Topic: Baseless Speculation: Wii U's Last Stand

[Br26]

Assuming that Nintendo had one final ace up their Wii U sleeve, what would it be?

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/feature/40921/baseless-speculation-wii-us-last-stand

Baseless Speculation is a new feature where we poll our staff and readers on a speculative question, and corral the responses.

This week on Baseless Speculation:  Assuming that Nintendo has at least one more ace up their sleeve for Wii U, what would it be?  We put the question to our staff and our Twitter followers, and here's what you came up with!

Neal Ronaghan, Site Director:Alright, let's roll up the sleeves and play the ever-popular "WTF are the Nintendo EAD Groups Doing?" game. EAD Group 1 most recently worked on Mario Kart 8, but that group's producer Hideki Konno is moving over to work on mobile. It's possible that team is working on something else for Wii U, but not likely. EAD Group 2 just released Splatoon and is also working on the pair of Animal Crossing spin-offs. They might be tapped out for the rest of Wii U's life. EAD Group 3 is the Zelda team and we know what they're working on. EAD Group 4 is working on Mario Maker, but they are also likely working on another project. That group also worked on the Pikmin series, and while I doubt we'll see Pikmin 4 out on Wii U, that same team could be working on an original Wii U game that could be launched next year. EAD Group 5 is working on all things Star Fox, so they're occupied. There's a chance EAD Tokyo is working on a final Wii U game, but all hints and signs point to EAD Tokyo moving their biggest resources to the NX. Eyeballing the other studios that Nintendo works with, I suppose Retro Studios could be working on another Wii U game.

To summarize, I don't really know. Maybe something from the Pikmin team or Retro Studios?

Matt West, Associate Editor:

Unfortunately for the Wii U, all signs are beginning to point toward a holiday 2016 release for the NX. The biggest sign of all was the lack of a major home-run hitter for Wii U in this year’s E3 Digital Event. 2016 is going to be all about ramping up hype for the Wii U’s successor, so all of Nintendo’s resources are going to be thrown onto ensuring they do not have (another) disappointing hardware launch.

I don’t believe Wii U has another major surprise from Nintendo itself. Outside of the next Zelda game and what has already been announced for its systems in 2016, I think all other projects are for the NX (with the possibility that Zelda for Wii U ends up getting the dual-release Twilight Princess treatment). Recent history suggests that the final year of a Nintendo console’s lifespan isn’t very kind to the system’s library, as they usually choose to abandon it in favor of the future.

However, just because Nintendo itself probably isn’t going to develop another hit Wii U title, that doesn’t mean we won’t see anything. Nintendo seems very happy as of late to allow other companies to play around in their IP sandbox. Maybe we could get a Hyrule Warriors 2? Or some other kind of crossover project like the Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem project? I have no idea. What I am sure of, though, is that we’re very unlikely to get a mega surprise announcement for Wii U with NX on the horizon. While that may be disappointing for Wii U owners and fans of series like Animal Crossing, Metroid and Paper Mario, it’s just the reality of the situation when it comes to an under-performing console in its twilight year.

Donald Theriault, News Editor:

If Nintendo has one last Wii U card to play, it's not going to be coming out of any of the usual development suspects - the ship has sailed from those studios as they go great guns to get the next handheld a decent launch lineup for next holiday. There's one of two ways this could go. The first big idea is a collaboration with an existing 3rd party in the vein of a Hyrule Warriors. This could be a home port of Pokken Tournament, Project Treasure being fleshed out into a full product or even something we don't know about yet. I highly doubt we're going to go 27 months between announcement of a deal with a 3rd party and first trailer as happened with the Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem project.

The other possibility is something that may have been buoyed by the success of Splatoon - something from a Nintendo studio's younger developers that moves into a field Nintendo hasn't touched, and would be necessary to appeal to core gamers even if it has the Nintendo touch. Splatoon went from first reveal to a disc being in stores within twelve months (note the difference between "disc in stores" and "complete") and if it plays well and has a good plan for content that's free even if it's not fully fleshed out, the Nintendo audience would certainly eat it up. Having a couple of extra franchises to work with on the new OS is really going to help Nintendo expand and prove to 3rd parties that there is a market for the kind of games they want to port.

Bryan Rose, Reviews Editor: Whatever it may be, I don't think it would be a new project. Evidence seems to be piling up that Nintendo seems to be committed to the NX by the fall of 2016. That doesn't mean we'll see any more games for the system, but in terms of major games...I think we might be seeing the rest of the Wii U's big game lineup with Starfox Zero and Super Mario Maker.

