Topic: Analyst Predicts PS3 Lead, Next-Gen PSP

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Gamers can barely predict what will happen within the industry between today and tomorrow, let alone sound respectable and forecasting two years from. That's the job of analysts at Piper Jaffray, though, and their latest release includes such whoppers as: PlayStation 3 leading in hardware sales and a new PSP model next year.
Piper Jaffray says by 2008, PlayStation 3 will have grabbed 45-50% of the hardware market, with Xbox 360 barely trailing at 35-40% and Nintendo dropping to a minority share of 15%. In fact, they predict Revolution adoption to move at an almost snail's pace, with only half a million units next year, two in 2007 and three in 2008.

The race between Sony and Microsoft, however, will far more competitive, but Piper Jaffray eventually predicts PlayStation 3 will pull ahead of the pack. In the end, though, the competition between the three systems will produce an impressive 30% total increase in consumer purchases for videogame systems.

Almost more interesting, however, is the speculation Sony will release a "next-generation PSP" with an audio/video hard-drive next summer. A remodled version of the PSP with two analog sticks would be fantastic, but Sony purposely cutting into the lucrative sales of memory sticks doesn't really jive with a philosophy based on the bottom line.

They're the ones paid to be analysts, though, not me, so we'll see how Piper Jaffray's predictions roll out over the next few years.




1up.com

[KDR_11k]

So another one of those idiotic "OMG Nintendo si teh DOOM3D!" predictions? I doubt they have any idea how the market will react to the rod.

[Ian Sane]

Releasing a new PSP so soon would be such a dumb move.  If you want to piss customers off abandoning hardware a year in is a pretty easy way to do it.  Of course charging an insane amount of money and releasing nothing but movies for the PSP was a pretty dumb idea too.  I think Sony just doesn't know what they're doing in the portable market.  The initial DS lineup was so poor Sony had the perfect chance to knock Nintendo of their perch and they screwed it up.  I'm glad they screwed it up but they had such an opportunity.

I'd say the predictions regarding the next gen are pretty likely.  Sony and MS are pretty much doing the same thing so I figure they'll finish as they did before.  Sony hasn't done anything really dumb yet to allow someone to overtake them and MS hasn't done anything exceptional to overtake them.  Before we knew what the controller was I would have considered Nintendo to be the wildcard that could do anything.  Now that I've seen the remote I'd say it will be the usual "smaller marketshare each generation" routine for Nintendo.  At best they're going to be niche player, still profitable but not a threat to the other competitors at all.

Only three million by 2008 though is REALLY niche.  Looks like this analyst doesn't think non-gamers are going to go for it.  I figure Nintendo would at least be able to sell out all of their launch units which probably will be at least a million.  We still need to see the games though.  If Nintendo has something really awesome in the works for the launch, that sells the concept like Super Mario 64 sold the analog stick, then it could be totally different.  I think the hardware specs and exactly what is included with every controller are very important factors as well.

We should have more information first but these are pretty safe estimates.  So far neither company, in my mind, has made any moves that would change the current rankings.

Would Nintendo be able to make a profit if the Rev sold as poorly as suggested here?

[Spak-Spang]

Here is the thing that pisses me off the most about analysists and really the whole hardcore gamer stuff.

Nintendo's Revolution system is going to apply to hardcore gamers more than anybody thinks.  Hardcore gamers are gamers that play everything and want to experience gaming to the fullest.  They are the people that will master every character in a fighting game completely....they are the people that can play Dance, Dance Revolution with their eyes closed...they are the people that have beaten games with perfect 100%s...and they are people that are going to buy a Revolution for a new way of playing games.

The hardware for the Nintendo Revolution will be bought by hardcore gamers...really for 2 reasons.  Playing old classic games over again, and having them stored in a better format and possibly better graphics...and to experience the new control method.  

The question then is does Nintendo get the casual gaming crowd.  In America I say I doubt it...but in Japan and around the world I actually think they might.  Let's face it most of the nongamer games Nintendo releases will be restricted to Japan and other markets...and the US will be getting the more mainstream varities of such games.  However, the Market Nintendo will most likely be able to capture again with this controller is elementary school and junior school gamers.  Why???  Parents will look at the controller and system as an easier device to use.  Developers will be able to make games that interact with younger gamers much MUCH better than anything we ever had this generation.  

The average joe gamer will still go with Sony or Microsoft, but those gamers are easy to sway with one or two must have games.  Look how quickly they jumped to Microsoft for Halo.  

This analyst is just wrong and doesn't know what he is talking about.  How do I know this...he took the safe bet.  He predicted the most basic assumptions for a new generation without little thought or care into the wildcards and vast variables this new generation places within the market.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Yeah that's what I was thinking, having only 3 million sell in two years just sounds too low, maybe just in the US and Europe, but you have to think that in Japan alone more than 3 million will get sold.

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Would Nintendo be able to make a profit if the Rev sold as poorly as suggested here?

Depends on whether Handheld sales are strong or not, because ninty isn't likely to lose money on the Revo hardware.

[Artimus]

Totally unrealistic numbers. Launch is pretty much a guarenteed sell. And Nintendo fans and lower-price buyers alone would manage several million.

[Spak-Spang]

That what really bothers me.  It seems like these analysts don't really study the market well.

They look at the company's goals and markets they approach and then look at the markets they are doing well in and decide from there how the future will go, using basic predictions on the future of the market.

