Topic: Reuters: Iawata says Wii may be able to top PS2 sales | Hardware side of Wii business already profitable

[Mashiro]

Source: Reuters.com

Full Story: http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN1232602520070713?feedType=RSS&pageNumber=2

Points of interest:

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Sales of Nintendo's quirky Wii video game machine could top the legendary PlayStation 2, making it the biggest hit in the industry's history, Nintendo President Satoru Iwata said on Thursday.

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"Sony's PS2 sales of 100 million units is an extraordinary number that our home game console business has not achieved," Iwata said.

"But if we can make our bid to expand the gaming population a continued success, we could exceed that," he told Reuters.

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Iwata also said the hardware side of its Wii game console business has already turned profitable.

It is not uncommon for a game maker to sustain prolonged losses in its hardware business while making money from software sales.

[Bill Aurion]

"Sales of Nintendo's quirky Wii video game machine could top the legendary PlayStation 2, making it the biggest hit in the industry's history, Nintendo President Satoru Iwata said on Thursday."

DS will get there first... =D

[Kairon]

Nah, The Wii will hit 50-60 million, 75 mil tops if they're lucky....

[that Baby guy]

Chasing Kairon, part quattro:

Sarcasm launch detected.

[ShyGuy]

At least a quarter of the PS2 sales were repeat customers replacing defective hardware. Nintendo needs to make the Wii break more.

[Ghisy]

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Originally posted by: ShyGuy
At least a quarter of the PS2 sales were repeat customers replacing defective hardware.

QFT

[JoeTrumpet]

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Originally posted by: Ghisy

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Originally posted by: ShyGuy
At least a quarter of the PS2 sales were repeat customers replacing defective hardware.

QFT

I'm going to have to double quote that one. I'm one of the only people I know that's still on their first PS2, and I know at least one person that has gone even further than a second.  

For that reason alone I don't expect the Wii to top the PS2. However, considering how expanded the market truly has proven to be, you never know.

[Neodymium]

I think it's been proven that the mainstream consumer is happy to replace faulty hardware with a repeat buy.

Ask any iPod user how many he's gone through.

[UERD]

I think fully half of the electronics I buy now are defective out of the box, or become defective after several weeks of use. Quality control in general sucks now.

[Ceric]

"Will catch up with the PS2 in ~236 Months or ~19 Years 8 Months" - NPD May (US)
"Will catch up with the PS2 in ~307 Weeks or ~5 Years 47 Weeks" - The Weeks before Media Create Data (Japan) (I haven't done this weeks yet I'm tweaking the software.)

Though it all boils down to really is if they can get their production up.  If Nintendo is selling every unit they produce like we believe in the markets we have data for, sorry Europe and the rest of the world, as you can see they aren't going to do it at the current production levels.  The Wii will not have 20 years to sell.  Now if you take into account that Reuters, I believe, had a story the other day that stated Nintendo was having some problems with the manufacturing of some of the parts for the Wii and has stated that there will probably be shortages this holiday season because of it; the statement is great and everything but it doesn't hold enough water at the moment.  Production needs to not necessarily meet demand but there should be enough units being put out to sale to facilitate such a number in a reasonable time frame.  In its red hot state I would like to see that number closer to 5 if not 4 years to honestly make that goal.  It took the PS2 about 7 years to get to that number.

On the DS side of things:

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NPD May (US)

Will catch up with the PS2 in ~115 Months or ~9 Years 7 Months

Will catch up with the GBA in ~71 Months or ~5 Years 11 Months

Will catch up with the GC in ~01 Months

Will catch up with the XBX in ~07 Months

"Will catch up with the PS2 in ~18 Weeks"- The Weeks before Media Create Data (Japan) (Same reason as above)

As you can see from the current numbers that the DS is posed to outsell the PS2 relatively soon in Japan; here in the States the DS will have finally surpassed the Gamecube in June if everything goes correctly.  No wonder NCL is disappointed with the DS sales here in the States, Europe paints a different story where I hear that the DS is selling much better.  Now as we all now the US and Europe are both larger markets then Japan.  Which means to carry those type of numbers you will need their help as well.  Especially considering the PS2 is still selling well and is even getting a new version this holiday that is lighter.

In the end though for the Wii its not getting enough product out there, last world numbers put it at 8,637,000 and its been out about 7 months so we'll say thats ~1,233,857 units sold per month worldwide so it take about ~81 months, or ~6 years 9 months, at the current rate if Sony didn't sell a single PS2 from here on out and using the straight 100 million number, even thought I think its 110 mil.   As you can see it is possible and doable IF Nintendo can start getting larger volumes of product out their for the consumer to snap up and they can maintain these types of sales throughout the whole lifecycle of the Wii.  On the DS side, they need something to make it a full fledge phenomenon here in the States if they want to achieve that with it as well.