However, I do think there will be one last big game after those two releases, and it will be the new Zelda game that's due for release next year. I think it's far enough in development that we'll see it on the Wii U. But we'll also see a more enhanced version of the same game on the NX. Ironically, it's totally a Gamecube/Wii Twilight Princess sort of deal, but it makes sense. The NX needs a killer launch title to do well right off the market. New Super Mario Bros. U was good for Wii U, but not great. A brand new Zelda game, with as lofty ambitions as the next one has, might just do the trick. A dual release on both systems will give the Wii U one last hurrah and the NX a great head start.

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[xcwarrior]

I think their major move this holiday is going to be a price drop, plus the first big paid DLC Splatoon update. Or maybe they'll just keep it free and try to market it that way? But that game is their major success for this year, so try to milk it the best that you can.

Maybe WiiU + Splatoon + Super Mario Maker for $200, and the WiiU's hard drive is a little bigger than the current model. Obviously the two games are digital versions.

That's most enticing set up I can think of for WiiU that doesn't spend a lot of money actually making something we don't know about.

[TOPHATANT123]

Zelda is still a relatively unknown factor since it skipped E3 so that's gonna be pretty hype, then there's Pokken, Project Treasure, the Lego games and Genei Ibun Roku #FE. As well as maybe some smaller stuff like Project Giant Robot, Project Guard and perhaps something like SNES remix.
For a final year I think that's decent.

[Ian Sane]

At this point you know that things aren't going to substantially turn around for the Wii U so a major release to try to move Wii U's seems like taking away and potential system seller for the NX, which needs all the help it can get to get out of the hole the Wii U dug Nintendo in.  I don't know if a price drop is in the works but that is something that can be done for the Wii U that does not affect the NX in any way.

[BiteThePillow]

Ian Sane is right. It's really too late to turn the ship around. I was thinking of what might be good for Nintendo, and all that's coming to mind is what everyone already knows deep down: Metroid Prime 4, Super Metroid 2, a new Earthbound sequel, Mario RPG 2, Legend of Zelda: Skyrim Princess, F-Zero UX, Mario 62-2, Rogue Squadron, Star Tropics... POKEMON!??? All Nintendo have to do is look at why their most rabid fans have been jumping ship for the past 15 years and make a conscious effort to give them the games they have been fantasizing about since the late 90's. Every new generation, we hold our breath and think, "This is the one! It has better graphics than PS2! No. Oh, well this new one has WiFi and bluetooth and is like 2 1/2 Gamecubes stuck together! No. Ok, FINALLY, this one has HD and a badass gaming controller with awesome voice chat capabilities! Nintendo couldn't **** this up if they tried!
Ugh... so much frustration.
For a while I thought it would be cool to have a Kingdom Hearts style Subspace Emissary RPG, but then I realized that there aren't many of Nintendo's main characters who actually have personality, except possibly Mr. Game and Watch.

[Enner]

#NXis2017


I don't take Nintendo's poor E3 2015 showing as any more indication of its future than at its face value. Nintendo has dragged itself to its next console for its past three consoles; it would be surprising if the Wii U is any different. Granted, the Wii U is a historically under-performing platform for Nintendo. Also, the recent news rumblings of Square Enix considering Dragon Quest 10, Dragon Quest 11, and Final Fantasy 14 for the NX has given me cause to question my stance. Still, I expect Nintendo to be dumb, and the dumb move to do is drag the Wii U through another 2 years.


But drag it with what? I'd imagine the Nintendo is comfortable with having long DLC support for Splatoon, Super Smash Bros. for Wii U, and Mario Kart 8 through my hypothetical two years. (That said, the lack of a second round of Mario Kart 8 DLC is throwing my guesses to the dumps.) But Nintendo's big thing for E3 2016 being more Splatoon or Smash DLC looks extremely sad no matter how much you love those games.


I honestly don't have a clue as to what big or small game(s) Nintendo could put out to give the Wii U a few more gasps of life. Nintendo doesn't look interested in its back catalog in any big way for the Wii U, so that rules out any aggressive Virtual Console offerings or HD Remakes. Any big project is most likely being saved for the NX given the Wii U's tiny install base. Any small project is probably better put on the aging 3DS or smart devices.


Ugh, I need a Nintendo Direct already!

