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Better CSFB Numbers

by Rick Powers - January 5, 2002, 12:14 pm EST
Source: CreditSuisse First Boston

CSFB has a new report out, and they explain the very clear mistake that they made in their last report ...

Below you'll find the latest CSFB report. Included is their explanation for the clearly WRONG "estimates" from the report we posted previously.

The data they received from NPD indeed did not include Walmart, and the report has been adjusted to reflect those sales. Sure enough, the numbers seem to pan out now.

The entire report is below. Anything in BOLD is our emphasis.


Interactive Entertainment

Weekly Sales Report 12/16 - 12/22

Summary

US sales of video games increased by an estimated 42% the third week of December versus the previous week. The projected Xbox hardware units sold in its sixth week was 165,000, for a total of 1.3 million. Approximately 3.6 million Xbox software units were sold during that time period, for a tie-ratio of 2.8. The total puts them on target for the top end guidance of 1.5 million units and even with the 1.3 million we had forecast with over a week of sales to go.

Gamecube sales rose from 148,000 units for the US last week to 259,000 units sold for a total of 1.2 million units. PS2 sold 596,000 units in the week, bringing the install base in the U.S. to over 6.6 million units. Game Boy Advance sold 639,000 units last week, bringing the install base to over 4.6 million units. Sales to date put each system on or ahead of pace to meet our year-end expectations.

Take-Two's (TTWO, $17.67, Buy) Grand Theft Auto 3 for the PS2 topped the charts again, selling approximately 343,000 units in its ninth full week for a total of 1.4 million since launch, even with the much anticipated launch of Square EA's Final Fantasy X. Take-Two's sales for the calendar quarter are up nearly 366% over the same period last year on the strength of GTA3 and the console versions of Max Payne.

Electronic Arts' (ERTS, $60.98, Strong Buy) U.S. sales of video game and PC products in the quarter to date have risen 41% over the same period last year. The strength has been across almost every product and platform, with Harry Potter, Bond, and Madden leading the way. We believe Electronic Arts could post EPS as high as $1.00, above our estimate of $0.86, when they report Jan. 30th.

Quarter to date THQ's (THQI, $49.59, Buy) U.S. sales are flat over last year which is roughly as expected given the company's tough year over year comps. Looking ahead THQ appears to have the strongest March quarter release schedule of any company we follow.

Activision's (ATVI, $26.35, Buy) Tony Hawk products have performed very well in the quarter to date filling the top seven slots in the company's videogame portfolio and generating over $114 million in U.S. sales in the quarter. In that period Activision's U.S. sales are up 25% year over year.

It is important to remember that in our opinion these numbers are very rough estimates of actual sales and year over year growth, and only represent the US portion of the companies' business. That said, we believe that the European market has seen similar strength given the popularity of GBA and the September PS2 price cut. We expect that the stocks should continue to perform well going into earnings.

Executive Summary

We are now able to use NPD's TRST data for video game sales in the U.S. and PC Data for PC game sales in the U.S. to estimate year over year growth rates for the companies we cover. The PC Data report lags, the NPD video game report by a week, so we are using like year over year periods to make our comparisons. There are several adjustments and estimations that have to be made to this raw data to develop these numbers, so they should not be seen as exact representations of a company's reported sales.

The Third Week of December

NPD's November monthly release indicated Nintendo's Gamecube coverage ratio was less than the other console platforms. Therefore, our weekly estimates for Gamecube sales were understating the actual totals. We have applied the new coverage ratio to previous weeks and the current weekly sales figures.

US sales of video games increased by an estimated 42% the third week of Decemberversus the previous week. The projected Xbox hardware units sold in its sixthweek was 165,000, for a total of 1.3 million total. Approximately 3.6 million Xbox software units were sold during that time period, for a tie-ratio of 2.8. The total puts them on target for the top end guidance of 1.5 million units and even with the 1.3 million we had forecast with more than one week left of sales.

Gamecube sales rose from 100,000 units for the US last week to 148,000 units sold. PS2 sold 415,000 units in the week, bringing the install base in the U.S. to over 6 million units. Game Boy Advance sold 439,000 units last week, bringing the install base to nearly 4 million units. Sales to date put each

system on or ahead of pace to meet our year-end expectations.

Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto 3 for the PS2 topped the charts again, selling approximately 343,000 units in its ninth full week for a total of 1.4 million since launch, even with the much-anticipated launch of Square EA's Final Fantasy X. Take-Two's sales for the calendar quarter are up nearly 366% over the same period last year on the strength of GTA3.

Sell through to date for the quarter is encouraging. The data in the chart above combine October and November monthly retail data for PC software sales and VG sales, and weekly totals for the first three weeks of December. Since there is a timing difference between the PC software sales release and the VG sell through release, the data above compares total October and November data on video games and PC sales and the first two weeks of December for PC games, with three weeks of December for video games.

Weekly sell through on a company specific basis shows strong results for each of the companies we cover. We expect that next week's data will show a pretty significant decline as we enter a more normal post-Christmas selling season.

Hardware sales were up week-to-week. PlayStation 2 US hardware sales were up 44%, with Game Boy Advance up nearly 46% versus week ago levels. This places both PS2 and GBA on track to reach the install bases expected by year-end.

Sell through data for the quarter to date follows in Exhibits 6 through 13. The numbers in the exhibits are projected totals for each software title. Thetotals include data through December 22nd.

Activision's Top 10 list is dominated by Tony Hawk's Pro Skater franchise, which holds the top 7 games and the #10 spot. The Spiderman brand holds spot 9, with newcomer Shaun Palmer Snowboarder jumping to 8. Sales of Shaun Palmer Snowboarder rose from over 21,000 units last week to over 27,000 units sold in its sixth week on the shelves.

Electronic Arts' Top 10 list is similarly dominated by their most popular franchise, Madden 2002. Harry Potter for the Game Boy Advance and the Game Boy Color solidified their Top 10 positions after the sixth straight week of impressive sales. If these were worldwide numbers, one of the top 10 spots may

have gone to EA's FIFA Soccer product, which has shown up in the charts both in Europe and Japan.

THQ's Monsters, Inc. games continue to sell well, with over 538,000 GBC and GBA units sold. WWF: Just Bring It for the PS2 has sold a projected 440,000 units in its first five weeks.

It is difficult to understate what a title like Grand Theft Auto 3 means to a company like Take-2. The game has sold over 1.4 million units in the U.S. and has reportedly sold as well in Europe. The recent releases of Max Payne on the PS2 and the Xbox have started strong, with nearly 174,000 and 92,000 units sold respectively. The Xbox version was the second best selling game for the week on the system behind Halo.

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