Topic: Official Sales Thread

[BlackNMild2k1]

Has XBox One not released in Japan yet? or are they skipping Japan entirely this generation?

[Soren]

Has XBox One not released in Japan yet? or are they skipping Japan entirely this generation?

Xbone is launching on Sept. 2014 in Japan.

[BlackNMild2k1]

so they more or less gave up already...?
They are giving the PS4 a year headstart in it's home territory and even letting the all but complete failure of the Wii U make its mark before they launch?
Are they asking to be completely ignored in Japan or is there a hidden stash of Japanese games on the way and they are hoping to build a launch frenzy around that?

I ask only because I have not been paying attention to much of anything gaming, and certainly not for  things labeled Playstation or Xbox.

[MagicCow64]

so they more or less gave up already...?
They are giving the PS4 a year headstart in it's home territory and even letting the all but complete failure of the Wii U make its mark before they launch?
Are they asking to be completely ignored in Japan or is there a hidden stash of Japanese games on the way and they are hoping to build a launch frenzy around that?

I ask only because I have not been paying attention to much of anything gaming, and certainly not for  things labeled Playstation or Xbox.

Yeah, I think they put out a press release or interview saying they had prepped all sorts of Japanese content for it, but I also read something that indicated that they're not even trying for dedicated retail space in most stores because they know it's just a token effort to keep their foot in a chained door.

PS4 is tracking behind the WiiU in Japan, though, so the situation is all around pretty crummy looking.

[Ian Sane]

I don't think there is any point in aiming a console at Japan these days.  Cater to the Western market and if you can sell a few units in Japan as well, good for you.

Part of Nintendo's design decisions on the Wii and Wii U were based on restricting size, noise and energy consumption as these are apparently concerns in Japan.  So they're catering their console to the Japanese market and hoping it will also fly in the West.  That is really dumb.

But MS shouldn't even bother.  The Xbox brand has never been anything in Japan.  At least for Sony and Nintendo, it's their home market.

[Phil]

The console market is shrinking so much. Compare five years ago to now, and it's just incredible.

[NWR_insanolord]

So they're catering their console to the Japanese market and hoping it will also fly in the West.  That is really dumb.

Keep in mind that the most successful they've ever been in the console market came via that strategy.

[Enner]

NPD!
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/pc-and-xbox-one-exclusive-titanfall-is-the-top-selling-us-game-for-march/1100-6419066/

The full list, encompassing physical retail only, is below:

1. Titanfall (XBO, PC) | Electronic Arts
2. inFAMOUS Second Son (PS4) | Sony (Corp)
3. South Park: The Stick Of Truth (360, PS3, PC) | Ubisoft
4. Call Of Duty: Ghosts (360, PS4, PS3, XBO, NWU, PC) | Activision Blizzard (Corp)
5. Dark Souls II (PS3, 360) | Namco Bandai Games (Corp)
6. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (PS4, XBO, PS3, 360) | Konami Digital Ent.
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS4, PS3, XBO, PC) | Take 2 Interactive (Corp)
8. Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (PS3, PSV) | Square Enix Inc (Corp)
9. The LEGO Movie Videogame (360, PS3, 3DS, NWU, XBO, PS4, PSV) | Warner Bros. Interactive
10. Minecraft (360) | Microsoft (Corp)


The top-selling PC game overall was Diablo III: Reaper of Souls expansion.

And Yoshi's New Island was the "the tenth highest-selling SKU for March 2014, but did not rank in the top ten when looking at title-level sales."

[smallsharkbigbite]

So they're catering their console to the Japanese market and hoping it will also fly in the West.  That is really dumb.

Keep in mind that the most successful they've ever been in the console market came via that strategy.

I don't think I buy that.  The Wii was successful because of motion control plain and simple.  There was general interest worldwide on that. 


I've argued in the past Nintendo would have been better off making the Wii more powerful and releasing a Wii HD from the get-go.  I think it's hard to argue they shouldn't have done that now.  It would have been hard for 3rd parties to ignore a powerful system that sold 100M that was easy to cross port for.  But they did ignore the underpowered Wii last gen.  It crushed the Wii the last couple of years, and it's crushing the Wii U because Nintendo themselves can't produce enough content.  Not losing those third parties would lead to greater stability now. 

