You'd be better off going with this:
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/forums/index.php?topic=29829.msg562980#msg562980In fact, I'd guess that every player left in the game who could be active at night has something saying they were, or at least were paying some kind of attention to the game relatively late in the day, with the exception of Pale and UncleBob.
Pale logged in last night, during the night, in fact, but never posted anything. I sent UncleBob a PM last night at 10:00PMish EST, and he didn't reply until something like three in the morning, though. I don't know if that solidifies anything or not, but it's about as credible as what else we've got here.
With this info, I'm going to have to un-vote Pale seriously this time.
I'll want more information, if we can get it, but he's seriously the current "Best Lead" I've got, literally with all the logic and reasoning out in the open. You're welcome to agree with it, you're welcome to point things out yourself, or contradict it, or whatever you choose, but this is a decision you'd make not based on "trust" because I know there's a few of you, that when it comes to me and mafia, you just don't do it. If it's wrong, and I don't have information tonight about why it's wrong, I'll take the blame. If it's not wrong, though, please, for once, give me some credit!