Author Topic: No Revolution loving from the analysts. (Read 25609 times)

BlkPaladin · « **on:** January 02, 2006, 02:29:43 PM »

From the same analysts that said the DS would not do well against the PSP. They have come out with their predictions for the next generation. It seems they only think the Revolution will sell 5 million units through 2008. They also reiterate that the PSP will get a boost when it rereleases the PSP with a Hard Drive, eventually beating the DS.

Here are the numbers they give through 2008.

1. Xbox 360 - 19.6 million units
2. PS3 - 15.5 million units
3. Revolution 5 million units.

(This is from page 42 of the December 2005 Game Informer. The analysts are from Piper Jeffray.)

Dirk Temporo · « **Reply #1 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:43:18 PM »

Do they know what the chances of a system only selling five million units in TWO F*CKING YEARS is?

KnowsNothing · « **Reply #2 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:44:58 PM »

Has a video game analyst ever been right? Even remotely? We need Mario in here, he's much better at this.

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #3 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:51:55 PM »

Yeah they keep trying to apply business logic to an industry that doesn't act normally.

SaimDusan.I · « **Reply #4 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:53:38 PM »

That could not have not been made by fanboys.

ShyGuy · « **Reply #5 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:56:32 PM »

Never mind, didn't read all the post, durh.

stevey · « **Reply #6 on:** January 02, 2006, 02:58:32 PM »

Reggie need to kick their butts. My number for sales are:
1 revolution - 23.7~35 million
2 360 - 2.5~10.8 million
3 ps3 - 1.91~4.98 million

odifiend · « **Reply #7 on:** January 02, 2006, 03:36:41 PM »

That is interesting that the analysts are from Piper Jeffray since their previous 'research' is what Nintendo has largely cited as the logic behind the Revolution. Revolution is kind of a wild card, but 24 months for 5 million consoles is kind of an insult - especially when you are looking at the expensive alternatives. Can Microsoft even produce that many consoles by then?

I don't understand how a 200 dollar harddrive will boost PSP sales and give it the magical 3-5 million more units it needs to even catch the DS.

Mario · « **Reply #8 on:** January 02, 2006, 04:42:02 PM »

Ahaha, are these worldwide numbers? If so, Revolution could sell 5 million units in Japan alone in one year, if they take to it like they did with the DS, which I think they will. 360 outselling PS3? Unless the cost of PS3 is going to be insanely high, or they make some other kind of stupid error, that isn't going to happen.

Of course, it's still too early to make accurate assumptions, which I guess is why they got these out now, so they can say "heh, well things changed! doh! UALUEALUEALUEALUEALAUELALAUA" when they're proven wrong.

Xbox 360 didn't even do 1 million worldwide in its first launch holiday season, with Microsofts lack of direction and complete lack of upcoming compelling content I don't see many people going out of there way to pick up a 360, let alone enough to make it market leader.

As for Playstation 3 and Nintendo Revolution, well we don't even have release dates for those systems yet. They're only discounting them just because they can, it's easy to say something that doesn't exist yet will suck and have people believe you.

I'm not going to guess numbers, but i'll say from what we know now, if everyone pre-ordered a next gen console right now, PS3 would get the most, then Revolution a fair bit behind, but not far enough for a catch up to be impossible, then Xbox 360 a bit behind that. Another thing is that Xbox 360 and PS3 are predictable, most likely if someone doesn't plan on buying a 360 now they wont change their mind in the future, at least until they hit family friendly price points, which DOESN'T look like it's going to happen anytime soon. Revolution is still a question mark, and depending on the games could be a threat to PS3, and considering the target audience is EVERYONE, it has the most potential. After E3, I can make an accurate prediction.

PSP ever catching up to DS is just laughable.

Magik · « **Reply #9 on:** January 02, 2006, 04:58:58 PM »

These analysts are basing their predictions on what Nintendo did with the GC, so it's not too surprising the REV is thought of being last.

Mario · « **Reply #10 on:** January 02, 2006, 05:36:30 PM »

Yeah, it's like they just saw how Nintendo's marketshare decreased with N64 and then again with GC, and predict it will happen again, extremely shallow and short sighted, I thought this was the kind of thing analysts were paid NOT to do.

BiLdItUp1 · « **Reply #11 on:** January 02, 2006, 07:07:17 PM »

Wall street analysts, in any field, are usually full of it and are trying to cover their own asses or pander to what the audience wants to hear (and, of course, money hats. Anyone seens Syriana?). Ditto for most game reviewers, film critics, etc. etc.

Honestly, I think that Nintendo has hit rockbottom in terms of console market share, and at this point, if they play they're marketing and game cards correctly (admittedly a big if), market share has nowhere to go but up. Certainly not 5 million in two years.

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #12 on:** January 02, 2006, 08:35:38 PM »

Yes just like Nintendo is in the market for money.

At least since games are their only source of income it makes them work harder to make their games good.

nickmitch · « **Reply #13 on:** January 02, 2006, 08:49:58 PM »

What I wanna know is: why do they think the 360 is going to sell the most?
It's current popularity is cancelled by it's scarcity. Do they even realize that?

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #14 on:** January 02, 2006, 10:40:19 PM »

It's not scarce in JAY-PAN. =D

Ceric · « **Reply #15 on:** January 03, 2006, 04:17:45 AM »

Ok just putting this out there but, can we agree that PSP is just a portable Video player with an exclusive format that just happens to be able to play games at a decent level? If we use that logic then the harddrive, if large enough, will make it able to rival the ipod. Which means in theory that yes the harddrive could produce that level of business, unless you can get the superior PDA with a harddrive. Sony dropped the ball with the PSP on something which is funny because they use to sell a top of line PDA. Go figure. Plus it can surf the web. Well I've never seen anything else portable that can do that, oh wait I have.

These "predictions" have no real bearing it seems where the Revolution is concerned. It sounds to me they are using the numbers from the Virtual Boy to make the "prediction" instead of the DS. *shrug* They'll change there tune when it sells 5 million within the first year, if not half a year, without any shortages.

Ian Sane · « **Reply #16 on:** January 03, 2006, 07:00:35 AM »

"Do they know what the chances of a system only selling five million units in TWO F*CKING YEARS is?"

Agreed. No console that sold that poorly would last two years.

Can't say that the X360 is going to beat the PS3 but regarding the low Rev numbers they're fairly logical.

Nintendo is currently in last place. Their market share shrinks every generation. The third party support on the Cube is pretty much dead and Nintendo is currently not relevent to today's gaming market. Analysts follow trends and if you go by current trends Nintendo as a console maker is a sinking ship.

And Nintendo doesn't have anything to show to prove otherwise. All they have is a weird controller and a "plan" about non-gamers that goes against how the current gaming market works. Nintendo's plan is either total genius or total insanity. They will either greatly succeed or fail miserably. Since Nintendo is keeping so much a secret "failure" is a safer estimate. There's nothing other than Nintendo's say-so that suggests improvement. Logically it would make more sense to assume that things will stay the same (ie: Nintendo's market shrinking) if there is nothing solid to suggest otherwise.

Assuming the PSP would do better than the DS was logical. The PSP had more games at launch then the DS had available PERIOD at the same time. The PSP launch games were better than the DS games available at the time. The PSP had better marketing and better hardware. All the DS had was a touchscreen feature that had not been established as anything beyond a g!mmick. Nintendo was even trying to disassociate the DS from the Gameboy, which was a strong brand name. What actually happened is something that would have been difficult to predict. The DS managed to sell well anyway despite having a HORRIBLE launch lineup and the PSP became a glorified movie player. I still think Nintendo fluked their way out of that one and that the portable market was Sony's for the taking and they screwed themselves over with their stupid UMD movie crap.