[smallsharkbigbite]

The console market is shrinking so much. Compare five years ago to now, and it's just incredible.

That's not really a fair comparison.  5 years ago, PS3/Xbox360 had undergone price cuts (pretty significant in case of PS3) and had great lineups.  A more valid comparison would be 7-8 years ago when the market was struggling with moving towards high priced consoles and not many exclusive games to move.  The PS3 struggled to sell it's first launch million for a couple of months.  Then it went on to sell >80M.  Sales generally improve greatly after the first official price cut and after a couple of holiday seasons.   

[NWR_insanolord]

The Wii was designed to go after Japan. They themselves have been saying that most of the time it's been out. They happened to hit on an idea that was also successful (and in some ways, more successful) in the west.

If Nintendo had had any inkling of the kind of sales monster they had on their hands, I'm sure they'd have bumped up the specs and sold it for $300, which, given how long the thing was impossible to find, probably wouldn't have been an issue. But that's like saying Microsoft should've fixed the red ring of death before launching the 360: you only see it once it's too late to do that.

[smallsharkbigbite]

The technical specs may have been focused on Japan, but that isn't why it was successful.  It was successful for motion control which in no way was a Japanese thing because it didn't even exist before.


It's not the same thing.  There were tons of industry analysts panning Nintendo for not going HD.  I remember being dissapointed when they opted for not HD and I'm sure many on this board were too.  People saw that coming from a mile away.  That was a told you so, not a hindsight is 20/20 situation. 

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo has said it was designed specifically to appeal to Japan. I'm going to go ahead and believe them over you. And I think you underestimate how big of a risk it looked like at the time. Nintendo played it conservative when they should've gone all in, sure, but it was by no means a sure thing.

[smallsharkbigbite]

It's not believing them or me.  They had their blue ocean strategy.  Motion controls were designed to be innovative and appeal to everybody and that's why the Wii was popular.  I don't see how there is an argument here. 


It's easy to say that it was risky but I just don't see how.  Every console Nintendo sold sold less than the previous at that point.  They were looking at a Wii U if they didn't take some risks.  Plus the difference between us and them is they had tried the Wii prior to releasing it.  Everybody that gets it in their hands immediately understands it and knew why it was going to be big.  If they played it and still didn't think it was going to be big, they are less bright than I give them credit for. 

[NWR_insanolord]

No matter how good you think something is before releasing it, it's insane to assume it's going to be a massive hit. Without Wii Sports catching on the way it did it was going to end up the way the Wii U is now. Nintendo is, and always has been, a very conservative company.

[smallsharkbigbite]

Here's the thing though.  How is it a bigger risk?  Put $100 more tech into it and charge $100 more.  The only risk is if it doesn't move at all then and I don't think anybody really thought it wouldn't move at all. 

[NWR_insanolord]

As I've said, if they had any real clue how massive the demand was going to be, they absolutely would've done it. There's believing it'd do well and then there's being confident enough in that to price it $100 more.

[smallsharkbigbite]

I don't think there is a difference.  If you think it's going to do well you price it accordingly.  After the Gamecube they probably weren't expecting much more than 25-30M, but they could've priced it $100 more and made that volume work.  Then if it becomes the bonanza it did, it's pure profit after that. 

I have a hard time using conservatism to justify bad decisions.  Nintendo has had 4 straight operating losses, lost all major third party support, and is on track to have the worst selling console since the Dreamcast.  I hope they don't conserve themselves into irrelevance in the market. 


Plus, you can say Nintendo can't have known how the market was going to go, but they have several people that make lots of $ that have that job description.  They are supposed to be good at knowing the markets wants and meeting them and having a good idea of how their console will sell.  Nobody said it was easy.  I'm a football fan, so I'll give you a football example.  Some analysts think the Texans are stupid if they pass on Johnny Manziel because they think he is a difference maker and the best player in the draft.  Other analysts think he has too many flaws and is a headcase and they wouldn't draft him at all.  Each team has a GM and it's their job to decide to either draft Johnny Manziel or not.  They'll either look like a genius or they'll get fired for that decision.  Nintendo is playing with real money here, they can't just shrug their shoulders and say their job is hard. 

