Topic: What could happen (a prediction of the next generation)

[AdvancedGamer]

Well we've all read and disscussed on the topics of what Nintendo should do to be Number 1 on the next-generation system. Well they better take note or it could be their doom. Why? Because Sony and Microsoft will be taking note of everything we say and everything their fans are saying to further better their next-gen system. You must realize that everything we are saying, some other ps fanboy is suggestiong on a ps2 forum (backwords compatibility, more good ps2 games than just GTA) if Nintendo is not smart and they do not listen to what we (the consumer) want, than they have no chance against Sony and Microsoft in the next round (That's if Sony and Microsoft listen to their customers too) So as you can see their are many possibilities of what can happen in the next round. My advice to Nintendo is... you may have got away this time, with lacking off in the beggining of the console war, but next time you might not be so lucky. Listen to your fans and go along with what they say, they know what they want, they will help and support you if you listen to them.

[ThePerm]

Nintendo frequents these boards too...and so does Mr. Dyack. Heres what i predict will happen.

Because the focus on graphics will be less important and it will be alot easier to produce beautiful graphics games will look tons better. The difference between the graphics on one console and the graphics on the other console will be indistinguishable. They'll all be able to calculate realistic, lighting, radiostiy, physics and all the bells and whistles. What will really become the focus is great gameplay.

Well hopefully, there are obviously alot of companies that make crappy games, and really don't care about quality. These companies hopefully will be put out of business by better companies. This will seriously hurt what Sony has created. You see Sony has alowed lots of third parties to really flurish. They release crap in high volume against other third parties that release crap. What has happened is that profits between those companies have dwindled dramastically. There is a "bloodbath" as it has been put. The sad part is that blood bath has spilled onto other consoles andi cant help but notice when i goto a rental store on any game system you will see more licensed, cheap, b.s crap on the shelf then great games. You always here reports of Midway, Acclaim, shudders Sega(the only one known for volume of quality) talking about how they arte losing money and are trying to ifnd ways tro save it. These ideas include only supporting particular consoles, shrinking devlopment teams, hoping for merger. The real problem with these companies is that they're havign trouble competing with other companies. They cant compete against EA, Activision, Nintendo, Take Two(they own dma..err rockstar..whatever), or Atari(hey wow that Infogrames is starting to make industrial waves), and a few others. These people are sales spounges. Theyve managed to either have had enough hardcore fans, have great advertising, or have a winning seasonal release philosophy(hrm sports games). In saleson all consoels Sega gets its ass kicked in sportsgames...likewise midway, and acclaim. Ea just simply is their daddy.

anyways my predictions Sega will make a comeback(software sales wise). Sony may perhaps be dethroned if Nintendo launches against them(the hardcore fan factor really comes into play...sure at launch bunches of casual gamers will want a ps3 because its high tech...but there are alot of Nintendo fans who want a launch mario..if Nintendo even beat sony in the war for a week then you know its over for Sony) Kiddy or not if Nintendo ever gets sales higher then Sony(it does traditionally during launch...there were mroe gamecubes sold at launch then ps2s...its just alot of people had ps2 a year later that really prevented a big upheaval) then the tides will turn and yuou know where the press will go. Microsoft is the x-factor. We know Nintendo intends to launch against Sony with a blitz of agressiveness. But what about Microsoft. Its too early to tell. My theory is if Sony is knocked to number 2(next generationwise) then microsoft will be pushed to a distant 3. or Sony will be toppled by Microsoft. Or if Sony really wants to keep its empire it will try again for number 1 and M$ will quit.

[rodtod]

To go with what The Perm said about the hardcore fan factor, chances are the next generation is going to be pretty expensive for the consumer. Now who is it who's most likely to buy expensive games, the hardcore gamer, or the casual? I rest my case.

[Nintendo Gamecube]

An interesting theory you have, but you are missing the Sony-Factor, heh. Sony will not just sit on their butts and wait for Nintendo to take their slot (or X-Box for that case). They did not just become number 1 out of luck (or some people do think so), but they worked for it. Knew how to market and climbed their way to number 1. Afterall, they had to dethrone Nintnedo's hold over the console industry during the PS1 and N64 saga.

I certianly think both Microsoft and Nintendo will take a big chunk out of Sony's hold on consoles, but I think Sony is already prepared for that. They had the lucky 1 year head start, which has pretty much won them in this generation, but they are loosing that factor next year. Sony likely has something big prepared, just as Microsoft and Nintendo do too. It'll all come down to who's is bigger.

