Topic: Wii Successor and Glassess Free 3D: How Will It Work?

[Stogi]

I think the Wii 2 won't launch in 2011 for two reasons:

1. The 3DS is going to have a huge Christmas that year and unnecessarily competing with your own hardware, for what ever reason, is idiotic.

2. The Wii still has plenty of room for price drops. The GC went down to $99 before the Wii was announced. This was due to slumping sales. Who says the Wii can't do the same for the same reason? My guess is that they'll announce a price drop and new bundle package at E3. Yes, this will compete with the 3DS but not as significantly as a Wii 2 would.

My guess? The Wii 2 will be announced at E3 2012 and then released in November.

[Spak-Spang]

I can see giving Nintendo Wii one last holiday.  I actually think it will happen that way.  I think there is enough momentum to carry the Wii throughout 2011.  However, I think we will only be seeing 3-4 releases for the Wii from Nintendo during that time.  Zelda, Wiimusic +, Pikmin 3 perhaps. 

I think Microsoft and Sony are locked through 2012 with their current systems.  Specially, after the motion controls investment...unless they both think they can just carry those devices and games into the next generation...which I don't think they can.  Holiday 2012 is when we will see the next consoles from MS and Sony. 

I think a March 2012 launch of the Wii 2.0 would be a fantastic strategy.  The system would be out on the market for 7-8 months before the competition.  However, it could still easily have hardware similar enough to allow ports, and not enough time for the others to copy what Nintendo is doing.   It also means that 3rd parities will not have to compete as much with holiday system sells, that many gamers will have their money ready for just buying new games. 

I look at the 3DS launch as brilliant.  We know the PSP2 is coming out....probably holiday 2011.  Nintendo is getting a jump on Sony and riding their momentum strong.  Nintendo Wii's last year shoud be its 5th year.  Nintendo can drop the price of the system to like what you said in March, or offer some great bundles.  But realistically, Nintendo forced itself into a smaller console cycle by limited design and power of the Wii. 

[MaryJane]

Ubisoft's Just Dance is doing pretty well on the Wii, Goldeneye will likely sell well, Epic Mickey is a great exclusive, NBA Jam is looking decent, and Rock Band/Guitar Hero do best on Wii. 3rd party support is far from dead on Wii, hell we even got the latest COD on the same day as the other systems .

The Wii has two advantages over the Kinetic and (especially) Move.
1. Numbers
2. Developer familiarity

Developers are not only figuring out what games to release on Wii, but how to make those games make better use of the 'waggle'. Hopefully we start seeing truly in-depth games (like Epic Mickey) that use waggle intuitively. In Twilight Princess the waggle parts were at first cool and novel then by the end of the game I wanted to plug in my GC controller, it didn't add anything to gameplay. I'm hoping Skyward Sword corrects that. And I think 3rd parties have gotten the message that they need to make Nintendo-like games (in terms of quality, fun/intriguing gameplay, and even nostalgia) in order to sell well on the Wii.

On a side note I think the Kinect is great because you can potentially do great things with it like let's say you're playing a fight game and your in a grapple mashing buttons to get out, and performing a natural reaction, like standing, gets you out of it. Then there's the fact that this is a test for Microsoft wanting to pioneer a Minority Report type of computer interface which could really cool.

The Move is waggle without a 30 million user base, and can be weakened by your lighting set up, I don't see it doing well, but I could be wrong.

[Stogi]

Spak - I actually think the 3DS fucked up it's time tables. It should have been out this year, i.e., now. But due to not enough inventory, we have to wait till March. Which is fine, but the move wasn't made with strategy in mind. Just that it would be pointless to launch with nothing to sell through.

Launching the Wii 2 at that time (March 2012) wouldn't be strategic, but for a different reason. You want to show off the Wii 2 at E3 always. But if you announce it next year, you take away from the 3DS (i.e. reason 1) and the last games for the Wii (e.g. Skyward Sword). It's just not smart.

Wait till 2012 and have a huge unveiling of the Wii 2; announce the price of the system and date it.

