Topic: Rev in Nov. Wha?

[Ian Sane]

Rumour 2

Gamespot says "this is looking not bogus" but their logic for that is "MCV can't be wrong, sucka" so who knows.

If the Rev launches in November I think it would be fair to say the Revolution's f*cked.  This is the console that is being largely ignored to begin with.  Six months after the PS3 is released and a whole year after the Xbox 360 and people aren't even going to remember what Nintendo is.  Timing for the launch is extremely important.  It's safe to assume no one cares because that's pretty accurate so it's near or before PS3 launch or bust.  Plus the Cube lineup they were showing at E3 isn't going to last past summer 2006 at the latest and repeating the "no Nintendo console games for six months" routine from the Cube launch would be pretty dumb.  Of course Nintendo can't really change anything now.  If they're aiming for November they can't just move the launch up.  They'll be stuck with a nothing launch lineup then which could be just as disasterous (or perhaps worse).  It's kind of scary to think that the Rev's success may be already decided based on decisions Nintendo made months or perhaps even years before launch.

Nintendo's E3 showing certainly suggests a late launch what with them showing no games or controller or specs.  I don't think that means they're going to be late.  I truly think they held back on purpose to not reveal their "secrets".  But I can see how a "we've got, um, a case design" E3 showing, in relation to Sony and MS actually showing stuff, can be interpreted as being behind.  Gamespot's probably saying "not bogus" because they're jumping to conclusions about the E3 no-show.

[Rhoq]

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane


Nintendo's E3 showing certainly suggests a late launch what with them showing no games or controller or specs.  I don't think that means they're going to be late.  I truly think they held back on purpose to not reveal their "secrets".  But I can see how a "we've got, um, a case design" E3 showing, in relation to Sony and MS actually showing stuff, can be interpreted as being behind.  Gamespot's probably saying "not bogus" because they're jumping to conclusions about the E3 no-show.

Unfortuantely, what was written over at GameSpot makes a lot of sense. Miyamoto said in that IGN interview that Revolution development kits hadn't been sent out to, yet. Given that the amount of time it takes to develop a game is at least 18 months, if Nintendo were to send kits out within the next week or two - a 4Q2006 or the more likely 1Q2007 launch seems like the only option they have at this point. I also agree with you that if this is the case and the final Revolution specs make it weaker than both Microsoft's and Sony's consoles, Nintendo is fu*ked. Nobody will care.

[HereticPB]

Well, since PS3 has no launch date either how can they say Rev is F---ed?

HtPB

[Ian Sane]

I forgot about the dev kit thing.  I don't necessarily think that means a late launch.  Nintendo didn't give third parties much time before the Cube launch either which is why most third party games at launch were really buggy, crappy ports (and that's also largely why the Cube is in last place now instead of second).  So the dev kits might just be Nintendo being their usual idiotic selves in regards to third party support.  That's not good obviously but it might not mean a late launch.  Personally I think having a well supported later launch would be better than an early crappy launch but they're kind of screwed with either option.  Those of us buying a Rev will benefit from a later but better launch though.

The specs thing though would really be a disaster.  Weakest console coming out last?  You couldn't try to think of a better way to turn people away.  I'm concerned over the Rev specs but I'm going to at least wait until we know what they are.

[LuWoo75]

That would be hard to believe cause there is very lil GC support in '06 that would be a dangerous stragedy for Ninty.  It is true though it's about a year till launch and there hasn't been any dev kits sent out circa E3.  In all fairness only thing we saw from the PS3 were FMV they could be just as far from a good launch.  

This is all my post is a train wreck fault for pushing the Next generation systems b4 anyone was ready.  I aint mad at Ninty at all cause they are just trying to do the right thing by taking there time and not launching with crappy tittles and lil online support if the rumors are even true.

[Deguello]

Keeping your cards close is very crucial at this point.  Notice how every interview with Sony always results in some Sony rep saying the "Xbox 1.5" meme.  That's bcuase MS jumped the gun and blew their load too soon.  Then Sony was able to create those trumped up tech demos running on non-PS3 hardware and use that as evidence that Sony was the TRUE next-gen, and MS was just giving a small upgrade.  

