Topic: No Revolution loving from the analysts.

[jasonditz]

The PSP is to portable movie players what the N-Gage was to cell phones.

Even when it was selling well it was a piece of fashion for spoiled teenagers more than it was a video game system... look at the system:game tie in ratio, pretty miserable for a system that's being sold at a loss. I think Tycho from Penny Arcade said it best:

"User experience on the PSP - while the system is off, at any rate - really is amazing."

[kirby_killer_dedede]

People are afraid to admit they're Nintendo fans.  This one guy I know (my one-time best friend but he turned into a queer) is a Gamecube-and only Gamecube-owner and loves it, but when he goes out in public, he's a proud Xbox owner all of a sudden.

[nickmitch]

There are just two problems with relating the handheld market to the console one.
1) MS and the Xbox fanbase
2) Nintendo has been successful in the handheld market while recently things have been different in the console market
 

[IceCold]

And also, handheld games are quite different than console games. What I want out of a handheld is simpler games, fun games, old-school games and innovative games which load quickly and do not require a lot of time to be invested in them. And nongamers can relate to these much more, so it would make sense that the DS is doing well. The console market is entirely different; we'll just have to see if Nintendo can translate the success they've had on DS games into the Revolution.

[Ceric]

Yeah but the DS tapped a genre that has been severly lacking since my Childhood.  Good knowledge games that can be played by an adult.  Like Dr. Brain.  I hope that Transfers to the Rev.   Redoing some of these "Lost" genres may strenghthen the Rev in weird and mysterious ways.

[animecyberrat]

exactly, remeber how the the NES was alwasy called an Antertainment System, not a game system, and since video games were still new then people always called ANY video game just Nintendo games, and the NES had plenty of non traditional games that appealed to everyone. But back then everybody was a non gamer cuz gamers didnt exist liek they do today.


If the Rev can attract those old school gamers and the people who arent gamers but rememeber those old games that will draw them in, then if Nintendo can supply plenty of interesting games to satisfy thier needs then they will be on the right path. They will still have to create plenty of traditional games to appeal to traditional gamers and plenty of new stuff for the whiny kids who cant play the same game twice and abuse the word innovative.  Also I dont ever call any game non game just cuz its different, cuz every game has different rules like sims are still games and Nintendogs is just another sim.

[couchmonkey]

Edit: long rant shortened.

DS's success wasn't just luck.  Stuff analysts could have seen right from the start:

DS and PSP had roughly equal third party support, which anyone checking the release lists could see.

Nintendo had the momentum of years of handheld dominance behind it.

Sony's price was too high - practically every competitor Gameboy has ever had was more more powerful and more expensive.

Sony was so caught up in marketing the PSP as a lifestyle choice that it forgot to mention it plays games.  Oops!

How will Revolution do?  I think it's impossible to predict that without seeing the games.  If Nintendo proves it's got some truly great uses in mind for the controller at E3, and/or if it has significant third party support, then I think the analysts will be wrong.  If it has a DS-like launch, then they may be right, but I really doubt it will have a DS-like launch.  Nintendo saw an opportunity to beat Sony to market with the DS and took it.  With the Rev, I think Nintendo will take it's time to ensure a proper launch lineup.

It's also a bit early to tell if PS3 or Xbox 360 will win, but assuming equal pricing on both systems, I think they'll be about even in sales, and PS3 will probably come out on top.

[jasonditz]

All valid points, the vastly superior battery life is another thing that analysts seemed to miss.

[trip1eX]

The PSP is  the girl you pickup for a night.  The DS is the one you marry.

[archioverload]

Here's another take:

Quote
In related news, according to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, analysts from Nikko Citigroup have raised their 12 month stock price estimate for Nintendo from ¥14,000 ($121) to ¥18,000 ($155), citing increased expectations for the success of the forthcoming Revolution console.

Analysts at the firm have suggested a lifetime sales figure for the Revolution of 30 million – well below the current figure of around 100 million for the PlayStation 2, but above the around 20 million achieved by the current generation Xbox and GameCube.

I think this is more reasonable.  

[The Omen]

Quote
Nintendo is currently in last place. Their market share shrinks every generation. The third party support on the Cube is pretty much dead and Nintendo is currently not relevent to today's gaming market. Analysts follow trends and if you go by current trends Nintendo as a console maker is a sinking ship.

But 5 million is beyond a sinking ship.  Nintendo fans alone make up more than the 5 million figure.  It's a ridiculous number.  A bad year=11 million, expected=15 million, bloody brilliant=24 million.  5 million makes no sense whatsoever, and this piper jackass should be shot through his empty forehead.

[Magik]

5 million seems almost impossible unless Nintendo continues to make screw up after screw up and alienate even their own fanbase.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Japanese sales alone should be able to net 4 million+ in the first year, so unless it totally flops in Europe and NA, 5 million is waaayy too low a number

[JonLeung]

These analysts either suck at their job, or have no prior experience with gaming history/trends/etc. and were given extremely bad data to begin with and no means to find anything on their own.

You'd think someone with common sense could've checked this over before a report was publicly released.

Unless they're psychics and they foresee meteors slamming into all the manufacturing plants even remotely related to producing any part of Nintendo's products, as well as mass deaths of populations of Nintendo fans, 5 million is a really stupid prediction.  I'd guess that much or more are already considering buying it.

[nemo_83]

Here are my own baseless predictions for worldwide hardware sales by 2008

Revolution 18 million

PS3 12 million

360 10 million

[JonLeung]

The Revolution's differences are such X factors.  I'm reluctant to say that it will overtake the PS3 by that much...though I'm pretty sure that the Revolution will do better than the GameCube.