[MaryJane]

We could see a teaser video for the Wii2 at E3 2011 like the 64Marios for the N64 or 3D Zelda for GC videos we got that never actually panned out into actual games.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'm glad I'm not the only one that isn't against the idea of a FY2011 (before end of March 2012) Wii2 launch.

One thing people in here don't seem to realize is how anorexic the Wii release schedule is, specifically in Japan, even when compared to the PSP. There is no more software support for the system outside of a few notables and it's been that way for quite some time already. The Wii HYPE train is already running on fumes and by the time 2011 is over, lots of current Wii owners will likely be ready to move on (if they aren't/haven't already) since there is nothing new coming over the horizon for the Wii.

Spak - I actually think the 3DS fucked up it's time tables. It should have been out this year, i.e., now. But due to not enough inventory, we have to wait till March. Which is fine, but the move wasn't made with strategy in mind. Just that it would be pointless to launch with nothing to sell through.

Launching the Wii 2 at that time (March 2012) wouldn't be strategic, but for a different reason. You want to show off the Wii 2 at E3 always. But if you announce it next year, you take away from the 3DS (i.e. reason 1) and the last games for the Wii (e.g. Skyward Sword). It's just not smart.

Wait till 2012 and have a huge unveiling of the Wii 2; announce the price of the system and date it.

I think the new 3DS time table does throw things off a bit, but you can think of it as a testbed for a new time table. 3DS will have the limelight come Xmas 2011 and Wii "will" have it's final holiday as the primary home system for Nintendo.


And announcing it at E3 or TGS or whatever won't really matter because only the hardcore/enthusiast are really paying attention and only the hardcore/enthusiast will be lining up in early 2012 to buy it.The 3DS will have ALL the marketing going into the holiday season and the only place you will hear about the Wii2 will be on the internet and gaming magazines. The mass majority of consumers will be aware of only the 3DS because of the constant barrage of HYPE from people that already own it and commercials shoving it down your throat. A Wii2 announcement or reveal 6 months ago will not matter to people trying to buy Xmas presents now because the Wii2 is not available for purchase.


The "Big Blowout" could be at CES if that's what is needed.


Sounds like a perfectly good plan to me should that be what Nintendo is up to.

[Stogi]

I can see them launching the system in March, but I'm saying it's not likely. Maybe the E3 reason wasn't the best, but how about this? Nintendo pissed off investors by not launching the 3DS this year. Only if it some how works out as a brilliant strategic move for releasing it late, I don't see them launching the Wii 2 in March. Q4 2011 is more likely to me, but Q4 2012 is what I have my chips on.

And E3 hugely important because it's like the ComicCon of the gaming world. It hypes up the geeks who in turn hype up regular people.

[NWR_insanolord]

It's in Nintendo's best interest to have space between the two hardware launches. It would allow them to give more first party support to each of them early on, as well as allowing third parties more time with devkits before launch and giving them time to react to success on the 3DS with increased support on the Wii 2. It would also give people time between the highly priced 3DS and the presumably more (or at least as) expensive Wii 2, which could lead to increased sales of the Wii 2 early on. They could do the big reveal somewhere else, but they obviously would prefer to do it at E3.


Wanting to get it out before the competition makes some sense, but they did that with the DS, and it didn't do them any favors because there was next to no quality software for the better part of a year and the hardware needed a major overhaul before it really started selling. The Wii, on the other hand, was the last current generation console to launch, and that doesn't seem to have hurt it.

[MaryJane]

The 3DS gives me a lot of hope for the Wii2. The original DS had the defining feature of two screens, and a novel (for videogames) input system in its touchscreen. Nintendo was able to take that, and make it's successor just as or even more exciting with the implementation of 3D. So how will Nintendo not only improve upon but make better/more exciting, what they have started with the Wii?