[Ian Sane]

Ian Sane is right. It's really too late to turn the ship around. I was thinking of what might be good for Nintendo, and all that's coming to mind is what everyone already knows deep down: Metroid Prime 4, Super Metroid 2, a new Earthbound sequel, Mario RPG 2, Legend of Zelda: Skyrim Princess, F-Zero UX, Mario 62-2, Rogue Squadron, Star Tropics... POKEMON!??? All Nintendo have to do is look at why their most rabid fans have been jumping ship for the past 15 years and make a conscious effort to give them the games they have been fantasizing about since the late 90's. Every new generation, we hold our breath and think, "This is the one! It has better graphics than PS2! No. Oh, well this new one has WiFi and bluetooth and is like 2 1/2 Gamecubes stuck together! No. Ok, FINALLY, this one has HD and a badass gaming controller with awesome voice chat capabilities! Nintendo couldn't **** this up if they tried!
Ugh... so much frustration.
For a while I thought it would be cool to have a Kingdom Hearts style Subspace Emissary RPG, but then I realized that there aren't many of Nintendo's main characters who actually have personality, except possibly Mr. Game and Watch.

They need the real PokĂ©mon RPG console game, like we all imagined would come out on the N64 or at least the Gamecube.  Think what Ocarina of Time is to A Link to the Past.  Take the handheld PokĂ©mon RPGs (which are very much still 2D even though they use polygons) and convert the gameplay to full 3D like they did with most of their franchises in the N64 era.  Time it for the NX launch and the system sells like hot cakes from day one.  Of course if they don't already have it in the works then it ain't going to make launch but at the very least they could have it announced by then to build anticipation for the system.  This has been the ultimate dream game for Nintendo fans for at least 15 years and it is baffling that Nintendo has refused to make it, especially when it probably could have turned the Gamecube's fortunes around.

[Bman87301]

I'm not sure why you're all assuming the NX is the Wii U's successor-- they've given no indication whatsoever of what it is. Timing-wise it makes more sense to be the 3DS's successor. If it's their NEXT system and their next handheld hasn't been announced yet, it seems most logical to assume it'll be their next handheld. Rushing ahead to begin a new generation on the console front just because their current system is floundering doesn't seem like Nintendo's style.

[broodwars]

I'm not sure why you're all assuming the NX is the Wii U's successor-- they've given no indication whatsoever of what it is. Timing-wise it makes more sense to be the 3DS's successor. If it's their NEXT system and their next handheld hasn't been announced yet, it seems most logical to assume it'll be their next handheld. Rushing ahead to begin a new generation on the console front just because their current system is floundering doesn't seem like Nintendo's style.

Because Nintendo has shown no sign whatsoever that Wii U has a future post Holiday 2015, and the Wii U has been an abject failure. The 3DS could probably still coast for a year or 2. Nintendo's in no danger of losing the handheld market like they've been nearly shut out of the console market. That's assuming this isn't a hybrid, of course.

[BiteThePillow]

I'm not sure why you're all assuming the NX is the Wii U's successor-- they've given no indication whatsoever of what it is.

Nintendo actually have given some indication of what NX is, and they indicate that it's going to be something that spans across different types of hardware, rather than being focused on one specific gaming box or handheld. It could be a new OS or environment that is compatible with home console, handheld, and mobile device - something like Playstation Mobile, or maybe something more like iOS or Windows 10. The hardware updates for the "New" 3DS suggest to me that it was meant to support some newer operating system and software gaming platform. Why would Nintendo update the hardware so much for only a couple of games? The NX as a software/network infrastructure might possibly run on Wii U, New 3DS, mobile, and some newer, unannounced hardware. Think of the Playstation Store spread across PSP, PS Vita, PS3, and PS4. And now that those devices are all supported by Unity (except PSP), cross platform development and sales have become much easier. Windows 10 is getting there too. Soon it will run on phones, Xbox One, tablets, and PC's, all linked to one app market, with Xbox Live integration. Still, this type of NX future seems almost impossible, when you envision it coming from a company that can't even figure out cross game chat, while Microsoft has had the feature for 12 years now.

[Oedo]

Reggie literally said that they're working hard on their next home console in an interview with the WSJ around E3. Maybe he misspoke, but that's not the only sign that points to it being the Wii U's successor. You can argue that some of the evidence is tenuous, but it's far from a situation where we have no indication whatsoever of what it is. Nintendo does some dumb things, but I don't think they're foolish enough to put out a successor to the 3DS (which is fine even if it's not earth-shattering) before the Wii U (which is unequivocally a tire fire).

