I typed this up last night but my internet gave out. Fortunately, I saved a copy!
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What console out there is being "pushed forward" by hardcore gamers and their high tie-in ratios? That's actually BAD according to some...
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The report further adds that the Xbox 360's high software attach rate is “a damning commentary on the limited hardware installed base, most of whom are hard-core gamers.” The analysts add that what is actually needed by Microsoft for its latest console, as well as by third party software publishers, is “quicker adoption of hardware and a rapidly growing installed base on which to sell progressively more game units,” rather than just more games sold per existing Xbox 360 owner.
But that's the beauty of it, see? It's the long tail at work! Sure those many non-gamers and casuals NATURALLY have a lower software tie-in rate. But according to the long tail, all of those aggregated small sales cumulatively overcome the minorities large purchases.
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In these distributions a high-frequency or high-amplitude population is followed by a low-frequency or low-amplitude population which gradually "tails off." In many cases the infrequent or low-amplitude events—the long tail, represented here by the yellow portion of the graph—can cumulatively outnumber or outweigh the initial portion of the graph, such that in aggregate they comprise the majority.
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An Amazon employee described the Long Tail as follows: "We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday."[5] In the same sense, the user-edited internet encyclopedia Wikipedia has many low popularity articles that, collectively, create a higher quantity of demand than a limited number of mainstream articles found in a conventional encyclopedia such as the Encyclopædia Britannica.
You know, I bet the PS2 had a real low tie-in ratio in the end...
Look, gamers, like you an' me, we're awesome. AWESOME. But we're just a handful of consumers out of many. And as Nintendo fans, we should have learnt humility by now: our small collection of fanbois is dwarfed by the vast majority of "others" out there, including other hardcore gamers, casual gamers, mainstream gamers, niche gamers, PC gamers, and moms buying systems for their 7 year olds with a minimum of research done beforehand.
And this population, in turn, is dwarfed by non-gamers, lapsed gamers, middle-aged people, and other sorts who've never played videogames before. Oh, and GIRLS. Yeah, there are like, as many girls as guys out there... funny huh?
You and me, we'll buy the next Zelda and Mario. But these non-gamers? They'll cumulatively have so much more purchasing power than us, and though blockbusters from their crowd will become rarer as the market matures, the cumulated sales of their games will overwhelm our strong but few blockbusters and they'll start driving change in the industry.
Already we can see how it's non-gamers, not gamers, who are driving changes. The Wii has non-gaming functions (news, weather, internet, photos, etc.), the PS2 played movies (argh... my fanboi-ness hates me for saying that) and the DS has a touch screen and microphone that enabled Nintendogs and Brain Age. Oh, and the wiimote was made with non-gamers in mind.
Oh... and Miyamoto isn't a tech guy, he didn't play D n D or nuttin' like that. He's not a programmer... he's a trained artist, a gardener, an outsider. I personally suspect that the next breakout game designer won't be deeply steeped in gaming lore, (in my experience, a lot of gamers steeped in their hobby are... highly dependent on things that have come before) but someone who can freshen things up and introduce new directions and see things in a new light, free of the conventions that we're asll so familiar with.
So.... uh... sorry. I rambled on. I also stopped for like an hour to help my roomie with HW... eheh...
So, in conclusion, don't be stuck in the blockbuster mentality when looking at the big picture, and us hardcore gamers already have been marginalized in the advances we've been seeing from Nintendo, influences that in the DS and Wii are seen in the touch screen and wiimote.
Basically, let me try to say this another way...
I want more epic games from Nintendo. And I'm pretty sure we'll get 'em, aren't you? It's just that a huge paradigm shift like the wiimote isn't overnight. How long did it take third parties to get their camera system down when they switched to 3D with the N64? How long will it take them to utilize the wiimote correctly after Nintendo nailed it with Wii sports? Shorter I hope, because I can't wait to carve snow by tilting my nunchuck in SSX Blur, I can't wait to use the wiimote as a state switch for my attacks in No More Heroes, and I can't wait for an Iron Chef game that is a seamless course of minigames instead of pre-dictated and chopped up and graded ever 10 seconds. And I can't wait to see what the next Zelda will be, because it certainly won't be the "Zelda-as-we-know-it," remember?
So traditional games aren't the problem, really. It's just a matter of time until developers ramp up.
The problem is what happens ASIDE from that. The wiimote was meant for more than just revolutionizing games, it was meant for revolutionizing the game market. Nintendo's said that if they sold more than GameCube, and made money,
but failed to expand the market, that they'd have failed. They set the rubric for themselves at the success of bringing in new people, people who won't necessarily buy as many games as us, but people who, according to their numbers and the long tail effect,
matter just as much or even more than we do profitwise.
People who are different, but by virtue of their differences can encourage us to grow beyond ourselves and can encourage videogames to grow beyond what they are now. Yes, they're different, yes, they're new, yes, they don't want the same things we do. But they are asd much a fabric of this world as we are, and they deserve the same attention any of us does, and they just want different things is all. And whether they buy those different things 30,000 copies at a time, or 100,000, it all adds up.
I think I have about 14 Wii games on me (my life savings! &< /cry), but my Mom plays Bejeweled on her cell phone every night for hours before sleeping, she plays it so we can hear the beeping from across the house, and she deserves games just as much as I do. She deserved it when she kicked my butt in Dr. Mario, and she deserves it now.
~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com 
Topic: Wii stronger then the first Xbox ? (Read 71104 times)
