hardware userbase grows even larger just before trying to then have them turn around and buy a new system. In my mind, anyone buying a new Switch system now in the latter half of this year is probably not going to then turn around and buy a Switch 2 when it launches next year. (Unless it's that idea of a back-up system or a videogame collector adding to their collection). Chances are anyone actually getting a Switch for the first time now is likely going to just stick with using that system and its library for awhile and jump on Switch 2 later. That makes the most financial sense to me. Thus, Switch sales now may actually be working against the Switch 2 as those could possibly have been sales for that system if it was out now in this latter half of the year. It goes back to the thought that Switch 2 is going to be competing against a system with one of the biggest userbases and software catalogues in the history of this medium. PS3 struggled in succeeding PS2 and PS5 is still struggling to get out of the PS4's shadow and get that userbase to move on.
It's part of the reason now where I'm really excited for Nintendo to finally unveil this proposed next system. How similar is it going to be to the current switch? Are they going to try something new with controllers again? Try and find a way to add a second screen somehow? Are they just going to go the simple route and focus on beefing up processing and computing power and feel that's all they need to do? Is that all the market wants from a second Switch? Because that doesn't seem to have helped the PS5 immediately swallow up the PS4 base and have them jump ship to the latest console. A lot of gamers are still content to keep playing and buying new games for the PS4 instead. How much more do you feed the beast of Switch 1 now? Obviously, Nintendo recognizes there's still plenty of money and sales to be found with the Switch 1 audience in software. It makes sense to me that they had a good direct and with variously appealing software for different tastes. No sense shutting down software development immediately for the system and hope to go a year on just old game remasters or ports.
That said, I don't think there's software at this point that might be pushing or causing more hardware sales. Nor do I think Nintendo is trying to put out any software like that. I think Tears of the Kingdom or possibly Super Mario Bros. Wonder would be the last software titles released that might have induced people to buy a Switch if they hadn't already. The software being released now is stuff that's just playing to the crowd and userbase. Stuff that they know people who have already bought a Switch will be happy to see and purchase/play but it's nothing that's going to move the needle for hardware attachment rate or sales. Metroid Prime has never been that kind of hardware seller either but is there anyone here who doesn't think that's likely to be a cross-platform game with Switch 2 in a Twilight Princess / Breath of the Wild situation? That might help add some hype to the Switch 2 launch but if launched on Switch 1 also then already that battle between Switch 1 slowing momentum from Switch 2 will have begun by negating a software title that could have been exclusive to Switch 2 and make Switch 1 users feel like they can wait on adopting the next console that early.
While I was impressed and happy about the titles being offered for the latter half of the year, these are definitely more titles for the hardcore Nintendo fan who will likely already have a Switch and is to tide them over until the next system arrives. I'm definitely looking forward to the upcoming Zelda game and it could make a nice final hurrah for the system since Kirby seems to be absent suddenly at this time. Usually he's around to help hold the pillow down at the end of a system's life. Maybe he shows up early next year.
I'm sure I had a point somewhere in there when I started but I think I let myself get sidetracked onto different topics. Ah, forum posting. This is where the gold is. In long walls of text like this. You're all welcome. So much to unpack and enjoy. I suppose my quick summary of what I wanted to say was the biggest obstacle for the success of Switch 2 may very well be Switch 1's userbase and how quickly that userbase will want to move on or adopt the system. Switch 2 has to fight that success and more Switch 1 sales may actually be working against setting Switch 2 up to succeed. Hence, price cut for Switch 1 needs to be looked at in how it could affect Switch 2 momentum. While the Direct gave the Switch 1 library another shot in the arm with many titles of interest, they're also titles for the hardcore Switch users. It makes sense for Nintendo to still keep selling software to this big of a userbase while they can so good titles for Switch 1 this late in its life shouldn't actually be that surprising and looked at in the light of whether Switch 1 gets a price cut because of them.
(Unmentioned but thought about. Nintendo perhaps regretting not appealing to the Wii userbase more after Skyward Sword and the release of the Wii U. Meanwhile, Ubisoft continued to take advantage of the sales potential there for almost a decade with Just Dance titles. Possible cheaper hardware revision. GBA had Micro when DS came out. 3DS had NEW 2DS XL release after Switch came out. Wii had the Wii Mini just before the Wii U launch. Some of these revisions were sold at a lower cost. With Switch Lite already on the market, is there much of possible revision (cheaper) model that could actually be put out at this time or after Switch 2 launches?)
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System variants have been all over the place but within July - October indicating that Nintendo does want to take advantage of holiday sales momentum with these different models:
