Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread

[TOPHATANT123]

Very generalised wishy washy information, I'm going to say fake.

[ShyGuy]

Your hat is fake!

[Evan_B]

Don't we always hear things like this? I think it's much better to wait and listen to the rumblings of power after the reveal of the hardware instead of before. Then, developers can actually confirm the existence of... you know, something.

[TOPHATANT123]

Says the toad with the fake moustache, I'm on to you monsieur Shy Guy.

[supermario2k]

At this point though if it isn't more powerful than PS4 it either has to be a handheld or it is totally going to suck.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

Should Nintendo NX be worried about Playstation4K? I assume the NX has to be more powerful than an 3year old console. What if ps4k is more powerful than NX?

[Adrock]

Should Nintendo NX be worried about Playstation4K? I assume the NX has to be more powerful than an 3year old console. What if ps4k is more powerful than NX?

No.

First, if NX is a console and handheld with an expected five year or so cycle, the hardware is only going to hurt Nintendo if it aims so low it can't handle modern engines. NX-Console doesn't even need to be more powerful than regular PS4. It should be in the ballpark. Nintendo can aim lower or it can aim higher. Over two years after PS4 launched, it shouldn't be that hard for NX to be more powerful. It depends on what Nintendo values.

The following is my pretty rudimentary understanding of hardware jargon. On x86-64, this isn't difficult. If Nintendo goes with Puma cores, it can match or exceed PS4's CPU with fewer cores and fewer threads per core by just being the successor of the Jaguar cores in PS4 and launching three years later. On ARM, it's apparently possible to outperform PS4's CPU with 64-Bit ARM Cortex-A72 cores, but that's like top of the line stuff. While that lines up with the rumors of Nintendo going with "industry leading chip," I'll believe it when I see it because that doesn't jive with Nintendo's approach with hardware. At the same time, that puts Nintendo in exactly the spot it probably wants to be. The console is comparable to PS4's power while being on the same architecture as the handheld. It won't be considered severely underpowered while benefiting from a shared library without worrying about compiling between different instruction sets and other nonsense I barely understand.

Second, at best, PS4K is Sony's New 3DS. Some games will be enhanced, but most games will be built for and play just fine on the regular PS4. The reactions I've been reading from PS4 owners tend to lean toward "As long I can still play all the games, this is fine." The outliers are people who are ready and willing to upgrade and people vehemently against this. Sony should hope this is the worst of it because the company risks splitting the user base which is exactly the kind of **** up competitors would need to steal back some market share. That's generally how this works. First place has to mess up.

However, Iwata previously hinted at this with his "like brothers in a family of systems" comment from a couple years ago. The difference is that Nintendo seems to have planned upgraded models for years while Sony likely didn't plan iterations. Either way, it's an uphill battle because upgraded hardware models goes against every impulse of purchasing a home console. People buy consoles to not deal with this for several years. DSi and New 3DS are fine, but they didn't light the world on fire. They sold to a very specific subset of consumers because not everyone has money to throw at upgrades. Smartphones are so ingrained in modern culture that a lot of people upgrade those every couple years. That's just not true for an inessential hobby like video games. My hope is that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are smart enough to understand this.

Ultimately, I think Nintendo just needs to focus on making the best and most complete hardware it can before worrying about whether PS4K poses a threat. Release a good product, have a solid launch lineup, and market the thing. Get through at least the first year with some semblance that it has been a hardware manufacturer for over 30 years. It doesn't really matter what Sony and Microsoft do if Nintendo can't get the basics right.

[BranDonk Kong]

It can't be sub-PS4. Sony is allegedly going to release an upgraded PS4 this year or next year (which is crazy, btw)...Nintendo can't pull another Wii.

[nickmitch]

Isn't MS also rumored to be doing an Xbox One and a Half?  Still, I'm assuming the upgraded system(s) would be mostly for the output and making some games slightly faster.

But, I don't think the NX could afford to be sub-PS4.  The Wii U had a bad rep for being too weak, not making it at least "up to par" could be crippling out of the gate. Hell, even "on par" could be considered "too little, too late".