For instance.  Xbox and PS3's target market is the gaming audience between 18-30.  Well that market is going to grow according to trends of the market place...so obviously those 2 companies will grow and fight it out for market place.  Since Playstation already has an incredibly large lead this generation its a safe assumption next generation will be the same.

Nintendo target markets all ages.  Well the younger gaming audience isn't growing at the same pace as the older market, and you lose some more market when they get older and move into the Xbox and PS3 market place.

So obviously Nintendo will lose market share next generation.

This doesn't take into account several factors:

1)Core Nintendo fans of all ages.
2)Parents seeking safer gaming content for their kids.
3)New market possibilities
4)New Controller
5)Nintendo's Retro gaming crowd that can bring older gamers back.

This analysis is so flawed its stupid...and biased.

[Djunknown]

First off, I have to comment on the irony of 1up.com. They are the most anti-nintendo multiplatform site that I've seen.  Yet their domain name is a mushroom with green polka-dots that enabled one pixelated plumber who's responsible for their jobs.

1up.com: Where we want to Nintendo to die and go away, though we won't come out and say it but we'll jab at them every chance we get site.

1up.com: As fair and balanced as Fox news. 'Nuff said.

On topic: I just can't stand these analysts anymore. Maybe I should stop reading when I hear analyst in the headline. Here's what I propose.

1)PGC members band together and make our own Analyst firm. The first analyst firm dedicated to videogames.
2)Most PGC'ers here are qualified because
 A)Play videogames. A lot.
 B)Follow gaming news regulary or semi-regularly
 C)Have well thought out opinions, or are well versed in the art of wit and sarcasm
 D)Have at least a high-school education
 E)While there's some bias towards nintendo, they don't mind playing games on other systems and saying they enjoyed it.
 F)Know what they want out of games
3)We hound potential investors buy convincing them that balding middle aged-men with love handles with fancy college degrees don't know much about games. Let them do something else, like sell insurance, mutual funds, etc.
4)PGC members are 'in the scene' and can make accurate, short-term predictions.

5)Once the investors have our trust, we make our predictions which should be a lot more accurate than Mr.Piper. After some time when their portfolios are bloated, they will trust us completely with their descions on buying game stocks. We get our checks and eventually, drop out of college/high school and invest in that 401k, or whatever else you wish.

stay in school

[nickmitch]

I think analysts should be fired for false predictions. Even if it take 2-5 years to prove them wrong, if they're wrong by a certain degree they should loose their job. . .and be pelted with stones.

[ThePerm]

arrr!

[OptimusPrime]

I hate analysts reports about the game industry because they make conclusions that anyone on these forums can make (and in most cases...better). They use the same logic as Capcoms marketing duds about launching Viewtifull Joe on the PS2 or SEGA's marketing duds making exclusives on the Xbox who bomb beyond reckoning while the GC offers the best sales of their games.

We all know that that kind of logic is no logic at all.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

You know what's really sad, nintendo's stock price is probably going to drop on this news, not to mention the possibility that some whill make a decision on whether to buy nintendo products based on this report.

[nickmitch]

Yeah, but people like that are stupid. Video game analyzers(sp?) are almost always wrong. Usually they don't know squat about games. They're just the Madden guys at the office so they get picked for the job.
See, life is like a hall way where there are many different doors leading to people's different interests; there's a door for sports, buisness, cooking, movies, etc. Our room used to be small, dark, and scary to outsiders, but, as our room grew, other rooms moved closer to ours. Sports, movies (and now music somewhat) are getting too close. So now people from other rooms are taking a look at our door and trying to look in. But when the go in there is just a door and a window. When you go through you start off at the casuals' realm (where EA has a farm hat, a stool, a cow, and a money bag) and when you go deeper you get to the hardcore fanbase. So when they look through the window, what they mostly see is a mix of the two. But gamers are deep in the room; we stay away from the window; so, when people look through the window they are confused and don't understand. They try to make sense of the situation but they can't. They just report back what they think they saw. Some try to go in the room but they don't dare stray too far, lest they get lost and confused and are sonsidered one of us.

[stevey]

These analysis are stupider than a vetable eating a cow pie I tell you what[/red neck]j/k Do they get a pay check for this? If so then they need to be fired there at lest goinging to be 1~10 million on the first year and 30~60 by the third year.

[mantidor]

analysts? the ones who predicted a $400 price tag for the psp? LOL at them.

[nemo_83]

My magic eight ball says Sony and MS are about to get something not "office safe" to write.

[King of Twitch]

These analysis are stupider than a vetable eating a cow pie

Somehow that gave me a vision of a kettle and a pot.

[ShyGuy]

well, considering that cow pie is slang for cow manure, and cow manure is as fertilizer for vegetables, then a vegetable eating a cow pie isn't so crazy.

How come these analysts never get called on these dumb predictions?

"Noted analyst Joe Momma went on to state how the next N-Gage system would undoubtedly dominate the handheld market. Of course, Joe Momma did predict several years ago that the internet was a fad that would quickly die out, so as you can see, He is in fact a flaming idiot. This is Tricia Takanawa, signing off, back to you Tom."

[Mario]

Do these analysts get paid?

[nemo_83]

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Originally posted by: Mario
Do these analysts get paid?

They recieve what is called payolla.  In my opinion today the majority of "journalists" and "analysts" in this industry are full of it.  The industry is becoming a huge joke.  How can anyone claim to be unbiased when they are recieving hardware, software, vacations, and/or cash from these companies?  I'm not pointing any fingers at any group in particular, but we all read the mags; we all know who gets special treatment and who doesn't and who they may be getting it from.