They don't talk about Nintendo much, not because they don't see them as a competitor (after the PSP got its hide tanned at E3, Sony BETTER consider Nintendo a competitor, a big one), but because Nintendo has not revealed everything yet.

[Ian Sane]

LuWoo everytime you use a dollar sign for MS it posts "my post is a train wreck".  That, well, turns you posts into train wrecks so you should probably stop doing that.  I agree that MS moving everything forward a year is screwing things up.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

INDUSTRY CRASH

[Rhoq]

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Originally posted by: HereticPB
Well, since PS3 has no launch date either how can they say Rev is F---ed?

Sony has stated more than few times now that they are aiming for a "Spring 2006" launch. Spring is the 2nd Quarter (April, May and June). There are evern a few rumors suggesting they might launch as earlier as 4Q2005 to take the 360 head-on.

Nintendo should have revealed a little more about the revolution. The controller wasn't a must-see, but demo videos of software would have at least made people more aware. Instead they showed an empty black box, called it the "Revolution" said a few things about on-line (including the 20 years of downloadable Nintendo classics), backwards compatibilty with GameCube and mentioned that Super Smash Borther Online would be a launch title. The only other thing mentioned was that (big surprise) Mario, Zelda & Metroid games are in development for the Revolution. The only thing mentioned on the 3rd Party fornt was that Square-Enix was on board to bring a new Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicals title to the Revolution.

Big deal. Microsoft & Sony had footage to show - whether it was actual in-game footage or not is debatable but they had something. All Nintendo showed was a brief FMV of Metroid Prime, which looked like it could have come from a 'Cube game. With the GameCube in 3rd place and Nintendo losing home console market share on a daily basis, they need to make their presence known. Media has all but dismissed Nintendo at this point. When you read stories about "the next generation" it seems that only PS3 and XBox360 are mentioned. That's not good for Ninty.

[LuWoo75]

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Originally posted by: Ian Sane
LuWoo everytime you use a dollar sign for MS it posts "my post is a train wreck".  That, well, turns you posts into train wrecks so you should probably stop doing that.  I agree that MS moving everything forward a year is screwing things up.

Ah i c, i was wondering what was going on thanx, damned MS.

[nickmitch]

The only thing now that could save Nintendo is Spaceworld in November. It could distract people from the 360 launch. If they give the specs and show the controller (along with some cube games) then that could creat pre-E3 buzz. Videoes and having someone (Reggie) play it in front of a crowd would be enough before public demoes (sp?) at E3.

[Rhoq]

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Originally posted by: Deguello
They don't talk about Nintendo much, not because they don't see them as a competitor (after the PSP got its hide tanned at E3, Sony BETTER consider Nintendo a competitor, a big one), but because Nintendo has not revealed everything yet.

While that might true as far as the handhelds are concerned (DS beat the PSP's ass at E3, hands down) - it has nothing to do with what's going on with the home consoles. Nintendo is in a tight spot. If the Revolution isn't something truly remarkable and worth all of the guarded secrecy, nobody is going to care when it's finally ready for retail.

Ian - I agree about it being absolutely necessary to have a strong line-up and no drought. If they can't deliver the games and be able to "wow" consumers with both hardware and software, then Nintendo will have sealed their fate.
Sony was able to convince many kids that Nintendo wasn't "cool" anymore when they beat the N64 with the PSOne.

Nintendo's family-friendly image didn't exactly help the GameCube (nor did the color "indigo") since many people associated it's small size and odd color as being for kids. Instead, everyone flocked to the PS2 and X-Box. The end result was the 'Cube coming in last place. Being the butt of numerous jokes. Nearly taking Nintendo out of everyone's proverbial equation whenever consoles are discussed outside of Nintendo-centric media outlets and last but not least - we lost a good majority of 3rd party support (either full or partial).

The Revolution is going to mean everyhting to Nintendo come it's launch. If it's unsuccessful, I don't think there will be a successor in the generation that will follow.

[ruby_onix]

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Should it go toe-to-toe with the PS3's launch date, or should it wait until the all-important holiday season to build up a critical mass of launch titles? An article in today's MCV indicates that the company has chosen the latter, as it quotes a "senior Nintendo source" as saying: "We’re currently looking at mirroring the DS strategy, so Revolution would release in the US first in November, closely followed by Japan--then we’re looking at March 2007 for PAL territories."

This doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

The DS was "simple" hardware, basically a GBA times two, which Nintendo was apparently fully comfortable with, and capable of producing in large quantities. Iwata set the Japanese launch late enough to get some good games ready, but early enough to catch Christmas. America would have to wait longer for the games. And probably miss Christmas. Reggie said "Screw that. Just gimme the hardware. Gimme it now." and the DS launched in America with pretty much just Mario 64DS and backwards compatibility.

Why would Nintendo "plan" on following that same of timeline? Down to the same months even? It was an averted disaster. Nintendo was damn lucky to have not lost the entire United States to Sony.

Sure, I could see it happening again in the same way, because the Rev is supposedly familiar hardware, basically a Cube times two. And Nintendo obviously always wants to catch Christmas, but they need time to get games ready. And if Iwata is Japan-focused, Reggie might just want the hardware again, since it's backwards-compatible, and it might even have the online download thing ready for launch.

But I just can't see Nintendo wanting to repeat history (not to meantion that they've have to be utterly dismissing the competition to think that they can repeat it), when they can obviously learn from it a refine/co-ordinate their strategy to do even better.


BTW, does anyone remember the first things we ever learned about the Rev? Iwata saying "PS2 had an advantage in that they had DVD. That won't happen again." Cough-blu-ray-cough.

And "The PS2 had an advantage in that it launched early. That won't happen again." Yeah, now it's both Sony and Microsoft launching before you. And you're the only one in the group who's not tempted to keep milking your current console, because it happens to be dead in the water.

[jasonditz]

You guys are so melodramatic, geez...

[Rhoq]

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Originally posted by: jasonditz
You guys are so melodramatic, geez...

Melodramatic? Maybe.

Real? Definitely.

[mantidor]

What makes you all people think that the ps3 its like ready to go? it has already been stated the chips arent even finalized. This is sony's marketing and hype playing with you, I wouldnt be surprised at all if the ps3 gets delayed or has an even crappier launch than the ps2. This is precisely the reason Nintendo didnt show any footage, they dont like to cheat and hype based on nothing, which is what sony did. Its sad that the industry doesnt akcnowledge Nintendo's honesty, but its even more sad that some of you, their fans, doesnt aknowledge that either.

[LuWoo75]

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Originally posted by: mantidor
What makes you all people think that the ps3 its like ready to go? it has already been stated the chips arent even finalized. This is sony's marketing and hype playing with you, I wouldnt be surprised at all if the ps3 gets delayed or has an even crappier launch than the ps2. This is precisely the reason Nintendo didnt show any footage, they dont like to cheat and hype based on nothing, which is what sony did. Its sad that the industry doesnt akcnowledge Nintendo's honesty, but its even more sad that some of you, their fans, doesnt aknowledge that either.

I co-sign to that.  I'm not going to believe this one unless it's straight from NInty.

[Pale]

How is this a rumor?  All along I've assumed it.  November/December is the time to launch a console.  They did it with the GCN.  They did it with the DS...  Just because some memory manufacturer starts a rumor that it will launch it the summer doesn't make this rumor any less likely.

I think it would be a better idea for Nintendo to NOT launch head to head with Sony.  If the PS3 has been out for 6 months and the Revolution is as cool as it will be (=P) then launching third could be a good thing.

I said it before and I'll say it again.  Nintendo has fans and will stay in business for the same reason Apple stayed in business (before the IPOD).  You shouldn't get yourself worked up that you aren't going to see this dream head to head launch.  Hell, if it launches head to head with the PS3, do you really think it stands a chance?  Come on.

[Pale]

Quote
Originally posted by: jasonditz
You guys are so melodramatic, geez...

[ThePerm]

honestly i think the time it takes to devlop a game is going to cut in half...with better graphics comes less and less the need to optimize. Also, it makes it even easier to reuse things. Say i make a desk model for game x well for game y i need a desk and game y's desk is looking pretty nice. And also, nintendo should launch the system in Japan around april? Why? Ps2 was launched around holiday season in japan which is march/april..some sort of out of school holiday the kids have. It might as well be the same as christmas here.