Well I guess you can say that analysts aren't reliable which is true. But the Rev significantly underperforming is not an unrealistic estimate. Nintendo's a two time "loser" with ideas about the future that conflict with everyone else. Unless you're a diehard fan with a lot of faith in them it just wouldn't make sense to assume that THIS time their cooky idea that goes against all market trends is going to work.

kirby_killer_dedede · « **Reply #17 on:** January 03, 2006, 07:21:40 AM »

Ian, as far as your doubts about the non-gamer strategy...the DS was trailing behind the PSP, just as analysts predicted, until the release of Nintendogs...Also, the four latest games to reach the million mark for DS all happen to be non-games, Nintendogs included (I consider Animal Crossing a non-game).

archioverload · « **Reply #18 on:** January 03, 2006, 07:21:57 AM »

The thing that sucks about these kind of Nostradamus-like predictions is that perception creates reality. We don't necessarily believe these predictions, but publishers do, and retail chains do. The biggest hurdle the Revolution will have, I think, is finding prominent retail shelf space. If people (except die-hards) can't get their hands on the controller to try it out then it's going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy with these numbers (okay, maybe not 5 million bad, but certainly not more than the GameCube--which Nintendo itself has said is the benchmark...if the Revolution doesn't sell more than the Cube then it's a failure).

BiLdItUp1 · « **Reply #19 on:** January 03, 2006, 07:44:14 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: kirby_killer_dedede
Ian, as far as your doubts about the non-gamer strategy...the DS was trailing behind the PSP, just as analysts predicted, until the release of Nintendogs...Also, the four latest games to reach the million mark for DS all happen to be non-games, Nintendogs included (I consider Animal Crossing a non-game).

I think Ian's point was that the DS is beating the PSP because Sony's screwed themselves with the whole UMD-movie thing, and that's why people are going to the DS. A point which I don't completely believe, though I'm sure it contributed in some way to the DS's growth recently.

Ian Sane · « **Reply #20 on:** January 03, 2006, 08:50:14 AM »

"I think Ian's point was that the DS is beating the PSP because Sony's screwed themselves with the whole UMD-movie thing, and that's why people are going to the DS."

Well now the DS actually has better games and deserves to sell better. But when the PSP launched I logically think it should have creamed the DS. The UMD movie issue is what prevented that though now the current scenario is perfectly logical. The DS has better games so it's winning.

ShyGuy · « **Reply #21 on:** January 03, 2006, 08:56:10 AM »

And look where your Vulcan logic got you now!

I think there are more factors to a game system's success than a favorable software catalog. That's a bit simplistic.

JonLeung · « **Reply #22 on:** January 03, 2006, 08:57:23 AM »

I see many more TV ads for the DS (the few times I actually do watch TV) but it seems like the PSP is still more talked about.

I think people are afraid of mentioning Nintendo because they think it's passé or will be labelled a fanboy if they do. Even when it's clear that the DS sells better and it's very likely due to much more interesting games, people don't seem to have to mention it as often as the PSP. Maybe because non-gamers identify with the fact that it can do more. And I think many people still think there's only one Nintendo handheld...the GBA (tough still mentioned as just the Game Boy in nearly all cases). Maybe the fact that there are two Nintendo handhelds, and one of those already with various redesigns (original, SP, Micro, not to mention the better lit SP, GBP, and the fact that the DS can play GBA games) non-gamers are confused and refer to them all as Game Boys, so maybe that's why I'm not hearing "DS" exactly when I could be hearing it.

Avinash_Tyagi · « **Reply #23 on:** January 03, 2006, 09:00:58 AM »

True the PSP did have a chance to knock off the DS, but that's over, the PSP has little chance of catching up now.

Whats important to take into account Ian, is that the DS's strategy of luring the non-gamer as well as the gamer has been paying off, now I know you can't directly transfer success in the portable market to success in the console market, but it bodes well for the Revolution that the DS has had such success, and since the lines in the console market seem to be taking a similar route as they did in the portable conflict between DS and PSP (PS3 and 360 going for power and multimedia, Rev going for innovation and the non-gamer as well) there is a reason to believe the Rev may have greater success than the GCN.

jasonditz · « **Reply #24 on:** January 03, 2006, 09:05:46 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: ShyGuy
And look where your Vulcan logic got you now!

I think there are more factors to a game system's success than a favorable software catalog. That's a bit simplistic.

Indeed

The Dreamcast had a better catalog than the PS2 right up until Sega pulled the plug.

jasonditz · « **Reply #25 on:** January 03, 2006, 09:15:03 AM »

The PSP is to portable movie players what the N-Gage was to cell phones.

Even when it was selling well it was a piece of fashion for spoiled teenagers more than it was a video game system... look at the system:game tie in ratio, pretty miserable for a system that's being sold at a loss. I think Tycho from Penny Arcade said it best:

"User experience on the PSP - while the system is off, at any rate - really is amazing."

kirby_killer_dedede · « **Reply #26 on:** January 03, 2006, 09:58:01 AM »

People are afraid to admit they're Nintendo fans. This one guy I know (my one-time best friend but he turned into a queer) is a Gamecube-and only Gamecube-owner and loves it, but when he goes out in public, he's a proud Xbox owner all of a sudden.

nickmitch · « **Reply #27 on:** January 03, 2006, 01:33:36 PM »

There are just two problems with relating the handheld market to the console one.
1) MS and the Xbox fanbase
2) Nintendo has been successful in the handheld market while recently things have been different in the console market

IceCold · « **Reply #28 on:** January 03, 2006, 04:16:26 PM »

And also, handheld games are quite different than console games. What I want out of a handheld is simpler games, fun games, old-school games and innovative games which load quickly and do not require a lot of time to be invested in them. And nongamers can relate to these much more, so it would make sense that the DS is doing well. The console market is entirely different; we'll just have to see if Nintendo can translate the success they've had on DS games into the Revolution.

Ceric · « **Reply #29 on:** January 04, 2006, 03:26:36 AM »

Yeah but the DS tapped a genre that has been severly lacking since my Childhood. Good knowledge games that can be played by an adult. Like Dr. Brain. I hope that Transfers to the Rev. Redoing some of these "Lost" genres may strenghthen the Rev in weird and mysterious ways.

animecyberrat · « **Reply #30 on:** January 04, 2006, 04:49:19 AM »

exactly, remeber how the the NES was alwasy called an Antertainment System, not a game system, and since video games were still new then people always called ANY video game just Nintendo games, and the NES had plenty of non traditional games that appealed to everyone. But back then everybody was a non gamer cuz gamers didnt exist liek they do today.

If the Rev can attract those old school gamers and the people who arent gamers but rememeber those old games that will draw them in, then if Nintendo can supply plenty of interesting games to satisfy thier needs then they will be on the right path. They will still have to create plenty of traditional games to appeal to traditional gamers and plenty of new stuff for the whiny kids who cant play the same game twice and abuse the word innovative. Also I dont ever call any game non game just cuz its different, cuz every game has different rules like sims are still games and Nintendogs is just another sim.

couchmonkey · « **Reply #31 on:** January 04, 2006, 10:56:24 AM »

Edit: long rant shortened.

DS's success wasn't just luck. Stuff analysts could have seen right from the start:

DS and PSP had roughly equal third party support, which anyone checking the release lists could see.

Nintendo had the momentum of years of handheld dominance behind it.

Sony's price was too high - practically every competitor Gameboy has ever had was more more powerful and more expensive.

Sony was so caught up in marketing the PSP as a lifestyle choice that it forgot to mention it plays games. Oops!

How will Revolution do? I think it's impossible to predict that without seeing the games. If Nintendo proves it's got some truly great uses in mind for the controller at E3, and/or if it has significant third party support, then I think the analysts will be wrong. If it has a DS-like launch, then they may be right, but I really doubt it will have a DS-like launch. Nintendo saw an opportunity to beat Sony to market with the DS and took it. With the Rev, I think Nintendo will take it's time to ensure a proper launch lineup.

It's also a bit early to tell if PS3 or Xbox 360 will win, but assuming equal pricing on both systems, I think they'll be about even in sales, and PS3 will probably come out on top.

jasonditz · « **Reply #32 on:** January 04, 2006, 01:47:08 PM »

All valid points, the vastly superior battery life is another thing that analysts seemed to miss.

trip1eX · « **Reply #33 on:** January 04, 2006, 06:36:39 PM »

The PSP is the girl you pickup for a night. The DS is the one you marry.

archioverload · « **Reply #34 on:** January 05, 2006, 07:30:53 AM »

Here's another take:

Quote
In related news, according to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, analysts from Nikko Citigroup have raised their 12 month stock price estimate for Nintendo from ¥14,000 ($121) to ¥18,000 ($155), citing increased expectations for the success of the forthcoming Revolution console.