Besides that, 2011 is just too early to launch, and since the 3DS has accelerometers along with two rear facing cameras and some sort of IR device, it seems completely plausible that it could work with the Wii as a controller. And it could use wifi or bluetooth to transfer things between systems, the Wii is plenty flexible enough to work with the 3DS, and if it isn't, a firmware update fixes that.

Also, how many 1st party games came out for the Wii this year? Why is 3 or 4 scarce next year scarce?

[Spak-Spang]

I don't think Nintendo screwed up the 3DS timeline.  Nintendo looked at everything and changed their current ideal launch.  Screwed up means that the launch is going to be hurt by the new timeline, which I think it won't.  Also, who cares about crying shareholders.  Of course they are going to want to get the system out sooner...that doesn't mean it is the best course of action.  The Nintendo DS has had a fantastic run, and giving it another holiday and allowing gamers who bought a DSi XL to feel better about their purchase is a good thing. 

2011 is definitely the Wiis last year.  Whether that means early 2012 launch or late 2011 launch is yet to be seen.  But, I predict by September 2011 we have seen some form or information about the Wii 2.0, and I expect that developers may be getting early development kits at E3 in 2011.  Of course everything will be NDAed. 

[Mop it up]

The Wii2 is not coming out in 2011 and if it does I will literally eat my shoe, record it and post it here.

Sign me up for this. If Nintendo launches a new home system in 2011, I will personally eat MaryJane's other shoe. What would he do with one shoe anyway?

[Stogi]

Spak - It's not my personal opinion that they screwed up. It was supposed to be launched by now. It didn't; hence the screw up.

As for 2011's the last year for the Wii. I still don't think so.

I know the Wii will look incredibly outdated in Fall 2012 considering that Move and Kinect would have been out for two years, but having a Wii 2 and 3DS Fall 2011 is too cluttered.

The most logical place to put the Wii 2 launch is in early 2012 simply because they screwed themselves by not having the 3DS ready for this winter.

[Adrock]

The 3DS is going to have a huge Christmas that year and unnecessarily competing with your own hardware, for what ever reason, is idiotic.

Nintendo has competed with its own hardware everyday for the past 21 years. Since the Gameboy, Nintendo has always marketed and sold a handheld and home console at the same time. It's worked out especially well for them thus far. Nintendo even launched both Gamecube and Gameboy Advance in 2001 so there's precedence for Nintendo launching 2 brand new pieces of hardware in the same year.

[Stogi]

That's a good point.

I still think they'd rather have a 3DS/Wii christmas than a 3DS/Wii 2 one.

[Mop it up]

Nintendo needed to launch the GameCube and GBA though because the PS2 was out, the XBox was on the way, and the Nintendo 64 was selling poorly. At this point, they don't need to launch their next system in the same year as a new handheld because they are not desperate for a hot product like they were in 2001.

[MaryJane]

The 3DS would have only been out in Japan by now, and the U.S date probably would be the same, so for me the delay is no big deal. Though I suppose having it in actual consumers hands would boost its perception, their supply must have been really low if they didn't want a repeat of the Wii where it was constantly sold out, and constantly making headlines because of that fact. The American news media is going to be all over the 3DS next year. CNN has already mentioned it twice in passing and MSNBC once (that I've heard) when talking about other 3D devices, and CNN.com and the bottom of the screen news ticker on CNN even reported on the fact that it was delayed; 3DS will be instant news fodder.

Just as Sony and MS have upgraded their consoles with peripherals to extend their life, so Nintendo can do. If the Wii drops to $99 the cost of a Wii+3DS (at $250) is the same price as 360+Kinect. It may even be possible to do the Kinect thing with the 3DS's cameras and IR. I said this just a couple posts ago, but Nintendo HAS to be looking at connectivity between the two systems, especially in light of them wanting to extend the Wii's life cycle.

This is just wishful thinking, but what if the 3DS could connect to the Wii so they can share processing power? That would be pretty awesome.

@Mop
I'm 99.9999999999997% sure I won't be eating my shoe, but if I do I'll mail you the other one. 2011 is just way too soon to launch.