[TOPHATANT123]

I'm assuming NX is replacing Wii U and 3DS, either as a single platform or as an ecosystem with two consoles that share a library, it doesn't matter. But what's clear is that Nintendo cannot support two consoles at once without western 3rd party support. Now that the two hardware teams are working out of the same office now this is the most logical conclusion.

This way the NX would theoretically have the strongest 1st party support of any Nintendo platform ever since they would have all their developers working on the same hardware and this would lead to a much greater diversity of ip and genres.

What usually happens is EAD 1 only gets to focus their resources on the Mario Kart series because as soon as they finish work on a new Mario Kart there is a new system on the horizon that needs a Mario Kart game, and the team gets stuck in an endless cycle of just making Mario Kart over and over. What I'm trying to say is F-Zero NX confirmed.

[Bman87301]

Reggie literally said that they're working hard on their next home console in an interview with the WSJ around E3. Maybe he misspoke, but that's not the only sign that points to it being the Wii U's successor. You can argue that some of the evidence is tenuous, but it's far from a situation where we have no indication whatsoever of what it is. Nintendo does some dumb things, but I don't think they're foolish enough to put out a successor to the 3DS (which is fine even if it's not earth-shattering) before the Wii U (which is unequivocally a tire fire).

Acknowledging they're working on a new console in no way suggests it's the same thing as the NX. I have a strong feeling the NX will be the essential opposite of the Wii U-- a handheld based system that can stream to TVs. If so, it could fill the gap for the next couple years until they're ready for the actual Wii U sucessor.

[Shaymin]

The rule about Nintendo hardware is they start working on the next one as soon as the previous one ships, so there's not a whole lot to read into Reggie's E3 comments.

[Oedo]

Reggie literally said that they're working hard on their next home console in an interview with the WSJ around E3. Maybe he misspoke, but that's not the only sign that points to it being the Wii U's successor. You can argue that some of the evidence is tenuous, but it's far from a situation where we have no indication whatsoever of what it is. Nintendo does some dumb things, but I don't think they're foolish enough to put out a successor to the 3DS (which is fine even if it's not earth-shattering) before the Wii U (which is unequivocally a tire fire).

Acknowledging they're working on a new console in no way suggests it's the same thing as the NX. I have a strong feeling the NX will be the essential opposite of the Wii U-- a handheld based system that can stream to TVs. If so, it could fill the gap for the next couple years until they're ready for the actual Wii U sucessor.

Here's the exact question and answer (which I probably should have posted in the first place):

WSJ: Sony’s and Microsoft’s consoles have far outsold the Wii U. What’s your strategy to come out ahead?


Fils-Aime: The time frame that these systems are sold is quite long, and right now we’re still at the very early stages of the current generation. The other piece I would highlight is this is a global business. Don’t just look at what’s happening here in the U.S. Look at what’s happening globally.


From a Nintendo perspective, we clearly have strength here in the Americas, we have strength in Europe and we have strength in Japan. That isn’t necessarily true of some of our more direct competitors. We’ve also said publicly that we are already hard at work on our next home console and that’s another element we’ll be talking about much later.

"We've also said publicly" is a pretty obvious reference to the NX imo, since that's the only new hardware they've announced.

[Bman87301]

WSJ: Sony’s and Microsoft’s consoles have far outsold the Wii U. What’s your strategy to come out ahead?


Fils-Aime: The time frame that these systems are sold is quite long, and right now we’re still at the very early stages of the current generation. The other piece I would highlight is this is a global business. Don’t just look at what’s happening here in the U.S. Look at what’s happening globally.


From a Nintendo perspective, we clearly have strength here in the Americas, we have strength in Europe and we have strength in Japan. That isn’t necessarily true of some of our more direct competitors. We’ve also said publicly that we are already hard at work on our next home console and that’s another element we’ll be talking about much later.

That certainly does seem to point to NX being their nest console... But it also says they're still at they early stages of the current generation, which strongly hurts the likelihood of it coming as early as 2016... and points back to my initial assertion that Nintendo won't be cutting the Wii U's life short.

[Bman87301]

I'm not sure why you're all assuming the NX is the Wii U's successor-- they've given no indication whatsoever of what it is. Timing-wise it makes more sense to be the 3DS's successor. If it's their NEXT system and their next handheld hasn't been announced yet, it seems most logical to assume it'll be their next handheld. Rushing ahead to begin a new generation on the console front just because their current system is floundering doesn't seem like Nintendo's style.

