Topic: Game sales declining because games are boring

[KDR_11k]

I think we all read about Iwata's statement that it's not the economy that's hurting the games industry but lackluster products.


Now we've got an analysis that used game sales are impacting new game sales.


Those two may sound unrelated but think about it:


For a used game sale to happen someone must have traded his new game in. Game Stop pays notoriously badly for trade ins so the person who sold his game saw very little value in keeping the game compared to selling it for a little money. The bulk of sales for most games happens within the first month, to significantly impact new game sales the used sales would have to happen during that first month.


Now think about it, what does it mean when a game lost so much value within less than a month that selling it for Game Stop's crappy prices is better than keeping it? Perhaps the game gets boring fairly quickly?

[Ymeegod]

Maybe low replay value has stuff to do with it as well.

As a kid, I logged alot of hours into one game simply because I couldn't afford more, wished there was a used game market back then but you were lucky to have more than 10+ games even at video rental stores.  Nowadays, EB games is everywhere's plus you have the net and just about everyone can use it now. 

[oohhboy]

Coincidence doesn't mean correlation.

This generation is reaching it's end game so I wouldn't be surprise there would be a drop at the same time. The economy would have also reduced disposable income.

Used game sales could has appeared to increased due to the effectiveness of Gamestop to capture this market, as before, it used to disappear in to pawn shops, perviously unaccountable. The now massive back catalogue of current games is also being traded over and over again.

Note the lack of comparable units. New sales are numerated by units, while used is in dollars.

The drop of in sales of games monthly isn't even viewed correctly. A majority of publishers cause the large monthly decline by pushing big first day/month sales in the view that they want people to pay full price and to do it now. No surprise sales dropped off a cliff after the first month.

This analyst group is full of ****. EA can also suck a fat one with their plans.

[Plugabugz]

Lets make some reasonable assumptions:
Used game sales are affecting new game sales.
Economic recession hits.
In the immediate term people are more interested in spending less (where games are cheaper, used) than selling off their consoles for cash.
Used game sales go up.

It's almost a lose-lose scenario because publishers can charge £20 for new games yet a used market would still exist simply because the process of opening the shrink wrap makes it used.

If people like EA don't like used games then maybe they should focus on teaming up with Amazon to make a EA Market where they can exclusively ship used games for future EA titles. That way they get more revenue and used games stil exist.

[Morari]

Most games nowadays aren't worth playing. Even fewer are worth playing through more than once. All games nowadays are ridiculously overpriced.

[Ian Sane]

No company likes second hand sales because it provides a legal outlet for someone to buy their product without them getting a cut.  This applies for almost any industry but videogames is just one where used sales are more common.  So they blame used sales on all sorts of "lost" revenue to gain sympathy and try to work to get used sales outlawed.  They're full of crap and they know it.  Surely not every used sale would have been a new sale if used sales were not available, but they act like that's the case.

Make games people want to play and sell them at a price they are willing to pay.  I think the general public just does not regard most videogames as worth full price.  So the publishers have to adapt to that.  That's how a free market works.  If Gamestop is so damaging then why not just cut that chain out?  They sell new games as well and every game publisher provides them with product.  So what if Gamestop stores didn't carry new EA games or new Nintendo games?  I think that would affect Gamestop more than anyone else since stores like Wal-Mart and Best Buy would still have new copies of these games.  There is no point having a partnership with a business that is ruining you, so I figure no one really thinks that Gamestop is ruining them.  But it denies fault to stockholders to act like they do and it puts forth the suggestion of outlawing used game sales.

The thing is the model for not offering used sales exists in digital distribution.  Nobody is selling used copies of WiiWare or VC games.  So in the future I think used sales will become less and less of an issue.  And even if someone buys a used copy they can always end up buying DLC, so you still earn revenue.  In fact one physical copy of a game could end up generating multiple duplicate sales of the same DLC.  There is your cut of used sales right there.

[Fatty The Hutt]

In fact one physical copy of a game could end up generating multiple duplicate sales of the same DLC.  There is your cut of used sales right there.

This is an excellent point and one I hadn't thought of before. I haven't seen it touted on other message boards, either. Good job!
 
I think the cycle of buy-new-trade-in-soon-after has little if anything to do with whether modern games are "good" or "worse than older games" or "have no replay value" or whatnot. I think it has everything to do with the culture of the new. By this I mean, popular society is always looking for the next big thing. The movies focus heavily on opening weekend; it is rare these days for a film to have "legs" and play for month at a time, like they used to. Cellphones are disposable, so are PC's. These are but a few obvious examples. Similarly, the masses want the newest, coolest video game. Gamestop preys on that cultural mentality by offering their best trade-in deals for the most recent and popular games. Its therefore a repeating cycle.

[Ian Sane]

The movies focus heavily on opening weekend; it is rare these days for a film to have "legs" and play for month at a time, like they used to.

I always figured this was more related to the switch from VHS to DVD.  It's all about buying DVDs but with VHS is more about renting the video.  Buying VHS movies wasn't as common as buying DVDs today.  So at the time it seemed like they kept a film in theatre as long as possible because that was the main source of revenue and they wanted to discourage someone from waiting until it was out on video.  But these days DVD sales are a big part of the revenue so they don't want to wait as long to get it out.  The value of keeping a film doing okay in theatre isn't worth as much as the DVD sales, which benefit from the film's hype still being strong.
 
I agree with you about cellphones and PCs and how people are much more willing these days to replace things quickly.  Frankly I think that's going to cause some big problems in the future as too many people are too wasteful and lack financial responsibility but that's of a much bigger scope than videogames.
 
The real problem with the Gamestop model is that people are stupid.  I buy used from a local chain where the used price is often a good $20 off the new price.  It's never less than $10 unless the new price is $10 and then the used is about $7.  But Gamestop lops off 5 bucks.  5 bucks is nothing.  I would think that getting a game in perfect condition is worth 5 bucks.  Hell if you actually go to a different store you can often find the same game NEW for 4 or 5 bucks off.  Gamestop also provides chump change for trade-ins.  Their whole business model relies on people being morons.  It's hard to truly think of way to combat something like that because, logically, it shouldn't exist in the first place.  I think cutting Gamestop out is the way to go, if this is actually a real problem and not a manufactured one.

[ThePerm]

Not to mention scratch resistant technology has improved to the extant that i'm less worried about my dvd being so scratched when i rent, or used-buy that it won't work.

I have always been the collector type, so i would rather have a huge library of media than give it away. Philosophically, i think it would be better if i wasn't the only purchaser, and that i shared what i had with a larger group. Something like that in the long run would hurt the crap out of the industry. If i can share something with someone they can share something with me, there would be no duplicates and no waste.

[KDR_11k]

Gamestop also provides chump change for trade-ins.

That to me is the key point here, the trade-in values are low yet people do it anyway, that suggests the game depreciates extremely quickly in their minds (possibly because the hype wore off?). Iwata said we shouldn't blame the recession but bad games for the decreasing sales and I think this is a symptom that supports his statement. People misinterpreted that as referring to shovelware or the Wii when he really talked about all games. Review scores are rising like mad yet I find many new games less and less interesting.