Topic: The DS is SO going to outsell the PS3...

[Artimus]

Quote
The Nikkei Keizai Shimbun paper reports today that due to component shortages, Sony will only have 80,000 PS3 units ready for Japanese launch instead of the originally planned 100,000 units. That's a 20% cut.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/742/742510p1.html

It sounds better than it is, though. The strategy makes perfect sense and it's brilliant. You make sure no one can buy a PS3 so everyone still wants it. That way no matter what happens you can say "Once we get more systems it'll sell billions of copies!" Genius.

[nitsu niflheim]

PS3 will finally see a release in 2012, and even then it will only see a worldwide release of 12,000 units.

[Smash_Brother]

I think that, after enough time, people will stop caring about getting one.

Also, I think you mean "Wii will outsell PS3", right?

[nitsu niflheim]

I think a lot of people stopped caring when the prices were announced.

[Requiem]

No, I think he meant the DS since 80,000 units isn't very much at all.

[couchmonkey]

Oh man, not even 100,000 for Japan?  Sony should just invite everyone who wants a PS3 to come over to HQ for a complementary kick in the crotch.  Not only is Sony going to miss the 2 million it promised for this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it failed to even reach 1 million.

[Spak-Spang]

It is true that you do not want the demand of your product to diminish over the short launch period of the product.  But as a business you also do not want to see your product's demand not met at all.  For any time demand isn't met you are LOSING MONEY.

Sony doesn't want that...and you run the risk of somebody deciding to buy a substitute product instead of waiting.

This is sad news for Sony indeed.  Why wouldn't they cut the amount going to the US and boost Japan?  That seems more logical.

 

[Ceric]

Nintendo just needs to release a fresh batch of DS's in Japan on the 17th and be done with it.  That would be hilarious.  "DS and PS3 Sold out in Japan"

Spak-Spang:  One word: 360.

[ShyGuy]

Shoot, PS2 will outsell PS3 in the next couple months...

[couchmonkey]

You're right Ceric, that's why they're still pushing America, and I think it's amazing how Sony is so focused on Microsoft when Nintendo is right there, ready to steal Japan.

I think even the naysayers believe that if Wii can succeed anywhere, it's Japan - and Sony is practically leaving the door wide open.  If Microsoft is washed-up in Japan and Sony only offers 100-200 thousand units, then where does that leave Wii?  Believe it or not, Wii is going to be the number one next-gen console in Japan at the end of 2006.

The irony is that if Wii became a big hit in Japan, it could take away Sony's biggest advantage against Microsoft: tons of exclusive Japanese third-party support.  If the PS3 lineup is practically the same as the 360 lineup (give or take some first and second party exclusives) then why would you choose the more expensive PS3?  Blu-ray?

[Hocotate]

lol *waits for the launch to be pushed back, coupled with another 20% taken away from the 80,000*

[Spak-Spang]

CouchMonkey:  You know you are right.  It is a huge threat.  Here is what Sony is thinking though.  They obviously have a system better than Nintendo, and as such they can win back Japan once more units are available.  

Unfortunately, it doesn't really work like that.  Once Nintendo has a couple million units sold in Japan, a successful user base is already installed for third party developers.  And Nintendo still has big guns to launch to help build the user base for Wii even larger in Japan.

We already saw that the Nintendo games can boost hardware sales when we saw the success of the DS because of game releases such as: Brain Age Training, Nintendogs, New Super Mario Bros, Pokemon.  And now the DS is in an unbeatable commanding led in Japan.

What happens, when Nintendo can continue large supplies of Wii hardware and starts launching great software that attracts more gamers?

Sony loses its market it dominated.  

Now lets go to the US with Microsoft.  Xbox 360 and PS3 despite what Sony wants you to believe are not that drastically different.  In fact, I am pretty sure you can do the exact same games on either system with minor or no noticable differences.  That does not build confidence for the consumer when you ask them to spend $100-200 more for your system.  Not only does Xbox cost cheaper it has more games already, and has a substitute product for major game that the PS3 has available.  The casual gamer will not see a difference between the two.  And the hardcore gaming crowd will support Sony for those Japanese exclusives that Sony always gets...except that they aren't getting them as much anymore...because they lost Japan.  Huh.

So, although this doesn't paint absolute despair for Sony, because this is only one possible scenario for the future...but even the possibility of this happening should scare Sony.

 

[KDR_11k]

If MS really works hard and Blue Dragon works out to be somewhat successful they might be able to outsell the PS3 in Japan. Now that would be ridiculous.

[couchmonkey]

Oh yeah, that would be sweet.  I honestly think Nintendo is in position to take Japan.  DS is ridiculously huge there, the biggest franchises all belong to Nintendo (Brain Age, Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon) and Nintendo seems to have a sustained list of new games ready to go after the new year.

On an interesting note: Sony recently cut its forecasted PSP shipments by 3 million, I think I posted a link earlier.  At about the same time Nintendo increased forecasted DS shipments by 3 million.  I think it's kind of cool how you can actually see the marketshare being taken away.  "No! Bad Sony! Give me the marketshare."

[Artimus]

Blue Dragon is going to have little impact. If it manages more than 2 weeks of 360 sales over 10,000 I'd be surprised. But to have any effect it would need to make 360 sales rise above 20,000 for over a month. Not happening.

[Kairon]

Blue Dragon seems cool, but with only a 150k 360 install base in Japan...

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com