[Adrock]

Sub-PS4 is weirdly non-specific. Are we talking Xbox One or Two Wii U consoles duct taped together? Ideally, the home console would be half a generation ahead of PS4 which is around where PS4K is rumored to be. Can Nintendo reasonably sell that for $300? Doubt it, but that's as high as it can afford to be launching in 2016. Really, it should be powerful enough to receive ports it usually won't get anyway. Xbox One is Nintendo's low bar then. The console with a Pro Controller at $300 is as high as that bar raises. Nintendo can get some decent specs launching at that price in 2016. However, it can't and shouldn't compete with PS4K. That thing is rumored to be $400 to $500. Couple that with PlayStation VR, possibly the main reason PS4K is even apparently a thing. That's an extremely niche audience, one that shouldn't concern Nintendo right now because that audience doesn't officially exist yet and it will always be smaller than the regular PS4 user base anyway.

Nintendo's goal for the first year of NX should rebuilding its brand, and convincing regular PS4 (and regular Xbox One owners) that NX is worth their money too. Figure that out then maybe consider how to take back market share from Sony. And after that, Nintendo can start caring about PS4K. People are getting way too ahead of themselves. Nintendo is no where near where it has to be to worry about Sony and Microsoft launching upgraded iterations of their existing machines.

NX isn't beating PS4, and PS4K is a non-factor in this. Should NX include more advanced hardware, only Nintendo's first party titles and its exclusive reclamation projects from third parties would ever utilize that power. If Nintendo manages to score some ports, they'll look no better than the PS4 version. No company is going the extra mile to make the Nintendo version the best version.

[Shaymin]

How many Vitas duct-taped together is the handheld? (At least two, hopefully.)

[Ian Sane]

Here's what a console NX should have for power: what would someone who isn't Nintendo go with?  No one but Nintendo would cut corners on the power unless it was like some Hyperscan level junk product.  The Wii and Wii U were weird.  No one in console history has intentionally gone with outdated hardware that was essentially a generation behind the rest of the industry.  It just isn't how things are done.  Even Nintendo's first console was a noticeable step up from the Ataris and Intellivisions it came after.  For example the Gamecube was more powerful than the PS2.  Of course it was.  It came out a year later.  That extra year gave them the ability to make it a little bit better and still sell it around the same price point.

So in a normal world the NX would surely be more powerful than the PS4 because it is coming out a full three years later.  Would it match the PS4K (which is a stupid idea by the way; how is that not the hot topic in the General Gaming section?)  Well if they come out around the same time I wouldn't expect Nintendo to know exactly what they have to match.  Going back with the Cube as an example it was not as powerful as the Xbox but that made sense.  The two came out at the same time and by the time MS revealed their product Nintendo already had committed to their design.  Hell that was out-of-nowhere stuff anyway.  MS was a newcomer to the market and Nintendo could not have assumed they would have to compete with them when they were designing the Cube.  They topped the Dreamcast and PS2 hardware, as expected, and still ended up comparable to the unexpected newcomer.  If they're releasing what should be expected for a PS4 competitor launching three years later it should end up close enough to the PS4K to not matter.

But if the NX is slightly underpowered compared to the PS4?  Bullshit.  What excuse is there when that tech is three years old?  Maybe you can crunch some numbers to show that financially Nintendo has to do that but that isn't what the general public will see.  It will look like Nintendo getting cute and cheaping out again.  Remember that for this to succeed it needs to win over the very people that were NOT interested in the Wii U because that's who buys consoles.

I believe there are a lot of potential gamers that would very much like to play Nintendo's games but don't want to buy some goofy unconventional console with no third party support to do so.  Nintendo games review well with the same sites that are gaga for every cliche Call of Duty sequel so those same people like Nintendo games.  Nintendo makes amazing games, but no games are worth the nonsense they ask their customers to go through with their consoles.  No cut corners, no trade offs - just offer something that follows industry conventions and let the games, which are better than Sony's and Microsoft's first party titles, sell themselves.

[Adrock]

Here's what a console NX should have for power: what would someone who isn't Nintendo go with?