Analysts at the firm have suggested a lifetime sales figure for the Revolution of 30 million – well below the current figure of around 100 million for the PlayStation 2, but above the around 20 million achieved by the current generation Xbox and GameCube.

I think this is more reasonable.

The Omen · « **Reply #35 on:** January 05, 2006, 07:32:45 AM »

Quote
Nintendo is currently in last place. Their market share shrinks every generation. The third party support on the Cube is pretty much dead and Nintendo is currently not relevent to today's gaming market. Analysts follow trends and if you go by current trends Nintendo as a console maker is a sinking ship.

But 5 million is beyond a sinking ship. Nintendo fans alone make up more than the 5 million figure. It's a ridiculous number. A bad year=11 million, expected=15 million, bloody brilliant=24 million. 5 million makes no sense whatsoever, and this piper jackass should be shot through his empty forehead.

Magik · « **Reply #36 on:** January 05, 2006, 08:16:30 AM »

5 million seems almost impossible unless Nintendo continues to make screw up after screw up and alienate even their own fanbase.

Avinash_Tyagi · « **Reply #37 on:** January 05, 2006, 09:38:54 AM »

Japanese sales alone should be able to net 4 million+ in the first year, so unless it totally flops in Europe and NA, 5 million is waaayy too low a number

JonLeung · « **Reply #38 on:** January 05, 2006, 12:10:49 PM »

These analysts either suck at their job, or have no prior experience with gaming history/trends/etc. and were given extremely bad data to begin with and no means to find anything on their own.

You'd think someone with common sense could've checked this over before a report was publicly released.

Unless they're psychics and they foresee meteors slamming into all the manufacturing plants even remotely related to producing any part of Nintendo's products, as well as mass deaths of populations of Nintendo fans, 5 million is a really stupid prediction. I'd guess that much or more are already considering buying it.

nemo_83 · « **Reply #39 on:** January 05, 2006, 12:15:23 PM »

Here are my own baseless predictions for worldwide hardware sales by 2008

Revolution 18 million

PS3 12 million

360 10 million

JonLeung · « **Reply #40 on:** January 05, 2006, 12:27:57 PM »

The Revolution's differences are such X factors. I'm reluctant to say that it will overtake the PS3 by that much...though I'm pretty sure that the Revolution will do better than the GameCube.

The PS3 will have a lot of interest, it'll be coming in strong from the PS2 - but it'll also be crazy-expensive from the sounds of it. Hype will make it the big thing to have regardless of how sales are; can the quirky Revolution overcome that?

Kairon · « **Reply #41 on:** January 05, 2006, 12:30:34 PM »

Baseless predictions are fun! But also very, very, embarassing 3 years down the line.

But heck, I want some fun, so I'm gonna guess how many X360s are sold worldwide by Fall 2006...

hmmmm since current estimates on shipping rates are looking at 3 million or less by march, I'm saying....

My baseless guess is 8 million X360's sold by Fall 2006.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

Ian Sane · « **Reply #42 on:** January 05, 2006, 12:30:48 PM »

"Unless they're psychics and they foresee meteors slamming into all the manufacturing plants even remotely related to producing any part of Nintendo's products, as well as mass deaths of populations of Nintendo fans, 5 million is a really stupid prediction. I'd guess that much or more are already considering buying it."

Perhaps they're making the assumption that Nintendo's "non-gamer" strategy is going to scare away the existing fanbase? Well THESE analysts probably aren't thinking that but if anything could cause such small sales that would be it. It's a concern that's been brought up since the first Rev details were revealed.

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #43 on:** January 05, 2006, 01:22:46 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: JonLeung
The Revolution's differences are such X factors. I'm reluctant to say that it will overtake the PS3 by that much...though I'm pretty sure that the Revolution will do better than the GameCube.

The PS3 will have a lot of interest, it'll be coming in strong from the PS2 - but it'll also be crazy-expensive from the sounds of it. Hype will make it the big thing to have regardless of how sales are; can the quirky Revolution overcome that?

That is what the prediction are based on. The PS2 did well hense the PS3 will do just as well because of the brand name. This is one of the reasons the analysts thought the PSP would destroy the DS because it had the Playstation monkier. The reasons they give the Revolution and the DS bad projection is because a) The Nintendo brand seems to be diminishing and b) the machines go against convensions that are in place that usually spell disaster in other markets.

The reason why the numbers are not working out is because of the games. Sony relys too much on others creating content for their machines and a lot of it is cookie cutter (especially on the PSP). Nintendo relies on itself primarily to bring the content out and its fanbase knows what to expect from the games that Nintendo produces so they have a greater tendancy to adapt Nintendo's platforms. And with the DS Nintendo ablity to get developers to aply their vision to the DS and hopfully to a greater extent the Revolution. (Because it seems from comments from publishers there is intrest in the Revolution more so that with the DS.)

One other things if the redesigned console is the PSP with a Hard Drive it could present problems for Sony. (The magic box has an item that a redesigned consoles is coming out in the Spring.) A problem they should of learned from the much meligned PSX (The redesigned All-Pourpose PS2), and the current "problems" that are begining to come up with the Xbox 360. One you are going to segment you install base with the have and have nots, and depending on how well the redesign is recieved developer may concentrate on one or another alienating one of the segments. The Xbox 360 fanbase that bought the core system are finding out that some of the prettier games are designed to precatch on the Hard Drive so when these games are used on core systems there are problems.

nemo_83 · « **Reply #44 on:** January 05, 2006, 02:08:36 PM »

The PS3 will be too expensive, it will be sold at a loss, Sony will manufacture shortages like MS, I expect it to come out late giving MS extra time to prepare Halo 3, the PS3 will have potential not accessed by developers for two to three years, even then it won't be worth the cost of the hardware or software being hardly more powerful than 360 due to 1080p resolutions, there will be few games at launch for PS3, as usual the launch games will suck, and expect defects galore at launch because Sony is the worst about launch bugs. Sony's lost a lot of PR ground to Nintendo and MS, and the next five years will show that. MS and Sony are going after a shrinking market already devided between DS and PSP entering the new cycle. Nintendo is really the only one that stands to reach a wider audience. The interface will prove to be the most important issue next generation.

maybe it will be more like:

Nintendo- 13 million
Sony- 10 million
MS- 7 million

The Omen · « **Reply #45 on:** January 05, 2006, 05:42:25 PM »

PS3-24 million
Rev.-20 million
360-15 million

Arbok · « **Reply #46 on:** January 05, 2006, 06:22:48 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
Perhaps they're making the assumption that Nintendo's "non-gamer" strategy is going to scare away the existing fanbase? Well THESE analysts probably aren't thinking that but if anything could cause such small sales that would be it. It's a concern that's been brought up since the first Rev details were revealed.

Ian, I often respect you for your sometimes valid points that go against the norm here, but what the hell? I think the DS has already proven that going the "non-gamer" route is not going to scare off the existing costumers from at least trying it, after all what Nintendo fan is going to pass up the next SSB? If the system and games suck, then they suck, and I doubt it will be due to the fact that they are pandering toward a new demographic (after all that hasn't stopped them from releasing the "non-game" Nintendogs and the best Mario Kart on the DS in the same quarter).

couchmonkey · « **Reply #47 on:** January 06, 2006, 05:17:02 AM »

I have to agree with Arbok. The concern that Nintendo won't have games for gamers is not only unfounded, but totally contradicted by the release of titles like Advance Wars, Mario & Luigi, Mario Kart DS and Metroid Pinball for the DS. Revolution may scare away a few gamers with no sense of adventure, but in the end there will be a respectable lineup of hardcore games on the system.

My baseless predictions are:

End of 2006:
Xbox 360: 10 million
PS3: 7 million
Rev: 2 million (depends on how many are available since it will probably launch at year's end, and therefore will probably sell out).