[Ian Sane]

Developers are not only figuring out what games to release on Wii, but how to make those games make better use of the 'waggle'.

Developers are ignoring the **** out of the Wii.  No one is making better use of waggle.  Even Nintendo isn't.  It's the same "replace a button press with a gesture" bullshit that Twilight Princess introduced.  Super Mario Galaxy 2 has it.  DKC Returns has it.  Most devs just release junk on the Wii if they release anything at all and it is not improving.  EA just took a Wii exclusive in NBA Jam and not only eventually turned it into a multiplatform release but the Wii version is actually the WORST version because it lacks the online play the others have.  And they've released the standard "boy our Wii sales are the shits" press release.
 
So there is no real developer familiarity with the Wii.  Those that make shovelware **** for the Wii have as much useful experience with it that, like with Move and Kinect, they might as well be starting fresh.  Hell Nintendo made that mistaken assumption with the Wii in the first place.  They acted like the similarity to the Gamecube would help attract support except that the Cube was a flop so no one developed for it.  There was no familiarity.
 
You know what devs are familiar with?  Unreal Engine 3.  The Wii doesn't have it and that is probably the number one reason why it gets jack **** for support.  The PS3 and Xbox 360 both have it, devs are familiar with it, and it makes it easier for them to port between the two systems.  The Wii isn't going to suddenly get it and turn everything around.
 

Also, how many 1st party games came out for the Wii this year? Why is 3 or 4 scarce next year scarce?

Because with third party support the way it is 3 or 4 first party games in a year pretty much means 3 or 4 decent games PERIOD for the year.  Even if there is a good third party game or two you could end up with maybe 6 games that are worth a ****... for the whole year.  The PS3 and X360 can give you that many good games in a month if it's around Christmas.  This is the whole N64 release schedule all over again where you wait months between releases.  That's not the sort of release schedule that lets you hold off on the next gen for a little longer.  That's a "the second we can replace this dying system, we're doing it" kind of release schedule.
 
How long until the rest of the world realizes the Wii has all these problems that core gamers noticed on day one?  That has always been the big threat.  I predict that when the Wii falls out of public favour it will fall HUGE and Nintendo needs to get the Wii 2 out there before that happens.

[Adrock]

Nintendo needed to launch the GameCube and GBA though because the PS2 was out, the XBox was on the way, and the Nintendo 64 was selling poorly. At this point, they don't need to launch their next system in the same year as a new handheld because they are not desperate for a hot product like they were in 2001.

Necessity and desperation have nothing to do with the fact that Nintendo would rather not miss the holiday season unless they absolutely have to. People spend more then spend significantly less in the following months, partly because they just spent so much and are allowing their poor butt-hurt bank accounts to sit on their proverbial inflatable donuts. Nintendo isn't in some dire need of meeting a Q4 2011 launch. However, releasing a product when consumers are far more willing to spend money obviously makes more sense than releasing a product after people have spent a lot of money. Nintendo should only pass on launching the successor to the Wii next year if they have literally no strong 1st or 3rd party title to launch with. They should though, even if it means 1 major 1st party killer app (i.e. Mario) and same day ports of 3rd party 360/PS3 games. It establishes the console as a hot, must-buy item while also taking sales away from the competition.

[Mop it up]

That's why holiday 2012 (or beyond) is when they'll launch their next home system. This gives the 3DS a comfy holiday by itself, and allows Zelda Skyward Sword to become a holiday hit too.

[Spak-Spang]

Apple has proven that people will buy a product whenever it is released if they want it.  They don't launch their new iphones at Christmas...they launch them mid year.  Why is that?  Because they know people want to buy new iphones.  The 3DS is compelling and people want to buy it...March will be fine and will sell the 3DS throughout the year.  Why is it hard to believe that Nintendo can't do that for the Wii 2.0 in March?