Nah, that's too vague. Should Nintendo overshoot like Sony and Microsoft did last generation or comparatively undershoot like Sony and Microsoft did this generation? NX is launching mid-generation. That's the biggest clue to where it should be concerning hardware. Xbox One is currently $300, and Microsoft can and probably will drop the price (even temporarily again) by the end of the year. What's the best available hardware Nintendo can release at $300 with a traditional controller and no pack-in game? That doesn't even take into account whether Nintendo goes x86-64 or ARM, whether it takes a loss or makes a profit, how much of either etc.

But if the NX is slightly underpowered compared to the PS4?  Bullshit.  What excuse is there when that tech is three years old?  Maybe you can crunch some numbers to show that financially Nintendo has to do that but that isn't what the general public will see.  It will look like Nintendo getting cute and cheaping out again.  Remember that for this to succeed it needs to win over the very people that were NOT interested in the Wii U because that's who buys consoles.

First, x86-84 vs. ARM. Second, it depends on what the price is?

You're giving the general public way too much credit. Xbox One is "slightly underpowered compared to PS4," and if the general public was showed the games side by side, I doubt most could tell the difference. PS4 is probably getting held back because third parties still want to release on Xbox One.

I believe there are a lot of potential gamers that would very much like to play Nintendo's games but don't want to buy some goofy unconventional console with no third party support to do so.

The potential consumers you're referring to don't want to pay a premium for a second console, unconventional or not. And at least in the West, they certainly don't want to buy a handheld too which is another reason why a shared library helps Nintendo. And $300 is even pushing it, and I proposed that largely on the idea that Nintendo also manages to not screw up some basic thing like "make sure to tell people NX is a new console."

Third party support is tricky at this point. People already own a PS4, Xbox One, and/or PC for most third party titles. Getting Call of Duty and Madden is mostly for the Nintendo-only crowd. Nintendo isn't beating Sony and Microsoft at their own game. While it's nice to get those tent-pole games that are on everything else (which Nintendo should still strive for hence ballpark hardware), people aren't going to abandon their friends and an ecosystem they're comfortable with for anything Nintendo offers. Still, that's the reason I also advocate Nintendo picking as many dead projects that passionate groups of fans are clamoring for. One Bayonetta 2 isn't going to do much. However, a Bayonetta 3, a Beyond Good and Evil 2, and a steady stream of smaller exclusives starts getting people's attention and that $300 starts looking like a better investment.

[supermario2k]

PS4 is already 3 years old, by the time NX launches that is more than half way, that is also further along than SNES was compared to Sega Genesis. If NX launches and it is LESS powerful or even JUST AS powerful it will fail period. It needs to shoot for a TRUE next gen benchmark that can do stuff PS4 can't and if that means selling at $350 or even $400 if the hardware and games justify it people will buy, Wii U is 4 years old, there is already a market of 4+ million Wii U owners ready to jump ship, that is enough to get a start and if they bring in some of the outliers on the fence then they will be doing fine. They do not need to beat PS4 they just need to be competitive and make a console people want to buy.


One or two "mature" or "hard core" games isn't going to cut it either, Game Cube had that it didn't work then. NX needs to do everything a PS4 does and play Mario, Zelda, DK, Smash Bros, Metroid, etc, and work without any major hitches. It needs to have the same or better version of the media apps, it needs to have a brand new Splatoon fully online with chat and all, ready to go at launch, not a day after.

They also need to get some partnerships going right now, Sega, Atlus, Capcom, Konami, anyone they can bribe, forget the indies they are not going to be the savior that Nintendo thinks. Being the "best" indie machine didn't mean squat for Wii U, it sure as hell won't matter for NX.


And above all else it needs a traditional controller standard, any add-ons or funky controllers either pack-in but completely optional or just sold separately and completely optional.

[Ian Sane]

I believe there are a lot of potential gamers that would very much like to play Nintendo's games but don't want to buy some goofy unconventional console with no third party support to do so.

The potential consumers you're referring to don't want to pay a premium for a second console, unconventional or not. And at least in the West, they certainly don't want to buy a handheld too which is another reason why a shared library helps Nintendo. And $300 is even pushing it, and I proposed that largely on the idea that Nintendo also manages to not screw up some basic thing like "make sure to tell people NX is a new console."