End of 2007:
PS3: 20 million
Xbox 360: 19.5 million (emphasis on a very close race with Sony just edging MS out)
Revolution: 14 million

Ian Sane · « **Reply #48 on:** January 06, 2006, 07:31:14 AM »

"Ian, I often respect you for your sometimes valid points that go against the norm here, but what the hell? I think the DS has already proven that going the "non-gamer" route is not going to scare off the existing costumers from at least trying it"

I'm just saying that that has been a concern from day one so it's a way to justify an estimate of only 5 million in sales. In order to sell that low that's what probably would have to happen.

Avinash_Tyagi · « **Reply #49 on:** January 06, 2006, 07:35:43 AM »

Perhaps, but the success of the DS shows that it probably won't happen.

Ceric · « **Reply #50 on:** January 06, 2006, 11:40:13 AM »

I like to say that, being much like Ian it seems, bringing up points sometimes is more for the discussion then anything else. On that note. I was hoping someone else would have caught this but no one did.

Anyone remember the launch of the PS2? It was a time when DVD players could be consider expensive. In fact it is only relatively recently that you could buy a good DVD player that did Progressive scan straight for aoubt 30 bucks. The PS2 was a "cheap" dvd player and hey it could also play games. Well isn't that sweet.

Now does anyone here think that it's a pretty interesting coincident that Sony is releasing a new format with it's PS3 on the way. They did it in a way for th PSX, but more so for the PS2 and the PSP. As of now it is rumored that the PS3 will be able to do DVD's, HD-DVD, BluRay, and CD's. Now if they have full backward support then I can guarantee it will have everyone of those but maybe HD-DVD and it might have a UMD attachment to boot. That's not even mentioning how easy it might be to give it streaming ability.

So looking at it like that something that can play all those formats and in HD for around $600 wow thats a deal. Considering right now it costs $1000 dollars to get a HD-DVD player. Now you tell me that it has a large back catalog of games and new ones coming out be name brand developers. Woah...

That will get Sony market shares. That right there. As you can see even with the high price it has market appeal. If you could fit TiVo in it somehow you might not even need a anything else but a TV and a receiver. Ironically enough that will hit the non-gamer market. That's a lot of "value" for 600 bucks. That is until the players go down to $100 or less but by then they'll be in the lead because of there cheap movie boxes.

I can see it now, "This Blu-Ray movie has been PS3 enhanced"

MysticGohan24 · « **Reply #51 on:** January 06, 2006, 11:50:05 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
I like to say that, being much like Ian it seems, bringing up points sometimes is more for the discussion then anything else. On that note. I was hoping someone else would have caught this but no one did.

Anyone remember the launch of the PS2? It was a time when DVD players could be consider expensive. In fact it is only relatively recently that you could buy a good DVD player that did Progressive scan straight for aoubt 30 bucks. The PS2 was a "cheap" dvd player and hey it could also play games. Well isn't that sweet.

Now does anyone here think that it's a pretty interesting coincident that Sony is releasing a new format with it's PS3 on the way. They did it in a way for th PSX, but more so for the PS2 and the PSP. As of now it is rumored that the PS3 will be able to do DVD's, HD-DVD, BluRay, and CD's. Now if they have full backward support then I can guarantee it will have everyone of those but maybe HD-DVD and it might have a UMD attachment to boot. That's not even mentioning how easy it might be to give it streaming ability.

So looking at it like that something that can play all those formats and in HD for around $600 wow thats a deal. Considering right now it costs $1000 dollars to get a HD-DVD player. Now you tell me that it has a large back catalog of games and new ones coming out be name brand developers. Woah...

That will get Sony market shares. That right there. As you can see even with the high price it has market appeal. If you could fit TiVo in it somehow you might not even need a anything else but a TV and a receiver. Ironically enough that will hit the non-gamer market. That's a lot of "value" for 600 bucks. That is until the players go down to $100 or less but by then they'll be in the lead because of there cheap movie boxes.

I can see it now, "This Blu-Ray movie has been PS3 enhanced"

There's a problem with that, at the time the PS2 came out, DVD players have been on the market for several years, ( 1996 me thinks )
So DVD players weren't still at $500-$800 they once were. Blu Ray DVD isn't a neccessity or a proven technology, atleast not just yet, Also you're assuming that Blu ray can also play HD-DVD's, if you're assuming that, then I seriously doubt it will be capable, unless sony likes paying royalties to it's competitors. here's how it breaks down, HD-DVD players will only play HD-DVD's and DVD's, Blu ray can only play Blu-ray DVD's and DVD's, That's the problem! it's the wars of which format is better "ala, Beta max Vs. VHS" I know Blu-ray is expensive, but I'm not sure about HD-DVD. We'll see who wins in the end, last time sony tried, they got burned.

Ian Sane · « **Reply #52 on:** January 06, 2006, 11:56:52 AM »

I don't think it's really fair to compare Blu-Ray or HD-DVD in 2006 to DVDs in 2000. When the PS2 launched DVDs were fairly common already. It was a new thing but everyone knew they existed and the DVD/VHS ratio in stores was pretty equal. DVD was seen as the future by almost everyone. There was demand for a cheap DVD player like the PS2. I have never EVER seen a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD movie in my entire life. They're not in stores. The formats essentially don't exist, not yet anyway. So the demand for a cheap HD-DVD player is much smaller. With the PS2 Sony included a feature that they knew everyone already wanted. With the PS3 they have to sell the idea of a new video format. They have to create that demand so I don't think it could possibly have the same effect the PS2 DVD player did.

Plus I question these new formats period. Most people just switched to DVD five years ago or less. Why would the average person switch formats so soon? VHS lasted forever. I don't remember a time where tapes didn't exist. Throughout my whole childhood and teen years that was the standard. So why wouldn't DVDs last just as long? Mainstream standards aren't like consoles where people are willing to accept a totally different format every five years. Standards don't get replaced until they're REALLY dated. DVD offered a big jump from VHS. Aside from superior quality you also didn't have to rewind and you could jump to scenes and do a clean freeze frame and have extra features. It was a big deal. I don't think any of these new formats provide such a jump. They're like the PS3 and Xbox 360: a visual quality jump that most people will hardly notice and not much else.

Edit: MysticGohan24 beat me to a lot of the same points while I was typing this up.

jasonditz · « **Reply #53 on:** January 06, 2006, 12:17:05 PM »

hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

Ceric · « **Reply #54 on:** January 06, 2006, 12:46:19 PM »

As I've told many people. People love new technology. They just hate migrating to it. That what holds back the PC more then anything. The x86 architecture is relatively not nice to program for with todays advancements it keeps getting extended and when Intel finally made plans to give it the boot AMD extends it again and makes it impossible for the most part. Finish later

nemo_83 · « **Reply #55 on:** January 06, 2006, 01:31:19 PM »

I guess I can't say my figures are baseless, at least the second set as I did take into consideration the DS outselling all three consoles put together. I was just kind of saying my opinion or any other board member's opinion is as valuable as these analysts. The analyst's numbers are no more accurate than my first set, the overall numbers in my first set like the analysts would spell an overall industry that is flowering when in reality I don't believe that to be the case in the coming years. "The industry" as we know it can be summed up by 360 and PSP; the industry in 08 will be the one of DS and Revolution. There is a fake industry, Sony and 360, and there is the real industry, the one where they really sell things and make profits and function as a living company.

These analysts seem blind to the portable market which leaves the overall industry divided between five pieces of hardware in 08, this means less software to go around, smaller more concentrated console userbases, a less clear winner console sells wise, a more evenly divided console market, and ultimately gamers who own multiple units will have less money to spend on software so they will learn to do as the Nintendo fans do (since we usually own or at least play multiple consoles), people will only buy the brands they can trust, the high quality stuff like Zelda, Metroid, Resident Evil and so on.

Nintendo is convincing me that "the industry" as we once knew it is gone, it got up and left the auditorium shortly before the industry broke out into a fist fight on stage during the debate. With the DS Nintendo has too left the Jerry Springer show and gone out and found these lost buyers; they're coming back to the debate and they're bringing a revolution. If anyone will be the clear winner in five years it will be Nintendo, for one of two reasons if not both; DS will outsell the PSP and all three consoles combined, and the Revolution will be the only console to experience growth while Sony and MS bleed money over an exausted market.