Then comes the market-factor. We both know Microsoft is willing to throw the big $$$bucks$$$ to get advertising, buying companies, etc. Sony is also extremely aggressive with advertising. You can expect them to be head-to-head with X-Box in marketing campaigns, etc. Nintendo needs to do the same. We know thye are a conservative company, but they have to be willing to loose some money for marketing during launch. (the money will ultimately come back if they become the number 1 console). I don't know how much I can stress for Nintendo to market, market, market!!!

But any ways...I still think most of the mainstream games will stick with Sony, some will split between Microsoft and Nintendo, while some buy all 3. Microsoft is ready to make its leap at Sony's title just as Nintendo. You can probably expect it to be a 2 on 1 for a while, until the market share evens to about 40%, 30%, 30%.

[ThePerm]

well what you don't understand that hardcore nintendo fanboys in volume are going to show up in larger numbers then any casual sony fan would. Most mainstream gamers will simply wait a few days before they buy anything. But then you have hardcore sony gamers and hardcore nintendo gamers. These are people willing to stay the night at a store to get a video game console..have collectables all over their room...and are just crazy fans. What im saying is that on average Nintendo's launches are actually bigger then Sony's. There is more people that are willing to rush to the store and buy a console immediately after its release on Nintendo's side. Christmas 2004 or 2005 its going to be really competitive. What would be really interesting to see is if they decide to put their launch on the same release date. Flocks of gamers would be ready for a big launch...imagine Sony gamers camoping outside waiting for their ps3 and Nintendo gamrers waiting for N5. Also imagien all those Nintendo gamers with GBASPs and maybe those sony gamers with psp(well i was going to go on the analogy that Nintendo gamers will get to once again play games while their waiting to play games in the lines..but with psp that changes things..but when psp cpmes out and its price are factors that might determine how the line culture will be. Anyways....it could be a second coming...if Sony gets too arrogant it could get screwed.

[Nintendo Gamecube]

Heh, PSP vs. GBA SP, that is just funny. Who knows, maybe Microsoft is going to jump in with its own portable player. And then each flock of people will be showing off thier system while waiting in line...haha. And you'd expect all the hardcore gamers to have it.

Although what happens now-a-days is that people order it online, such as ebworld, and it is shipped the first day. But usually they rip you off by forcing you to get all these deals.

[Ian Sane]

"What would be really interesting to see is if they decide to put their launch on the same release date. Flocks of gamers would be ready for a big launch...imagine Sony gamers camoping outside waiting for their ps3 and Nintendo gamrers waiting for N5."

That sounds scary actually.  All it takes is a couple of fanboys to start some console bashing and you could get a huge fight.

However one advantage to releasing them on the exact same date is that if Sony pulls a PS2 again and doesn't release enough PS3's then those people might buy N5's instead of waiting for more shipments.  That could really help Nintendo.  Sony screwed up royally with the PS2 launch and if they had any competition at the time they would have been f*cked.  If they made the same mistake twice it could cost them their huge lead.

[Chode2234]

Is it just me or isn't it Nintendo that usually has shortages of products at the stores.  I remember not being able to find particular games at retailers because Nintendo didn't send them enough.  I think this is something Nintendo really needs to fix too.  Have enough for us all at the store.

[ThePerm]

against Sony they will prolly ramp up production. I usually never have trouble finding things..it seems in rural areas though theres a real problem gettign stuff.  

[Chode2234]

Do you guys really think the fanboys can carry Nintendo to number 1 at launch?

perhaps, maybe if they blow sony and MS out of the water the first couple weeks and get the momentum to dramatically shift in favor of Nintedo, but I remain skeptical.

What do you guys think will be the role of the fanboy at launch and in the next gen.  Can we/they be a force of good?

[BigJim]

Fanboys are the early adopters, but early adopters only make up a fraction of the total # of sales. The highest sales usually don't come until after the first year of the system's life.

Nintendo HAS been marketing to their fans, and look at where they are. People are constantly complaining on these forums and elsewhere that they need to expand their reach and lure other gamers in.

[ThePerm]

well the idea is if the rabid fans make the numbers higher at launch it may shift the industry ...third party support would shift and gamers who havnt gotten a new system we'll hear Nintendo has been winning. Also, who knows if too human is a launch title then it will really
push the system to the mature market..and have Halo legs.

[Chode2234]

The idea might work...  My real concern and questions is are there enough of us to make a dent in sales.  I know I will be out there day 1, and so will most of you guys, but will we really be able to have an impact on the market?

Food for thought I guess.