Nintendo isn't going to win this gen.  Odds are they'll still finish last.  The plan should be to rebuild consumer trust so that they do better next generation.  So the goal should be to sell to those that have no problem buying multiple consoles and those that have not gone up yet and obviously Nintendo fans.  Sony pretty much spent the entire last gen trying to make the PS3 a sellable product.  They had the least sales of the three consoles but in the end had a pretty damn good product and that built up enough trust that the PS4 just ran away with this gen.  Nintendo's goal should be that next time around when everything starts again that they're seen as competent console makers and that buying their product doesn't mean having to put up with this trade-off or missing this feature or missing out on these games everyone else has or paying extra for this novelty feature that barely gets used.  If Nintendo goes weird and gimmicky again then that's their whole image - they're the weird guys that make novelty consoles.

[ThePerm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO4NPspMwLQ

There's a point in the video where the guy says the game will be released on a few platforms that haven't been revealed yet. I wonder how may secretive platforms there are currently.

[Mop it up]

Personally, I'll never understand why anyone would want three same-y consoles on the market that all have essentially the same features and the same / similar games. That's one reason why I liked the Wii, and to a lessor extent the N64; those systems were different than the competition and offered something unique, there was a whole lot more reason to own multiple systems than just a small handful of needlessly exclusive games. Much as I'm disappointed in the Wii U, that's the risk I take asking for something different than the norm, but I'd still prefer Nintendo to create another unique system instead of just copying what Sony and MS are doing. One reason why the PS2/GCN/Xbox generation is my least-fave is because the systems were just so identical to each other, it was boring.

Heck, we kind of still have three same-y systems if you count the PC in with PS4 and XBone, which all have most of the same "AAA" games released across all three. I see no reason to add a fourth to that, and I have no idea why anyone would want to buy 4 different pieces of hardware when they're all essentially the same. Seems like if things are going to be like that, it'd just be better to have one universal system. Yes, I understand the logistical problems with that from the business side, but it's what consumers should want as it would benefit them. I don't want to buy hardware, I want to buy games.

[nickmitch]

Personally, I'll never understand why anyone would want three same-y consoles on the market that all have essentially the same features and the same / similar games. That's one reason why I liked the Wii, and to a lessor extent the N64; those systems were different than the competition and offered something unique, there was a whole lot more reason to own multiple systems than just a small handful of needlessly exclusive games. Much as I'm disappointed in the Wii U, that's the risk I take asking for something different than the norm, but I'd still prefer Nintendo to create another unique system instead of just copying what Sony and MS are doing. One reason why the PS2/GCN/Xbox generation is my least-fave is because the systems were just so identical to each other, it was boring.

Heck, we kind of still have three same-y systems if you count the PC in with PS4 and XBone, which all have most of the same "AAA" games released across all three. I see no reason to add a fourth to that, and I have no idea why anyone would want to buy 4 different pieces of hardware when they're all essentially the same. Seems like if things are going to be like that, it'd just be better to have one universal system. Yes, I understand the logistical problems with that from the business side, but it's what consumers should want as it would benefit them. I don't want to buy hardware, I want to buy games.

This is such a great point.  I'd really like Nintendo to either find the next thing (I don't think VR is "it") or double down on the Gamepad idea.  There's reasons that didn't work out (cost, lack of multiplayer, asymmetrical multiplayer being not that interesting) that can be worked out with time and better specs (which can come with time).  The "hybrid console" can probably pull this off.  There aren't enough exclusives to go around in this industry anymore, so unless Nintendo doubles or triples its development capacity, they're gonna have a hard sell on getting new users.

[Ian Sane]

Personally, I'll never understand why anyone would want three same-y consoles on the market that all have essentially the same features and the same / similar games. That's one reason why I liked the Wii, and to a lessor extent the N64; those systems were different than the competition and offered something unique, there was a whole lot more reason to own multiple systems than just a small handful of needlessly exclusive games. Much as I'm disappointed in the Wii U, that's the risk I take asking for something different than the norm, but I'd still prefer Nintendo to create another unique system instead of just copying what Sony and MS are doing. One reason why the PS2/GCN/Xbox generation is my least-fave is because the systems were just so identical to each other, it was boring.