The Omen · « **Reply #56 on:** January 06, 2006, 01:46:13 PM »

Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir. The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price. Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better. I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001. By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD. And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40. The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology. But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

BigJim · « **Reply #57 on:** January 06, 2006, 02:31:31 PM »

Not to mention, DVDs worked fine on regular TVs. It was an easy replacement for VHS once they finally reached the same price and continued to go down.

Any HD format on an SD TV is rather wasteful.

Just for the record, the CES just started. The first HD-DVDs are coming out in March with players beginning at $400-$500 USD.

The first Blu-Ray players will ship in April, for $1000. The PS3 at $400-ish creates an attractive price parity, but the masses don't necessarily care when they don't have the TVs to see it. (Unless they're technically ignorant and think they're watching HD when they're not. Believe it or not, this happens frequently.)

So I don't think BRD will quite have the impact as DVD had with PS2. At least not for the first few years. I mean, the 360 can output games in HD. Are 360 owners scrambling for new TVs?

MysticGohan24 · « **Reply #58 on:** January 06, 2006, 02:34:47 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: The Omen
Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir. The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price. Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better. I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001. By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD. And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40. The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology. But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

Agreed! But I see sony falling short on their projected sales for the success of the PS3, they are far too relying on the samething that really sold the PS2 to repeat itself with the PS3, and as I recall the PS2 had more DVD's being sold than there was software for quite sometime. Now, I seriously doubt this will be the case with the PS3, due to costs, of both the console and the Blu-Ray DVD's and software, since there will be a significant increase of cost. I doubt anyone who just recently got or has had a DVD player will wanna switch at a drop at the hat, seeing how'll we're looking at least a $1000 for a stand alone Blu-Ray DVD player, I do not know what the pricing may be for the HD-DVD player. But my Estimate would be more or less the same.

I just don't understand why not use the exisiting format "DVD" and make a High Def version, I know it's possible, seeing the space on a DVD can be tinkered with great results, how hard would it be to make new player's in HD? Seriously, the new formatts are unnesessary. Hell, DVD's are already in 480p, which is still pretty impressive, all there's left is 720p and 1080i, 1080p on the other hand is few and far inbetween, I give it a few more years before it starts being more common in HD TV set's.

MS is making a mistake with the HD-DVD addon, they haven't announced a price or a release date, and it's only to play Movies in HD. it's like MS has admitted that they should of gone with another formatt but they wanted to rush to get out first. It's like they wanted to make the mistakes Sega did, hmmmm... meh.

This gives Nintendo an advantage, they will have DVD built in, so no problem they can compete with the other's in having a formatt to watch DVD's, while the other's struggle to sell their features, let alone prove their price range is more than worth it, since 360's and from what dev's are hinting about PS3, nothing's gonna give the "WOW" factor this gen has, GFX wise. I turn to Rev to reinvent the wheel and make gaming fun once more, while other's just sit there and play pee knuckle

And Ian mentioned me

I feel so honored heh

jasonditz · « **Reply #59 on:** January 06, 2006, 03:06:22 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: The Omen
Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir. The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price. Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better. I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001. By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD. And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40. The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology. But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

And I knew a LOT of people in 2001-2002 who weren't even thinking of getting a DVD player. It wasn't until late 2002 to early 2003 when Best Buy et al stopped stocking VHS altogether that they began to consider it. It wasn't until mid-2004 when most of the rental places stopped carrying VHS for their new releases that they really started pricing DVD players.

In fact, I have a friend who was in town for a visit around Thanksgiving... and he'd just bought his first DVD player that week.

Ceric · « **Reply #60 on:** January 06, 2006, 04:14:05 PM »

Ok... Just for the record HD-DVD is the extension of the DVD standard. If you don't mind not having any extras you can get a Superbit DVD, the cases tend to have this Stainless still print on them, where they take that extra space and use it to better encode the movie with higher quality everything. I just like to mention at this point that picture wise most DVD's are already better than what you see at the movies themselves, no real artifacts. Yeah, like HDTV broadcast, IPv6, and DVD data disc for computers it will take a while to catch on. Though I'll probably get one with my next TV in like 6 years. Oh wait Holographic media is suppose to final come by then. Then it will terabytes. The actual raw film itself.

Artimus · « **Reply #61 on:** January 06, 2006, 06:44:23 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
Ok... Just for the record HD-DVD is the extension of the DVD standard. If you don't mind not having any extras you can get a Superbit DVD, the cases tend to have this Stainless still print on them, where they take that extra space and use it to better encode the movie with higher quality everything. I just like to mention at this point that picture wise most DVD's are already better than what you see at the movies themselves, no real artifacts. Yeah, like HDTV broadcast, IPv6, and DVD data disc for computers it will take a while to catch on. Though I'll probably get one with my next TV in like 6 years. Oh wait Holographic media is suppose to final come by then. Then it will terabytes. The actual raw film itself.

It's a very very rough extension, mainly in name only. You can buy all the Superbits you want but they're not High Definition. If you don't get HD cable then it's really pointless owning an HDTV (or if you have an XBOX) since DVDs look just as good on a really nice SDTV. That being said, a really good DVD transfer looks fantastic, and more isn't that necessary.

As for being better than the movies, that all depends. A LOT of DVDs have artifacts, compression, ghosting, etc. No DVD transfer is flawless, and few are truly fantastic. A ton of DVD transfers are muddy, cropped, edge enhanced or poor in other aspects. Film prints are always scratchy with hairs and blips, but the actual image is a hundred times that of a DVD. The detail and clarity (when projected right) outdoes any digital medium. The best digital camera (I'm talking professional ala Collateral) still can't capture quite the detail film can. It's also questionable whether that picture perfect clarity is really as good as the pure asthetic of a mechanical projector.

I agree about the next medium, though. I think HDDVD/Blu-Ray will never be what DVD is. It won't be until we're talking 99% complete transfers (and probably 75% digitally shot films) that another format can come. For the average person there's little reason to rush out and get better than DVD, their eye doesn't notice a difference.

Ceric · « **Reply #62 on:** January 07, 2006, 03:35:30 AM »

*shrug* Film is an analog medium and inheritantly going to have a better resolution than a digital medium. It's just how things are. You'll get no argument from me. But as general joe the consumer I'll notice that big old black spot of an artifact on a movie screen. I guess in the end it comes down to this. If you can see a movie on a good quality projector with a good quality copy then movies can easily win. If not DVD's tend to be a little more consistant.

mynameis · « **Reply #63 on:** January 08, 2006, 04:46:05 PM »

This is off the topic but I have something to say about all the fuss over the rumor that it'll be as powerful as a gamecube times 3. Well with the graphics in RE 4 i'll surely take a system that can produce something 3 times as powerful. I just saw a pic of a PS3 demo FF and the character looked no better than Leon or Ada(1 or 2 dd's?). So there. The controller and the preherials will rock anyways. i'm NoT with Stupid (Can't SPel)

ThePerm · « **Reply #64 on:** January 08, 2006, 07:00:00 PM »

actually the resolution of film does have its limits...its something like 1000 grains per milimeter or something

Renny · « **Reply #65 on:** January 09, 2006, 06:33:28 AM »

An article. Search your preferred web crawler for more results.

Requiem · « **Reply #66 on:** January 09, 2006, 08:53:39 AM »

Geezz.....I can't wait to veiw Holographic Disk technology. Watching DiscoveryHD already makes me drool.

I don't know about you, but clarity in a movie really breathes life into it. It makes it feel.....captivating (for lack of a better word). I was looking forward to HD-DVD or BluRay, but now.....HoloD sounds far better. Raw film with no compression.....drools.... It's like your favorite album loss-less with the channels seperated and the bass harmonized. If that can make you feel as if you were at the studio listening to them in person, imagine the video side of media. I want to see blades of grass as far as the eye can see.

P.S. Do you think a Holographic TV will come out to excentuate the media?