I know Christmas is the golden months of selling, but it is also the highest competition as well.  I also do not believe that Sony and Microsoft are looking at Move and Kinect to extend their life cycle much more.  Both hardware can be easily taken from the current generation into the next generation...specially Kinect which might get a boost in performance if the new console is built for better support of the device.  So to me Nintendo can't assume that MS and Sony won't launch a new system in 2012.  In fact, if I was Nintendo I would assume that they are targeting that holiday season...and if that was the case, I want my system out first...I don't want to compete with 2 other consoles on the market. 

[NWR_insanolord]

I don't think the Wii 2 is coming before fall 2012, but I'd be much more surprised at an early-2012 release than a late-2011 release. Furthermore, I think part of the reason we're seeing the 3DS early next year instead of in the holiday season of next year is that Nintendo wants more space between it and their planned holiday 2012 Wii 2 launch.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I don't think the Wii 2 is coming before fall 2012, but I'd be much more surprised at an early-2012 release than a late-2011 release. Furthermore, I think part of the reason we're seeing the 3DS early next year instead of in the holiday season of next year is that Nintendo wants more space between it and their planned holiday 2012 Wii 2 launch.

Wut? so now you think 3DS was gonna be delayed till Xmas 2011 because they missed the Xmas 2010 window? You really think Nintendo at some point thought that they might delay 3DS for a whole year just to put it in the Xmas window of the following year, but at the last minute opted against that to put more space between that and the Wii2?

[NWR_insanolord]

I'm saying Nintendo may have considered holding back on the 3DS until holiday 2011, not that they ever intended to do so. The DS is still selling, better than the Wii, and with better third party support. A holiday release gives you a higher profile and a better launch software lineup. Of course, that argument could also be used to support the idea of an early 2012 Wii 2 launch.

[Adrock]

That's why holiday 2012 (or beyond) is when they'll launch their next home system. This gives the 3DS a comfy holiday by itself, and allows Zelda Skyward Sword to become a holiday hit too.

3DS doesn't need a holiday by itself. I don't know where this line of thinking is coming from. As I've already said, Nintendo competes with itself everyday. Consumers are capable of buying both and have been doing so for the past 4 years.

Apple has proven that people will buy a product whenever it is released if they want it.  They don't launch their new iphones at Christmas...they launch them mid year.  Why is that?  Because they know people want to buy new iphones.

... and because AT&T let hundreds of thousands of people renew 6 months early just for the iPhone 4. Riddle me this, Batman, why do so many of the biggest games and most new hardware launches happen before the holiday season? Why did Nintendo's shares drop and investors groan when Nintendo announced 3DS was missing the holiday season?

The 3DS is compelling and people want to buy it...March will be fine and will sell the 3DS throughout the year.  Why is it hard to believe that Nintendo can't do that for the Wii 2.0 in March?

Wii 2 is a harder sell. Nintendo has to have something compelling enough to re-attract casual gamers because a prettier Wii Sports won't hack it. They need to convince core gamers that Wii 2 won't be a joke for them this time which includes convincing 3rd parties to care as much as they care about PS3/360. 3DS has none of these issues. It's getting tons of support and is the successor of the most popular handheld ever across all audiences. On top of that, Nintendo's competition in the handheld market is basically just Sony. That's like picking on the smelly kid in school.

In fact, if I was Nintendo I would assume that they are targeting that holiday season...and if that was the case, I want my system out first...I don't want to compete with 2 other consoles on the market.

Exactly. And why wouldn't Nintendo want a whole holiday season head start?

Of course, that argument could also be used to support the idea of an early 2012 Wii 2 launch.

How so? They miss the biggest rush of the year and would be launching after consumers have spent hundreds or thousands of dollars on not Wii 2.

[Mop it up]

That's why holiday 2012 (or beyond) is when they'll launch their next home system. This gives the 3DS a comfy holiday by itself, and allows Zelda Skyward Sword to become a holiday hit too.

3DS doesn't need a holiday by itself. I don't know where this line of thinking is coming from. As I've already said, Nintendo competes with itself everyday. Consumers are capable of buying both and have been doing so for the past 4 years.

To establish a relatively large userbase from the outset.