I don't want three same-y consoles.  I want one console with Nintendo's games and like 90% of the major third party releases.  To get that however Nintendo either has to smoke the **** out of the other guys or be one of three same-y consoles.  Nintendo's typical model of having a handful of first party releases and **** else is too restrictive to meet my needs as a single console purchase and I don't like the extra costs of owning multiple consoles.

[NWR_insanolord]

I think people want Nintendo to make a console like that are those who want to only have to buy one console. They want Nintendo's games as well as everything else, all in one place. Personally, as someone who already has a PS4 and an Xbox One, I'd be more than happy to see Nintendo throw another curveball out there, as long as they fix the real flaws with how they've done things.

[supermario2k]

It wouldn't be 3 of the same console if Nintendo would get their **** together though, it would be Playstation and Nintendo, Xbox would go out of business in a world where Sony and Nintendo were both at their best.

There really isn't room in the console market for three similar consoles, hasn't ever been if you look at history, there is barely room for two similar consoles there has always been enough differences between the major players to tell them apart. Even SNES vs. Genesis are only similar on the surface, once you dig into their libraries and add-ons, marketing, gameplay approaches, they are as different as night and day. Sony and Nintendo are very similar it is Microsoft who is the odd man out, and if you are going to lump PC in with the major consoles well that is a fallacy on it's own as there is little difference between an Xbox console and a Windows PC in the first place. PS and Nintendo you always get true exclusives you won't find on PC but with Xbox chances are outside of a handful of games there is nothing on it that can't be had on a good PC.

Xbox sticks around because of live. This generation Sony has found a way to take that out of the equation so if Nintendo could scoop up the major 3rd party games and have their exclusives, plus get some Nintendo-esque Japanese exclusives they might have a chance taking Microsoft out of the picture entirely. It only takes ONE major mistake in this industry to wipe out all good will and Microsoft doesn't have any good will left to bank on, Nintendo still has their franchises that people can't live without. If they had a product that there was no excuse to not make games for and no excuse not to buy people will flock to it. One reason Playstation has done so well ever is just doing what people expect Nintendo to do.

[Soren]

So are today's Reddit rumors the first time X86 has been specifically linked to NX?

[supermario2k]

I am curious what rumors were like before Wii U was announced. I do remember reading up on Wii before it came out but then I think most of the focus was on speculating what the controller might be like and deciphering the "2-3 times as powerful" comments.

I don't remember what leaks were like and how accurate those predictions turned out being.

[Luigi Dude]

I am curious what rumors were like before Wii U was announced. I do remember reading up on Wii before it came out but then I think most of the focus was on speculating what the controller might be like and deciphering the "2-3 times as powerful" comments.

I don't remember what leaks were like and how accurate those predictions turned out being.

For the Wii rumors, Matt from IGN back in the day revealed months before E3 that all his sources were telling him the system was basically a slightly more powerful Xbox so we knew what to expect.  Then after that other gaming journalist were saying the same thing from their sources.  So at this point in time back in 2006 we had a pretty good idea how powerful the Wii was going to be, which is why many thought the Wii was destined to fail because after the Gamecube underperforming, some said no one was going to buy a Nintendo system that was so underpowered.  Plus after the PS2s monster success, everyone thought Sony was invincible and there was nothing Nintendo or even Microsoft could do to take people attention away from the PS3.

Of course Nintendo blew the world away at E3 2006 with the Wii's lineup and Sony kind of killed the PS3 for the next several years with their "$599 US Dollars moment" so these people were all proven wrong but yeah, discussions were kind of negative around this time during 2006 for the Wii.  At least NX discussions have been more positive since with the pre-Wii reveal talks, there was a lot more "lol Nintendo going third party" bullshit in every thread.

[ShyGuy]

The link to the rumor: https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoNX/comments/4dbau3/you_survived_the_af_lockdown_now_claim_your_reward/?sort=old

From a 'verified' Reddit user.

    x86 architecture.

    Backup data to Nintendo server (most likely My Nintendo).

    Support for additional screen.

    Can handle ports of current-gen games.

    Will be able to interact with smartdevice apps.

    Using NX software will unlock My Nintendo reward points.