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #67 on:** January 09, 2006, 02:16:23 PM »

Well I can't see TOO far cuz I use glasses.

I find that high/consistent framerates make visual experiences more stomach-churning, so i prioritize that over increased resolution.

BiLdItUp1 · « **Reply #68 on:** January 09, 2006, 07:15:15 PM »

Any sort of holographic disc is both years away and pointless right now, because it hasn't mustered any support - IE it has no content, and without compelling content, the format has no reason to exist. And god, how many times have we heard the old holographic disc story? I remember the first announcements from the now defunct Constellation3D almost five years ago, and still we have nothing. It's a pipe dream fellas...for now.

Heck, even HD-DVD and Blu-Ray can be disposed of. Not enough people have HDTVs, and not many are content to watching on a usually-small computer monitor. DVD is gonna remain the standard until NTSC has been phased out for good, and that is still a long ways off. I'm sort of pissed off, too - DVD+/-R DL media will NEVER get cheap now, and damn it, I'm sick of SL already.

King of Twitch · « **Reply #69 on:** January 10, 2006, 10:02:19 PM »

#### Blu-Ray. I don't need more bonus extras telling me how visionary a director has or how early the cast had to get up every day to earn their multi-million dollar paychecks. The picture quality better be out of this world.

Oh yea, #### analysts too. Get a real job.

Artimus · « **Reply #70 on:** January 10, 2006, 11:02:19 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: MJRx9000
#### Blu-Ray. I don't need more bonus extras telling me how visionary a director has or how early the cast had to get up every day to earn their multi-million dollar paychecks. The picture quality better be out of this world.

No, but people who actually love movies would like to see every film have competant and detailed extras. Some people appreciate things such as film for far more than jealousy over a celebrity's salary.

Extras, however, have nothing to do with Blu-ray. With 3 and 4 disc sets there is no need for a new format. It's all about HD. As far as the picture qualitygoes , just rent T2: Ultimate Edition, pop the second disc into your PC and watch the HD Windows Media Player version to find out if its worth it.

Requiem · « **Reply #71 on:** January 11, 2006, 04:14:52 AM »

Didn't Maxwell make a working unit and disk for Holographic technology? Didn't they say it would out Fall of this year?

I hope it garners support, because even on regular tv's HoloD would look so much better than DVD. It's like I said before, even on a normal stereo, loseless music is far better than mp3. I'm no techie, but I'm sure it works the same way with movies.

And as big and cheap as monitors are getting these days, I wouldn't mind watching a movie in front of my computer or laptop....

Stimutacs Addict · « **Reply #72 on:** January 11, 2006, 04:20:12 AM »

i overheard some next-gen discussion last night that boiled down to everyone in the conversation wanted a Revolution and a used/lower priced Xbox360. I'm starting to believe that Nintendo is going to pull this off.

Strell · « **Reply #73 on:** January 11, 2006, 04:55:04 AM »

Man. I remember when people watched movies to, you know, enjoy the movie. Not comment on how clear it was and whether or not artifacts are around.

Requiem · « **Reply #74 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:01:59 AM »

Good point. Then again have you dug up an old VHS and tried to watch it? It starts to give you a headache about half way though. Honestly, clarity is more important than you think. People like to see individual blades of grass or the landscape scenery in movies like LOTR. It is more inviting to watch when you see bright greens, vivid red, and dark black. Something about it is like a breath of fresh air. Same thing goes with audio.

animecyberrat · « **Reply #75 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:08:19 AM »

sorry to burst your bubble requiem but most people watcha movie for the STORY now individual blades of grass, if thast what makes a good movie then you should be watching teh Discovery channel and NOT movies.

Requiem · « **Reply #76 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:15:49 AM »

"People like to see"

Where in ^^^^ does that say watch? And yes, I do watch the discovery channel. It's fantastic. It's amazing how life-like things really are. Could you imagine it when it looks exactly how it does in real-life? Looking at a crator hole or watch a cheetah attack a gazelle would be craziness.

And yes I still watch VHS movies. Still, the added clarity of video and sound are the best way to immerse the viewer. You can't argue that if the same movie where to be made in VHS and into HoloD/HD-DVD/BluRay, that you wouldn't have a better time watching and listening to the digital media.

animecyberrat · « **Reply #77 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:33:06 AM »

sure tahst why I boughta DVD player, but the step form DVD to HD DVD isnt that noticable to me so far. I did go back and rewatch the Star Wars movies I have now on DVD on my old tapes and they still look good and soudn good to me. Not as good as teh DVD sure but not so bad I cant enjoy the movie. Its not that much noticable unless you are LOOKING for things to notice. And damn you I hate teh discovery channel and thought taht was a good counter point. I will step off you now cuz I cant win this,.

Strell · « **Reply #78 on:** January 11, 2006, 10:08:27 AM »

Req-

My comment is more aimed at the general idea that people seem to act like anything non-HD and non-DVD and non-5 billion K MP3 files are just so unbelievable horrible that their eyes and ears will melt and fall off in they are exposed to that sort of thing.

I tend to take good attention to detail, but I don't have the cash to get a nice LCD tv right now, component cables, and a big receiver to preserve the signals. Just like I can't afford super awesome surround sound 7.1 channel speakers. But I can still enjoy music and movies for what they are, even in their low-quality formats.

But there are people out there that are on high horses all talking about how "omfG I CANNOT watch old TV anymore" and then moan about lower quality resolutions and things, and quite honestly I think if they were to be given a doubleblind test (where no one, the tester or the testee, knows the resolution/bit rate qualities/etc), they'd fail just as badly as someone who doesn't care.

You *could* stretch my comment into an argument against graphics whores, but I won't go quite that far as I've have enough internet arguments for the last couple of days.

The Omen · « **Reply #79 on:** January 11, 2006, 10:11:46 AM »

Quote
But there are people out there that are on high horses all talking about how "omfG I CANNOT watch old TV anymore" and then moan about lower quality resolutions and things, and quite honestly I think if they were to be given a doubleblind test (where no one, the tester or the testee, knows the resolution/bit rate qualities/etc), they'd fail just as badly as someone who doesn't care.

That's typically what someone says when they don't have/can't afford the technology. I can bet you right now I could tell the difference..easily. If you ever watched a sporting event or the Discovery channel in HD, it's not even close.

Strell · « **Reply #80 on:** January 11, 2006, 10:42:47 AM »

Actually when Conan showed his new HD format versus the old one, I thought the new one looked very washed out and showed me a lot of nothing.

I'm not sure how you can fault me for not owning it when I said specifically "I do not own this."

Besides, you're missing my point entirely, but ok.

mantidor · « **Reply #81 on:** January 11, 2006, 10:55:58 AM »

We've all watched HD, its called our PC monitor, and really, I can go back to see normal TV, yes it look sharper and all (Ive seen HDTV outside my PC monitor also) but seriously, this isnt B&W vs Color.

Requiem · « **Reply #82 on:** January 11, 2006, 12:05:08 PM »

The only HD programming that actually is noticeably (sp?) better is ESPN and discovery. All others fail. I'm not sure why, but you just can't tell the difference easily.

Watching football is madness. Seeing John Madden's face is a horrific experience. The texture....dear God the texture!

Anyway, dvd's are excellent by basically everyone's standard. I can't wait till they make HD movies though. I remember watching Spiderman 2 and seeing people getting thrown off a train, my thoughts were "Holy Sh!t!" The clarity of everything, the widescreen-ness of everything was just butter on the toast.

I can live without it if that's what your saying. It's definitely not worth the price of admissions comparative to DVD's way back when.

JonLeung · « **Reply #83 on:** January 11, 2006, 12:18:11 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Requiem
The only HD programming that actually is noticeably (sp?) better is ESPN and discovery. All others fail. I'm not sure why, but you just can't tell the difference easily.

I think it might be because they're filmed in HD. I don't know if that's the case everywhere but I think it's a given that you can't improve the resolution of something at low resolution to begin with. At least to me, it seems like there are a lot of programs on the supposedly HD channels that I get that have been around since before HD came into consumers' range.