The PS3 will have a lot of interest, it'll be coming in strong from the PS2 - but it'll also be crazy-expensive from the sounds of it.  Hype will make it the big thing to have regardless of how sales are; can the quirky Revolution overcome that?

[Kairon]

Baseless predictions are fun! But also very, very, embarassing 3 years down the line.

But heck, I want some fun, so I'm gonna guess how many X360s are sold worldwide by Fall 2006...

hmmmm since current estimates on shipping rates are looking at 3 million or less by march, I'm saying....

My baseless guess is 8 million X360's sold by Fall 2006.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Ian Sane]

"Unless they're psychics and they foresee meteors slamming into all the manufacturing plants even remotely related to producing any part of Nintendo's products, as well as mass deaths of populations of Nintendo fans, 5 million is a really stupid prediction. I'd guess that much or more are already considering buying it."

Perhaps they're making the assumption that Nintendo's "non-gamer" strategy is going to scare away the existing fanbase?  Well THESE analysts probably aren't thinking that but if anything could cause such small sales that would be it.  It's a concern that's been brought up since the first Rev details were revealed.

[BlkPaladin]

Quote
Originally posted by: JonLeung
The Revolution's differences are such X factors.  I'm reluctant to say that it will overtake the PS3 by that much...though I'm pretty sure that the Revolution will do better than the GameCube.

The PS3 will have a lot of interest, it'll be coming in strong from the PS2 - but it'll also be crazy-expensive from the sounds of it.  Hype will make it the big thing to have regardless of how sales are; can the quirky Revolution overcome that?

That is what the prediction are based on. The PS2 did well  hense the PS3 will do just as well because of the brand name. This is one of the reasons the analysts thought the PSP would destroy the DS because it had the Playstation monkier. The reasons they give the Revolution and the DS bad projection is because a) The Nintendo brand seems to be diminishing and b) the machines go against convensions that are in place that usually spell disaster in other markets.

The reason why the numbers are not working out is because of the games. Sony relys too much on others creating content for their machines and a lot of it is cookie cutter (especially on the PSP). Nintendo relies on itself primarily to bring the content out and its fanbase knows what to expect from the games that Nintendo produces so they have a greater tendancy to adapt Nintendo's platforms. And with the DS Nintendo ablity to get developers to aply their vision to the DS and hopfully to a greater extent the Revolution. (Because it seems from comments from publishers there is intrest in the Revolution more so that with the DS.)

One other things if the redesigned console is the PSP with a Hard Drive it could present problems for Sony. (The magic box has an item that a redesigned consoles is coming out in the Spring.) A problem they should of learned from the much meligned PSX (The redesigned All-Pourpose PS2), and the current "problems" that are begining to come up with the Xbox 360. One you are going to segment you install base with the have and have nots, and depending on how well the redesign is recieved developer may concentrate on one or another alienating one of the segments. The Xbox 360 fanbase that bought the core system are finding out that some of the prettier games are designed to precatch on the Hard Drive so when these games are used on core systems there are problems.

[nemo_83]

The PS3 will be too expensive, it will be sold at a loss, Sony will manufacture shortages like MS, I expect it to come out late giving MS extra time to prepare Halo 3, the PS3 will have potential not accessed by developers for two to three years, even then it won't be worth the cost of the hardware or software being hardly more powerful than 360 due to 1080p resolutions, there will be few games at launch for PS3, as usual the launch games will suck, and expect defects galore at launch because Sony is the worst about launch bugs.  Sony's lost a lot of PR ground to Nintendo and MS, and the next five years will show that.  MS and Sony are going after a shrinking market already devided between DS and PSP entering the new cycle.  Nintendo is really the only one that stands to reach a wider audience.  The interface will prove to be the most important issue next generation.  

maybe it will be more like:  

Nintendo- 13 million
Sony- 10 million
MS- 7 million

[The Omen]

PS3-24 million
Rev.-20 million
360-15 million

[Arbok]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
Perhaps they're making the assumption that Nintendo's "non-gamer" strategy is going to scare away the existing fanbase?  Well THESE analysts probably aren't thinking that but if anything could cause such small sales that would be it.  It's a concern that's been brought up since the first Rev details were revealed.

Ian, I often respect you for your sometimes valid points that go against the norm here, but what the hell? I think the DS has already proven that going the "non-gamer" route is not going to scare off the existing costumers from at least trying it, after all what Nintendo fan is going to pass up the next SSB? If the system and games suck, then they suck, and I doubt it will be due to the fact that they are pandering toward a new demographic (after all that hasn't stopped them from releasing the "non-game" Nintendogs and the best Mario Kart on the DS in the same quarter).

[couchmonkey]

I have to agree with Arbok.  The concern that Nintendo won't have games for gamers is not only unfounded, but totally contradicted by the release of titles like Advance Wars, Mario & Luigi, Mario Kart DS and Metroid Pinball for the DS.  Revolution may scare away a few gamers with no sense of adventure, but in the end there will be a respectable lineup of hardcore games on the system.

My baseless predictions are:

End of 2006:
Xbox 360: 10 million
PS3: 7 million
Rev: 2 million (depends on how many are available since it will probably launch at year's end, and therefore will probably sell out).

End of 2007:
PS3: 20 million
Xbox 360: 19.5 million (emphasis on a very close race with Sony just edging MS out)
Revolution: 14 million

[Ian Sane]

"Ian, I often respect you for your sometimes valid points that go against the norm here, but what the hell? I think the DS has already proven that going the "non-gamer" route is not going to scare off the existing costumers from at least trying it"

I'm just saying that that has been a concern from day one so it's a way to justify an estimate of only 5 million in sales.  In order to sell that low that's what probably would have to happen.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Perhaps, but the success of the DS shows that it probably won't happen.