[mantidor]

Not to mention that the Rev uses the same APIs as GC, developers can already start development or when the dev kits arrive they can catch up faster.

[PaLaDiN]

I think the biggest reason the Cube is in third is because it launched at the same time as Microsoft so people had to choose between them on the spot with their respective launch lineups, and the Cube didn't really have anything to fight Halo.

If Nintendo had delayed the GC until they had a solid launch lineup of games, who knows how this would all have turned out?

I'm not so sure launching at the same time as the PS3 would be a good idea... the Rev would just get crushed under Sony's hype. I can see them positioning the Revolution as an actual next gen console and not just graphical upgrades like the PS3 and X360... this would also tie in neatly with the rumored Rev specs but I'm not letting myself believe those.

[Mario]

What the hell is going on in this thread? At first glance I thought that yeah Revolution is definately TEZH DOOMED if it's going to launch in five months, then I saw 2006 and went "oh".

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If the Rev launches in November I think it would be fair to say the Revolution's f*cked.

That is very fair Ian! I think it would be more fair to wait and see how things pan out, but that wouldn't be a very fun thing to do on a message board.

- PS3 could launch in November as well
- Even if Nintendo are "planning" to release Revolution in November at this moment in time, they have a year to change their mind
- November would probably only be a few months later than PS3 anyway, no big deal
- Nintendo could have a game ready for the Revolution launch, WHENEVER that may be, that will shock the world and make people buy the console regardless of the marketing position of its launch
- Nobody KNOWS what Nintendo are planning, so it IS unfair to dismiss them as being doomed just because of the month they may or may not be launching their console (which also happens to be the second biggest month of the year, leading into the biggest month, the thing I'd be more worried about is shortages)

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I also agree with you that if this is the case and the final Revolution specs make it weaker than both Microsoft's and Sony's consoles, Nintendo is fu*ked. Nobody will care.

More like nobody will care about specs, I bet 99% of people won't be able to tell the difference between a Revolution game and a PS3 or Xbox 360 game graphically.

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The only thing now that could save Nintendo is Spaceworld in November.

Yes, only unvieling everything at THAT EXACT TIME, could Nintendo have a chance to get people interested in a console they won't be able to buy for a year!

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If Nintendo had delayed the GC until they had a solid launch lineup of games, who knows how this would all have turned out?

Like they did in Australia? We got over 20 games at launch, now GC has less than 1% market share. (though that's mostly from other reasons =P)  

[Ian Sane]

"if it launches head to head with the PS3, do you really think it stands a chance?"

I don't think anyone is asking for that.  We just think that significantly later could be very dangerous.  Launching at the exact same time would be pretty dumb.  I think a month or two before or after would be ideal.  Before would be much better.

"Even if Nintendo are 'planning' to release Revolution in November at this moment in time, they have a year to change their mind"

No they don't.  They can't just take a launch lineup that was aiming for November and move it up.  The games are the real issue here.  They're the inflexible part of the equation.  Nintendo could move the Rev launch to spring 2006 but the f*ck load of good that would do without any games.  We would get something like the DS launch lineup which miraculously didn't sink Nintendo's portable market.  Sony overpricing the PSP is the only thing that saved Nintendo's ass with that one.  The Rev could not survive that scenario.   There's just no way.

"PS3 could launch in November as well"

That's entirely possible but Sony showed some real info at E3.  That to me gives me confidence in their ability to launch in Spring 2006 like all the predictions say.  Maybe they won't and they're full of crap but it's believable that Sony could launch on time.  It takes blind faith to believe Nintendo will.  Nintendo brought all this negative speculation on themselves with their E3 no-show.  There's no real evidence to suggest to anyone but Nintendo fans that work on the Rev is going smoothly.  Maybe it is.  Maybe everything's cool.  But there's nothing beyond gut feeling that suggests that which is why this November rumour is creating a stir.

[Rocketsastrostexans]

The day after Turkey day (in 2006)  is 12/01/2006.
The Revolution will need to be on store shelves before 12/01/2006 (for the American launch).....if Nintendo can pull that off they will be ok.  

I think this next generation is launching too early.......I hope I'm right.....we will find out soon enough.