While the increased space in the next disc format will improve possible quality/clarity, if there wasn't that high resolution to begin with it means naught. I would, however, like to see it used so that entire seasons of a TV show, or numerous movies within the same franchise, could be on a single disc. I think the idea of a season of a TV show in a box set is grand, but I would much rather have the whole season (or series, if it's over) conveniently on one disc.

If the future is about downloads, though, then even that would be for naught. I'd rather have it on no discs if I could still feasibly "have" it.

Ceric · « **Reply #84 on:** January 11, 2006, 02:19:05 PM »

Ok this is my peice and then I'm stepping out. I am one of the few people who is lucky enough to have scrouged the cash and had the planetary discount alignments enable them to have an HDTV, all be it not a very big one, and the Progressive Scan cables for the Gamecube. Even for non-progressive scan games the picture is so much clearer it's not even funny. It's like night and day. Theres just a better transfer of data. I am now co-oping and I had to leave my HDTV with my fiance and had gone back to a SDTV, I think that's the right term, playing Baten Kaitos I'm now having a hard time reading the text. It's an average sized standard TV. It just seems so fuzzy and not as vibrant. I've adjusted it to its optimum. In the end there are reasons to upgrade and the like. Even without new better formats for things that have adjustable medias they can take advantage of the change right out of the box. This is my experienc. When the Revolution comes out I could care less if it has the capability to do 720 or 1080p. As long is it lets me connect it to my HDTV with those better cords everything will be fine.

BigJim · « **Reply #85 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:28:47 PM »

Figured I'd throw this interesting link into the fire.

Anandtech.com

The pictures were taken at the CES. Pioneer was demonstrating the improvements of BRD over standard DVD (upconverted to 1080p) side by side... in general they seemed underwhelmed. This isn't about BRD, but HD in general.

HD wipes the floor with SDTV, because SDTV signal quality is bad from the start. But HD over DVD doesn't seem to have the same effect.

Seems like as long as you've got a clean component input and a progressive scan picture from a pristine digital source, you're getting 90% of the detail most people will see.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #86 on:** January 11, 2006, 09:49:10 PM »

Clean, progressive material is lovely. I just wish the industry dropped interlacing altogether. I just causes headaches for people coverting to and from interlaced material, and unnecesary quality loss.

31 Flavas · « **Reply #87 on:** January 12, 2006, 01:49:09 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: Strell

quite honestly I think if they were to be given a doubleblind test (where no one, the tester or the testee, knows the resolution/bit rate qualities/etc), they'd fail just as badly as someone who doesn't care.

I'll have to counter this too. Double-blind HD vs SD, there is no compairison. You can prove it yourself, just go to BestBuy or CircutCity or Tweeter or whatever and compair your self, most places are running HD signal into their TVs. HD vs SD is nothing like the audio side of things with Dolby vs DTS or, for that matter, bulk 12 gague lampcord vs $100 a foot "MONSTER" speaker wire which has been sprinkled with pixie dust, blessed by the pope, and of course "Gold plated".

Dirk Temporo · « **Reply #88 on:** January 12, 2006, 02:49:02 AM »

Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
HD wipes the floor with SDTV, because SDTV signal quality is bad from the start.

Okay, no? SDTV isn't bad. It just isn't HD. I mean, I run my monitor at 1024x768, but I wouldn't say that 640x480 or 800x600 is bad.

But as for those pictures... I've noticed the Blu-Ray seemed to be slightly, SLIGHTLY better. But the difference isn't noticeable enough for me to care about.

Artimus · « **Reply #89 on:** January 12, 2006, 03:30:53 AM »

See the new DVD formats up close and you'll get a better impression. It's the detail that makes the difference, and those pics are too small for detail.

NinGurl69 *huggles · « **Reply #90 on:** January 12, 2006, 03:33:10 AM »

Yeah, I wouldn't say EDTV 480p F-Zero GX on Cube is bad either.

It's simply everyday cable TV programming that's bad. Some networks like TNT still run only in mono audio. Absolutely horrid.

Renny · « **Reply #91 on:** January 12, 2006, 05:34:59 AM »

The DVD image in that pic has some serious red tint. Who designed this test, Disney?

Galford · « **Reply #92 on:** January 12, 2006, 05:48:23 AM »

It's interesting to see where this thread has gone...

HD-DVD and Blu-ray have many features built into them for future use. Both have increased disk space for 1080p movies and loss-less audio, both have far superior anti-pirating protection in place, and both have their own version of CD-i built into them. If you look into the history of HD-DVD vs Blu-ray, you will find that upgraded video quality was almost an afterthought. The next-gen media war is really about DRM and who will be controlling that DRM.

Nintendo can get away with releasing "non-gamer" games on the DS is third party support. The DS has ten times the third party support that the N64 and GC ever had. This allows Nintendo to do it's own thing while letting others fill in the gaps. Nintendo desperately needs third party support if Rev is to succeed.

BigJim · « **Reply #93 on:** January 12, 2006, 06:54:35 AM »

SDTV isn't exactly 640x480. Ordinary TV only gets 320 scan lines. Judging from the static typical TVs get, it's pretty ass as far as I'm concerned. A monitor is bound to look better since the connection is direct, the resolution is higher, the source is digital and only a few feet away.

The article discusses that the HD signal is visibly better than regular DVD. But they're underwhelmed overall. It's not as dramatic as the switch from SDTV to HDTV, and they're correct. I watch Lost in HD and just saw season 1 again on DVD. They hold their own pretty well.

Cap · « **Reply #94 on:** January 12, 2006, 07:11:24 AM »

http://www.revolutionreport.com/articles/read/254

a little bit off topic, but its an interview with ATI's Public Relations Manager for Consumer Products John Swinimer that some might find intersting (although not much is really said).

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #95 on:** January 12, 2006, 12:31:51 PM »

Yes it is a whole lot of nothing in that article. Hopefully there will be more coming out at GDC (if not DICE).

ThunderMonkey[BP] · « **Reply #96 on:** January 17, 2006, 05:54:22 PM »

Analysts are hacks.

Simple and to the point.

BlkPaladin · « **Reply #97 on:** January 21, 2006, 10:34:05 PM »

Well IGN's Q&A with NubbyTech did bring out a good gem. It seems that Nintendo has a booth at GDC this year, so there will more than likely be some hands on stuff, though it probally will be the tech demos since concidering this is Nintendo and they don't want to let anything out of the bag willingly until E3 gamewise.

Oh and the interview was better than the Ati and MadCatz one since they did more than say I can talk about that. They did list why they can't talk in depth about some thing because Nintendo's Third party hardware plan isn't totally laid out.

animecyberrat · « **Reply #98 on:** January 22, 2006, 05:06:56 AM »

Ok I have the answer plain and simple, if we all want the revolution to out sell the competitors here what WE do, cuz if we leave thinsg up to Nintendo they will fail they always eff up dont argue its the truth.,

What we can do is ten times better than what they can do, and damnit this is most likely going to be my last game systems and I want it to be on top of the competition so Ninty is King of the Hill again.

IF teh damn thing is going to be as cheap as the GC, then what we do is says crew all the idiots who cant make up thier mind based on HD or whatever, just BUY a Revolution for yor self, at launch preferabley, and then buy as many GOOD games as you can possibly afford, then when yo have the extra dough, or if you must use Christmas or B-Days as an excuse, go out and BUY one for your best friend, or your brother or sister or mom or nephew or who ever you care about that wont get one on thier own but will enjoy it if they were given one, then get them a couple games, and let them see for themselves how good or bad it is, that way Ninty gets the extra sale, and 3rd party games get sold, people will have hands on play with the thing and we get better support.

Just inviting people over to play GC or REv isnt going to be enough next gen, it didnt work much this gen anyways. We have to show people that it IS better and not TELL people its better. and I dont see why those of us who have the moeny or those of us who are willing to work extra cant do something like this to help out a little bit, 1 extra system and a couple extra games wont break any body, especialy if the system is as cheap as 129 or lower. If its more than that ok we run into problems but I think that if theres people here who care that much to get on web forums to discuss what Nintendo needs to do than you care enough to do what ever it takes. DOnt worry if teh person yo buy it for sells it latter on, Nintendo wont care neither will Midway or Namco, all they will see is the extra sales and the profits they make and that gives them reason to support the system.