[NWR_insanolord]

So you chose an example to illustrate your point in which there's a pretty high likelihood the people making a ton of money to predict these kinds of things will be wrong?

[smallsharkbigbite]

Most predictions are wrong to some extent.  It usually makes sense to pick an example on the extreme end to show the importance of getting an important decision right.  I could talk about the analysis in picking between two cars, but they are so similar now-a-days that slight buyers remorse is about the worse you are going to get by choosing the wrong one and nobody loses their job. 


The reality is people at Nintendo are paid to figure out the market and be smarter than us armchair quarterbacks.  They've made alot of poor decisions recently (letting Wii go too long, destroying third party support, pricing 3DS initially very high slowing growth, placing Wii U in bad competitive position for multitude of reasons, , not having first party games ready to support console launches, not working on network services, etc.).  Somebody at Nintendo makes at least 6 figures (probably 7) to see those are things they need to correct before they happen.  You can't expect them to be right 100% of the time, but they should see much of that coming and they shouldn't be so far off (2.8M vs. 9.0M) in their expectations of the market.  Most jobs have a level of accountability when you are failing at your job. 

[nickmitch]

Keep in mind, this is the same company that thought the Wii U's Gamepad was going to catch on.  It's clearly not that easy to predict how the market will go.

[smallsharkbigbite]

And the gamepad was late to the market and it was never going to catch on without compelling software which Nintendo do still hasn't provided. The last game they made DKC turned the screen off.

All I'm saying is the Wii U is a collection of decisions by Nintendo and the Wii U is failing for those decisions. Some of those decisions were difficult and some were easy. But at end of the day, Nintendo's management is responsible for the Wii U failing and they should have made different decisions to help it succeed.

I don't personally see that as a controversial stance. What's the alternative?  That business is just luck?  Management of the company has no bearing on performance?  Nobody at Apple should ever be commended, they just got lucky that the market went their way?  Nobody could have made a Nintendo console successful so we can't be dissapointed in decisions on the Wii U? 

Is that the counterargument?  I get reading the market is difficult, but the best companies do it very well. Nintendo is in a poor position now because of decisions they made (many of which were questioned at the time)

[nickmitch]

Business is risk.  Sometimes things take off, and some don't.  I'm sure someone at Nintendo was playing Wii Sports and thinking, "This is fun; I'll bet people will like it" then, a few years down the road said, the same things about Nintendoland and the Gamepad.  To that person, it might not be immediately clear ahead of time why one concept might take off but the other one wouldn't.  My point is that there's no way Nintendo could have known how popular the Wii was going to be.  Nobody could know that.  And the most certain fact Nintendo has at their disposal is how fun the thing they want to sell is, even if it's a potentially biased opinion.

[MagicCow64]

I also think it's wrong to discount the price point of the Wii as part of its phenom status. If the Wii had the same hardware level as the PS360 + motion controls, I have my doubts that it would have taken the world by storm to the extent that it did. I'm much more of the opinion that the big mistake with the Wii was leaving out the second gyro in the Wiimote.

[BlackNMild2k1]

They could have made a small bump in specs to allow 720p and a $50 price hike, but yes I think the more damaging aspect to the Wii's longevity was the Motion+ not being present and built in at launch. That stifled creativity pretty quickly for most, while a select few were forced to make it work anyway.

then in 2009 they should have bought the Kinect technology when it was offered to them and had it tweaked track the Wii Motes(2.0) & the body for a more immersive motion experience. Nintendo wasn't willing to double down on success by taking another step forward and push the concept to it's maturity, they instead decided to (half)step the other foot in a different direction, which makes the fact that they fell flat on their face all the more apparent.

I still think the gamepad could have been a stroke of genius as far as marketing and usability if Nintendo had been willing to go all in instead only dipping their toes in the water when it comes to functionality. They really need to purchase or work with an outside company to help them implement UX & UI ideas that just make the systems start to sell themselves outside of just games.
Something like a multi-person video chat system wide & cable box/DVR connectivity with universal remote functionality complete with TV Guide are just two examples that make the system useful to the ENTIRE family without even touching the gaming portion of the system.