Because Nintendo has shown no sign whatsoever that Wii U has a future post Holiday 2015, and the Wii U has been an abject failure. The 3DS could probably still coast for a year or 2. Nintendo's in no danger of losing the handheld market like they've been nearly shut out of the console market. That's assuming this isn't a hybrid, of course.

You're ignoring Zelda-- it's still planned for 2016. You can certainly speculate it'll either get moved over to NX or get a dual release treatment like TP all you like... but its current status indeed does indicate a post 2015 future until we hear otherwise.

[broodwars]

I'm not sure why you're all assuming the NX is the Wii U's successor-- they've given no indication whatsoever of what it is. Timing-wise it makes more sense to be the 3DS's successor. If it's their NEXT system and their next handheld hasn't been announced yet, it seems most logical to assume it'll be their next handheld. Rushing ahead to begin a new generation on the console front just because their current system is floundering doesn't seem like Nintendo's style.

Because Nintendo has shown no sign whatsoever that Wii U has a future post Holiday 2015, and the Wii U has been an abject failure. The 3DS could probably still coast for a year or 2. Nintendo's in no danger of losing the handheld market like they've been nearly shut out of the console market. That's assuming this isn't a hybrid, of course.

You're ignoring Zelda-- it's still planned for 2016. You can certainly speculate it'll either get moved over to NX or get a dual release treatment like TP all you like... but its current status indeed does indicate a post 2015 future until we hear otherwise.

That's not a future. That's an obligation, and I doubt that's even going to be a Wii U game anyway. That & SMT x FE are the ONLY Wii U titles Nintendo has announced for 2016, and the only new Wii U games they've announced recently have been worthless shovelware like Mario Tennis and Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival. The Wii U is DONE. If Nintendo was serious about supporting Wii U, we'd have seen major software announced by now. Instead, they're teasing NX and hiding Zelda. Wii U is done as a Nintendo platform.

[Enner]

That's not a future. That's an obligation, and I doubt that's even going to be a Wii U game anyway. That & SMT x FE are the ONLY Wii U titles Nintendo has announced for 2016, and the only new Wii U games they've announced recently have been worthless shovelware like Mario Tennis and Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival. The Wii U is DONE. If Nintendo was serious about supporting Wii U, we'd have seen major software announced by now. Instead, they're teasing NX and hiding Zelda. Wii U is done as a Nintendo platform.

Calling a new Mario Tennis game and the Animal Crossing video board game "shovel ware" would be a mislabeling if it weren't for all the actual shovel ware moving away from the retail space.

As for major software announcements... "hey, you know how Nintendo likes to surprise us," said sheepishly.

Here's where I'm coming from: Zelda Wii U being a split-platform game, the NX/next console(s) coming out in 2016, etc. Those are all smart business moves, and I don't think Nintendo makes smart business moves. Or rather, they expended their "smart business move" juice with the success of amiibo, the Universal Studios theme parks deal, and the DeNA deal.

Nintendo has always been an aloof company, more so in the past decade, that routinely defy expectations and sense. So as piss-poor and near-sighted as their E3 2015 presentation was, I don't think we can take it as a guarantee that that's it for the Wii U. I don't think it is out of question that, come E3 2016, we will be seeing the Wii U slowly dragging itself through 2016 because the NX is far away in to 2017. That sounds like a dumb thing to happen, and Nintendo is still currently a company that makes dumb things happen.

[broodwars]

Yeah, it's possible they could try to drag Wii U's rotting corpse through another year, but I doubt it when Nintendo's ALREADY talking about franchises they're not goin to do on Wii U like Metroid. Add the Wii U's abysmal 10 million sales to the pile, the lack of even minor 3rd party support, and Nintendo's near-total focus on 3DS at E3, and it really feels like Wii U's done. I'm personally in the "NX is a hybrid" cp since Nintendo's clearly chosen to be incapable of supporting 2 platforms at once.

[Luigi Dude]

Yeah, it's possible they could try to drag Wii U's rotting corpse through another year, but I doubt it when Nintendo's ALREADY talking about franchises they're not goin to do on Wii U like Metroid. Add the Wii U's abysmal 10 million sales to the pile, the lack of even minor 3rd party support, and Nintendo's near-total focus on 3DS at E3, and it really feels like Wii U's done. I'm personally in the "NX is a hybrid" cp since Nintendo's clearly chosen to be incapable of supporting 2 platforms at once.