Back durring ther Election I was a big part of the grass roots campaign and went out of my way to pursuade people who to vote for and why, it was hard but enough peopel made the right choice and our guy won, but with rev we are convincing people to check mark a name we are asking them to spend money, hey if its someone you REALLY want to play rev games with but they are stuborn and want a 360 or ps3 instead buy them one as a present and I ganruntee tehy will polay it for a while, guilt and all, then if they see how much fun it is they will change thier minds on getting the other thing, but you have to get them BEFORE they get thieor other system or before they get too into it.

Who's with me, lets prove to the world that Nintendo is the best and back them up 200%.

I have already gotten 2 DS systems for people I knew woudnt get them on their own, I would have done same with GC but only got 1 for friend and 1 for nephew, but I am goign to go all out and buy evs, or at least games, for as many people as I can afford or at least try and convinve them why its the best but I will do what ever I can to make Nintendo NUMBER ONE! Just cuz I dont get pasionate enough about stuff but this I care about right now more than ever.

odifiend · « **Reply #99 on:** January 22, 2006, 06:12:54 AM »

Did you just say CREW? It is Nintendo's responsibility to sell and promote their product. If the product is good enough, word of mouth should be enough to sell it without a door-to-door grassroots movement.

Quote
Originally posted by: animecyberrat
Just inviting people over to play GC or REv isnt going to be enough next gen, it didnt work much this gen anyways. We have to show people that it IS better and not TELL people its better. and I dont see why those of us who have the moeny or those of us who are willing to work extra cant do something like this to help out a little bit, 1 extra system and a couple extra games wont break any body, especialy if the system is as cheap as 129 or lower. If its more than that ok we run into problems but I think that if theres people here who care that much to get on web forums to discuss what Nintendo needs to do than you care enough to do what ever it takes. DOnt worry if teh person yo buy it for sells it latter on, Nintendo wont care neither will Midway or Namco, all they will see is the extra sales and the profits they make and that gives them reason to support the system.

It has not been proven to be better yet. I've been watching the Revolution since before its unveiling and I don't know that it is better and neither do you.
People don't get to have money by sinking 500+ dollars in extra game consoles for their friends so that Nintendo, a multibillion dollar company, can be promoted better. Yes, spread the word if the console is good but I think our 'job' as fans stops there until Nintendo puts us on payroll.

rat: You are right - checking a box for america's presidential candidate for the next four years is easier than buying a ~150 dollar game console because it doesn't cost any money. Wouldn't you agree that is pretty sad?

burninator1992 · « **Reply #100 on:** January 22, 2006, 06:17:56 AM »

hey odifiend this is kinda off topic but if you have acww can u plz post ur friend info so i can add you? mine is in my signature. thx.

KDR_11k · « **Reply #101 on:** January 22, 2006, 09:20:17 AM »

This is completely off topic and I think the way you're acting noone WANTS you on their friends list.

animecyberrat · « **Reply #102 on:** January 22, 2006, 09:22:08 AM »

ok well I wasnt being serious I was just having fun. I was just messing aroudn this morining making abunch of random psots, read my other threads nothign I said this morning was meant to make sense. so dont take it personal ok. But Um theres nothing wrong with buying as game system for your friends as presents, if youw ant Ill tell you when my birthday is so yu can buy me one will that make you feel better.

IceCold · « **Reply #103 on:** April 02, 2006, 08:00:58 PM »

Artimus · « **Reply #104 on:** April 02, 2006, 08:23:54 PM »

GameSpot has like the WORST AFD jokes ever. They're not even funny and usually they're rather rude to their readers.

wandering · « **Reply #105 on:** April 02, 2006, 08:24:56 PM »

Good news that unbiased analysts like "Miyamoto_Mojo" think the rev will come out on top.

edit: the Nintendo fan can't spell and the Sony one can? pfft.

wandering · « **Reply #106 on:** April 02, 2006, 08:35:36 PM »

Quote
IF teh damn thing is going to be as cheap as the GC, then what we do is says crew all the idiots who cant make up thier mind based on HD or whatever, just BUY a Revolution for yor self, at launch preferabley, and then buy as many GOOD games as you can possibly afford, then when yo have the extra dough, or if you must use Christmas or B-Days as an excuse, go out and BUY one for your best friend,

I had an idea a while back for a sort-of grassroots revoltion campaign. It involved making red spray-paint style revolution posters, putting them on the internet, and then having people print them out and post them and such.

I decided that, as much as I loved the products they provide, there were probably better things I could be doing than putting a lot of effort into a free marketing campaign for a very profitable business. *shrug*

BlackNMild2k1 · « **Reply #107 on:** April 02, 2006, 09:13:12 PM »

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold
Heh

obvioulsy a AF joke

Quote
"Sony has yet to come out of the pit stop after the first lap. Folks, when this race started naysayers said Nintendo would not have enough under the engine to compete with Microsoft and Sony. Trying to one up Nintendo like they did with them wanting to make a Revolution-style controller after it was revealed and 'oooohed' and 'aaaahed' over... Sony won't let anyone else have time in the light. Down with Sony. I am going to take a bat to my PS2. Nintendo is back in a big way, I think Nintendo will own them all. I believe they are on the path to domination once again. I think they finally are giving people what they want, and continuing to give them things they never thought of."

IceCold · « **Reply #108 on:** April 02, 2006, 09:25:37 PM »

Quote
obvioulsy a AF joke

Yeah, that's why I wrote "Heh"

:

WesDawg · « **Reply #109 on:** April 03, 2006, 11:15:31 AM »

Quote
It's a very very rough extension, mainly in name only. You can buy all the Superbits you want but they're not High Definition. If you don't get HD cable then it's really pointless owning an HDTV (or if you have an XBOX) since DVDs look just as good on a really nice SDTV. That being said, a really good DVD transfer looks fantastic, and more isn't that necessary.

I know this is a few pages late, but the main reason people are currently buying HD-TVs isn't decause they want higher resolution pictures. It's because they want widescreen. At least, I think that's the reason my parents and a few of their friends have gone out and bought them. I know that's not technically the definition of HD that the industry wants spread, but its the one they put out. The two are synonymous among the public now, and my parents are perfectly happy watching non-high res content in brilliant stretched out widescreen.

I think the most interesting thing about the games industry has been the way "pure power" hasn't really ever played a role in what sells. People want games in the end. A lot of games. A huge variety, and some of them even have to be good. That's what the NES, SNES, PS, PS2, and now the DS all have had in common. It's never been about DVD playback or cartridge formats (although the cartridge format directly effected what games were released for the N64). It's just about how much and what you can play on the system. Games drive console sales and console sales drive development. I firmly believe the same will take hold in this generation, and it really looks like Sony hasn't lost any of their support, so I really doubt their market share drops any time soon. Microsoft doesn't really have a whole lot to put them over the top in that sense.

The Omen · « **Reply #110 on:** April 04, 2006, 07:32:52 AM »

Quote
I know this is a few pages late, but the main reason people are currently buying HD-TVs isn't decause they want higher resolution pictures. It's because they want widescreen.

You are correct sir. Movie geeks like me must have widescreen. HD(HDMI input) is nice to have since the future almost forces us to upgrade at some point, but initially, this early on, I only care about widescreen for my DVDs.

Mario · « **Reply #111 on:** April 04, 2006, 07:47:50 AM »

Aren't analysts supposed to have their minds in the future? Applying current trends and assuming everything will stay the same is something some guy on the street could tell me. Whoops, just noticed I said the same thing on the first page.

That Gamespot article sucks too, but hey, funny joke!

Knoxxville · « **Reply #112 on:** April 09, 2006, 08:11:55 AM »

Well, screw the analysts is what I say....they didn't have anything nice to say about the DS either, and now it's tearing their beloved "be-all-end-all" PSP up! Sometimes I thinks these guys get paid off, like politicians or lobbyists or something.

News:

Author Topic: No Revolution loving from the analysts. (Read 25609 times)