Did you even pay attention to E3 this year?

http://e3.nintendo.com/games/

Nintendo not only showed more Wii U games at E3, the game they gave the most attention to by far was Mario Maker, which is a Wii U game.  Not only that but Wii U games on average got longer coverage during Treehouse Live as well compared to their 3DS counterparts. 

Plus at this point in 2010 the only Wii games we knew was coming in 2011 was Skyward Sword, Mario Sports Mix and in Japan The Last Story.  This is one of the reasons why some were so sure the Wii's successor would be out in 2011, just like how the same suspects are saying the same thing again.  All the remaining title for the Wii like Kirby, Pandora's Tower, Rhythm Heaven Fever, Mario Party 9, Fatal Frame 2 remake, Fortune Street, Wii Play: Motion, and Poke Park 2 were all announced late 2010 or in 2011 and either released later that year or in 2012.

So yeah, not having games announced at E3 doesn't mean anything when it comes to Nintendo's upcoming lineup for their systems.  And the comment about Metroid was that Prime 4 wouldn't come out because it wasn't even in development and would take at least 3 years to make.  Even if the Wii U was doing Wii level hardware numbers, it would still have a successor out by 2018.  Nothing about Tanabe's comments say Retro couldn't still have a different game that's not Prime 4 out on the Wii U in 2016.

[broodwars]

Nintendo not only showed more Wii U games at E3, the game they gave the most attention to by far was Mario Maker, which is a Wii U game.

A Wii U game that was announced and thoroughly shown off last year. Nothing new. We also knew about Star Fox, Yoshi, Xenoblade X, etc. last years as well, if not for the last two years. Nintendo didn't announce a single major or worthwhile new Wii U game this E3. Not. Even. One.  And no, I didn't watch their boring Treehouse streams, with the exception of the SMT x Fire Emblem one I caught on archive. And that's not specifically a knock against Nintendo. I didn't watch Sony or Microsoft's Treehouse knockoffs either.

Plus at this point in 2010 the only Wii games we knew was coming in 2011 was Skyward Sword, Mario Sports Mix and in Japan The Last Story.  This is one of the reasons why some were so sure the Wii's successor would be out in 2011, just like how the same suspects are saying the same thing again.  All the remaining title for the Wii like Kirby, Pandora's Tower, Rhythm Heaven Fever, Mario Party 9, Fatal Frame 2 remake, Fortune Street, Wii Play: Motion, and Poke Park 2 were all announced late 2010 or in 2011 and either released later that year or in 2012.

Of that list of titles you reeled off there, not a single one was a major title; Pandora's Tower and Fatal Frame aren't even 1st party titles; and Fatal Frame didn't even come OUT in North America (and Pandora's Tower barely did as well).  Yeah, they limped along with the Wii's decaying corpse for 2 years barely putting any support behind the thing. Good thing they were putting those 2 years worth of 1st party support they weren't putting on the Wii into Wii U launch games, right? 

That 2 year period of barely any support killed any momentum Nintendo could've carried into the Wii U, and as a result I don't think they're going to pull the same stunt with the NX. I think that's why they have nothing new even teased for 2016 on Wii U, and I think that's why they've been refusing to let anyone see the new Zelda. I seriously think NX is 2016, and it's Wii U's replacement of one form or another.

[BiteThePillow]

Wii U exclusive: Firefly Season 2: The Game, directed by Joss Whedon, starring original cast members, with special launch edition that includes Jayne's hat and a Serenity ship keychain. (Seasons 3 and 4 will launch on both the Wii U and NX exclusively)

[Ian Sane]

So we've got speculation of what Nintendo should do or what their actions suggest they'll do next and then we have the counter-point that they won't do that specifically because it would make sense.  So Nintendo has gotten to the point where predicting what they'll do next is like predicting the actions of a crazy person.

All logic dictates a 2016 Wii U replacement.  To drag things out for any longer than that is such a delusional stupid idea... but we're dealing with a crazy person so "well that's stupid" is not a valid reason.  Hell I wouldn't be surprised if there was some Nintendo exec who feels that since the Wii lasted six years that the Wii U should do the same.

One thing I would like about the Wii U getting replaced in 2016 is that it would put Nintendo back on their traditional schedule of launching new consoles on years ending with 1 or 6.  1985, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012 - they had a good 20 year pattern going there before the Wii U.